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1 ISSN Nº 28 Enero /January 2012 Y UNISCI ASIA CENTRAL (Antonio Alonso Marcos, coord.) Stephen Blank Rethinking Central Asia and its Security Issues UNIDAD DE INVESTIGACIÓN SOBRE SEGURIDAD Y COOPERACIÓN INTERNACIONAL RESEARCH UNIT ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND COOPERATION Javier Morales Ángel Gómez Enrique Palazuelos y Rafael Fernández Dmitri A. Titoff, Caitlin Alyce Buckley,Dmitry Novak, Richard Weitz Antonio Alonso EEUU / USA David García Asia Central en la política exterior rusa El factor militar en Asia Central Kazajstán: Rentismo petrolero en evolución Assessing Kazakhstan s Proposal to Host a Nuclear Fuel Bank Hizb Ut Tahrir en Asia Central a comienzos del siglo XXI La Doctrina Obama, la teoría de la Guerra Limitada y la nueva política exterior de EEUU: hacia una política neo-nixoniana? ASIA-PACIFIC / ASIA-PACÍFICO Eric Pardo Northern Territories and Japan-Russia Relations: Will the Knot ever Untie? PACIFISM / PACIFISMO José Antonio Pena e Iván Medina New Social Movements, International Security and the New Social Protests. The Rise and Fall of Pacifism n TERRORISM AND HUMAN RIGHTS / TERRORISMO Y DERECHOS HUMANOS Salma Yusuf The Resilience of the Human Rights Norm in an Era of Counter-Terrorism INTELIGENCIA / INTELLIGENCE José Antonio Sainz de la Peña Inteligencia Táctica Disponible on-line: Available on-line: info/unisci SANTA SEDE / HOLY SEE Antonio Alonso y Carlos Corral La educación para la paz: Una asignatura pendiente. Las aportaciones de Benedicto XVI

2 UNISCI Discussion Papers UNISCI Discussion Papers (ISSN ) es una revista científica de acceso abierto, con sistema de evaluación por pares, sobre Relaciones Internacionales y Seguridad; ambas entendidas en sentido amplio y desde un enfoque multidimensional, abierto a diferentes perspectivas teóricas. La revista es publicada tres veces al año enero, mayo y octubre por la Unidad de Investigación sobre Seguridad y Cooperación Internacional (UNISCI) de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid. Todos los números están disponibles de forma gratuita en nuestra página web El Comité de Redacción acepta colaboraciones en forma de artículos o recensiones de libros. Pueden enviarnos sus propuestas según se indica en las Instrucciones para autores que figuran al final de este número, así como en nuestra página web. UNISCI Discussion Papers (ISSN ) is an open access, peer-reviewed scientific journal on International Relations and Security; both understood in a broad sense and from a multidimensional approach, open to different theoretical perspectives. The journal is published three times per year (January, May and October) by the Research Unit on International Security and Cooperation (UNISCI), Complutense University of Madrid. All the issues are available free of charge at our website The Editorial Committee accepts contributions of articles or book reviews. Proposals may be sent as indicated in the Instructions for Authors that can be found at the back of this issue, as well as at our website. COMITÉ CIENTÍFICO / ADVISORY BOARD Mustafa Aydin Professor of International Relations, Kadir Has University Rector Mely Caballero-Anthony Director of the Non-Traditional Security Center, Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore Terrence Guay Professor of International Business, Pennsylvania State University Tai Hwan Lee Senior Fellow, The Sejong Institute, Seoul Li Nan Senior Research Fellow, U.S. Naval War College Haksoon Paik Director, Center for North Korean Studies, The Sejong Institute, Seoul John Ravenhill Professor of International Relations The Australian National University Sten Rynning Associate Professor of International Relations and Security Studies, University of Southern Denmark Abdelkader Sid Ahmed Professor of International Economics, Université Paris-Sorbonne Dan Tschirgi Professor of Political Science, The American University in Cairo Romualdo Bermejo Chair in Public International Law, University of León Ralph Emmers Associate Professor of International Relations, Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore Mendo Castro Henriques Professor, Portuguese Catholic University and former Director for Research, National Defence Institute Bobo Lo Former Director, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House, London Arvind Kumar Head of the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal University Alessandro Politi Strategic & OSINT Analyst Former WEU Researcher Reinhardt Rummel Professor of International Security, Munich University Former Director of Programmes, SWP Berlin Leonard C. Sebastian Associate Professor of International Relations, Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore Terry Terriff Chair, Centre for Military and Strategic Studies, University of Calgary Kostas Ifantis Professor of International Relations, Athens University

3 Juan Emilio Cheyre Director, Center for International Studies, Catholic University of Chile Massimo de Leonardis Director of the Department of Political Science, Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, Milan COMITÉ DE REDACCIÓN / EDITORIAL COMMITTEE DIRECTOR / EDITOR Antonio Marquina Chair in Security and Cooperation in International Relations, Complutense University of Madrid Carlos Corral Chair in Religious Forces in International Society (Emeritus), Complutense University of Madrid José Antonio Sainz de la Peña Colonel, Spanish Army (Ret.) Senior Researcher, UNISCI Javier de Quinto Professor of International Economics, CEU San Pablo University, Madrid Javier Ignacio García Professor of International Relations, SEK University, Segovia Antonio Alonso Professor of International Relations, CEU San Pablo University, Madrid Alberto Priego UNISCI Research Fellow, Complutense University of Madrid Rubén Herrero de Castro Professor of International Relations, Complutense University of Madrid VOCALES / ASSOCIATE EDITORS Santiago Petschen Chair in Religious Forces in International Society, Complutense University of Madrid Carlos Echeverría Professor of International Relations, UNED University, Madrid David García Professor of International Relations, Complutense University of Madrid Belén Lara Arms Control and Disarmament Expert, Senior Researcher, UNISCI Xira Ruiz UNISCI Research Fellow, Complutense University of Madrid Gracia Abad UNISCI Research Fellow, Complutense University of Madrid SECRETARIO DE REDACCIÓN / EDITORIAL COORDINATOR Eric Pardo Sauvageot AYUDANTES DE REDACCIÓN / EDITORIAL ASSISTANTS Gustavo Díaz, Javier Morales, Gloria Inés Ospina, María-Ángeles Alaminos Hervás, Beatriz Tomé, María Ángeles Muñoz, Nieva Machín DIRECTORIOS Y BASES DE DATOS / ABSTRACTING & INDEXING CATÁLOGO LATINDEX COLUMBIA INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS ONLINE (CIAO) CSA WORLDWIDE POLITICAL SCIENCE ABSTRACTS DIALNET DIFUSIÓN Y CALIDAD EDITORIAL DE LAS REVISTAS ESPAÑOLAS DE HUMANIDADES Y CIENCIAS SOCIALES Y JURÍDICAS (DICE), CSIC DIRECTORY OF OPEN ACCESS JOURNALS (DOAJ) GOOGLE SCHOLAR HOMELAND SECURITY DIGITAL LIBRARY INDEX ISLAMICUS INTERNATIONAL GOVERNANCE LEADERS AND ORGANIZATIONS ONLINE (IGLOO) LIBRARY INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL SCIENCE ABSTRACTS INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND SECURITY NETWORK (ISN) PUBLISHING HOUSE INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND COUNTER-TERRORISM REFERENCE CENTER ISOC CIENCIAS POLÍTICAS Y SOCIOLOGÍA, CSIC LANCASTER INDEX TO DEFENCE & INTERNATIONAL SECURITY LITERATURE NATIONAL 3

