SCALING UP SUSTAINABLE COMMODITY SUPPLAY CHAIN

Transcripción

1 SCALING UP SUSTAINABLE COMMODITY SUPPLY CHAINS KATOOMBA XIX Iguazu Falls, Brazil March 2014 La información contenida en este documento pertenece al Programa de Agronegocios y Alimentos de la FAUBA y al destinatario del documento. La información se relaciona exclusivamente con los comentarios orales realizados en su presentación, y sólo podrá ser utilizada por los asistentes a dicha presentación. La copia, divulgación o distribución no autorizada del material en este documento son prácticas estrictamente prohibidas y pueden ser ilegales. CONFIDENCIAL SCALING UP SUSTAINABLE COMMODITY SUPPLAY CHAIN KATOOMBA XIX IGUAZU FALLS, Brazil, March Agr. Ing. Mag. Sebastian Senesi Director Agribusiness Master University of Buenos Aires 0

2 Content Mercosur as a big supplier XXXX Argentina: Soybean Argentina: Milk Argentina: Beef Conclusion 1

3 The growth rates of the uses of the grain is significantly higher than the production Crecimiento anual promedio PBI/Cápita 7,9% Meat 3,5% Bio-fuels Soybean 2,5% Corn 2,6% 5,1% Fuente: En base a Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Outlook. 2

4 It is projected that 48% of the growth in production of vegetable protein in the world will take place in the MERCOSUR Percentage growth of vegetable protein production Projected growth Only 3% of the world is suitable for agriculture without irrigation Increasing urbanization 3 21 Water Scarcity Desertification and land degradation Stable institutional framework for generating rules 48% of the total growth Fuente: En base a Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Outlook. 3

5 Argentina: The most optimistic projections indicate that annual soybean crop will not exceed 61 million tons in 2020 Millons of tons. Millons of hectares CAGR* Proyección de producción de soja a ,8 53,5 52,2 54,3 +2% 56,2 57,8 59,6 49,9 47,8 48,0 42,9 Planted Area ,9 20,8 19,7 21,4 21,6 21,7 21,9 22,1 22,3 22,4 22,6 Fuente: Elaboración propia en base a Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Outlook. 4

6 Argentina tends to export most of its production of soybeans, while Brazil consumes a large part of it 2014 e, Millons of tons, Soybean and Subproducts inclustocks. Argentina Brasil Share of total production Local 53,5 14% 16,5 83% 29,6 6% Local 83,2 33% 48,0 14% 86% Exportado 86% 94% Exportado 67% 28,0 53% 7,4 62% 38% 47% 7,1 81% 19% Total Grain Meal Oil Total Grain Meal Oil 100% 31% 55% 14% 100% 58% 34% 8% Argentina exports most of its processed into meal and oil production, however... Brazil... tend to consume more of, such as grain and soybean exports and consume processed either as flour or oil The role of biodiesel is crucial to raise domestic oil consumption Fuente: Programa de Agronegocios de la Universidad de Buenos Aires (PAA-UBA) y Associação Brasileira das Indústrias de Óleos Vegetais (ABIOVE). 5

7 In a scenario with idle capacity bargaining power of the oil industry, there will be a strong tension between actors e, Millones de Toneladas. Cosecha disponible para molienda vs. capacidad instalada y utilización aparente de la industria aceitera +50% 55,3 8,6 (16%) 36,9 6,6 6,6 6,6 4,7 3,5 3,3 3,1 2,9 2,3 7,0 (13%) Destiny Meal Total Capacity Cargill Molinos LDC Terminal 6 Bunge Vicentin Oleag. San Lorenzo Noble Nidera AGD Otros Number of Industries The TOP5 concentrates 60% of installed capacity Fuente: Programa de Agronegocios de la Universidad de Buenos Aires (PAA-UBA) 6

