Entidades Financieras: Desaceleración. Valeria Azconegui AVP Analyst

Transcripción

1 Entidades Financieras: Desaceleración Económica y Regulación Creciente Valeria Azconegui AVP Analyst

2 Agenda I. Fundamentos de la perspectiva negativa II. III. IV. Entorno operativo Indicadores del sistema Calificaciones de bancos en la región V. Conclusiones 2

3 1 Fundamentos de la perspectiva negativa 3

4 Fundamentos de la perspectiva negativa Entorno Operativo DESMEJORANDO (-) El gobierno adopta medidas intervencionistas que desalientan la inversión. Restricciones a las importaciones, controles de capital, expectativas de devaluación y alta inflación continúan desalentando la inversión y debilitando el crecimiento, a pesar de los elevados precios de los commodities. (-) El crecimiento del PIB real proyectado para 2013 es del 3%, influenciado por el desempeño de Brasil y la expectativa de una buena cosecha agrícola. Calidad de Activos DESMEJORANDO (-) La menor actividad económica junto con el sostenido nivel de inflación deterioran el poder adquisitivo de los deudores. Los préstamos en situación irregular se mantienen relativamente bajos al 1,6% del total, pero crecen en términos nominales. (-) El crédito dirigido a empresas y PyMes se ha convertido en un desafío en un mercado altamente competitivo. (=) De acuerdo a nuestros escenarios de estrés, los bancos registran niveles de previsiones y capital suficientes para absorber pérdidas por préstamos y respaldar el crecimiento de la cartera. Fondeo y Liquidez DESMEJORANDO (-) Estructura de fondeo de corto plazo dada la frágil confianza del depositante limita las oportunidades de negocio y es vulnerable a los movimientos del mercado y a la política cambiaria. (=) Bajo costo de fondeo dada la importante contribución de depósitos a la vista, junto a plazos fijos a tasa real negativa. Los activos líquidos representan 45% de los depósitos totales. (-) ANSES es el principal integrante del mercado de capitales, posee un tercio del total del fondeo del sistema, influenciando la tasa de fondeo promedio. Rentabilidad y Eficienciai i (-) Se espera que el volumen de negocios y las ganancias se debiliten dada la desaceleración de la DESMEJORANDO O demanda da de préstamos, los topes en las comisiones o y en las tasas de algunas agu aslíneas de negocios, os, junto con crecientes gastos de estructura, mora y competencia. Soporte Sistémico ESTABLE (=) A pesar de la débil posición fiscal del gobierno y el alto riesgo soberano, continuamos asignando soporte sistémico a las calificaciones de los bancos más importantes del sistema. Eliminamos el soporte sistémico de las calificaciones de las obligaciones subordinadas, dado que el regulador tiene la capacidad legal de imponer pérdidas sobre tenedores de deuda subordinada. 4

5 2 Entorno operativo 5

6 Entorno Operativo Desafiante GDP Growth Salary Index (INDEC) 30% 26,1% 25% 20,6% 20,5% 23,6% 22,1% 23,4% 20% 15% 15,6% 10% 8,7% 9,2% 8,9% 6,8% 5% 0% 3,0% 1,9% 0,9% F Source: Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) and INDEC 6

7 Entorno Operativo Desafiante Foreign-Exchange Reserves $ billions Jul-09 jan-10 Jul-10 jan-11 Jul-11 jan-12 Jul-12 jan-13 Jul-13 Source: Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) 7

8 3 Indicadores del sistema 8

9 Balance de corto plazo y con moderada concentración Families Services Manufacturing Others, 9,6% Mortgages, 9,4% Pledged- back loans, 6,4% Consumer Finance (Personal Loans and Credit Cards), 36,6% 100% 90% 80% 70% Agribusiness Commerce Construction Utilities Others 60% 50% Overdrafts, 15,2% 40% 30% Promissory Notes, 22,8% 20% 10% 0% jun-13 Source: Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) 9

10 Moderado crecimiento: consumo y crédito dirigido Consumer finance (personal loans + credit cards - ARS Left Axis) Comercial Loans (overdrafts + receivables - ARS Left Axis) Secured Loans (Car loans and Mortgages - ARS Left Axis) US Dollar denominated Loans ($ Right Axis) $ Billion ARS billions dic-10 ene-11 feb-11 mar-11 abr-11 may-11 jun-11 jul-11 ago-11 sep-11 oct-11 nov-11 dic-11 ene-12 feb-12 mar-12 abr-12 may-12 jun-12 jul-12 ago-12 sep-12 oct-12 nov-12 dic-12 ene-13 feb-13 mar-13 abr-13 may-13 jun-13 Source: Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA)

11 Moderado crecimiento: consumo y crédito dirigido 16% Quarterly Loan Growth 100% Loans to GDP % 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Mar-09 Jun-09 13,6% 12,7% 10,6% 9,1% 9,0% 9,3% 8,1% 8,1% 7,3% 6,8% 5,7% 5,6% 4,8% 4,2% 3,1% 2,5% 17% 1,7% Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12-0,4% Source: Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Mexico Paraguay Uruguay Source: World Bank 11

