El crecimiento económico en América Latina. Una perspectiva de largo plazo (s. XIX y XX)

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1 XI Congreso Internacional de la AEHE 4 y 5 de Septiembre 2014 Colegio Universitario de Estudios Financieros (CUNEF) Madrid El crecimiento económico en América Latina. Una perspectiva de largo plazo (s. XIX y XX) Marc Badia Miró, Universitat de Barcelona, mbadia@ub.edu Anna Carreras Marín, Universitat de Barcelona, annacarrerasmarin@ub.edu Xavier Tafunell, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, xavier.tafunell@upf.edu Miguel Martín-Retortillo (U. de Zaragoza), Vicente Pinilla (U. de Zaragoza), Jackeline Velazco (Pontificia U. Católica del Perú), Henry Willebald (U. de la República): Productividad Total de los Factores en la agricultura latinoamericana: un análisis comparativo de la segunda mitad del XX Rick Hölsgens (U. of Groningen), Cristián Ducoing (U. de Valparaíso), Mar Rubio (U. Pública de Navarra) & Ben Gales (U. of Groningen): Capital Stock and Energy Consumption Patterns and Divergence between Europe and Latin America Pablo Astorga (IBEI): Secular Earnings Inequality in Latin America Giovanni Federico (European U. Institute) and Antonio Tena-Junguito (Universidad Carlos III): Independence and Emancipation. Export performance in Latin America and the Caribbean Marc Badia-Miró, Anna & Carreras-Marín (U. de Barcelona), Christopher M. Meissner (U. of California, Davis): Geography, Policy, or Productivity? Interregional Trade in the Southern Cone, Yolanda Blasco (U. de Barcelona) & Wilfried Kisling (U. Carlos III de Madrid): Issuing Banks in Latin America Banks and Economic Growth, a relationship? José Alejandro Peres-Cajías (U. de Barcelona): Public Finances and Natural Resources in Bolivia, Is there a fiscal curse? Chris Absell & Antonio Tena-Junguito (U. Carlos III de Madrid): A reappraisal of Brazilian export growth during the first globalisation Adolfo Meisel (Banco de la República, Colombia): No reversal of fortune in the long run: geography persistence and institutions in Colombia, Elisa Botella Rodríguez (U. de Salamanca): Políticas agrícolas e inserción en el mercado internacional: éxitos y fracasos del modelo Costarricense ( )

2 Sesión 18. El crecimiento económico en América Latina. Una perspectiva de largo plazo (s. XIX y XX). Coordinadores: Marc Badia Miró (Universitat de Barcelona), Anna Carreras Marín (Universitat de Barcelona) y Xavier Tafunell (Universitat Pompeu Fabra). XI AEHE Madrid 2014 Los estudios sobre el crecimiento económico de América Latina en el largo plazo, han proliferado en los últimos años. Pese a ello, el debate alrededor de los factores explicativos de ese crecimiento sigue abierto. Perspectivas complementarias a las tradicionales como los estudios regionales, sumado a la aparición de nuevas evidencias cuantitativas, permiten, por un lado, avanzar en la resolución de estas preguntas, y por el otro, abrir nuevas cuestiones que parecían cerradas. El objetivo de la sesión consiste en discutir desde distintas aproximaciones, la evidencia cuantitativa que sostiene estas visiones de largo plazo sobre el crecimiento económico latinoamericano. Desde esta perspectiva se dará prioridad a trabajos basados en: - Nuevas evidencias cuantitativas de largo plazo (s. XIX y XX), de uno o varios países, que hagan posible la comparación internacional de la región y, a su vez, permitan el objetivo de situar América Latina en el contexto internacional. - El análisis del efecto de la desigualdad sobre el crecimiento de América Latina, considerando indistintamente la desigualdad geográfica y la desigualdad en la distribución personal del ingreso. Los estudios de regionales comparativos entre distintos países de América Latina serán especialmente valorados. - El papel de los recursos naturales en las economías de América Latina y el cuestionamiento del rol del capital natural en la evolución económica de la región. Es la dependencia en los recursos naturales la que ha condenado a la región al subdesarrollo? - Análisis de la inserción de América Latina en los mercados internacionales de bienes, con el objetivo de evaluar el papel del comercio internacional como generador de oportunidades o dependencias al crecimiento económico. - El papel de la industrialización en el desarrollo económico de largo plazo. Hubo desindustrialización durante el período de la I Globalización? Qué papel jugó durante el período de la ISI? Y durante el último tercio del s. XX coincidiendo con la progresiva liberalización de la economía? Organizadores: Marc Badia Miró (Universitat de Barcelona), Anna Carreras Marín (Universitat de Barcelona) y Xavier Tafunell (Universitat Pompeu Fabra). de contacto: mbadia@ub.edu

