Perspectivas de Mercado Trigo. Diciembre, 2017

Transcripción

1 Perspectivas de Mercado Trigo Diciembre, 2017

2 Introducción Contexto Histórico Análisis Fundamental Análisis Estacional Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 2

3 Contexto Histórico 3 3

4 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

5 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

6 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging Insert Comparative WK Chart from Website

7 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

8 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

9 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

10 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

11 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

12 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

13 Análisis Fundamental 13 13

14 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

15 Análisis Fundamental 2017/18 Ending Stocks Estimates December November USDA Average Range USDA USDA Corn Soybeans Wheat Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

16 1,000 Metric Tons U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks (Updated December 12, ,000 Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

17 1,000 Metric Tons 45,000 40,000 U.S. Domestic Wheat Consumption (Updated December 12, 2017 Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 35,000 30,000 Food, Seed, and Industrial Use Feed Use 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

18 1,000 Metric Tons U.S. Wheat Exports (Updated December 12, ,000 Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

19 Análisis Fundamental Conjunto de los trigos 45.5% Mbu 1.7% Mbu Trigo duro rojo de invierno 53.7% Mbu 1.6% Mbu Trigo duro rojo de primavera 31.8% Mbu 2.5% Mbu Trigo suave rojo de invierno 77.4% Mbu 3.9% Mbu Produccion de Trigo de Invierno (Millones de bushels) Conjunto de los trigos de Invierno Trigo duro rojo de invierno Trigo duro rojo de primavera Trigo suave rojo de invierno Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

20 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

21 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

22 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

23 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

24 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

25 As/of 12/12/2017 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

26 Oferta y Demanda Global Cociente inventarios/usos mundial Producción fuera de los EE.UU. Uso interno mundial

27 Crop Year World Wheat Balance Sheet in Million Metric Tons Beginning Análisis Fundamental 2017/2018 December, 2017 Supply Use Ending Region Stocks Production Imports Feed Exports Stocks Stocks/Use World % United States Major Exporters Argentina Australia Canada EU Major Importers Brazil China Selected Middle East North Africa Pakistan SE Asia Selected Other India FSU Russia Kazakstan Ukraine Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

28 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

29 1,000 Metric Tons World Wheat Ending Stocks (Updated December 12, ,000 Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 250, , , ,000 50, Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

30 World Wheat Stocks/Use Ratio 45% (Updated December 12, % 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 0% Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

31 1,000 Metric Tons Major Foreign Wheat Producers (Updated December 12, ,000 Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 450, ,000 Russia FSU -12 Australia Argentina Canada E.U. 350, , , , , ,000 50, Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

32 1,000 Metric Tons 200, ,000 Major Foreign Wheat Exporters (Updated December 12, 2017 Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 160, ,000 Russia FSU-12 Australia Argentina Canada E.U. 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

33 1,000 Metric Tons 90,000 80,000 Major Foreign Wheat Importers (Updated December 12, 2017 Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 70,000 60,000 Middle East Southeast Asia North Africa 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

34 Análisis Estacional 34

35 Tendencia Estacional Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

36 Tendencia Estacional Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

37 Tendencia Estacional Commodity & Ingredient Hedging

38 Diseño y Administración de Coberturas Políticas de Coberturas & Procedimientos de Presentación de Informes Guías de Modelos Para Tomar Decisiones de Precios Evaluación de Riesgo Educación y Entrenamiento Mike Shawver VP New Business Development 120 South LaSalle St. Suite 2200 Christian Villamil Client Service Manager Chicago, IL USA Arturo Zavala Account Executive Tel: Carlos Silva Account Executive Fax: buyer@cihedging.com There is a risk of loss in futures trading. The information contained in this publication is taken from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC as to accuracy or completeness, and is intended for purposes of information and education only. Nothing therein should be considered as a trading recommendation by Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. The rules and regulations of the individual exchanges should be consulted as the authoritative source on all contract specifications and regulations. There is a risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Copyright 2017 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved. 38 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging