Retail. Informe de Mercado / Market Report. jll.es. Junio 2015 / June 2015

Transcripción

1 Retail Informe de Mercado / Market Report Junio / June jll.es

2 Retail - Informe de Mercado de Centros Comerciales / Shopping Centres Market Report ECONOMÍA Se acelera el crecimiento de la economía hasta con aumento del PIB PIB Consumo de los Hogares Tasa de Desempleo 2, 2,7% IPC 3,3% 2,4% Ahorro de los Hogares 2% Ventas minoristas -, 1, 9,% 8,7% 1,7% AFLUENCIAS, VENTAS y RENTAS Mejoría de ventas y rentas en Centros Comerciales en 214 Desocupación 214 Rentas Ventas 17% +1% Locales +6,7% e-commerce hasta % M 11% +1% 89% SBA Rentas Prime 214 Ventas minoristas 214 +,1% Afluencias Indice Interanual 214-2, Centro Comercial 87 //mes High Street 228 // mes 2.27 / CC Plata Ventas 214 por tipo de Centro Comercial 3.2 / CC Oro 1.83 / CC Bronce

3 Retail - Informe de Mercado de Centros Comerciales / Shopping Centres Market Report OPERADORES RETAILERS Escasez deaproducto Prime, los retailers se interesan otro tipoofde activos Due to lack of Prime product, the retailers are inpor other type assets Mercado España SpanishenMarket OPERADORES Principales retail en Europa Europe smercados most attractive cities Escasez de producto Prime, los retailers se interesan por otro tipo de activos Mercado en España Principales mercados retail en Europa % 2 2% 46% 2% Gran Consumo Mainstream Premium Lujo Luxury Gran Consumo Premium Densidad comercial SC Density STOCK Y DENSIDAD COMERCIAL During SCs & GLA increased En 214 haythere 682were Centros C. open y la SBA aumento enby Stock de Centros Comerciales actual ystock futuro Current and future Shopping Centre En 214 hay 682 Centros C. y la SBA aumento en Densidad comercial Stock de Centros Comerciales actual y futuro SBA Anual Ampliaciones / II Fase Num. Centros Comerciales Previsiones 1 España Aprox. 36 Approx. 36 por per cada 1. habitantes 1, inhabitants Aprox. 36 por cada 1. habitantes Centro Comercial Shopping Centre Abella Parque Nevada S'Estada Centro Comercial Palma Abella Springs Viladecans Style Outlets Parque Nevada Puerto Mediterráneo S'Estada SBA GLA SBA Provincia region Lugo Granada Provincia Lugo Granada Valencia Apertura Openning 2T Q2 3T Q3 2T Q2 Apertura 4T Q4 2T 4T Q4 3T 2T España Spain 4 Palma Springs Viladecans Style Outlets Puerto Mediterráneo Valencia 4T 4T 218 Num. de Centros Inaugurados Y DENSIDAD STOCK & COMMERCIAL DENSITY Lujo COMERCIAL 3

4 Retail - Informe de Mercado de Centros Comerciales / Shopping Centres Market Report INVERSIÓN 214 año record en Inversión Retail para España: millones Centros Comerciales Sale & Leaseback High Street Otros Retail N. de Centros Comerciales Volumen por pais Millones M Nº Centros Comerciales 4% 6% 3% 11% 3% 1. 8, 7, Q1 Centros Comerciales Parques Comerciales Locales en calle 1T % 14% 1% 41% Finlandia Dinamarca Francia Alemania Irlanda Italia Países Bajos Noruega Polonia Rusia Suecia España 7, 6, 6,7 7% Reino Unido Resto Rentabilidad (%) 6,,, 4,.2 4, 4.2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q RESUMEN EJECUTIVO / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 2 Se prevé durante los años y que el PIB llegue al 2,8 % y al 2,7 %, respectivamente. Spanish GDP is expected to grow by 2. and 2.7% in and, respectively. En cuanto a las Rentas medias (+6,7%) en general se han recuperado levemente respecto al 213. Average rental levels have improved somewhat on 213 (+6.7%). 4 Los operadores siguen centrados en la búsqueda de espacios comerciales prime, pero al no encontrar producto, comienzan a buscar producto más secundario. Retailers remain focused on finding prime retail units. However, in view of the lack of prime products, more secondary products are beginning to attract interest. Las CC.AA con mayores SBA de España son con casi 3,2 M de, Andalucía con 2,9 M de y la Com.Valenciana con algo más de 2 M de. 3 Los CC Prime son los que mejores ventas han registrado durante 214: la venta media se situó en los 3.2 / al año. La división de plata alcanzó los 2.27 / al año y los Centros Comerciales de la categoría bronce, los 1.83 / al año. Prime SC registered the best sales figures in 214: an average sale of 3,2/sqm per annum. Secondary SC reached 2,27/sqm p.a., Terciary SC registered 1,83/sqm p.a. 6 The Regions with the highest GLA are with almost 3.2 M sqm, Andalusia with 2.9 M sqm and Valencia with just over 2 M sqm. En 1T de ya se ha alcanzado casi los 1. M, por lo que de cara al, se espera que la cifra de inversión se sitúe en cifras cercanas o incluso superiores a los 2. M. In 1Q, retail investment amounted to almost 1bn, meaning that the investment figure for as a whole is expected to be around or even in excess of 2.bn.