4 INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH ADVANCEMENT (NIRA) POLICY RESEARCH WATCH ONLINE COMPUTER LIBRARY CENTER (OCLC) PORTAL DE REVISTAS CIENTÍFICAS DE LA UNIVERSIDAD COMPLUTENSE DE MADRID RED DE REVISTAS CIENTÍFICAS DE AMÉRICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE, ESPAÑA Y PORTUGAL (REDALYC) SCIRUS ULRICH S PERIODICALS DIRECTORY WORLDCAT. UNISCI, 2012 Departamento de Estudios Internacionales, Facultad de Ciencias Políticas y Sociología, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Campus de Somosaguas, Madrid, Spain / Web: Tel.: (+ 34) / Fax: (+ 34) ISSN: El contenido de la revista puede ser citado, distribuido o empleado para fines docentes siempre que se mencione debidamente su fuente. No obstante, es necesario el permiso del Comité de Redacción para republicar un artículo, debiendo además indicarse claramente su aparición previa en UNISCI Discussion Papers. All materials can be freely cited, distributed or used for teaching purposes, provided that their original source is properly mentioned. However, those wishing to republish an article must contact the Editorial Committee for permission; in that case, its previous publication in UNISCI Discussion Papers must be clearly stated. 4

5 ÍNDICE / CONTENTS Antonio Marquina Nota editorial/ Editor s Note 7 ASIA CENTRAL (Antonio Alonso Marcos, coord.) Stephen Blank Rethinking Central Asia and its Security Issues 9 Javier Morales Asia Central en la política exterior rusa 35 Ángel Gómez El factor militar en Asia Central 45 Enrique Palazuelos y Rafael Fernández Kazajstán: Rentismo petrolero en evolución 81 Dmitri A. Titoff, Caitlin Alyce Buckley, Dmitry Novak, Richard Weitz Assessing Kazakhstan s Proposal to Host a Nuclear Fuel Bank 99 Antonio Alonso Hizb Ut Tahrir en Asia Central a comienzos del siglo XXI 127 EEUU / USA David García La Doctrina Obama, la teoría de la Guerra Limitada y la nueva política exterior de EEUU: hacia una política neo-nixoniana? 145 ASIA-PACÍFIC / ASIA-PACÍFICO Eric Pardo Northern Territories and Japan-Russia Relations: Will the Knot ever Untie? 155 PACIFISM / PACIFISMO José Antonio Pena e Iván Medina New Social Movements, International Security, and the New Social Protests. The Rise and Fall of Pacifism 171 5

6 TERRORISM AND HUMAN RIGHTS / TERRORISMO Y DERECHOS HUMANOS Salma Yusuf The Resilience of the Human Rights Norm in an Era of Counter-Terrorism 183 INTELIGENCIA / INTELLIGENCE José Antonio Sainz de la Peña Inteligencia Táctica 213 SANTA SEDE / HOLY SEE Antonio Alonso y Carlos Corral La educación para la paz: Una asignatura pendiente. Las aportaciones de Benedicto XVI 233 NOVEDADES / LATEST NEWS 257 Sobre UNISCI / About UNISCI 259 Instrucciones para los autores 263 Instructions to authors 267 6

7 NOTA EDITORIAL / EDITOR S NOTE Antonio Marquina 1 Director de UNISCI Este número de la revista está en buena parte centrado en la situación de Asia Central, dada la creciente importancia de una zona bastante desconocida en España. La zona está llegando a ser una zona de importancia geoestratégica creciente debido no solo ya a sus recursos sino a otros factores que en la última década han propiciado su renovada importancia: la dificultad de estabilización de Afganistán y la próxima salida de las fuerzas de la OTAN comprometidas en ISAF, el papel de Rusia y los intereses de China, India e Irán. En este sentido, el artículo de Stephen Blank centra de forma adecuada el gran juego renovado que se ha desarrollado y se está desarrollando en la zona, tras la fracaso de la estrategia estadounidense diseñada durante la primera administración Bush. El artículo de Javier Morales explica, a su vez, de forma bastante convincente las políticas rusas hacia Asia Central. Es importante resaltar que, en este juego, la Unión Europea ha acabado siendo un actor menor. La Unión Europea perdió el tren en los años noventa, debido sobre todo a una visión del sistema internacional y de sus posibilidades de conformación del mismo, que superaban con mucho sus posibilidades reales en un sistema internacional muy mal percibido en su evolución y consecuencias y con un empecinamiento en políticas y planteamientos que le han llevado a la marginalidad. Curiosamente nadie se ha hecho responsable de auténticos fiascos en esta como en otras cuestiones internacionales y de seguridad mal planteadas que han acabado afectando a la estatura internacional y a la seguridad de la Unión Europea. En este juego y en estas rivalidades, las Fuerzas Armadas de las cinco repúblicas de Asia Central tienen también un papel marginal y no están en condiciones de jugar un papel constructivo en la región, como adecuadamente muestra el artículo de Ángel Gómez de Ágreda. Esta cuestión muestra de forma fehaciente el relativo vacío en que se mueven las potencias regionales y las oportunidades para su competición. Dos artículos se centran de forma especial en Kazajstán, su sector petrolero y la peculiaridad que arrastra este Estado al seguir sin disponer de los resortes que permiten controlar la producción y la exportación de sus recursos petrolíferos que siguen en manos extranjeras. En otro orden, Kazajstán es un actor fundamental en el mercado del uranio y ha ofertado establecer un banco de combustible nuclear en su territorio. El artículo se detiene en el papel de Kazajstán en el control de armamentos y la observancia del tratado de noproliferación, los controles de exportación, el papel del ministerio de Industria y nuevas tecnologías, el papel de la empresa estatal KazAtomProm, así como el papel de otros organismos estatales. 1 Antonio Marquina Barrio es Catedrático de Seguridad y Cooperación en las Relaciones Internacionales de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, y Director de UNISCI. Sus principales líneas de investigación son la seguridad en Europa, el Mediterráneo y Asia-Pacífico, y el control de armamentos. Dirección: Departamento de Estudios Internacionales, Facultad de Ciencias Políticas y Sociología, UCM, Campus de Somosaguas, Madrid, España. 7

