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Transcripción

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2 3 4 5 " # $% # &" " 25 " " # # " 35 ' * '# ( '# ( ' $ ') ( *+ ( " *, " &%" 44 ** *, 49 &-&./0123&4-/0#* /.520## 2

3 "# $ % & ' # (#)$* + +) ' +' $,$ - + '+ '.. # ' - ) + '+ '.. - ' - /+ ' $) /+ ' $/+ ' ' ' ')) '+ '.. # 3

4 "#$ 3/0 #) 3/0 "#)- 3/0$4 + 5 ' (#)$* 3/0 +' 6 3/0 +' #) 3/0 47' #) 3/0-3 1 #)$ 3/0#4 '')$ 3/0) +'#) 3/0 89 ))# 3/0 4 9 ' ))) 3/0 4 92: )) 3/0$ 4 92+)) 3/0 : 0 )) 3/ )) 3/0 1 ))$ 3/0-4 ))$ 3/0# % )) 3/0) 4 )) 3/0)- 3/04 )- 3/089 )-# 3/0$ )-) 3/04 9 ' )-) 3/0 8 )-$ 3/04 )-$ 3/0-% )-$ 3/0#4 )-$ 3/0)1 )-$$ 3/0$4 )-$ 3/0$ + '))$ 3/0$ + ' 9/ ))$ 3/0$$ + '''))$- 3/0$ + 0 ' ' + ' ' ())*$) 3/0$ + 0 )) 3/0$ 0 +' ' + ' ' (* 3/0$ /0$# 0 ' ' + ' ' ())* 3/0$) 0 ))$ 3/01 2)) 3/ ')) 3/ ' 9/ ))- 3/0$1 2' ' ))- 3/0 9 ) 3/ / / /0#40 ++/ 92; 3/0)40 ++/ + ;; $ 4

5 %& ' ( ( ) 16" 78 9 " 3 2% :*: " " ; 8 < ; =>? >" "" 8 < " "6@ < / %" #@# " :A#@ % ";" 6@B" " % B""@ 3 % " ::*@" -";@" " " % 9 " " C 81 % " " %"+@#' " 6@ ::#" " < '@ %" % % " % 9 " " 9*@' % ; 1"@ " " B" 8@ E F % " 1" ;" B" " 9> "@ " " D+'@ B" " < " 9@";" " 6 "#$ $ %&&' $ 5

6 *#$ +,%+-./ ::*? ,( % = ::* "? Año Nivel Var % Año Nivel Var % , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,1 " % " % ++# I + " 6 " "" 6 1 B"@ " < + 7@ % " " ': >8 " J=? " "" "I@ " " D@"9 L=?1 " "9@ L='? 1" 6

7 " -; 0 M 2& = + ' '?@ "> %B" 8 " 6 9 " " 2& B"M > B"" "@ ;, / "" /@ B" << " " " ;@"9 " % "D"@ " < < /@ % B" 6@< " ( " %1"@ " B" B"@ < 8 " G % 7 "@ " " 7 "" % / " " ;@B" " <" " *#$,%) / =1G0H@ ::*?

8 ,( %) 0 1 =G0 ::* "? Año Nivel Var % Año Nivel Var % , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,41 6@ " B" " ++*D + # " "NK B" :A# ::'@ 8 "; " " 6 " 7 2,( 3 =G0 ::* "? Año Nivel Var % Año Nivel Var % , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,79 / 8 " "I ;@ " D B" "9 /@ " " 0O@" 6 B" /@ " 0O@ " ;" " " " " 8

9 B" % < B" " " " " % < " 8 " % " =::#D ++'? " B" ++*D +'+@ " 9 ' A 6@ " " 0O " 9 8 B" % ; "" 9 < % B"@ " B" " < 7@" /(>/ < " % D" (1D " " ;,4+-./250 9