3 Listado de ponencias: Productividad Total de los Factores en la agricultura latinoamericana: un análisis comparativo de la segunda mitad del XX. Miguel Martín-Retortillo (Universidad de Zaragoza), Vicente Pinilla (Universidad de Zaragoza), Jackeline Velazco (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú), Henry Willebald (Universidad de la República). Resumen: Latinoamérica es una de las regiones que más crecimiento económico está experimentando en la actualidad, frente a la crisis económica que están sufriendo los países del primer mundo. El sector agrario de estos países y sus exportaciones son una parte fundamental en el crecimiento de esta región. Aun así, le queda un largo recorrido para alcanzar los niveles de desarrollo de los países avanzados, a pesar de las mejoras en que se han producido a lo largo de la segunda mitad del siglo XX. El sector agrario a lo largo de este período ha sufrido profundas transformaciones. Algunas de estas transformaciones provienen de mejoras técnicas como pueden ser el uso masivo de fertilizantes químicos, la maquinaria agrícola autopropulsada o la selección genética e hibridación de semillas, entre otras. Latinoamérica no ha sido ajena a estas transformaciones en la agricultura. A su vez, podremos observar las diversas consecuencias que han tenido las políticas agrarias llevadas a cabo por cada país, así como sus políticas comerciales, como por ejemplo la formación de Mercado Común del Sur en La distinta adopción de estas transformaciones tanto técnicas como institucionales ha podido establecer ciertas diferencias en el desarrollo agrario. El conocimiento de estas diferencias puede ser empleado para un mejor entendimiento del recorrido de los sistemas agrarios de estos países, así como de su economía en general. Es en la agricultura y en estas diferencias donde queremos concentrar nuestro análisis. Queremos observar y contabilizar a qué se debe el crecimiento de la producción agraria. Esta variable se ha incrementado anualmente más de un 3% en los últimos 50 años en esta región del continente americano. Más concretamente, observar si los incrementos en la producción agraria se han debido a aumentos en el uso de los factores productivos, y cuáles de ellos han sido más importantes, o si se han debido a ganancias de eficiencia e incrementos en la productividad total de los factores de los países latinoamericanos estudiados. Para ello, será necesario calcular los crecimientos en los factores productivos del sector agrario de estos países, así como las ganancias en la productividad total. Por tanto, nuestro objetivo persigue conocer y analizar las causas del desarrollo agrario en América Latina. Para la consecución de nuestro objetivo mediremos la producción agraria por países con variables homogéneas para su comparación, así como la tierra empleada, el stock de animales vivos, el uso de fertilizantes químicos y maquinaria, el área equipada para el regadío y el capital humano. Calculando la diferencia del crecimiento de la producción con los incrementos en los factores productivos, podremos obtener la productividad total en la agricultura, aplicando unas ponderaciones a cada input. Con los resultados obtenidos, podremos concluir qué factor ha contribuido en mayor medida al crecimiento productivo en la zona, así como en cada país estudiado. De la misma forma, es posible establecer algunas pautas regionales dentro de América Latina. Podremos así establecer un análisis comparativo sobre el desarrollo agrario en la segunda mitad del siglo XX en América Latina. A su vez, podremos establecer ciertas comparaciones con los países europeos en cuanto a su modelo de desarrollo agrario. Palabras clave: historia agraria, agricultura Latinoamérica, productividad agraria, desarrollo agrario. Capital Stock and Energy Consumption Patterns and Divergence between Europe and Latin America Rick Hölsgens (University of Groningen), Cristián Ducoing (Universidad de Valparaíso), Mar Rubio (Universidad Pública de Navarra), and Ben Gales (University of Groningen). Resumen: The economic divergence between Latin America and developed countries is one of the big questions in economic history research. Nevertheless, some important aspects have not been studied in deep. One of these "dark zones" is the relation between energy patterns and capital intensity. This article intends to fill the gap using the newest available series of capital stock in machinery equipment and energy consumption for Latin America and comparing them with the studies about the developed world (Western Europe). Energy intensity could be a predictor of economic growth, thus providing us with answers about the timing and causes of different modernization patterns in these regions.