8 Finalmente un artículo de Antonio Alonso subraya el papel del movimiento islamista Hizb ut Tahrir en Asia Central y su potencial de desestabilización interna de la zona. Otros artículos incluidos en este número tienen un interés más puntual en función de debates, propuestas o movimientos diplomáticos de los últimos meses. En este sentido la revista recoge un análisis de la doctrina subyacente en un documento importante hecho público por la administración Obama en enero de 2012: Sustaining Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defence ; un estudio sobre la situación actual de las negociaciones entre Rusia y Japón sobre las islas Kuriles, dado el interés por establecer nuevos equilibrios en el nordeste de Asia; un análisis del papel de las nuevas protestas ciudadanas y su diferenciación con otros movimientos anteriores que trataban de transformar las relaciones internacionales y de seguridad; el debate abierto sobre las tensiones entre lucha antiterrorista y el respeto de los derechos humanos; y, finalmente, el mensaje de Benedicto XVI para la XLV Jornada Mundial de la Paz. En otro orden, el artículo de José Antonio Sainz de la Peña sobre inteligencia táctica sigue la línea de publicaciones que la revista ha mantenido sobre este tema, en orden a aportar materiales para el estudio de las cuestiones de inteligencia y su papel en las relaciones internacionales. Quede nuestro agradecimiento a los autores, de forma especial al profesor Antonio Alonso, coordinador del bloque de estudios sobre Asia Central, y al equipo UNISCI, de forma especial a Eric Pardo, que ha hecho posible la maquetación de este número. 8

9 RETHINKING CENTRAL ASIA AND ITS SECURITY ISSUES Stephen Blank 1 Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College Abstract: During the 20 years of independence, security environment in Central Asia has been changing drastically, with changes in strategies and alliances. This region is acquiring day by day more geostrategic importance due, among other things, to the situation in Afghanistan, to their natural resources, hydrocarbons specially, and their localization among Europe and Asia, Russia and China, India and Iran. This fight for gaining the complete influence in the region is known with the term new great game. Keywords: Central Asia; new great game; multivector diplomacy; relationship with US. Resumen: En estos 20 años de independencia, la situación de seguridad en Asia Central ha ido cambiando drásticamente, con los consiguientes cambios de estrategias y alianzas. Esta región adquiere cada vez más importancia geoestratégica debido, entre otras razones, a la situación en Afganistán, a sus riquezas naturales, especialmente sus hidrocarburos, y por su localización a medio camino entre Europa y Asia, entre Rusia, China, India e Irán. Esta lucha por hacerse con la influencia en la región es lo que se conoce como el nuevo gran juego. Palabras clave: Asia Central, nuevo gran juego, diplomacia multivector relaciones con Estados Unidos. Copyright UNISCI, Las opiniones expresadas en estos artículos son propias de sus autores, y no reflejan necesariamente la opinión de UNISCI. The views expressed in these articles are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNISCI. 1 Stephen Blank es profesor en el Strategic Studies Institute US Army War Collage en Pensilvania. Dirección: Carlisle Barracks, PA 17013, USA. 9

10 1. Introduction According to the American expert on Central Asia, Daniel Burghart, For too long, Central Asia has been defined in terms of what others sought to gain there, and to a certain degree that is still the case. What is different is that since 1991, the region has begun to define itself, both in terms of national identities that it never had before, and a regional identity that it is trying to create. 2 Burghart s observation transcends the classical imperialism that sought to retain control over Central Asia s lands or the continuing effort of the major players in the so called new great game to exercise a kind of sphere of influence over Central Asia. It denotes foreign powers struggle for influence or hegemony over the region while each Central Asian state struggles to assert its own destiny. But it also applies to foreign specialists and policymakers efforts to define the region in terms of paradigms adapted from Western and especially American social science. Policymakers perceptions may overlap with academic and expert insights but they also have their own distinct resonance and implications. Due to the escalation of the war in Afghanistan since 2008 the stakes involved in the effort to direct Central Asia s destiny have grown. Though Ahmed Rashid may exaggerate that importance somewhat, from the standpoint of regional governments this is actually an understatement because they believe their fate is linked with that of Afghanistan. The consequences of state failure in any single country are unimaginable. At stake in Afghanistan is not just the future of President Hamid Karzai and the Afghan people yearning for stability, development, and education but also the entire global alliance that is trying to keep Afghanistan together. At stake are the futures of the United Nations, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the European Union, and of course America s own power and prestige. It is difficult to imagine how NATO could survive as the West s leading alliance if the Taleban are not defeated in Afghanistan or if Bin Laden remains at large indefinitely. 3 Yet Europe clearly is tiring of Afghanistan and ready to leave without completing the mission, continuing the long-term failure of European security organizations to grasp what it takes to stabilize Afghanistan and Central Asia or to commit sufficient resources to that task. 4 Even as EU involvement in Central Asia grows, particularly to influence the future construction of gas and possibly oil pipelines, its members remain unwilling to invest seriously in regional security. But Europe s seeming retreat masks this deepening interest of the EU in realizing Burghart s point, i.e. defining the region in terms of what it offers outsiders like the EU. As a 2009 study of the EU program of action in Central Asia observes, 2 Burghart, Dan: Khans, Tsars, and Emperors: The Changing Nature of Central Asia s Security Spectrum, en Edstrom, Bert (ed.) (2009): Security and Development in Asia: New Threats and Challenges in the Post-Soviet Era, Stockholm, Institute for Development and Policy, p Rashid, Ahmed (2009): Descent Into Chaos: The US and the Disaster in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia, 2 nd ed. London, Viking Penguin Books, p. xxxix. 4 Bumiller, Elizabeth: Gates Faults U.S. Allies on Afghan War, New York Times, 11 th March of 2011, at 10

