MERCADOS DE FUTUROS en commodities agrarias

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1 MERCADOS DE FUTUROS en commodities agrarias EXPOAVIGA Barcelona 15 de abril de 2008 Philippe Pesqué 1 1. The future markets today All the future markets, around the world have increased their activity. 2 Animal - Expoaviga 15/04/2008 1

2 1. The future markets today Examples: Crude oil (x6,1 since 2001 and x2 since 2007) Gold (x4 since 2001 and x2 since 2007) Corn (x3,25 since 2006) Wheat (x4,5 since 2006) Soybeans(x3 since 2006) Soymeal (x2,5 since 2006) Sugar (x3,8 from 2004 to 2006) 3 1. The future markets today Whythisevolution? A)Demographic and financial liquidities growth B)Inflation Standard of living: changes in consumption behaviour Decreasing stocks of crude oil: development of bioenergies Wheather conditions Drop on US$ value C)Globalization: products are traded 24h/24h (Kuala Lumpur Paris Chicago Winnipeg Buenos aires, for example) 4 Animal - Expoaviga 15/04/2008 2

3 Crude oil 5 Gold 6 Animal - Expoaviga 15/04/2008 3

4 Corn 7 Wheat 8 Animal - Expoaviga 15/04/2008 4

5 Soybeans 9 Soymeal 10 Animal - Expoaviga 15/04/2008 5

6 Sugar The future markets today - Open interest - Volume Examples: Crude oil (OI x3,3 since 2003) Gold (OI x 5 since 2005) Corn (OI x 4,2 since 2003) Wheat (OI x 6,5 since 2003) Soybeans (OI x 3,3 since 2003 Soymeal (OI x 2,2 since 2005) Sugar (OI x 6 since 2003) 12 Animal - Expoaviga 15/04/2008 6

7 Crude oil 13 Gold 14 Animal - Expoaviga 15/04/2008 7

8 Corn 15 Wheat 16 Animal - Expoaviga 15/04/2008 8

9 Soybeans 17 Soymeal 18 Animal - Expoaviga 15/04/2008 9

10 Sugar The futures market s evolution Whysuchanevolution? New speculation (index speculation) vs Classical speculation (hedge funds and systemic funds) 20 Animal - Expoaviga 15/04/

11 2. The futures markets evolution The NEW SPECULATION Based on compound indices (many other commodities) A growing % of agricultural commodities The futures markets evolution 22 Animal - Expoaviga 15/04/

12 2. The futures markets evolution The NEW SPECULATION CFTC Strategy long etc 23 Corn 24 Animal - Expoaviga 15/04/

13 Wheat 25 Soybeans 26 Animal - Expoaviga 15/04/

14 Soymeal Consequences and prospects Increasing influence coming from financial markets (DOW JONES vs BEANS) 28 Animal - Expoaviga 15/04/

15 3. Consequences and prospects Soybeans Dowjones Consequences and prospects Changes in prices are overvalued by speculators Globalization: The increasing volatility and volume has consequences: Good for European markets: increasing confidence and fiability. Bad for American markets: to volatility can make go out many actors.(the cotton case) 30 Animal - Expoaviga 15/04/

16 3. Consequences and prospects Volumes records Commod. Date Lots Tons Harvest CORN 31/03/08 706M 89.70MT 332MT SOYB. 1/04/08 536M 73.0 MT 70.3MT WHEAT 27/03/08 236M 32.0 MT 56.0MT Consequences and prospects Open interest record Commod. Date Lots Tons Harvest % CORN (CBOT) JAN M 188.6MT 332MT(US) 57 SOYBEANS (CBOT) NOV M 80.2MT 70.3MT(US) 114 WHEAT (CBOT) MAY M 74.4MT 56MT(US) 133 WHEAT (EURONEXT) AUG M 4.6MT 35MT (FR) 12 COLZA (EURONEXT) FEB M 2.1MT 10MT(FR+ GE) Animal - Expoaviga 15/04/

17 MERCADOS DE FUTUROS en commodities agrarias EXPOAVIGA Barcelona 15 de abril de 2008 Philippe Pesqué 33 Animal - Expoaviga 15/04/