4 Secular Earnings Inequality in Latin America. Pablo Astorga (IBEI). Resumen: Despite a sustained reduction in income disparities during the last decade or so Latin America is still one of the most unequal regions in the world (López & Perry, 2008). High-inequality levels were first properly recorded in the1970s as a result of the implementation of comprehensive and consistent household budget surveys across the region. And according to authors in the institutionalist approach (Engerman & Sokoloff, 2000, 2002; Robinson & Sokoloff, 2004) the condition may have changed little since the colonial times. However, this claim of high secular inequality is somehow at odds with findings during the first globalisation that indicates a rising trend in inequality from circa 1870 to 1920 in countries in the Southern Cone (Williamson, 1999, Bértola et al., 2009). Moreover, Dobado and Garcia (2010) show that circa 1820 Mexico, Bolivia and Colombia were not especially unequal in an international comparison. And Milanovic et al, (2010) argue, based on estimates of maximum possible inequality levels, that countries such as Brazil and Peru circa 1870 were not more unequal that other economies in the preindustrial era. And although in recent years there have been important efforts in quantifying inequality over the long run in the region (Williamson, 1999 & 2002; Prados de la Escosura, 2007; Frankema, 2010 & 2013, Willebald, 2011), the truth is that still there is little evidence on what happen with income inequality prior to1970, and in particularly during the middle decades of the last century. The purpose of this paper is to present, discuss and document new consistent series of yearly earnings inequality for four occupational categories in six leading Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela) since 1900 using a newly assembled dataset of real wages. This work is a continuation of a previous effort by FitzGerald (2008). Our approach differentiates labour by skill level (unskilled rural workers; semi-skilled urban workers; and relatively skilled urban workers) and allows for changing sectoral allocation of the labour force over time. Profits and rents are taken into account, calculated as a residual. This information makes possible the calculation of between-groups earning inequality Ginis with the potential to inform about trends and turning points in overall income inequality in the six countries. Already preliminary results show that there is a good correlation between our earnings Ginis and those based in household surveys available for a more recent past, which gives some hopes that the new series could also be a good proxy for overall inequality in the first six decades of the last century. Independence and Emancipation. Export performance in Latin America and the Caribbean Giovanni Federico (European University Institute) and Antonio Tena-Junguito (Universidad Carlos III). Resumen: In the early 19th century, after more than three centuries of colonization, the Americas, that includes the Caribbean export economies based on slave plantations, was probably the most open trade region in the world representing almost one-third of total world trade. Colonial legacy in the early political independence of Latin American Republics has been related with violence, political turmoil and negative economic performance for the period previous to On the contrary, the negative performance of the Caribbean Slaves economies in the same period is associated with the emancipation process and trade liberalization in the mother country. Was the post-independent Latin America export performance better than that of the post-emancipated West Indian? Was the abolition of slavery the main cause of the decadence of the Caribbean export plantation economies? A novel aspect of this study is that it analyzes these questions using a comparative base between regions and periods in the Americas and in a global context. Contrary to conventional wisdom this study shows, on one hand, that the independence process, despite its political instability, was not so bad for Ibero-American exports. On the other hand, we also argue that the abolition of slavery, or more specifically, incapacity on most of the plantation economies of the Caribbean to adapt efficiently to a non-forced labor market after emancipation, was probably one of the most remarkable negative shocks for the Americans export economy in the 19th century. Geography, Policy, or Productivity? Interregional Trade in the Southern Cone, Marc Badia-Miró (Universitat de Barcelona), Anna Carreras-Marín (Universitat de Barcelona) and Christopher M. Meissner (University of California, Davis). Resumen: Regional trade in South America since independence has long been much smaller than would be expected if geography were the only constraint on trade. This limitation on market access very likely hampered economic growth in the region. Even in periods like , when large external shocks altered trade patterns with the USA and Europe, South American regional trade remained extremely low (Carreras-Marín et al. 2013). In this paper we find that trade costs--those beyond geography--among