10 400,0 350,0 300,0 250,0 200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 0,0 *#$ 2 ) 4+-./ Indice de productividad Indice de productividad (corregido por efecto migracion rural-urbano) G 8 < B" B"@ % "" % " >8 " J " B" " 9@ "9 " 0,25 *#$ ( % 6% 0,20 0,15 0,10 0,05 Importaciones/PBI No tendendiales Importaciones/PBI tendenciales 0,

11 *#$,% () +-./ ::*? ,( () =G0 ::*? Año Nivel Var % Año Nivel Var % , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,80 < > B" B"% ++"%< < " " " B" " < 11

12 *#$ /,7 () +-./ ::*? " E" F@3,@ 3, "" 7 ++'@ "" " % " 1"@ 7 ( 1 G@B"@ B" 7 ++>@< " " "GG 7B" " % " ** '+ 7 ++' + #/@ B" % ; < " " " 3,@ <@0" / 82( =P? GOBIERNO CENTRAL INGRESOS TRIBUTARIOS 14,40 13,06 Impuestos a los ingresos 3,80 3,80 Impuestos al patrimonio 0,00 0,00 Impuestos a las importaciones 1,20 0,67 IGV interno 3,90 3,63 IGV a las importaciones 2,60 2,36 ISC 2,10 1,96 Otros ingresos tributarios 0,60 0,56 Documentos valorados -1,60-1,60 INGRESOS NO TRIBUTARIOS 1,80 1,68 INGRESOS CORRIENTES 14,40 13,06 12

13 @ 6 J = % :::+ +#'+?@ "; 2.@ " B" 6 8 " 1 9 " " +A@ ;"" M + #@ +@+@ *#$ 9 *' 0 +-./ =1G0H@ ::*? " K 6 =K 6?" ; B"" 8 8 " ;=-? B" B" 6 " % " " 392 =::? :#+D::#1 6 7" " 2 > 3 ::D ++.= 3)? 13

14 *#$ - ) ) )(, +.2 =P? 30,0 25,0 IBF privada IBF pública 20,0 15,0 10,0 5, "J0 27= ++*? 9 " % < " 0 27 = ++*? ;" $% - 9 " G 9 " "@B"" >@ % ++#D + " 9 8" *#$. ( )+-./ = G0H ::*?

15 " : 92 ' 9 B"@ """. % =.?@"B" " < 1 "D"6" 9@ " " >B" " " Q " " L " " " B" ""L/" 9" ; " " " ;L>" 9" ; " ; "L " " 1 " B" " ""@B""< "@" " J =? Qi = aij x n i= 1 j + y i " " "B" " % ; " " J =? q = AX + Y J q x 1 q = q i 1 x = x j y 1 y = y i a a 11 1i a 1 j A = 1 "" " "" " "@ "B" " B" " " " "" " "@ "J ='? x j = q ij n j= 1 > B ; "" " ;> B"@ ; " J =*? q j = d ijqi a ij 15

16 ""9 """ " B"", " ; " % 0 " J =#? xij = d ijqi n i= 1 0 " B""< J =? X = Dq 0""=?=?@J =A? q = ADq + Y >;@ 1 =A? q = ( I AD) Y "@ "< " " " J 1 =)? X = D( I AD) Y < " B"""9 " " 9 " 9 " " B" % / " B" " < + ' 1 " A )@ B" " B" % 9, : : SECTOR I II III IV PROMEDIO PROMEDIO Agricultura y pesca 3,56% 3,43% 4,20% 3,80% 3,83% 2,69% Energía y minas 3,91% 4,29% 4,51% 4,72% 4,38% 3,38% Manufactura 3,86% 3,17% 4,34% 3,74% 3,91% 3,70% Construcción 8,30% -0,68% 6,06% 3,99% 4,53% 2,98% Servicios 3,43% 3,69% 4,25% 3,78% 3,85% 3,35% TOTAL PBI 3,85% 3,39% 4,39% 3,90% 3,96% 3,29% 16