12 Creciente mora frente a importantes niveles de previsiones i LLR / NPLs (RHS - Right Axis) Corporate NPLs (Left Axis) Nominal NPLs - left axis NPL to gross loans - right axis 4,0% Consumer NPLs (Left Axis) 180% 8,5 4% 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 3,7% 2,3% 2,6% 2,2% 2,8% 3,0% 170% 160% 150% 140% ARS billions 7,5 6,5 3% 2% NPLs / Gross Loans 1,5% 130% 5,5 1,0% 1,2% 0,8% 1,0% 1,0% 120% 4,5 1% 0,5% 110% 0,0% jul-13 Source: Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) 100% 3,5 an-10 ar-10 ay-10 ul-10 ep-10 ov-10 an-11 ar-11 ay-11 ul-11 ep-11 ov-11 an-12 ar-12 ay-12 ul-12 ep-12 ov-12 an-13 ar-13 ay-13 ul-13 Ja Ma Ma J Se No Ja Ma Ma J Se No Ja Ma Ma J Se No Ja Ma Ma J 0% 12

13 Indice de confianza del consumidor Vs. Mora en consumo Retail NPLs % - LHS UTDT - Consumer Confidence Index - RHS 6,0% 60 5,5% 5,0% 55 4,5% 4,0% 50 3,5% 3,0% 45 2,5% 2,0% 40 1,5% 1,0% 35 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 13

14 Indice de la industria Vs. Mora en préstamos a empresas Corporate NPLs % - LHS Monthly Industrial Index 6,0% 145 5,0% % 4,0% 125 3,0% 115 2,0% ,0% 85 0,0% 75 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 14

15 Adecuado nivel de capitalización 16% Tier 1 Unemployment NPLs / Gross Loans 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 8,4% 7,5% 6,7% 6,9% 7,2% 4% 3,0% 2% 1,8% 1,2% 1,5% 1,7% 0% jul-13 Source: Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) 15

16 Fondeo creciente influenciado por la evolución del tipo de cambio Public Sector Deposits Current Accounts Saving Accounts Time Deposits Other Deposits Total Deposits RS Billions A jul-13 Source: Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) 16

17 Los préstamos crecen más rápido que los depósitos Total Loans (Left Axis) Total Deposits (Left Axis) Loans to Deposits (Right Axis) % % ARS Billions % 50% 40% 30% 20% % 0 0% Source: Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) 17

18 Fuentes de ingresos Loan Income Fee Income Securities Income FX Holding Income Other Revenues 100% 90% 2% 4% 4% 3% 4% 6% 4% 5% 5% 7% 80% 26% 26% 21% 19% 17% 70% 60% 50% 31% 31% 32% 31% 31% 40% 30% 20% 34% 35% 37% 42% 42% 10% 0% jul-13 Source: Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) 18

19 Ingreso neto sobre activos ponderados por riesgo 5,0% 2009 YE 2010 YE 2011 YE 2012 YE 4,5% 4,0% 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 20% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% ARGENTINA BOLIVIA BRAZIL CHILE COLOMBIA PARAGUAY PERU URUGUAY Source: Moody's banking Financial Metrics 19

20 Modesto nivel de eficiencia 50 Operating Expense (left axis) Operating Expenses / Assets (right axis) 8,0% 45 6,9% 7,0% ,6% 5,8% 6,0% 6,0% 30 50% 5,0% ARS Billions ,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% jul-13 0,0% Source: Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) 20

21 4 Calificaciones de bancos en la región 21

22 Calificaciones promedio de los bancos en la región Aaa BCA Parental / Coop Support RLG / Systemic Support Aa2 A1 A3 Baa2 Ba1 Ba3 B2 Caa1 Caa3 C Argentina (Caa1) Brazil (Baa2) Bolivia (B1) Chile (A1) Mexico (Baa1) Uruguay (Baa3) Colombia (Baa3) Guatemala (Ba2) Peru (Baa2) Colombia (Baa3) Panama (Baa3) Paraguay (B1) Source: Moody's banking Financial Metrics 22

23 5 Conclusiones 23

24 Conclusiones» Controles desalientan las oportunidades de negocios» Volatilidad del fondeo minorista ante expectativas de cambios en la política cambiaria» Rentabilidad ajustada en términos reales: Menor volumen de negocios dado un nivel de actividad moderado Menor poder adquisitivo genera crecientes cargos por incobrabilidad Crédito dirigido creciente a tasas por debajo de las de mercado Menores ingresos por comisiones Costo de fondeo en alza Crecientes gastos operativos 24

25 Banking Team: Buenos Aires: Valeria Azconegui, AVP-Analyst New York Celina Vansetti, Managing Director Fernando Albano, AVP-Analyst Christian Pereira, Associate Analyst Juan Ignacio Ledesma Padilla, Associate Analyst Daniel Marchetto, Associate Analyst 25

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