5 South American countries were relatively higher than trade costs between South American countries and core countries. Indeed, this was the main cause behind the failure of these nations to integrate during the period. To support this claim, we present evidence on the level and evolution of a comprehensive set of trade costs, distinguishing between trade costs between a sample of South American countries and those between these countries and their main trade partners outside of the region. We consider trade costs in a broad sense including freight rates, tariffs, non-tariff barriers, information costs, consumer preferences, beachhead costs of establishing new markets etc. We also explore the role of similarity in factor endowments and incomes highlighting that these were not the main culprit. In order to compute trade costs, we follow Jacks et al. (2011) and compute the theoretically appropriate measure of trade costs in general equilibrium. We then go on to compare the evolution of these measures to qualitative and quantitative evidence. As a result we can go deeper into the analysis of the role played by trade costs in explaining the failure of trade integration in the South American Southern Cone between the two world wars. This methodology also allows us to decompose changes in overall trade into changes in income differences, third market forces (i.e., competition from the high-productivity, low-cost industrial core) and bilateral forces related to trade costs. In contrast with the work of Jacks et al. (2010, 2011) we focus on a set of less developed countries in a period of de-globalization. In this context, the shocks of war and economic collapse in the core during the Depression should have made for a more favourable environment for intra-regional economic integration in our sample of South American countries. These external shocks produced an extraordinary opportunity for South America to promote regional integration through the expansion of pre-existing industrial capacity to serve regional markets. Moreover, their proximity compared to European and North American producers should have provided further impetus to this process. We consider the period as a natural experiment to provide clues as to the drivers of regional integration. This is based off the notion that industrialization in the European core and the USA produced intense specialization in food and raw materials in South America during the First Globalization. As demand in these markets shifted and supply of their goods (especially European goods) on international markets dropped in the interwar, nascent South American industry made limited inroads into domestic and foreign markets. This dynamic reveals that both productivity and trade costs broadly defined to include information on market opportunities interacted to limit intra-regional trade. Low productivity led to limited export opportunities but it also generated a protectionist dynamic. The high uncertainty generated by limited political constraints on protective trade policy (e.g., multilateral or bilateral trade agreements) within the region and the possibility of a European and American comeback limited the investment necessary to win intraregional markets. Greater intra-regional trade might have been possible had productivity advanced more quickly or had trade policy been more benign. Key words: Trade integration, Trade Costs, Gravity Model, South American regional Issuing Banks in Latin America Banks and Economic Growth, a relationship? Yolanda Blasco (Universitat de Barcelona) y Wilfried Kisling (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid). Resumen: Principal aim of the study is to analyze and define the relationship between banks and economic development in Latin America during the period of the nineteenth century until World War I. In particular we emphasize on the role of issuing banks in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico and the correlation between money supply and economic growth. The question whether or not exist a positive correlation between banking and economic development has been subject of many investigations (Levine, 2004). There is a host of literature on Latin America s banking history. Many works focus on the development of specific banks, or on their relation to foreign banks. Some deal with the wider perspective, others analyze specific details, such as for example banks and textile production (Haber, 1997), but only a few do it by way of comparison within a small but distinct group of countries. Comparative approaches about banking and economic development in Latin America seem to be scarce, or may not exist at all. However, the potential of a comparative approach has been demonstrated by many studies throughout the social sciences. The classic studies of A. Gerschenkron (1963) and R. Cameron (1967; 1972) on the relationship of banks and economic development in Europe were groundbreaking for a better understanding of different banking systems and their role in economic progress. Banks may contribute to the growth of an economy by facilitating means of payment (Tobin, 1965). Until today there do not exist any series of monetary supply, created by the banks, in countries of our interest for the period of nineteenth century until World War I. Our purpose is to measure the amount of means of payment issued by the operating issuing banks. We then intend to measure and compare the impact of the different levels of the fiat money supply on the economic growth of the respective countries.

