Olivia Carrillo-Gamboa Rosa Isela Hernández-Zamora Jesús Cantú-Escalante. Tecnológico de Monterrey Monterrey, MEXICO
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1 Performance of Weighted and Non-weighted Estimators in a Cell-phone based Electoral Poll: An Academic Study of the 2012 Presidential Elections in Mexico. Olivia Carrillo-Gamboa Rosa Isela Hernández-Zamora Jesús Cantú-Escalante Tecnológico de Monterrey Monterrey, MEXICO Washington, D.C. November 5th. 2013
2 Study undertaken in the project : Funds by: Observatorio de Medios y Opinión Pública (Media and Public Opinion Observatory ) Tecnológico de Monterrey and Fondo de Observación Electoral 2012 del Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo, PNUD. (Fund for the 2012 elections observation. United Nations Development Programme, UNDP)
3 Study Goal Estimate the electoral results of the 2012 presidential election in Mexico to take place on July 1 st Four registered candidates: JVM; EPN; AMLO; GQT. NATIONAL Pre-election phone survey based on a sample of random cell phone numbers. APPLIED from june 25th to june 28th Interviews 2436 planning to vote for registered candidates.
4 Surveys in Mexico Electoral polls and surveys directed to open adult population in Mexico have being used widely for more than two decades. Most methodologies are based on household sampling procedures and face-to-face interviews. Problem: Nowadays, household communities with restricted or no public access are too common for middle to high socioeconomic levels. COVERAGE of target population should be a concern.
5 Landline phone sample: Telephone Interviews Coverage of target population by landline sampling frames is becoming shorter in time: Households in Mexico with landline phone: 53% in % in 2011 (INEGI, 2007); (INEGI, 2011). Landline population coverage: 19% in 2007 (COFETEL,2013); 17% in 2011 (COFETEL,2013).
6 Telephone Interviews Cell phone sample: Increasing coverage in time (COFETEL, 2013): 64 subscriptions per 100 habitants (December 2007); 87 subscriptions per 100 habitants (June 2012). Reaches citizens from all-profiles and everywhere Good practical results in previous local studies
7 PERCENT OF CASES Sample Description 60.0% Mobile Phone Sample vs Target Population GENDER 50.0% 51.8% 52.2% 48.2% 47.8% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Female GENDER NOMINAL LIST (Citizens with right to vote) Male CELL PHONE SAMPLE
8 PERCENT OF CASES Sample Description 80.0% 75.0% 70.0% 65.0% 60.0% 55.0% 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 69.6% Urban Mobile Phone Sample vs Target Population TYPE OF ZONE 66.9% TYPE OF ZONE NOMINAL LIST (Citizens with right to vote) 30.4% Non urban CELL PHONE SAMPLE 33.1%
9 PERCENT OF CASES Sample Description 60.0% Mobile Phone Sample vs Target Population REGION 55.0% 50.0% 47.8% 49.3% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 26.0% 28.6% 26.2% 25.0% 22.1% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% North Center South REGION NOMINAL LIST (Citizens with right to vote) CELL PHONE SAMPLE
10 Percent of cases Sample Description 40.0% Mobile Phone Sample vs Target Population AGE GROUPS 35.0% 34.5% 30.0% 25.0% 26.0% 25.0% 20.0% 23.8% 18.5% 15.0% 17.0% 12.8% 14.4% 10.0% 7.3% 10.6% 5.0% 4.4% 5.6% 0.0% years years years years years 60+ years AGE GROUP NOMINAL LIST (Citizens with right to vote) CELL PHONE SAMPLE
11 Voting Preferences Age Group JVM EPN AMLO GQT Someone else Undecided Null vote No response Total years years years years years years Total % 29.2% 23.4% 2.7% 0.3% 14.9% 1.2% 9.9% 100.0%
12 Estimates and Official Results ( Effective votes) WEIGHTED AND NON WEIGHTED ESTIMATES vs OFFICIAL RESULTS % % % % % % % % % % JVM EPN % % % % AMLO GQT % % % 5.000% 3.057% 2.350% 3.654% 0.000% Age Weighted Oficial Results Nonweighted
13 Closeness to Official Results: Unweighted estimator performs better COMPARISON OF ESTIMATES vs OFFICIAL RESULTS (Estimate minus Official Result) 2.00% Weighted Estimator Nonweighted Estimator 1.50% 1.37% 1.30% 1.00% 0.71% 0.50% 0.38% 0.00% JVM EPN AMLO GQT -0.50% -1.00% -0.49% -0.98% -0.71% -1.50% -1.59% -2.00%
14 PERCENT OF CASES The Nominal List is NOT the Target Population 40.0% Mobile Phone Sample vs Nominal List Population AGE GROUPS 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% years years years years years 60+ years AGE GROUP NOMINAL LIST (Citizens with right to vote) CELL PHONE SAMPLE
15 PERCENT OF CASES Real Target Population seems YOUNGER (voters from post-electoral survey, n=3171) 40.0% Mobile Phone Sample vs "REAL" Target Population AGE GROUPS 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% years years years years years 60+ years AGE GROUP NOMINAL LIST (Citizens with right to vote) CELL PHONE SAMPLE POST ELECTORAL SURVEY ( Voted for a Registered Candidate)
16 Young votes Younger voters seem to have had a stronger participation than in previous federal (intermediate) elections (IFE, 2011). Some possible explanations of younger voters Events at universities all over the country. Young voters activism: #Yosoy132 movement. Role of internet and social networks (university students AND not students as well).