11 that presence is based on self-interest and focused on gas. 5 Despite the rhetoric of the EU s normative power or responsibility in world affairs, the real interest is in security or energy access, a fact not lost on Central Asian governments. Indeed, recent accounts from Europe indicate that a considerable part of the EU s contribution to Uzbek charities and presumably to other Central Asian programs has gone essentially into the hands of corrupt elites with Brussels looking the other way. 6 Thus the EU s rapprochement with Uzbekistan advances despite the absence of progress there on human rights. 7 Indeed, during when the EU shunned Uzbekistan for its appalling human rights record and the Andizhan massacre of 2005 and imposed sanctions upon it, Germany continued secretly paying it million Euros a year to lease the base at Termez. 8 Likewise, the EU underinvested in and relatively speaking neglected both Central Asia and Afghanistan until 2007 and the consequences of excessive dependence on Russia for gas manifested themselves. 9 Nor is the EU s behavior the only confirmation of Burghart s point. Indeed, we can go deeper into the implications of Burghart s remarks by examining Emilian Kavalski s recent analysis of Central Asia. He observes that the breakup of the Soviet Union changed the meaning of this region s independence not its geography. Central Asia s significance in world politics is a matter of contestation, debate, and struggle with immense stakes. As Kavalski notes, whereas a decade or two ago a critical question was the degree to which Central Asia would be a receiver of Western ideas and values, we now debate how fast Asian values will spread. And this debate coincides with the advent of the new great game which denotes not just the major powers geopolitical perceptions relating to Central Asia but also the simultaneous proliferation of actors from within the region. Central Asia and its governments are simultaneously subjects and objects of world politics and of efforts to conceptualize those politics. 10 Nonetheless the use of this term great game garners opprobrium because supposedly we are no longer playing those Kiplinesque kinds of games or conducting such politics when the actual evidence that this is indeed the case is overwhelming. So to add to the confusion we face in Central Asia we have saddled ourselves, quite deliberately with another layer of hypocrisy, obfuscation and delusion. One need only invoke the repeated statements of governments across the globe that they seek only mutually profitable partnerships with each other there. For example, Indeed, US officials like Michael McFaul, the National Security Council Senior Director on Russia, contend that the events in 5 Dennison, Michael: The EU and Central Asia: Commercializing the Energy Relationship, EUCAM Working Paper, No. 2, 2009, p Fitzpatrick, Catherine A.: Uzbekistan: Karimova Libel Trial Delivers More Scandals; MPs Demand EU Probe, Eurasia Insight, 10 th of June of Fitzpatrick, Catherine A.: EU Pressing Ahead with Presence in Uzbekistan, Eurasia Insight, 28 th of March of 2011, at 8 Tynan, Deirdre: Uzbekistan: Veil is Lifted on German Payments for Termez Base, Eurasia Insight, 24 th of March of 2011, at 9 Emerson, Michael and Boonstra, Jos (eds.) (2010): Into Eurasia: Monitoring the EU s Central Asian Strategy, Brussels, Centre for European Policy Studies and Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior (FRIDE) Madrid. 10 Kavalski, Emilian: The Peacock and the Bear in the Heartland: Central Asia and the Shifting Patterns of India s Relations with Russia, Indian Journal of Asian Affairs, 1 st of June-31 st of December of 2010, XXIII, Nos. 1-2, pp. 1-20, Open Source Center, Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Central Eurasia (Henceforth FBIS SOV), 24 th of March of

12 Kyrgyzstan could become an example of Russo-American cooperation in Central Asia. Specifically he told a press conference in 2009 that, I told the members of the provisional government what I ve heard President Obama say many times to President Medvedev. That is to explain that the Manas Transit Center is there for a very specific purpose regarding a very specific action that we are doing in Afghanistan. We have no intention of permanent bases or military position. In particular, President Obama has said many many times, more generally about U.S.-Russian relations but specifically in regard to the transit center, that we do not define our relations with Kyrgyzstan or any other country in Central Asia in zero sum terms vis-à-vis Russia. As President Obama said publicly in Moscow when he visited there last July, and he s said privately to President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin in their meetings, the notions of spheres of influence and zero sum thinking is a 19th Century concept that has no place in the 21st Century. And if I may be very blunt, the women and men that fly through the transit center on their way to Afghanistan are fighting a struggle against terrorist extremist organizations that threaten both Russian security and Kyrgyz security. So we don t see this as an American struggle or a Russian, against Russia. We see this transit center as enhancing the security of the United States, of Russia, and Kyrgyzstan. It s a win/win/win. 11 Obviously this proliferation of actors, the refusal to admit to what is truly happening, and the globalization of the world economy and politics all add immensely to our difficulties in comprehending the significance of how local trends in Central Asia affect us or conversely how external events influence local developments. But clearly the point is that Central Asia is vulnerable to globalization trends and global forces just as external agents are vulnerable to events in Central Asia as well as outside forces like the global economic crisis that began in Obviously this shift in debate cited by Kavalski reflects trends in world politics and global power perceptions if not rankings, further confirming a link between power and values in both discourse and reality. But that is not all. Kavalski elaborates further on his and Burghart s related insight to observe that given the proliferation of actors and agents operating in Central Asia, The simultaneity of these two dynamics reveals that the agency of external actors is distinguished not by an imperial desire for the control of territory, but by the establishment of niches of influence. Consequently, the notion of the new great game comes to characterize the dynamics of processing, selection and internalization of some externally promoted ideas and not others. 12 The link implicit in Burghart s observation is thus strengthened. Discursive and material power are inextricably entwined with the creation of valorized perceptions of Central Asia and policy postures derived from them. Thus a recent study of Kyrgyz and Kazakh counter- 11 Press Conference with Ambassador Tatiana C. Foeller and Dr. Michael McFaul, Special Assistant to the President of the United States. Bishkek, 4 th of May of 2010, at 12 Ibid. 12