17 -, % SECTOR Agricultura y pesca 10,51% 10,36% 10,38% 10,29% 10,23% Energía y minas 11,23% 11,25% 11,78% 11,84% 12,34% Manufactura 14,45% 14,45% 14,30% 14,26% 14,14% Construcción 5,42% 6,77% 5,52% 6,01% 6,03% Servicios 58,39% 57,16% 58,02% 57,61% 57,26% " " "J "" @ 96?L% "@% "?L " " = " " " " "?L " = " G B"" B"" @ " "@ " < " " < * =':A? 7 ++# + + " " % " " %:'+ ++*1 9" B" < "" B" <" B" " " 7:)'%/ 3 7B" < " B" B"" " "@ "" 8 " % " ::+@ " % """ J 7 1 " B" B" " % B" A 1 " "< " ;@ " "@ B"" %"L % < " < 1 B" " " "" " 9 0 " " "" 17

18 /"" + " " "" " 1 " J " < """ " B""@@ " B" "" B" " " " % B"" " " 9,8 *#$ +,%;" (+.. = G0H ::*? 9,3 8,8 8,3 7,8 7,3 6, "" B" " J B"% ".7 1 "B".7B" < 7 " 9 1 ".7 " 9.B" ".7 B" "1 " B" 7: #@:)' ::)B" % " " " " 7 % " " 6 B"" "B".7 9 % " "" &" " " " " 0 "B" 9"" %@" "" " 8 " " B""< 2 B" " ( $) *#+ 18

19 " < " "" <@ "" 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% *#$ ++,) " (+.. =P? % ( 9 8 " ;" >" B"< < 19

20 *#$ +,%"<( +.. = G0H ::*? 10 9,5 9 8,5 8 7,5 7 6,5 6 5, B" " " " % 9 "" % " % 1 " " " "" < " 6 " " 9 "" "" 9 %@@ " 6 12,5% *#$ +2,) "<( +.. =P? 11,5% 10,5% 9,5% 8,5% 7,5% 6,5% 5,5%

21 $ " " B" % 1 9 B";" B" "8 " " B""" 8 " " " " B" " " 1 "" J"@ < 1 ;" " " B" " 10,5 *#$ +,%= $+.. = G0H ::*? 10,0 9,5 9,0 8,5 8,0 7,5 7,0 6,5 6, B" " " 7 " 9 < B" < " 8 % > 8 8 " " B" " " < < B" 21

22 *#$ +,) $+.. =P? 18,5% 17,5% 16,5% 15,5% 14,5% 13,5% 12,5% 11,5% 10,5% 9,5% B" " B"" 6"" 7" 551 < ""B" %B""" 8 " "" <@@ %@ "" B" % " " B" "9 " 6 < " " " " 1 % 1 " "9B" % "9 " B" < B";" ";" " <@ " "@ " /@ "< "" "" " 88"" ""@ " A 22

23 *#$ +/,%' +.. = G0H ::*? 9,5 9,0 8,5 8,0 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 4, *#$ +9,) +.. =P? 7,5% 6,5% 5,5% 4,5% 3,5% 2,5% 1,5% " "@ B" %" "" /%@" " B" < @B" " " " = ""? 23

24 *#$ +-,%) +.. = G0H ::*? 11,5 11,0 10,5 10,0 9,5 9,0 8,5 8,0 7, % *#$ +.,) ) +.. =P? 64% 63% 62% 61% 60% 59% 58% 57% 56% 55%

25 %%& ) " " 1 "" " ;" J=? " 6L=? B" ( L='? B" " %" 1 % B""9 " " "" 8 " 7:A#0"@@B" 8 " % " 8 " 9 /B" 1 1 $6 < " " ".7" 6 " " " ( " " % 9,0 *#$ %+.9 = G0H ::*? 8,8 8,6 8,4 8,2 8,0 7,8 7,6 7,4 7,

26 *#$ + ) %+.9 =P? 5.1% 5.0% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% " B" " " % 6 1 " " " " "" " "" " " < B" "" 1 " "9 B"" " " 9 9 "% B" % 8 < "0 "" 09 < " " B"B" B" " " "" " " " 0 B" " "* P" 7 ++# + /%@ ;@% ")P@ B"@ " #P " : 88 B" A'*P *A P1 "B" " " " 9 " 9 " *AP #'#P 26

