What is EXCELTUR : A non profit association of the 25 biggest & leading Spanish tourist companies

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Diego Pereyra Naranjo
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2 What is EXCELTUR : A non profit association of the 25 biggest & leading Spanish tourist companies Includes airlines, railways, cruise companies, city and resort hotels TTOO & TTAA They represent a turnover of over Million Over Jobs Direct Investments in 45 countries and commercial relations with over 175 countries. 80% of the Spanish Air transport Over 50% of the 4& 5 stars Hotel properties 50% Of internal tracvel distribution 2

3 VISION OF EXCELTUR That tourism becomes a national priority To Toreposition our industry so so tourists perceive in in Spain differential experiences That tourism keeps its its multipliying effect as as the main driver of ofthe spanish economy That spanish touristic destinations improve their socio-economic yield.. That Spain keeps its itsleadership settiing up up new tourism models and innovative standards That public private sectors improve their cooperation and governmental authorities improve their efficiency and competitiviness 3

touristic destinations improve their socio-economic yield.

4 WHICH ARE EXCELTUR's STRATEGIC AIMS? TWO MAIN OBJECTIVES Improve the Socio- economic perception of Tourism among spanish society Raise the levels of tourism competitiviness 4

5 Legal framework and Public sector Organizations Wholesalers and Retailers Transport Operators and Infrastructures Accomodation Leisure activities Design, Packaging and sale Transport Stay Entertainement Tourism value chain

Infrastructures Accomodation Leisure activities Design,

6 What have we done from Exceltur? 1. Carry out a quarterly Business Confidence Survey since 2002 Rellene el siguiente cuadro Size of the sample: businessmen Periodicity: Quarterly Subsectors surveyes -Lodging - Travel Agencies and Tour operators -Convention Bureau - Transportation - Car renting - Golf Fields - Ski resorts -Thematic Parks Managerial Opinión: *Sales *Price *Profits *Investments * Reservations * Employment * Costs Estructure * Rating of Tourist Policies Establecimiento Persona que rellena la encuesta Actividad: Alojamiento Trimestre de referencia/año: octubre-noviembre-diciembre 2003 Dirección Localidad / Código Postal / Provincia /Comunidad Autónoma / Teléfono: Fax Número medio de empleados del establecimiento en el año 1ª VENTAS Ha experimentado en el trimestre de referencia Previsto para el próximo trimestre en relación en relación con el mismo período del año con el mismo período del año anterior un: anterior un: Fuerte Leve Manteni- Leve Fuerte Fuerte Leve Manteni- Leve Fuerte El volumen de ventas aumento aumento miento caída caída aumento aumento miento caída caída Total 2ª FACTORES DETERMINANTES DE LAS VENTAS En relación con mi establecimiento, en el trimestre de referencia Situación Insuficie Variación Cambios Otra opción no contemplada de ncia Seleccione los factores que más han influido en la evolución de las ventas 3ª RESERVAS El número de reservas 4ª PRECIOS Los precios medios de venta 5ª EMPLEO El número medio de empleados ENCUESTA DE CLIMA TURÍSTICO DE EXCELTUR * Marque con una X la respuesta que usted considere más adecuada En mi establecimiento, la demanda Compete ncia En mi establecimiento, Costes regulació n Climatol ogía Ha experimentado en el trimestre de referencia en relación con el mismo período del año anterior un: Fuerte Leve Manteni- Leve Fuerte aumento aumento miento caída caída En mi establecimiento, Han experimentado en el trimestre de referencia en relación con el mismo período del año anterior un: Fuerte Leve Manteni- Leve Fuerte aumento aumento miento caída caída En mi establecimiento, capacida d Ninguno... Ha experimentado en el trimestre de referencia Previsto para el próximo trimestre en relación en relación con el mismo período del año con el mismo período del año anterior un: anterior un: Fuerte Leve Manteni- Leve Fuerte Fuerte Leve Manteni- Leve Fuerte aumento aumento miento caída caída aumento aumento miento caída caída 6

Managerial Opinión: *Sales *Price *Profits *Investments * Reservations * Employment * Costs Estructure * Rating of Tourist Policies Establecimiento Persona que rellena la encuesta Actividad:

7 2. The result is an advanced indicator of the progress of Spanish tourism: Tourist Bussines confidence Index (ICTUR) Forecasted sales + Reservations + Employment (% Positive opinions- % Negative opinions) EXCELTUR Tourist Bussines Confidence Index (ICTUR) II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II Source: Tourist Bussines Confidence Survey, EXCELTUR 30,6 7

80 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 -80-100 EXCELTUR Tourist Bussines Confidence Index (ICTUR) II III IV I II III IV I

8 3. Create a Tourist activity Indicator that shows the quarterly Tourist GDP growth Exceltur Tourist Synthetic Index (ISTE) 6,0 Exceltur Tourist Synthetic Index ISTE (Tourist GDP) versus Spanish GDP (Year on year growth rate) 4,0 2,0 0,0-2, Source:Exceltur and INE ISTE Spanish GDP 8

Index ISTE (Tourist GDP) versus Spanish GDP.