13 terrorism legislation openly links these increasingly repressive laws in the absence of much terrorist activity to these states perception of Russia whose laws they are clearly emulating as a reference group for them, i.e. a state that has created the basis for persuading these states to internalize its legislation. 13 Russia is not the only practitioner of such policies. For instance, let us consider the remarks of the Chinese scholar S. Zhaungzhi, SCO members share a common border. It is unimaginable for Central Asian countries to develop their economies and maintain domestic stability without support from their neighbors. 14 This is a traditionally neo-colonialist view of so called backward states and their relationship to the metropolis. But it also implicitly calls for a transfer not only of Chinese material assistance and political support, but also political norms to China without which these states cannot retain their stability. Similarly Washington is now sponsoring the creation of a fairly extensive network of installations in northern Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan lest the local violence in these areas intensify. 15 However, the Russian expert Andrei Grozin, of the Institute of CIS Studies in Moscow spoke for many in Moscow when he observed that they expect the United States to seek to retain its earlier foothold and limit Russian influence because many officials in both Moscow and Washington see events in Central Asia as part of a big political game Central Asia s Elusiveness and Russian Policy Yet Central Asian realities continue to defy not only easy categorization but also these efforts at both cognitive and more material hegemony. These patterns of external-internal interaction are replicated daily and globally by a bewildering multiplicity of actors interested in and participating in Central Asia, making it even more difficult for us to grasp what is happening there at any but the most basic level. Nevertheless the great powers continue to attempt to impose their preferences upon the region despite local trends and their implications. Thus Russia is replicating in Tajikistan the tactics it used in 2010 to unseat an objectionable Kyrgyz regime by raising energy tariffs just at the start of the spring plowing season in order to compel Tajikistan to comply more completely with Russian policy desiderata. 17 Similarly Russian efforts to bring Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan into its economic bloc, the Eurasian Economic Community depsite the real damage it does to their economies, reflects its determintion to subject their econmies to Moscow s dictates. Andrei Grozin earlier and frankly outlined Russia s overtly exploitative approach to energy issues with Central Asian states. He told the Rosbalt news agency in 2005 that, For successful economic cooperation with Russia in the nearest future Uzbekistan will need to give up the system of state capitalism, in particular, by shaking servicing of expensive ore mining and energy industries off state 13 Omelicheva, Mariya Y. (2011): Counterterrorism Policies in Central Asia. Abingdon/ New York, Routledge. 14 Quoted in Dwivedi, Ramakat: China s Central Asian Policy in Recent Times, The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, vol. 4, no. 4 (2006), p Tynan, D.: Pentagon Planning for Upsurge in Violence in Northern Afghanistan, Central Asia, Eurasia Insight, 21 st of July of 2011, at 16 Bhadrakumar, M.K.: China Plays It Cool on Kyrgyzstan, Asia Times online, 20 th of April of 2010, at 17 See Camm, George: Russia Strong-Arming Tajikistan with Oil Tariffs, Eurasia Insight, 26 th of March of 2011, at See also Russia Increases Tariffs on Gas Exports to Tajikistan, Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, 24 th of March of 2011, at 13

14 shoulders. [Grozin] believes that if Gazprom obtains control over Uzbekistan's gas transporting system, Lukoil is granted free access to exploration and extraction of oil and Russia's expansion into the nutrition and light industry sectors of the Uzbek market takes place, then one can say that the Russian state has received what it expected from the [Russo-Uzbek treaty of November, 2005] alliance treaty. 18 Elsewhere Grozin admitted that Russia s neo-imperial policies are in many respects against economic logic although they make excellent geopolitical sense from an imperial perspective. Thus he writes, The changes on the world market might force the Russian Federation to start importing uranium instead of exporting it. This may happen in the relatively near future. For this reason, the uranium of Kazakhstan and its products are of special interest for Russia, while bilateral cooperation in the atomic, space research, and other high tech applied spheres might pull all the other branches along with them. Russia does not profit financially from its relations with Kazakhstan, which have nothing to do with altruism: financial input is accepted as payment for Russia's geopolitical interests and national security. This is a long-term strategy that allows the Republic of Kazakhstan to adjust its nearly entire scientific and technical potential to Russia: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are two key Central Asian states. This strategy also applies to the military-technical sphere Moscow sells its resources for allied prices not only to strengthen military and foreign policy contacts with Kazakhstan, but also tie it, for many years to come, to Russia s military-industrial complex and standards. 19 Finally at the same time this proliferation of actors not only confirms the Russian proverb a sacred space is never empty but also heightens the geopoltlical rivalry in the economic and military presence of external actors here. This is not just the case where Russia and China have both consistently tried to expel the US from its bases at Manas and Karshi Khanabad in but also in Russia s reaction to any manifestation of foreign economic presence. Thus a recent article on Iran s presence in Tajikistan complains that Iran is raising its investment profile there that increased by 50 percent in 2010 and so could squeeze Russia out of Tajikistan. 20 Similarly, a 2007 report of the Russian-Chinese Business Council observed, Being a member of the SCO, China views other members of the organization as promising markets. It is China that wishes to be the engine behind the trade and economic cooperation within the framework of the SCO China s intentions to form [a] so-called economic space within the SCO are well known. Owing to that fact, experts have been speaking about greater Chinese economic expansion in various parts of the world, including Central Asia. Beijing has activated ties 18 Almaty, Delovaya Nedelya internet Version, in Russian, 25 th of November of 2005, FBIS SOV. 19 Grozin, Andrei: Influence of World Centers of Power on Kazakhstan and New Geopolitical Trends in Central Asia, Central Asia and the Caucasus, vol. 39, no. 3 (2006), p Murtazayev, Ruslan and Vlasov, Andrey: Iranians Advance on Tajikistan, Moscow, Izvestiya Online, in Russian, 2 nd of March of 2011, FBIS SOV, at 14