27 . : : SECTOR I II III IV PROMEDIO PROMEDIO Agricultura y pesca 4,63% 4,65% 5,30% 4,99% 5,03% 1,64% Manufactura 3,51% 2,60% 4,01% 3,55% 3,51% 4,46% Energía y minas 1,39% 1,10% 2,21% 2,03% 1,76% -2,63% Construcción 4,85% 4,88% 5,68% 5,20% 5,21% 2,71% Servicios 5,16% 4,83% 5,86% 5,32% 5,37% 2,50% TOTAL PBI 4,37% 4,01% 5,15% 4,72% 4,65% 1,84% + % SECTOR Agricultura y pesca 11,54% 11,69% 12,07% 12,16% 12,32% Manufactura 27,96% 26,78% 24,96% 23,58% 22,24% Energía y minas 7,34% 6,32% 5,47% 4,72% 4,13% Construcción 5,50% 5,63% 5,88% 6,04% 6,18% Servicios 47,66% 49,57% 51,63% 53,51% 55,13% / " " @ " % /"" 1 "" <@ 7@ B" B" 9" 7 1 :)' ::) " @"" < % 1 " " "9 9 " B" " "" < B" 8 " B" " G@ " / 1 " < "" " 9 27

28 *#$ %;" +.9 = G0H ::*? 6,6 6,4 6,2 6,0 5,8 5,6 5,4 5,2 5,0 4,8 4,6 4,4 4,2 4, B" " " 9@ B" ".7@ "B" " 1 ".7 " J" " "9 9 "B""" < 7 2" B" " 9 B""6 7" " % " B"" 7B" 8 " " 2 % " " " > " "@" " ;@" % % " " " ;@ 9@ "@"9 7 ".7 " 7 " "@ 8 B" " " 7 " B" 9 % / " 6 7@B"< " 9 ;@" B" "" B"" " 28

29 $ B" B" " / 9 " 1 "B" "B" % "" *#$ 2 %+.9 = G0H ::*? 5,4 5,2 5,0 4,8 4,6 4,4 4,2 4,0 3,8 3,6 3,4 3,2 3,0 2,8 2,6 2,4 2,2 2,0 1,8 1, % " " *P 'P" % " * 15% *#$ ) " (+.9 =P? 13% 11% 9% 7% 5%

30 / " 1 " " " ""; B"% @ % 8 " "@" 8 ; " " "" B" ( 8 < " < B" " 8 B" 9 B" 8 """ "@ " "% 1 < " " B"" = 'AP? B" " < 0 B" " " < " " " B" 0 8 B" B" B" B"" % *#$ %; ) % +.9 = G0H ::*? Manufactura Energía y minas 1 ; " " 8 ;@ '*#P:A+8 AA B" *P + #( " " " " 30

31 % B" 9 % 35% 33% 31% 29% 27% 25% 23% 21% 19% 17% 15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% *#$ / ) ) +.9 =P? 3% Energía y minas Manufactura 0 > < ;" ; B"" J" " " " ; B" 9 " 8 " " 8 " 9 B" G " " 6@B"" " " B" " B" " """ " ( " 8 " 0" % """ " " "8 0 8 "" 8 % ;@" " 6@ " " % B""% % < """% 31

32 *#$ 9 %) +.9 = G0H ::*? 8,4 8,2 8,0 7,8 7,6 7,4 7,2 7,0 6,8 6,6 6,4 6, " B" "" " 56% *#$ - ) ) +.9 =P? 52% 48% 44% 40% 36% " "8 " " "" B" " J ;" "" +B"< 32

33 " ;" 6 B" % " % " "@ B"" " "" 9 < 2 " " " < 9 B" % "@ % " " B"@ B" " @ " :@B" ""@'+B"" " *#$. %' +.9 = G0H ::*?