5 Retail - Informe de Mercado de Centros Comerciales / Shopping Centres Market Report Shopping Centres Market Report June

6 Retail - Informe de Mercado de Centros Comerciales / Shopping Centres Market Report ECONOMY Acceleration of economy growth until due to the GDP increasing GDP Growth Forecast Final consuption households Unemployment rate 2, 2,7% CPI Growth Forecast 3,3% 2,4% Household Saving Rate 2% Retail Sales Forecasts -, 1, 9,% 8,7% 1,7% FOOTFALL, SALES & RENTS Increase of sales and rents in Shopping Centres in Vacancy Rents Sales 17% +1% Shops +6,7% e-commerce until % M 11% +1% 89% GLA Prime Rents Retail Sales +,1% Footfall 214 Y-o-Y Index - 2, Shopping Centre 87 //month High Street 228 // month Average Sales levels by SC Category 2,27 / CC Silver 3,2 / CC Gold 1,83 / CC Bronze

7 Retail - Informe de Mercado de Centros Comerciales / Shopping Centres Market Report RETAILERS RETAILERS Due to a lack of Prime product, the retailers are in other type of assets Due to a lack of Prime product, the retailers are in other type of assets Spanish Market Spanish Market Europe s most attractive cities Europe s most attractive cities % 46% 2% 2% Mainstream Mainstream Premium Premium Luxury Luxury During 214 there were 688 SCs open & GLA increased by During 214 there were 688 SCs open & GLA increased by SC Density SC Density Current and future Shopping Centre Stock Current and future Shopping Centre Stock Annual GLA Extensions / Phases II Num. Shopping Centres Previsiones Approx. 36 per 1, inhabitants Approx. 36 per 1, inhabitants Spain Spain 4 Shopping Centre Abella Shopping Centre Abella Parque Nevada Parque S'EstadaNevada S'Estada Palma Springs Palma Springs Viladecans Style Outlets Viladecans Style Outlets Puerto Mediterráneo Puerto Mediterráneo GLA GLA region region LugoRegion Lugo Granada Granada Valencia Valencia Openning Openning Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q2 Q2 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q Num. of Shopping Centres STOCK & COMMERCIAL DENSITY STOCK & COMMERCIAL DENSITY 7

8 INVESTMENT 214 saw record retail investment for Spain, with a volume of M Shopping Centres Sale & Leaseback High Street Other Retail Num. of Shopping Centres Volume by by country Millions M Nº Shopping Centres 4% 6% 3% 11% 3% Q1 Q1 14% 1% Finland Denmark France Germany Ireland Italy Netherlands Shopping Centres Retail Warehousing Parks High Street Norway Yields (%) 8, 7, 7, 6, 6,, 6,7 7% % 41% Poland Czech Republic Sweden Spain United Kingdom Other,.2 4, 4, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Contacts Luis Iñiguez Director Retail Division Luis.iniguez@eu.jll.com Sergio Fernandes Head of Shopping Centres Retail Division Sergio.fernandes@eu.jll.com Paloma Olazabal Retail Leasing Director Retail Division Paloma.olazabal@eu.jll.com JLL Offi ces Pº de la Castellana, 79-4ª / 13-1ª 2846 Tel.: Pº de Gracia 11, esc A, 4ª 87 Tel.: Sevilla S. Fco. Javier, 2, 3ª Tel.: jll.es jllinmuebles.es jllestudiosmercado.es COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC.. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them.