15 with all Central Asian countries and strives to comprehensively strengthen economic relations and the dependency of these countries on its market. 21 Thus it is a revealing mark of Russia s growing weakness that in 2009 Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov actually praised Chinese investments in Central Asia for their transparency. 22 Ryabkov further claimed that, We believe that our friends and partners in Central Asia are appropriately meeting the situation and solving the task facing them in the sphere of economic and social development using the opportunities that present themselves as a result of cooperation with China. Hence this can only be welcomed. 23 Given the consistent paranoia with Moscow s elite has hitherto appeared to view any gain by China, or for that matter America, in Central Asia this is a profound change in rhetoric if not policy and a major concession to China. Not surprisingly Russian analysts constantly bemoan the decline in Russia s influence in the CIS as a whole and Central Asia in particular, claim that Russia is under siege in the CIS from America, the EU, etc., and state that Russia s control over CIS states is slipping due to its economic uncompetititveness. 24 Central Asia s ongoing elusiveness as both an analytic and actual subject and object in international affairs compels us either as experts or as policymakers to clarify and comprehend regional developments which remain elusive and escape the gray but iron cage of theory. This does not mean that we should immediately cease all efforts to develop theoretical paradigms and approaches to Central Asia. That would be quixotic, wrongheaded, and an abdication of our intellectual responsibility. Rather, even if we agree about the comprehensive international rivalries occurring here and the fact that local governments are largely patrimonial in nature, such analyses have not facilitated either better policy or better understanding of the region. Certainly there is very little consensus about the region in our scholarship or in our policymaking which, given the author s occupation is his most immediate professional concern. But the cognitive and practical elusiveness of Central Asia is now clear to academic observers if not policy practitioners Moscow, Interfax in English, 15 th of November of 2007, FBIS SOV, at 22 Open Source Center, OSC Feature, Russia, OSC Analysis, Russian Officials Laud Ties with China; Observers Express Concerns, FBIS SOV, 20 th of July of Ibid. 24 Trenin, Dmitri: From Pragmatism to Strategic Choice: Is Russia's Security Policy Finally Becoming Realistic?, in Kuchins, Andrew (ed.) (2002): Russia After The Fall, Washington, Carnegie Endowment for Peace. pp Kavalski, E.: Coming to Terms with the Complexity of Agency in Central Asia, Journal of Eurasian Studies, vol. 2, no. 1 (January, 2011), pp

16 3. The US Example and Central Asian Thinking It is very clear that the US initial policymaking approach to the region stemmed from ignorance and misplaced analogies not only about Central Asia, but about Islamic countries in general. Moreover, the implicit premises of that original perception and policy still exercise a substantial influence on US thinking about Central Asia. When Central Asian states became independent in there was widespread apprehension and in some quarters hopes that they might follow the Turkish model under Turkey s tutelage lest they gravitate towards Iranian model of politicized and theocratic Islam. 26 Such thinking reflected a widespread ignorance of the region but also underlying political perceptions and aspirations that still influence Western thinking about Central Asia. For example, many of these views were based on assumptions made then by Paul Goble, the State Department's expert at the time on Soviet nationalities, e.g. Shiite and Sunnis were "pretty much alike." 27 Furthermore at the time these perceptions led policy makers to define Central Asia geopolitically in terms of other states interests, that were then projected on to a seemingly inert region that could not make its own security decisions. Specifically this approach saw the area in terms of the crisis du jour then, i.e. the rivalry between Kemalist Turkey and Iran with Kemalist Turkey being seen firmly as a Western ally. Second, the US (and to be fair Western) approach reflected the view that Central Asia was a tabula rasa or to use a 19 th century term that influenced Marx and Engles, a historyless (Geschichteslos) people upon whom foreign models could be imposed or transferred without any resistance. This idea that Central Asia was a passive object of others designs and that it lacked shape or history existed alongside the implication that it was inherently prone to crisis unless firm outside authority was involved. For if Central Asia did not follow the Turkish model and the implicit idea of Western guidance, it was therefore likely to fall victim to Iran s blandishments. This view ignored Central Asia s visible lack of interest in following Iran or the Iranian tradition, except in certain respects for Tajikistan. These implicit premises affected not only foreign writing about Central Asia that invariably presents the area as being on the verge of a security precipice (and a view that this author has often accepted). They also colored local assessments. Indeed, even Central Asian elites themselves and their foreign partners tend to believe in the inherent fragility of their structures. When Turkmen leader Saparmurat Niyazov suddenly died in December, 2006 regional reactions betrayed the widespread belief in Turkmenistan s inherent instability. Many Central Asian politicians and some, though not the majority, of analysts in Central Asia and Russia expressed genuine fears for an eruption of instability in Turkmenistan. 28 These were not isolated fears. Many analysts, including this author, had been warning for some years before Niyazov s demise that the succession in Turkmenistan or in other Central Asian states could lead to violence and/or that other Central 26 Kramer, Heinz: Will Central Asia Become Turkey s Sphere of Influence?, Perceptions, vol. 3, no. 4, at Many of these views were based on assumptions made by Paul Goble, the State Department's expert at the time on Soviet nationalities, e.g. Shiite and Sunnis were pretty much alike. Hoffman, David: Iran's Drive to Rebuild Seen Posing New Challenges to West, The Washington Post, 2 nd of February of 1992, p. Al; and Horne, A.D.: U.S. Loses Specialist Fluent in the Nationalities, The Washington Post, 14 th of January of 1992, p. A7. 27 Ibid. 28 Central Asia-Russia: Officials, Media Cite Concerns Over Stability Following Turkmen President s Death, OSC Report, 21 st of December of 2006, FBIS SOV. Medetsky, Anatoly and Saradzhyan, Simon: Niyazov Dies, Leaving no Heir, Moscow Times, 22 nd of December of 2006, p