34 *#$ 2 ) +.9 =P? 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4%

35 %%%& ) +9/0 ' + 8 ". " 7 6 " " )P ::+ #P ++'@ "@ +)#P < B"" "; "9 " B"" 6 *#$ =P? 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% 1.90% 1.80% 1.70% 1.60% 1.50% 1.40% 1.30% 1.20% 1.10% 1.00% 0.90% 0.80% < B" " " <9 7@ " "9 B" < B" 7 B" + B" 9 " " "" "" B" ;@ " B" " " ""7 ;@ ;% B" 35

36 B"% " &" B" " " "6 % 7 " " " " 9 B" 8 " ( B" B" " "" "; 9 ::)@ B" " " 9 8 G B" 9 9 " " " B"< " " 8 *#$ 2 ",#+.. =P? 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% % -1.0% Población Urbana Población Rural +9/0 ' ''@ B" B" " " " " < @" < "@" 36

37 " B" " "" / % <8 % 9 " " " 8 B" " =''? *#$ 22 ) +.. =P? 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Piura Sullana Talara Paita Ayabaca Huancabamba M orropón Sechura " " $ " <" " %" 1 " 9 8 " ;" 1 " " " % " 9@" " <8 B" " "".7@ B" " % " 9 G B""8 9 ".@ B" " B" 1 ( " " 9 " ( 8 " 9 " " 1 8 " "9@"" 1 " 37

38 @ "% 1 " "@ % " 1R $ /@ ; " 6@ B" % "" 8 <" B" " " 8 B"" % B" >" 7 ";" " B" "" 9 /@ " " " " /@ 8 " " "" " < " 8 " " B" " " " 9 " $ " ""8 " " " 6B"% /"B" " " B" '* " 6 1 "9 % B" B" " " " % 0 xi % xˆ i "<J n i= 1 x i xˆ i /@ xˆ i " J xˆ = α + β i y i y α β B" i " 38

39 *#$ 2 $ )&% 4+../ Tasa de mortalidad infantil Tasa de mortalidad estimada (mediana condicional) Tasa de mortalidad estimada (media condicional) 1 ++ # $ Parámetro Media Condicional Mediana Condicional α β " " " 8 1 % " ;" 39

40 *#$ 2 $ +../ < % B" #) ++8 'A+ + # ( "9" '" B" *#$ 2/ $ )&% Tasa de analfbetismo 2001 Tasa de analfabetismo estimada (mediana condicional) Tasa de analfabetismo estimada (media condicional) 40

41 1B" " " " + # $ Parámetro Media Condicional Mediana Condicional α β " " B" " ; 8 1 % " ;" *#$ 29 $ ; % + # 7 ++ '. ( ",* + #$$#$+++-# -)$ +$$$#"# ) # *.#$ * $+ * 41

42 / " ') " " *#$ 2- $ )&% 4+../ Tasa de desnutrición infantil Tasa de desnutrición estimada (mediana condicional) Tasa de desnutrición estimada (media condicional) 1 B"" " +2 # $ Media Mediana Parámetro Condicional Condicional α β B" " 8 1 ;" 42

43 *#$ 2. $ +../ B" 9 % 7 + #% * @ 9 " <@ " B" " < " % "" 43

44 %>& '?< " 6"" " " 9 " " " @ ( " " " " " 1"@ B" " @ " " 9 " /"B" " 9 " % B" " " 9 " 9 " " % " " " ( 1" " "" * Año + '< % ( +.. PBI per capita del departamento de Piura (US$) Población de la cuenca Total Rural Urbano Urbana Rural $" " " " " ""@ B" % " " " B" " " " B" "@ B" " % B" 6@ 9 0 " " " " " ; " " ' " 44

45 " 7 ++ ;" : " ; 7@@@" " B" % % B" " ( ; % " %" " *)'P " "B" % " ( < " " ; ; "" ". % 6@ < " % ( 6@" ; 6 " " " " ; " " " " A'P ;" 7 " % " " >@" *+ *#$ '< %+.. = G0H ::*? " " 9@ " 7" (88 < " " " B" " " " " " " " 6@ " B"8 45