8 The bulk of potentially exportable products are consumed domestically (83%) and import targets are atomized 2013, Millons tons. Average annual growth projected for 2022 Production of exportables* Exports Volume Imports Volume Total 41,4 1,4% Total 7,23 1,9% Total 7,23 1,9% European Union USA India New Zeland China 2,7 (7%) 1,7 4%) 4,8 12%) 7,4 (18%) 15,3 37%) 0,7% New Zeland 1,7% European Union 2,7% USA 1,2% Australia 1,9% Argentina 0,47 (7%) 0,41 (6%) 0,87 (12%) 1,94 (27%) 2,52 (35%) 1,5% 1,5% 4,5% 1,0% 2,2% China Russia Saudi Arabia 0,43 (6%) México 0,38 JapónJapan 0,32 0,62 (9%) 1,07 (15%) 3,5% 1,7% -0,5% 1,8% -1,1% Brazil 1,5 1,4% Uruguay 0,13 1,5% Argelia 0,32 0,5% Russia 1,0 1,8% Uckrain 0,07 1,6% Egypt 0,28 4,7% Argentina 0,9 (2%) Australia 0,9 Egipt 0,8 OthersOtros 4,5 0,6% 0,8% 1,8% 1,5% Canadá 0,05 Turkey 0,04 Chile 0,03 Otros** 0,70 USA 0,27 Indonesia 0,24 Philipins Otros*** * Leche en polvo entera y descremada, queso, manteca y suero en polvo. ** En orden de importancia: Turquía, Rusia, Filipinas, Malasia e India y más de 20 países. *** En orden de importancia: Brasil, Unión Europea, Tailandia, Australia y más de 26 países. Fuente: United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) y Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Outlook. -0,6% 1,6% -1,0% 2,5% 0,20 (3%) 3,08 (43%) 1,2% 2,3% 1,9% 1,2% 7

9 Argentina: The main growth of dairy fresh products will outpace and globally in the past decade, but low global impact Índice base 1999, Millones de toneladas. Growth projected milk products 2022 CAGR* Millons ton projected a ,6% -1,7% 1,1% 0,7% 0,9% 1,2% 1,5% Queso Entera en polvo Productos frescos Manteca 0,6 0,3 2,0 0, ,9% 80 1,4% -0,8% -0,1% Descremada en polvo 0,04-3,2% * CAGR: Compound Average Growth Rate, muestra el crecimiento promedio anual punta a punta para un período. Fuente: United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) y Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Outlook. 8

10 Argentina's participation in the world market for beef is not relevant, if the Brazilian 2013; Millons tons.. Producción global Percentage of meat for export Total USA 10,6 (16%) Brazil 10,0 (15%) European Union 7,8 (12%) China 6,5 (10%) Subsahrian Africa 3,8 (6%) India 3,4 (5%) Argentina 2,7 (4%) Australia 2,2 (3%) México 1,8 (3%) Russia 1,7 (3%) 67,2 14% 12% 15% 4% 1% 4% 41% 7% 68% 24% 0% ResoOthers 16,7 (25%) Fuente: Elaboración propia en base a Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Outlook. 16% 9

11 Argentina: The beef production levels will be similar to last years, mainly by institutional arrangements Millones de toneladas. CAGR* Projection to 2020 beef production Massive liquidation of stocks due to drought and price controls Increased export volumes due to lower economic activity 3,2 3,1 14% 3,4 20% -26% 2,6 12% 2,5 10% 2,6 7% 2,7 7% 2,8 14% 2,9 15% 2,8 +2% 3,0 3,2 3,1 3,1 Exportación 83% 86% 80% 88% 90% 93% 93% 86% 85% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% Consumo local Fuente: Elaboración propia en base a Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Outlook. 10

12 Conclusions Argentina will remain a major player as a producer of vegetable proteins. The increase in volume is going to be mainly generated by productivity. However, the increase of 1 million hectares of soybeans will be on new areas, which must comply with the relevant laws. Una visión desde Argentina The pressure to produce more milk and beef will be global and not local. Argentina is one of the few countries in the world able to provide acceptable foods in quantity and quality. This tradition has a strong predisposition towards technological innovation, and also availability of large areas of arable land that can be incorporated. The challenge is to use this opportunity available, without generating social and environmental drama. 11