Papel de la UE en la evolución reciente del sector porcino Luis Carazo Jiménez, Jefe de la Unidad "Producciones Animales", DG AGRI

Transcripción

1 Papel de la UE en la evolución reciente del sector porcino Luis Carazo Jiménez, Jefe de la Unidad "Producciones Animales", DG AGRI II Foro INTERPORC Madrid, 19 Octubre 2015

2 Un marco legislativo liviano Sin compras publicas de intervención Sin ayudas directas Sin precios de referencia en definitiva, un sector orientado al mercado Donde estan hoy las principales fundamentos? (Alimentación, precios, márgenes, producciones) DG AGRI C3 22 October 2015

3 World cereal prices ($/t) $ / tonne Wheat - US SRW Gulf $ 212 Wheat - Black Sea Milling $ 183 Wheat - FR Cl. 1 Rouen $ 178 Maize - US 3YC Gulf $ 174 Barley-FR Dlvd Rouen feed $ 169 Maize - FR Bordeaux $ no

4 Soybeans export prices $/ton (fob) $ / tonne Brazil Paranagua - $ 366 US 2Y Gulf - $ 355 Ukraine - $ 348 Argentina Up River - $ / / / / / / / / /2015

5 Price of Basic Ingredients Euro / tonne Soft wheat (EU) Barley (EU) Maïs ( EU) Soja (CAF ) Hulls (EU) Jan April Juil Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct

6 Evolution of the EU pig carcase prices / 100kg The prices for 2014 and 2015 in this graph are the weighted average of classes S, E & R /100 kg 120 Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec AVG (10-14)

7 55 Evolution of the EU average piglet prices /piece /piece Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec AVG (10-14)

8 Development of producer margins (pig price over feed costs) 300 Euro/ 10 0 k g ( pig carcase) Margin/ Comp. Feed (4.4 > 3.9) Carcase price average Margin (49,92 /10 0 k g ) Cereals and Soja mix Compound feed uro/ T (Cereal & Soja mix/ Compound feed) NB: Comp. Feed 2014 = Forecast as from June Cereal mix and Pig carcase price: = expectations as from July 2015.

9 Do Note: New Graph. Cost centre accounting Development of pig fattners margins (pig price over cost for feed plus piglet) Euro/ 10 0 k g for pig carcase and /T for C om poundfeed Margin/ Comp. Feed (FCR = 2,9) + p iglet Compound feed / T Carcase price average Margin (30,76 /10 0 k g ) Piglet price ( / head) Piglet price uro/ Head NB: Comp. Feed 2014 = Forecast as from June 2015, based on Cereal futures prices Pig carcase price: = expectations as from August (Basis March 2015 experts forecasts) Piglet price forecast: DG AGRI C3

10 + 4,0% EU pigmeat slaughter (in heads) by quarter (2015 Forecast from August) (Forecast based on GIP and Experts Estimations) + 2,0% + 0,0% - 2,0% - 4,0% Source= Eurostat - 6,0% Pigmeat Q1-0,9% - 1,6% + 1,0% + 4,3% Pigmeat Q2-1,6% + 0,4% - 0,7% + 2,4% Pigmeat Q3-5,5% + 0,8% + 3,0% + 1,7% Pigmeat Q4-2,5% + 1,3% + 2,7% + 1,8% EU_28-2,6% + 0,2% + 1,5% + 2,5%

11 In 1000 heads In 1000 heads Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat EU pig slaughter by year EU pig slaughter by year (Forecasts based on GIP & Experts estimations) (Forecasts based on GIP & Experts estimations) F o r e c a s t F o r e c a s t

12 Pig population Survey May- June head Piglets, less than 20 kg Source: Eurostat Pigs, from 20 kg to less than 50 kg Breeding sows Covered Sows Sows covered for the first time Fattening pigs, from 50 kg to less than 80 kg

13 Change in pig population May- June 2014 compared to May- June 2015 Data from - BE- DK- DE- IE- ES- FR- IT- HU- NL- AT- PL- RO- SE- UK + 4.0% + 3.4% + 3.0% + 2.0% + 1.0% + 1.8% + 1.1% + 0.5% + 0.0% - 1.0% - 2.0% - 0.6% - 0.7% - 3.0% - 4.0% - 3.4% - 5.0% Source: Eurostat Live swine, domestic species Piglets, less than 20 kg Pigs, from 20 kg to less than 50 kg Breeding sows Covered Sows Sows Fattening covered for pigs, from 50 the first time kg to less than 80 kg

14 Change in Pig Slaughter (in heads) Jan- June 2015 compared to Jan- June ,0% + 20,0% + 10,0% + 20,9% + 12,3% + 9,1% + 7,9% + 7,8% + 7,6% + 7,3% + 6,5% + 5,4% + 4,4% + 3,7% + 2,9% + 2,4% + 2,0% + 1,4% + 1,2% + 0,9% + 0,7% + 0,2% + 0,0% Source= Eurostat + 3,3% - 10,0% - 20,0% - 0,9% - 1,2% - 2,4% - 3,8% - 4,2% - 7,7% - 11,6% - 26,4% - 30,0% BG HR HU NL ES IE PT EE PL RO UK LT DE SE DK BE SI FR CY FI AT LU LV GR CZ IT MT SK EU