46 0 " %" " " M" / 1 " B"" " " * *#$ + '< +.. =P? 1.90% 1.80% 1.70% 1.60% 1.50% 1.40% 1.30% 1.20% 1.10% 1.00% 0.90% /"B" " < 88B" < B" " #*:'P::+ ##AP ++'@@ " B" #)#AP + # B" " " " " 9@" " "0" " B" ; " @ "9@ % " % 1 < 9 "@""@ 6I " 1 46

47 *#$ '< ",# +.. =P? 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% Población urbana Población rural B" " 7 ++# B"% ::A@ 7@ " " *#$ 2 '< % +.. =G0H ::*? "" " ">" B" 47

48 % %" " *:P1 B"B""" # + '< : : ,18% ,16% ,75% ,95% ,28% ,40% ,86% ,96% 48

49 >& ) " " " % B"" " "@7 B" " " " J " ".7@ B"@ "@ " *#$ ( %", =G0H ::*? PBI Business as usual PBI Escenario Pesimista PBI Escenario Optimista "" B" " " " " ; 8 7 " " "" ** " B" 9 " "" ; B" " "" < " B" " ; " &" B" ; B" ; < ; " % 49

50 *#$ = $ ", Escenario pesimista Escenario optimista Business as usual *#$ / $ ", Escenario pesimista Escenario optimista Business as usual 50

51 *#$ 9 $ ", Escenario pesimista Escenario optimista Business as usual B"< B"< " "@ " B"< ; B" % " ;B" " "".7 " % " " " % ++#D + # 0./$M % ++D +*:@ " 8"" >8 " " % " "" J 2 =:? ( x p) = 4c ( y q) < % " 0./$M '++ " % " " % " 7 '@. 7B" % %" ""B" " % 51

52 /" 9 " J 2 =:? ( x 0.39) = 4( 1.57) ( y 1.15) G " B"<"< " " " % ; " G9 " " " 0./$M@ " " %" % 9 B""% B" % =3*)? 800 Gráfico 48 Piura: Efectos del cambio climático sobre el PBI agrícola, =G0H ::*? Elaboración propia Sin cambio climático Con cambio climático " "" " B" % B" ; 52

53 Gráfico 49 Piura: Efectos del cambio climático sobre la tasa de crecimiento del PBI, =G0H ::*? Elaboración propia Sin cambio climático Con cambio climático 53

54 &-&./0123&4-/0. 1+' J.@ ++*.+ 1 J.@::* (>38/ = % $@ ++# $ " 3 > < 9 3><5?+,, "@>& > G $@ ++* &21$@9 ' > ++' &21$ 4 = 8 A' 1 " <B1C: $@ ++* &21$0+ 4 8' ++# 92' : + $$@ ++* 0./$M4 1+/ < 9 '1 20./$M@ ++* D+ $1 J" "@ ++' 54

55 /.520,% "+-./ =G0H ::*? PBI Inversión Bruta Fija Importaciones Exportaciones Gasto Público Consumo Privado

56

57 PBI Inversión Bruta Fija Importaciones Exportaciones Gasto Público Consumo Privado

58 ,% " +.. =G0H ::*? Energía y Servicios Servicios no Total PBI Agricultura Pesca Manufacturas Construcción Comercio minas gobierno especificados

59 Energía y Servicios Servicios no Total PBI Agricultura Pesca Manufacturas Construcción Comercio minas gobierno especificados

60 % " +.9 =G0H ::*? Total PBI Agricultura Pesca Energía y minas Manufacturas Construcción Comercio Servicios gobierno Servicios no especificados

61 Perú Piura (departamento) +.. =? Provincias del departamento de Piura Piura Sullana Talara Paita Ayabaca Huancabamba Morropón Sechura , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

