Calificación Soberana de Colombia

Transcripción

2 Agenda Definiciones de Calificaciones Perspectiva Regional Colombia: Fundamento y Perspectiva Colombia, Commodities y potencial de manufactura 2.

3 Definiciones: Qué es una calificación y qué no es Una calificación soberana de Standard & Poor s es: Una opinión actual de la calidad crediticia de un gobierno soberano, la cual incorpora la probabilidad de incumplimiento y estabilidad crediticia (y en algunos casos posibilidad de recuperación). Una opinión independiente, prospectiva, y comparable a nivel mundial. Un reflejo de fundamentales de mediano plazo que vé a través de ciclos económicos y políticos. Una calificación soberana de Standard & Poor s no es: Una medición de riesgo país. Una aseveración o recomendación de comprar, mantener o vender un instrumento específico o de decisión de inversión. Una medida de liquidez, volatilidad o valor de mercado de un instrumento financiero. 3.

4 Standard & Poor s Ratings 128 soberanos calificados a nivel mundial 27 soberanos calificados en Latinoamérica y el Caribe SD/D C CC CCC B BBB- BB+ BBB A AA AAA 4.

5 S&P Sovereign Ratings: Latin America (June 2012) Chile A+/AA Trinidad and Tobago A/A Aruba A-/A- Curacao A-/A- Bahamas BBB/BBB Brazil BBB/A- Mexico BBB/A- Peru BBB/BBB+ Barbados BBB-/BBB- Colombia BBB-/BBB+ Montserrat BBB-/BBB- Panama BBB-/BBB- Uruguay BBB-/BBB- Costa Rica BB/BB Guatemala BB/BB+ Bolivia BB-/BB- El Salvador BB-/BB- Paraguay BB-/BB- Suriname BB-/BB- Dominican Republic B+/B+ Honduras B+/B+ Venezuela B+/B+ Argentina B/B Ecuador B/B Grenada B-/B- Jamaica B-/B- Belize CCC-/CCC+ Source: Standard & Poor s Ratings Services. Outlook: Positive, Stable, Negative Rating: Foreign Currency / Local Currency Ratings as of June 7,

6 Latinoamérica frente a la inestabilidad financiera global América del Sur se ha beneficiado de Términos de Intercambio más favorables (caso contrario a Centroamérica) Mejora en la gestión económica ha contribuido a un anclaje de la estabilidad al reducir las vulnerabilidades principales. Los niveles de deuda externa han bajado y las debilidades fiscales se han moderado. Latinoamérica se mantiene vulnerable a una desaceleración mundial y a choques en el sector financiero. 6.

7 Base Year 2000=100 Mejora de Términos de Intercambio en la región Terms of Trade, f.o.b Venezuela Chile Ecuador Colombia Peru Latin America Source: CEPAL. 7.

8 Real GDP Growth (%) Perspectiva de menor crecimiento de la economía global Global Growth Outlook e 2012-f 2013-f Latin America China India Eurozone and UK United States Source: Standard & Poor's Ratings Services. 8.

9 Crecimiento menor a 4% en Latinoamérica (%) Latin American Real GDP-Weighted Growth (% chg, weighted by GDP share) f 2012f 2013f 2014f 4.2 LatAm Average real weighted GDP growth (3.7%) Source: Standard & Poor's Ratings Services. 9.

10 La calificación en moneda extranjera de Colombia es BBB-/Estable Factores de calificación más importantes Fortalezas: Políticas económicas de mercado que mantienen el crecimiento y confianza de los inversionistas. Mayor profundidad de los mercados de capital domésticos. Liquidez externa mejorando. Debilidades: Rigidez fiscal persistente. Mala infraestructura física. Redes criminales y guerrilleras. 10.

11 Desempeño económico de Colombia 16,000 ($US) GDP Per Capita ($US) Average ( ) 2012 F 2013 F 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Colombia Sovereign Median BBB Brazil Peru Panama India Source: Standard & Poor's Ratings Services. 11.

12 Desempeño Fiscal de Colombia 90 (%) Net GG Debt / GDP (%) Average ( ) 2012 F 2013 F Colombia Sovereign Median BBB Brazil Peru Panama India Source: Standard & Poor's Ratings Services. 12.

13 Desempeño externo de Colombia 40 (%) Net Public Sector External Debt / CAR (%) Average ( ) 2012 F 2013 F 20 0 (20) (40) (60) (80) (100) (120) Colombia Sovereign Median BBB Brazil Peru Panama India Source: Standard & Poor's Ratings Services. 13.

14 Dependencia de EUA en las expotaciones Colombia's Export Share to Select Markets (% of Total Exports) 60% Q1 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% China (PR, Mainland) Developing Asia European Union United States Canada Latin America Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistic Database 14.

15 MDS (Credit Default Swaps de Colombia) 15.

16 Desempeño de COP vs MXN, BRL y CLP desde 9/15/08 16.

17 Exportaciones Tradicionales de Colombia 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Fuente: DANE (café, carbón, petróleo y derivados, ferroníquel) hasta abril 17.

18 Acuerdo de Complementación Económica (ACE 55) Balanza Comercial Brasil/México Balanza Comercial Autos y Autopartes Brasil/México 4,000 1,500 3,000 1,000 2, , ,000-1,000-1,500-2,000-2,000 Fuente: ALADI 18.

19 Se abre una oportunidad para Colombia Saca Renault producción de Brasil Reforma (21-Mar-2012).- La armadora Renault dejará de fabricar los modelos Sandero y Stepway en Brasil debido al encarecimiento de la producción en aquel país, por lo que ahora los fabricará y exportará desde Colombia La nueva camioneta Duster también se fabricará en Colombia y la marca espera vender como mínimo 6 mil durante este año en nuestro País. Durante el lanzamiento del nuevo modelo Duster en México, Bruno Pasquet, director general de Renault, explicó que la compañía comenzará a fabricar y exportar los modelos Sandero y Stepway desde la planta de Renault Sofasa en Envigado, Colombia, a partir de mayo. No sería la primera vez que Colombia exportara muchos automóviles pero ahora con NAFTA 1,200 1, Exportación colombiana de automóviles Fuente: DANE. Montos en millones de dólares 19.

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