17 How the mobile point estimates compare to published surveys DIFF EPN * OCG-Nonweighted MERCAEI 0.4% 0.7% María de las Heras/UNOTV * OCG-Weighted Reforma Covarrubias-SDP Noticias Votia 0.8% 1.4% 1.8% 1.8% 2.1% PARAMETRÍA/Sol de México Con Estadística/Grupo Fórmula BGC-Excelsior IPSOS 4.7% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% Buendía &Laredo-El Universal Consulta Mitofsky 5.8% 5.8% GEA-ISA/Milenio Indermerc-Harris-El Financiero 7.7% 8.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%
18 How the mobile point estimates compare to published surveys DIFF AMLO María de las Heras/UNOTV * OCG-Nonweighted Reforma MERCAEI 0.6% 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% * Votia OCG-Weighted Covarrubias-SDP Noticias 1.5% 1.6% 2.4% Consulta Mitofsky IPSOS PARAMETRÍA/Sol de México GEA-ISA/Milenio 3.4% 3.4% 3.7% 3.9% BGC-Excelsior Buendía &Laredo-El Universal 4.4% 4.5% Indermerc-Harris-El Financiero Con Estadística/Grupo Fórmula 5.3% 5.4% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%
19 How the mobile point estimates compare to published surveys DIFF JVM Covarrubias-SDP Noticias * * OCG-Weighted OCG-Nonweighted Con Estadística/Grupo Fórmula BGC-Excelsior IPSOS MERCAEI 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% Buendía &Laredo-El Universal 1.7% Consulta Mitofsky Reforma 2.1% 2.1% PARAMETRÍA/Sol de México 2.5% Votia María de las Heras/UNOTV Indermerc-Harris-El Financiero 3.0% 3.1% 3.3% GEA-ISA/Milenio 3.7% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%
20 How the mobile point estimates compare to published surveys DIFF GQT GEA-ISA/Milenio Buendía &Laredo-El Universal Consulta Mitofsky IPSOS Indermerc-Harris-El Financiero 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% * Votia OCG-Weighted BGC-Excelsior 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% Covarrubias-SDP Noticias * MERCAEI OCG-Nonweighted PARAMETRÍA/Sol de México Con Estadística/Grupo Fórmula Reforma María de las Heras/UNOTV 0.7% 1.0% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%
21 How the mobile point estimates compare to published surveys 20.0% TOTAL DIFFERENCES 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% DIFF GQT DIFF AMLO DIFF EPN DIFF JVM 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% * *
22 PERCENT OF CASES Estimating the worst case (p=0.5) can be seen as of the GENDER proportion estimation. Observed difference: ± 0.4 percent points 60.0% Mobile Phone Sample vs Target Population GENDER 50.0% 51.8% 52.2% 48.2% 47.8% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Female GENDER NOMINAL LIST (Citizens with right to vote) Male CELL PHONE SAMPLE
23 Conclusions Under the conditions applied in the electoral polls reported, cell phone sampling methodology does work for interviewing the open adult population in Mexico. Other than age group, population characteristics are very well reproduced by the samples. Age group-weighted and non-weighted estimators based on the mobile phone samples had an excellent performance with respect to other results published.
24 Conclusions The non-weighted estimator performed better, being closer to the official results. Weighting may not be necessary if the real target population is younger than the census population as in the 2012 presidential pre-electoral survey case.
25 Further Research Validate age group distribution of voting citizens. Upcoming study from IFE on voters profile (IFE, 2012) Analyze published data from exit polls
26 References COFETEL. (2013) Sistema de Información Estadística de Mercados de Telecomunicaciones. Consulted at October 12 th IFE (2011). Estudio Censal Sobre la Participación Ciudana en la Elección Federal de Retrieved october 30 th 2013 from EstudiosInvestigaciones/InvestigacionIFE/Estudio_censal_participaci%C3%B3n_ele ctoral_2009.pdf IFE (2012). Documento CG659/2012. ACUERDO DEL CONSEJO GENERAL DEL INSTITUTO FEDERAL ELECTORAL POR EL QUE SE DETERMINA LA REALIZACIÓN DE ESTUDIOS DE LA DOCUMENTACIÓN ELECTORAL UTILIZADA DURANTE EL PROCESO ELECTORAL FEDERAL Retrieved october 30 th 2013 from
27 References IFE (2012). Foro: Las encuestas electorales, la experiencia de Event in Mexico City on november 22 and 23, v2/secretariaejecutiva/se-varios/2012/foroencuestaselectorales- 2012/Ponencias/Mesa4_UlisesBeltran.pdf Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI). (2007) Estadísticas sobre disponibilidad y uso de tecnología de información y comunicaciones en hogares. Retrieved from< april Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI). (2010) Censos y Conteos de Población y Vivienda Consulted at <www3.inegi.org.mx/sistemas/iter/entidad_indicador.aspx?ev=4> march 13th Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI). (2011, 2012) Estadísticas sobre disponibilidad y uso de tecnología de información y comunicaciones en hogares. Retrieved from < june 13th
28 Olivia Carrillo-Gamboa: Rosa Isela Hernández-Zamora: Jesús Cantú-Escalante:
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