17 Asian states also face the threat of violence when they will experience successions. 29 There is also good reason to suspect that the ruling oligarchy that took over Turkmenistan in the wake of Niyazov s death also feared domestic unrest and therefore quickly moved to alleviate domestic conditions by promises of some social and economic reforms. 30 Published regional accounts reflect a balance between hopes for of improved conditions and fears of potential risks due to internal instability and the possibility of intensified external rivalry for influence over Turkmenistan s future course. 31 For example, Shokirjon Hakimov, the leader of Tajikistan s opposition Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan, stated that, Undoubtedly, if the forthcoming political activities in Turkmenistan concerning the designation of the country s leader take place in a civilized manner, then they will certainly have a positive influence on the development of pluralism in the region. 32 Simultaneously Kazakhstan s Foreign Minister Kasymzhomart Tokayev revealed both his government s hopes and its apprehensions. Tokayev said that his government has an interest in Turkmenistan s stability. Therefore Kazakhstan is not going to get involved in any wars for Turkmenistan. 33 There were other more visible premises inherent in our thinking that still color the approach to Central Asia. Thus this thinking in 1991 saw Central Asia simply as a bloc distinguished by being Muslims. The nuances of Central Asian Islam and the differences between it and the rest of the Muslim world, not to mention the differences between Sunnis and Shias were unknown to policymakers and probably are still underestimated in political thinking about the region. Second, beyond the belief that the region was a single bloc was the naïve and again unfounded belief or tacit presumption that regional integration was not only desirable but the right way for them to go and that these governments would act as a single region. While we still decry their failure to adopt integrative regional standards, and policies, there was little understanding that these new states would act independently of each other in order to consolidate their own individual statehood under their newly empowered leaders. Likewise there was little understanding of the fact that for seventy or more years they had not been integrated but connected vertically to Moscow, which deliberately discouraged and still discourages any prospects for genuine regional economic integration in Central Asia Blank, Stephen: Strategic Surprise: Central Asia in 2006, China Eurasia Forum, vol. IV, no. 2 (May 2006), pp and the sources cited there. Blank, S.: Uzbekistan: A Strategic Challenge to American Policy, Open Society Institute, October of 2004, at Collins, Kathleen (2006): Clan Politics and Regime Transition in Central Asia, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, pp. 297 and 302; Merry, E. Wayne: The Politics of Central Asia: National in Form, Soviet in Context, in Burghart Daniel L. and Sabonis-Helf, Theresa (eds.) (2004): In the Tracks of Tammerlane: Central Asia in the 21st Century, Washington, D.C., National Defense University Center for Technology and National Security Policy, pp See also Uzbekistan Heads towards Violent Regime Change, Jane s Intelligence Review, 1 st of July of 2005, at www4.janes.com. Rumer, Eugene B.: Central Asian Leadership Succession: When, Not If, Strategic Forum, Institute for National Security Studies, National Defense University, Washington, D.C., Turkmenistan Faces a Crisis of Leadership-Experts, Eurasia Insight, 24 th of May of 2006, at 30 Kimmage, Daniel: Turkmenistan: Presidential Campaign Reflects Latent Social Tensions, Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty Features, 19 th of January of 2007, at 31 Azeri Experts Hope for Progress in Relations with Turkmenistan, Baku, Turan News Agency, in Russian, 21 st of December of 2006, Retrieved from Lexis-Nexis. 32 Tajik Opposition Leader Mulls Impact of Turkmen Developments, Dushanbe, Asia-Plus News Agency, in Russian, 22 nd of December of 2006, Retrieved from Lexis-Nexis. 33 Kazakhstan Not to Get Involved in Any Wars for Turkmenistan, Astana, Russia & CIS General Newsline, 29 th of December of 2006, Retrieved from Lexis-Nexis. 34 Alieva, Leila: EU Policies and Sub-Regional Multilateralism in the Caspian Region, The International Spectator, vol. 49, no. 3 (September, 2009), p

18 Third, there was the abiding belief that the new states could become susceptible to either benevolent, i.e. Turkish, Muslim models of political organization, or to negative Iranian models without any thought given not just to their leaders thirst for real power and statehood but also to their Soviet history and internal organization. In other words Western leaders and institutions saw a Central Asia of their own imagination not the one of historical reality. As a result they were ill-prepared to come to grips with that reality and lost valuable time in attending to the new political and strategic realities that emerged with the founding of these states. As is now clear, the transitology of the period, in keeping with the general US trend in the social sciences, opted for a trans-historical and positivistic theorizing and valorizing of concepts taken from comparative political science that had little or no relevance to the actual history or political reality of these societies. Now we at least should know better. As Alfred Evans recently wrote, A growing number of studies have attempted to identify the influence of crucial differences in the historical experience of nations that were formerly under Communist rule. Pop-Eleches argues persuasively historical legacies have to constitute the starting point for any systematic analysis of democratization in the post-communist context. Similarly Grzegorz Ekiert contends that historical legacies determine the available alternatives and make some institutional choices more likely in post-communist countries. 35 Finally there was a fourth, and possibly the most consequential of all these misperceptions, namely a failure to understand that while Communist and incipient post-communist states appeared to be excessively governed when the exact opposite was the case. Here Western policymakers fell victim to the ideology of the Reagan-Thatcher revolution and the Washington consensus that effective states had to be shrunken ones. Western writers believed that the post-soviet states were all heirs to an overly strong state with aspirations and capabilities to control all of socio-economic life and thus overendowed with state structures. These structures had to be overturned if not destroyed in the transition even though it soon became clear that these states were hardly all alike and that they were actually underinstitutionalized. Adjustment policies that were supposed to facilitate a democratic transition only destroyed the sole means of administration and effective governance in an already undergoverned system whose resources for controlling and shaping mass socio-political behavior were already insufficient. Consequently it is no surprise that rulers fell back on clans, tribes, or other such informal associations and throughout Central Asia we saw a rise in social pathologies like widespread criminality, drug abuse, declining investment in human capital, ecological decay, etc. 36 Thus external signifiers of Central Asia failed to understand that, State-building strategies applied to post-soviet and other countries must bear in mind that, contrary to developmentalist and functionalist theories, the state is not the political outcome of a universal process of rationalization of society, but rather the specific solution of sociopolitical crises entrenched in specific, historical, 35 Evans, Alfred B.: The Failure of Democratization in Russia: A Comparative Perspective, Journal of Eurasian Studies, vol. 2, no. 1 (January, 2011), p Buisson, Antoine: State-Building, Power-Building and Political Legitimacy: The Case of Post-Conflict Tajikistan, China-Eurasia Forum Quarterly, vol. 5, no. 1 (2007), pp