15 Resumimos? Los precios al productor se encuentran a niveles bajos y, a pesar de que el coste de la alimentacion es moderado, los margenes de los ganaderos son estrechos. Sin embargo, los efectos de los buenos precios de 2013/14 se siguen notando, con una oferta de carne de cerdo importante, que contribuye a mantener la presion sobre los precios al productor. DG AGRI C3 22 October 2015

16 En esa situacion El buen funcionamiento de las exportaciones es esencial para asegurar un nivel correcto de precios internos. El balance global es satisfactorio, pero los efectos del doble embargo ruso (peste porcina y medidas politicas), el principal cliente tradicional de la UE, siguen pesando sobre el mercado. DG AGRI C3 22 October 2015

17 Weekly average Pigprices in Euro/ 100kg carcase EU, Brazil and the US US EU CDN 133,06 BR 116, EU = weighted a vg of MS prices gra de E <55% lea n mea t. As from % cla ss E a nd 58%S. US = week ly USDA prices ca rca se lea n hogs Iowa - Minn l b BR = a vg of ma ximum prices in ma in producing sta tes (suino.com.br) CDN= Onta rio Dressed weight FOBas from dec 2010, before Index 100 (a gr.gc.ca ) EU US Braz. avg CDN Ontario

18 EU trade of PIG products IMPORTS EXPORTS Jan-Jul Tonnes product weight.

19 Main Importers of PIG Products (up to July) Source : GTA & Eurostat (excl. live animals) China + H. Kong Japan Mexico (up to Jun) United States South Korea Russia (up to Jun) Canada Australia Philippines (up to May) Singapore (up to Jun) China + H. Kong Japan Mexico (up to Jun) United States South Korea Russia (up to Jun) Canada Australia Philippines (up to May) Singapore (up to Jun) Qty in 1000 Tonnes 2014 (up to July) 2015 (up to July) 0

20 Main Exporters of PIG Products (up to July) Source : GTA & Eurostat (excl.live animals) EU EU United States United States Qty in 1000 Tonnes Canada Brazil China + H. Kong Mexico (up to Jun) Belarus Canada Brazil China + H. Kong Mexico (up to Jun) Belarus (up to July) 2015 (up to July) 0

21 EU exports of selected PIG products: Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes product weight) Jan-Jul 15 Compared to tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % Jan-Jul 14 China ,6% ,1% ,5% ,2% ,9% + 43% Japan ,4% ,5% ,5% ,4% ,6% - 20% South Korea ,2% ,5% ,3% ,3% ,3% + 31% Hong Kong ,2% ,4% ,5% ,8% ,1% - 38% Philippines ,1% ,4% ,3% ,7% ,9% - 9% USA ,9% ,0% ,9% ,9% ,0% + 2% Ukraine ,6% ,3% ,9% ,6% ,8% + 2% Australia ,4% ,5% ,4% ,1% ,5% + 30% Angola ,0% ,9% ,0% ,3% ,9% - 15% Taiw an ,7% ,5% ,4% ,7% ,7% + 13% Ivory Coast ,7% ,9% ,1% ,4% ,7% + 23% Russia ,0% ,2% ,0% ,2% ,5% - 86% Other ,3% ,5% ,7% ,4% ,1% Extra EU % change - 2% + 1% - 5% + 4,9%

22 EU exports of selected PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes product weight) EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Tonnes prod. weight) Jan-Jul 13 Jan-Jul 14 Jan-Jul 15 Tons (pw) EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (1000 EUR) in 1,000 EUR Jan-Jul 13 Jan-Jul 14 Jan-Jul 15 China Japan South Korea Hong Kong Philippines Other destinations China Japan South Korea Hong Kong Philippines Other destinations

23 Exports of selected PIG products in Tonnes (product weight) Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 15 FRESH FROZEN FAT LIVE ANIMALS OTHERS

24 Qué ha hecho la Comision? (2014) Embargo PPA (aparicion de focos en las Republicas Balticas y Polonia): ayuda financiera mejora bio-seguridad de las explotaciones y compensaciones en Polonia y Lituania. Caso ante la OMC; seguimiento minucioso de la situación del mercado DG AGRI C3 22 October 2015

25 y en 2015 Apertura de un programa de almacenamiento privado, en Marzo ( t) En Octubre, aprobación de un paquete de 500 millones de Euros, canalizado fundamentalmente a través de dotaciones nacionales (25 para Espana), con el sector porcino como posible beneficiario. Apertura segundo programa de almacenamiento privado para el final de 2015 DG AGRI C3 22 October 2015

26 STOCKAGE PRIVE CE PIG MEAT SECTOR Regulations: 826/2008, 68/2011 Brussels 01-Oct-15 BY PRODUCT DESTOCKAGE REEL T O N N E S APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT TOTAL CODE NC PRODUCT ex HALF- C AR C AS S E S ex HAMS ex SHOULDERS ex F O R E E NDS ex L O INS ex (1) L E G S BO NE D ex BELLIES ex (2) BE L L IE S BO NE D ex (3) MIDDL E S BO NE D T O T A L

27 A modo de conclusión Dentro de la agricultura europea, el sector porcino es un ejemplo de eficacia, adaptabilidad y orientacion a las oportunidades del mercado. A pesar de una reglamentacion liviana a nivel comunitario, existen instrumentos jurídicos y medios financieros para apoyar al sector en momentos concretos. Es en el propio interés del sector que dichos apoyos sean puntuales, y no recurrentes. DG AGRI C3 22 October 2015