6 Public Finances and Natural Resources in Bolivia, Is there a fiscal curse? José Alejandro Peres-Cajías (Universitat de Barcelona). Resumen: Non-renewable natural resources exports have represented, on average, 80% per cent of Bolivian total exports since post-independence years. During some years, moreover, one single product silver, tin or natural gas- has represented at least half of Bolivian exports. This paper aims analyzing if this export s concentration has affected the long-term evolution of Bolivian public finances through the socalled Rentier State hypothesis (Ross, 1999). This idea stresses that natural resources exploitation tends to generate a short-term increase in Government s revenues but also a reduction in the aggregate tax base, which hampers the long-term sustainability of public finances. This hypothesis is tested through three different strategies: contrasting the ratio on natural resources taxes to total revenues in Bolivia and other Latin American, African and Asian countries from 1880 to 2010; analyzing the plausibility of a long term co-integration between different fiscal variables and the Bolivian export price basket from 1910 to 2010; and, testing the existence of a long term trade-off between natural resources taxes and non-natural resources taxes during three different periods of time ( ; ; ; see Bornhorst, Gupta and Thorton, 2009). A reappraisal of Brazilian export growth during the first globalisation Chris Absell (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) y Antonio Tena-Junguito (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid). Resumen: Brazil export growth in the second half of the XIX century is considered one of the most relevant variables in order to understand the main characteristics of Brazil long-run modern economic growth properly. The lack of accuracy of the official export series, especially the relative official values used, lies behind some of the controversies and doubts of the historiography when addressing the causes and consequences of Brazil not outstanding international growth performance during the globalization years. We have used empirical evidence to test the accuracy of quantities and value exports records between 1850 to 1913, first, according to their import partners records in the XX century and, second, according to international market prices along the whole period. Results show that the hypothesis of export price undervaluation bias is correct. In the light of these results we reconstructed a new Brazil export f.o.b values and price index using international prices valued in pounds sterling which allows us to offer a new proposal indicating a more dynamic Brazil export growth especially during the Belle Époque years. No reversal of fortune in the long run: geography persistence and institutions in Colombia, Adolfo Meisel (Banco de la Republica, Colombia). Resumen: The reversal of fortune thesis proposed by Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson (AJR) has received much attention. These authors have argued that in the last 500 years that is since the beginning of the European expansion in the newly colonized areas there was a reversal of fortune whereby the formerly rich regions became the poorer ones. They attribute this shift to the nature of the institutions imposed by the colonizers. In the rich regions the Europeans established very exploitative institutions, which have persisted through time, and impoverished its population in the long-run. From this empirical result they conclude that geography plays a very limited role in determining the spatial distribution of prosperity. Since geography has changed very little over the last 500 years, according to AJR the reversal of fortune results in a validation of the negligible role of geography for economic growth in the long-run. There are several problems with AJR s reversal of fortune thesis from and empirical perspective. One of them is the quality of the data they present. There are several recent papers that discus this aspect of their work. In this paper we take a different approach and analyze for the case of what is now Colombia, the spatial location of the population and how the pattern observed at the beginning of the European colonization evolved through time. We use demographic information starting in 1560, that is from the period close to the beginning of Spanish colonization, through For each year we have more than 600 observations, and we have demographic information for sixteen years during the time span studied. The results show a strong persistence of the population pattern, that is no reversal of fortune, and a strong relation of that pattern with geographic variables. Thus we can conclude that geography also matters for the long-run prosperity of regions.