62 % "#$ +.9 Año Población Total Población Urbana Población Rural PBI per capita Piura PBI per capita rural Piura PBI per capita urbano Piura , , ,460 1, , , , ,433 1, , , , ,107 1, , , , ,104 1, , , , ,922 1, , , , ,540 1, , , , ,935 1, , , , ,083 1, , ,027, , ,959 1, , ,059, , ,536 1, , ,091, , ,784 1, , ,125, , ,674 1, , ,150, , ,525 1, , ,176, , ,116 1, , ,202, , ,024 1, , ,228, , ,322 1, , ,255, , ,466 1, , ,283, , ,857 1, , ,311, , ,813 1, , ,340, , ,329 1, , ,370, , ,111 1, , ,392, , ,764 1, , ,414, , ,594 1, , ,435, , ,736 1, , ,456,813 1,000, ,985 1, , ,478,340 1,022, ,704 1, , ,499,925 1,042, ,211 1, , ,521,384 1,061, ,494 1, , ,543,002 1,080, ,112 1, , ,565,061 1,100, ,845 1, , ,587,848 1,120, ,825 1, , ,611,573 1,140, ,782 1, , ,636,047 1,162, ,636 1, , ,660,952 1,184, ,765 1, , ,685,972 1,205, ,078 1, , ,710,790 1,226, ,020 1, , ,735,651 1,247, ,403 1, , ,760,454 1,267, ,642 1, , ,785,044 1,288, ,855 1, , ,809,329 1,307, ,330 1, , ,833,255 1,327, ,800 1, , ,856,678 1,346, ,859 2, , ,879,675 1,365, ,458 2, , ,902,394 1,383, ,056 2, , ,924,896 1,401, ,775 2, , ,947,292 1,419, ,276 2, , ,969,322 1,436, ,755 2, , ,990,991 1,453, ,190 2, , ,012,203 1,470, ,727 2, , ,032,992 1,486, ,109 2, , ,053,260 1,502, ,487 2, , ,072,948 1,518, ,816 2, , ,092,128 1,532, ,164 3,123 1, , ,110,845 1,547, ,374 3,292 1, , ,129,197 1,561, ,614 3,460 1, , ,147,294 1,575, ,843 3,475 1, ,852 62

63 '?< % "#$ +.. Población urbana Población rural PBI (US$) PBI per capita (US$) , ,075 1,242,664,180 1, , ,706 1,221,534,098 1, , ,341 1,227,407,655 1, , ,927 1,282,104,999 1, , ,413 1,411,292,956 1, , ,741 1,456,553,758 1, , ,765 1,517,747,568 1, , ,618 1,517,280,837 1, , ,426 1,453,626,496 1, , ,308 1,432,677,775 1, , ,385 1,468,250,490 1, , ,618 1,444,623,872 1, , ,980 1,518,850,763 1, , ,412 1,570,343,122 1, , ,861 1,655,163,904 1, , ,276 1,770,778,628 1, , ,674 1,841,795,239 1, , ,979 1,902,138,992 1, , ,167 1,952,917,083 1, , ,153 2,093,248,255 2, , ,931 2,267,968,122 2, , ,627 2,385,529,720 2, , ,469 2,572,589,196 2, , ,390 2,658,418,199 2, , ,263 2,670,603,399 2, , ,258 2,809,523,674 2, , ,249 3,079,250,045 2, , ,312 3,309,154,462 2, , ,373 3,357,334,805 2, , ,439 3,546,060,414 2, , ,513 3,679,907,687 3, , ,505 3,791,129,593 3, , ,438 4,109,064,723 3, , ,235 4,370,563,241 3, , ,930 4,634,524,745 3, , ,507 4,690,987,272 3,730 63

64 ( %", =G0H ::*? PBI Business as usual PBI Escenario Pesimista PBI Escenario Optimista

65 % ", Business as usual Tasa de mortalidad infantil Tasa de desnutrición infantil Tasa de analfabetismo Escenario optimista Escenario pesimista Business as usual Escenario optimista Escenario pesimista Business as usual Escenario optimista Escenario pesimista

66 $ # % =G0H ::*? Total PBI PBI Agricultura