9 4. Forecast of the key variables that determine the evolution of the tourism in Spain. Forecasting models (euros) 700,0 680,0 660,0 640,0 620,0 600,0 580,0 Average revenue per foreign tourist (Foreign Tourist Revenues/Total Foreign Arrivals) 628,70 4,5 Exceltur 677,40 683,16 689,17 693,81 691,91 Forecast 10,0 667,50 7,7 7,5 5,0 641,30 0,0 0,9 0,7-0,3-5,0-3,5-6,1-10, Average revenue per foreign tourist (Left Scale) Year on year growth rate (Right scale) (%) Hotels Overnights (Year on year growth rate) Source: Exceltur with IET and Banco de España data. 10,0 5,0 Exceltur Forecast (%) 0,0-5, ,0 Source: Exceltur with INE data Total Spaniards Foreigners 9

683,16 689,17 693,81 691,91 Forecast 10,0 667,50 7,7 7,5 5,0 641,30 0,0 0,9 0,7-0,3-5,0-3,5-6,1-10,0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Average revenue per foreign tourist

10 Iniciativas 5. From the 2nd Quarter 2002 we publish a Tourist quarterly report that includes an analysis of both the official available information and the business information generated by Exceltur 10

11 6. Launched a series of Studies to measure the socioeconomic impact of Tourism at a regional scale. IMPACTUR Why do this studies arise? Due to the Public and spanish private sector interest in knowing how much does tourism represent for a region. Following the WTO s efforts to establish a methodological framework of calculation of the tourist impact as well as the work of the Spanish National Institute of Statistics (INE) in the case of Spain. 11

Due to the Public and spanish private sector interest in knowing how much does tourism represent for a region.

12 What are Impactur Studies? Similar to the TSA s, they are an estimation of the impact of the tourism activities on the main variables of the regional economy : Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Employment, Investment, Taxes, etc. A set of tourist indicators and comparable with the ones of the TSA elaborated by the INE for Spain 12

activities on the main variables of the regional economy : Gross Domestic Product

13 What purpose does IMPACTUR serve for? Improve the socioeconomic recognition of tourism at regional scale, showing the direct and indirect effects, in order to improve the awareness of society and helping to prioritize the neccesary public policies. Have a better knowledge of the level of integration and how does the tourist value chain work in order to improve public and private sector decisions. Evaluate and propose new tourism policies based on better indicators and information systems to improve the performance of local tourism 13

awareness of society and helping to prioritize the neccesary public policies.

14 What does IMPACTUR calculate? DIRECT EFFECTS (Retailer, restaurants, hotels taxis ) INDIRECT EFFECTS (farmer, drinks supplier, juridical advising ) INDUCED EFFECTS DO NOT INCLUDE IN IMPACTUR (children s school, buy of cars, buy of goods touristic sector workers ) 14

EFFECTS (farmer, drinks supplier, juridical advising ) INDUCED

15 How does IMPACTUR show? IMPACTUR INFORMATION SYSTEM Household Consumption Bussines Travels Public individual Consumption Domestic Non residents Consumption Foreigners Consumption Investment Public Colective Expenditure Internal Tourist Consumption Inbound Tourist Consumption Domestic Tourist Consumption Tourist Demand Imports Tourist GDP 15

Consumption Domestic Non residents Consumption Foreigners Consumption Investment

16 An example: Impactur Co. Valenciana results 14,1% Employment 13,8% GDP DIRECT EFFECTS +9,2% local GDP +9,6% Employment 16,5% Taxes 4,2% Investiment INDIRECT EFFECTS +4,6% local GDP +4,4% Employment INDUCED EFFECTS DO NOT INCLUDE IN IMPACTUR 16

17 An example: Impactur Co. Valenciana results COMUNIDAD VALENCIANA IMPACTUR STUDY Year 2005 Household Consumption Bussines Travels Public individual Consumption Domestic Non residents Consumption Foreigners Consumption Investment Public Colective Expenditure 53% % 72 36% % % % 670 Internal Tourist Consumption Inbound Tourist Consumption 54% % Domestic Tourist Consumption 126% Tourist Demand 141% Imports 49% Tourist GDP 100%

Consumption Domestic Non residents Consumption Foreigners Consumption Investment Public Colective Expenditure 53% 6.

18 Which are the main results of IMPACTUR by regions? CANARIAS Co. Valenc. Galicia ESPAÑA GDP 32,6% 13,8% 11,6% 11,4% EMPLOYMENT 37,3% 14,1% 13,3% 11,2% EXPORTATION SERVICES 90,9% 67,0% 68,6% 70,5% INVESTMENT 21,2% 4,2% 8,3% 5,0% 18

19 THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR ATTENTION 19

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