7 Políticas agrícolas e inserción en el mercado internacional: éxitos y fracasos del modelo Costarricense ( ). Elisa Botella Rodríguez (Universidad de Salamanca). Resumen: Este artículo analiza la evolución de las políticas agrícolas costarricenses desde los años 60 bajo el modelo de Industrialización por Sustitución de Importaciones (ISI) hasta su progresiva inserción en el mercado internacional durante los años 80 y 90 del siglo XX. Basándose en un modelo de dependencia de las exportaciones tradicionales (principalmente café y plátano) en los años 50 y 60, Costa Rica a partir de los años 80 se orienta hacia un modelo outward-looking development. En este sentido, se implementan una serie de políticas económicas centradas en el mercado internacional, fundamentalmente la promoción de la inversión extranjera directa y la liberalización comercial durante la década de los 80 y 90 dejando de lado la agricultura tradicional y los granos básicos fundamentales en las décadas anteriores. Este tipo de políticas económicas sin embargo, condicionaron el desarrollo agrario y rural del país así como los principales actores del sector a partir de los años 80. El sector agrícola costarricense con gran potencial para las exportaciones agrarias no tradicionales, la producción interna de granos básicos y productos tradicionales como el azúcar, el plátano y el café piedra angular de la política agrícola y económica hasta mediados de los años 70, quedarán relegados a un segundo plano. De esta manera a partir de 1990 las políticas agrícolas estarán subordinadas a las políticas económicas de liberalización comercial. En este sentido, el gobierno costarricense comenzó a promover la agricultura de cambio basada en la promoción de las exportaciones no tradicionales y el desmantelamiento de la producción interna de granos básicos, menos lucrativa y con bajo potencial en el mercado internacional. El estado retiró drásticamente el apoyo no sólo a los productos tradicionales, especialmente granos básicos, sino también a los agricultores familiares, hasta los años 70 con un gran peso en el agro nacional. Las políticas agrícolas de esta manera y supeditadas al modelo de desarrollo outward-looking, terminaron reduciendo el papel de las instituciones agrarias destinadas al mercado doméstico, especialmente sus funcionarios y presupuesto, promoviendo la reconversión productiva y el desarrollo rural centrado en la creación de grandes agribusiness con una elevada capacidad de crear empleo rural no agrario en las diferentes provincias del país fuera del Valle Central y eminentemente rurales. En este marco, la investigación comienza desde una dimensión macro, las políticas agrarias durante la ISI ( ) y posteriormente bajo el modelo outward-looking development ( ), examinando los cambios en los sistemas de producción y la estructura de la tierra, hasta descender al nivel micro en el que se evalúan las oportunidades creadas para los pequeños productores del país desde una triple dimensión (marco de análisis de economía política) basada en la literatura de desarrollo agrario y agricultura familiar (por ejemplo, Altieri, 2008; Eastwood et al., 2010; Ellis, 2005; Ellis & Biggs, 2001; Griffin et al. 2002; Hazell, 2011; Hazell et al., 2007; Kay, 2006; Lipton, 2005; Nagayets, 2005; Rosset, 1999).