19 international, economic, and cultural contexts as well as the result of a dual process of state building and state formation. 37 And these contexts are invariably simultaneously internal and external, and in Central Asia, made up of a proliferating number of actors who all exercise an impact on the situation there whether by design, or omission. 4. The Intractable Reality of Central Asia and US Policy Consequently Central Asia has consistently disappointed Western and other expectations of what it ought to be and how its component governments should develop. But beyond confounding foreign expectations Central Asian realities remain stubbornly elusive to analysts. As Kavalski observes, since Lord Curzon s time thinking about Central Asia has consistently verged on fantasy and hyperbole. 38 Meanwhile, Central Asia has clearly been progressively disappointed with the meagerness of Western interest and support as well as the rhetorical invocations of demands for democratic reform that in practice these governments have overlooked. Not only do we have a dialogue of the deaf we also see that Central Asia has adamantly gone its own way and disregarded Western recommendations. But in doing so Central Asia has also underscored the linkages between its domestic and foreign developments that have contributed to the processes that disappointed Western thinking. 39 Thus despite the supposed ever-present danger of instability, Western, and especially EU involvement in a serious way with Central Asia and the entire post-soviet political space was late, underfinanced, and remote from the pressing problems of the entire area like conflict resolution or political mentorship so as to encourage more liberalizing reforms. 40 The consequences of failing to realize the need for more sustained and deeper Western involvement across this entire geopolitical space and in Central Asia in particular have made themselves felt as NATO is now fighting in Afghanistan and the EU has belatedly tried to formulate a coherent EU strategy. Similarly it was Western neglect of the Transcaucasus that gave Moscow the opening it eventually seized first to freeze conflicts there, then to preclude any progress towards resolving them, and then ultimately towards exploiting them by force majeure for its own purposes. 41 Consequently Central Asian states were in the 1990s left quite on their own by comparison to the attention and resources lavished (to little avail) on Russia. This contributed to the ensuing and now entrenched trend towards highly authoritarian states and more or less autarchic policies since leaders realized nobody in the West was watching them too seriously to threaten them for such behavior or ready to assist them substantively in dealing with the problems they perceived upon coming to power. 42 Being on their own they duly seized those 37 Ibid. 38 Kavalski, Coming to Terms, op. cit., p Akiner, Shirin: Partnership Not Mentorship: Re-appraising the Relationship between the EU and the Central Asian States, China Eurasia Forum Quarterly, vol. 8, no. 4 (2011), pp See Alieva, op. cit., pp See Blank, S.: From Neglect to Duress: The West and the Georgian Crisis Before the 2008 War, in Cornell Svante E. and Starr, S. Frederick (eds.) (2009): The Guns of August 2008: Russia s War in Georgia, Armonk, M.E. Sharpe, pp Ibid.; Akiner, op. cit., pp ; Emerson et al., op. cit. 19

20 opportunities. Understandably as these regimes gradually consolidated themselves on the basis of authoritarian and even patrimonial forms of rule the issues of democracy (or its deficits) free elections and threats to state stability created a convergence of attitudes (or of reference groups) bringing Central Asian states to see Russia as a regional guarantor of their stability and tenure. 43 If one adds this relative Western neglect to the historical realities of the situation confronting Central Asian leaders and their own ambitions for power, it becomes clear just how much the Western tendency to define Central Asia in ethnocentric parochial terms has come to cost Western governments and Central Asian peoples. In the policy realm, these cognitive and conceptual failures continue to stunt not just our political understanding of the region but also to ensure that Western and especially US objectives are at best only partially realized. Only quite recently have US policymakers or former policymakers like Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Evan Feigenbaum been willing to concede that many US objectives have failed to materialize. 44 This realization also finds expression in high-level US think tank reports with which Feigenbaum was involved but that represented a consensus view among experts like the recent Project 2049 study that flatly said the US is failing to realize its regional objectives in Central Asia. 45 Moreover. These cognitive and policy failures continue. The American embassy in Bishkek in evidently became preoccupied with keeping the criminal Bakiyev regime happy and so actively discouraged contacts with other political actors in Kyrgyz society. In so doing they repeated the mistakes of their predecessors in Iran in Consequently their relations with civil society fell into disrepair. 46 Indeed, according to US officials the embassy was told in advance of the coup in April 2010 that unseated Bakiyev but failed to either report the information or act upon it. 47 Here ignorance or disregard for local reality had immediate and serious political consequences. Meanwhile, as we all know, neither of the alternatives posed in 1991 came to pass. Central Asian states did not, as some hoped, morph into democracies or what we thought were democracies like Yeltsin s Russia, itself another example of dashed hopes and defective analysis. Instead they have all become, to one degree or another, exemplars of what analysts rightly call neo-patrimonial states. 48 This label is appropriate even if no two states are alike. This sorry history bears retelling for it strongly impresses upon us the fact that we did not 43 Patanik, Ajay: Russia in Central Asia: Collaborative Hegemonism, Paper Presented to the Annual Convention of the Association for the Study of Nationalities, New York, April, Tynan, D.: Absent in Ashgabat: Does the US Need an Envoy in Turkmenistan? Eurasia Insight, 24 th of February of 2011, at 45 Project 2049, Strengthening Fragile Partnerships: An Agenda for the Future of U.S.-Central Asia Relations, Washington, D.C., 2011, at 46 Tynan, D.: Kyrgyzstan: US Embassy Personnel in Bishkek Are on Hot Seat, Eurasia Insight, 27 th of April of 2010, at 47 Conversations with US officials, Washington D.C., May For recent examples of the debate as to what exactly this patrimonialism might signify and how it is manifested in policy see Anceschi, Luca: Integrating Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy Making: the Cases of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, Central Asian Survey, vol. 29, no. 2 (June, 2010), pp Tuncer- Kulavuz, Idil: Political and Social Networks in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan: Clan, Regions, and Beyond, Central Asian Survey, vol. 27, no. 2 (June, 2009), pp Guilette, David: Theories on Central Asian Factionalism: the Debate in Political Science and Its Wider Implications, Central Asian Survey, vol. 26, no. 3, (September, 2007), pp Ilkhamov, Alisher: Neopatrimonialism, Interest Groups and Patronage Networks; the Impasses of he governance System in Uzbekistan, Central Asian Survey, vol. 26, no. 1 (March, 2007), pp Kendall-Taylor, Andrea H.: Political Insecurity and Oil Revenue Management in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, Problems of Post-Communism, vol. 58, no. 1 (January-February, 2011), pp Radnitz, Scot (2010): Weapons of the Wealthy: Predatory Regimes and Elite-Led Protests in Central Asia, Ithaca/London, Cornell University Press. 20

UNISCI. ISSN 1696-2206 Nº 23 May /Mayo 2010 TURKEY/TURQUÍA. www.ucm.es/ info/unisci. n CENTRAL ASIA / ASIA CENTRAL. (Mustafa Aydin, Coord.

UNISCI. ISSN 1696-2206 Nº 23 May /Mayo 2010 TURKEY/TURQUÍA. www.ucm.es/ info/unisci. n CENTRAL ASIA / ASIA CENTRAL. (Mustafa Aydin, Coord. ISSN 1696-2206 Nº 23 May /Mayo 2010 UNISCI TURKEY/TURQUÍA (Mustafa Aydin, Coord.) Nur Bilge Criss Parameters of Turkish Foreign Policy under the AKP Governments UNIDAD DE INVESTIGACIÓN SOBRE SEGURIDAD

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