CLIMATE MONITORING AND EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS

Tamaño: px

Comenzar la demostración a partir de la página:

Download "CLIMATE MONITORING AND EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS"

María Antonia Alvarado Gallego
hace 8 años
Vistas:

1 UNFCC technical workshop under the Nairobi work programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation on climate change CLIMATE MONITORING AND EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS INSTITUTO DE METEOROLOGIA MARCH 10, 2009 CUBA

00 25.50 25.00 24.50 CLIMATE MONITORING 24.

2 Climate, as a natural resource, could be used to a sustainable development of our societies.

3 Society must be very carefully in relation with the extreme climate events. They are the most dramatic way through climate variability and climate change can affect society.

4 Adaptation to climate variability and change is also an important frame to the National Weather Services. They can contribute in climate risk assessment and helping in disaster reduction.

5 MAIN EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS OCURRED IN CUBA DURING THE LAST THREE DECADES : Increase of the hurricane activity since 1995 (including: six major hurricanes since 2001; the very active hurricane season of 2008). Heavy rains and floods. Increased frequency of drought (including the severe and extended drought of ).

since 2001; the very active hurricane season of 2008). Heavy rains and floods.

6 THE CUBAN EXPERIENCE : (Increase of the hurricane activity and Heavy rains and flood) The hazard assessment of hurricane impact on Cuba, including a review of historical information during the last two centuries, as a contribution to the climate risk assessment. A A professional and a well organized National Meteorological Service, including the increased capacity of the national weather watch system.

two centuries, as a contribution to the climate risk assessment.

7 THE CUBAN EXPERIENCE : (Increase of the hurricane activity and Heavy rains and flood) Public education and awareness. The Early Warning. A very accessible information system. A well established and structured response system: a very good relation work between the Institute of Meteorology and the Civil Defense.

8 THE CUBAN EXPERIENCE : (Increased frequency of drought. ) The systematic assessment about the state of the climate, its variations and trends. The Climate Monitoring System, including the monitoring of meteorological and agriculture drought. Capacity building. Collaboration.

9 On 1997 the Institute of Meteorology issued an statement about the Cuban climate observed variations: the assessment of the climate observed variations let us to say that the Cuban climate is going to the new state, with similar characteristics to those projected for a climate change.. Increase of air surface temperature. Reduction of the diurnal oscillation of temperature. Increased frequency of lasting and severe drought, mainly during summer.

with similar characteristics to those projected for a climate change.. Increase of air surface temperature.

10 THE CLIMATE MONITORING SYSTEM. National Observation System Global Observation System Global and Regional Analysis and Prediction Centers Climate Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Center CENCLIM Drought Monitoring Group Climate Application Group Agriculture Meteorology Center

Regional Analysis and Prediction Centers Climate Monitoring and

11 THE CLIMATE MONITORING SYSTEM. Assess the climate behavior. Make the Climate Early Warnings. Develop agricultural and human health assessments.

12 CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT MONITORING AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM. DIAGNOSTIC FORECAST INFORMATION SYSTEM DROUGHT MONITORING OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION MONITORING NATIONAL FORECAST MODELS INTERNATIONAL FORECAST MODELS INFORMATION SYSTEM Climate Monitoring Bulletin Meteorological Drought System Agriculture Drought System Atmospheric Circulation Monitoring Forcing Process Monitoring CENCLIM IRI CPC ECMWF OTROS Agro climate Monitoring Bulletin Special Warning Climate Projections Another Process Monitoring

MODELS INTERNATIONAL FORECAST MODELS INFORMATION SYSTEM Climate Monitoring Bulletin Meteorological Drought System Agriculture

13 NOVEMBER JANUARY 2008 RAINFALL BEHAVIOR

14 INFORMATION SYSTEM CLIMATE MONITORING BULLETIN SPECIAL CLIMATE ADVISORY SPECIAL CLIMATE SUMMARY WEB SITE INFORMATION (

15 Oscar Solano System for the surveillance and the early warning of the drought in the Agricultural Meteorological Center SISTEMA NACIONAL para LA VIGILANCIA, EL PRONOSTICO The y EL system AVISO is conformed TEMPRANO by four de components, LA SEQUIA the AGRÍCOLA diagnose, the forecast, the early warning and the informative system AVISO EARLY TEMPRANO WARNING DIAGNOSTICO PRONOSTICO FORECAST INFORMATIVE SISTEMA INFORMATIVO SYSTEM Monitoring VIGILANCIA of the agricultural DE LA SEQUIA drought AGRÍCOLA VIGILANCIA Monitoring DEL PELIGRO of the danger DE INCENDIOS of vegetation EN LA fires VEGETACIÓN USO DE Use PRONOSTICOS of agromet. forecast AGROMETEOR. and studies Y ESTUDIOS of DE threats AMENAZAS Use USO of national DE PRONOSTICOS forecast NACIONALES PRODUCTOS Informative INFORMATIVO products S A system Uso de of un agricultural Sistema de drought are used Sequía Agrícola A Uso system de un of Sistema danger of fires de peligro in the de vegetation incendios are en used la vegetación Agricultural Centro de Meteorología Meteorological Center Agrícola Centro Climatede Center Clima Boletín Agrometeorológico National agrometeorological Nacional bulletin Boletín Provincial Agrometeorológico agrometeorological Provincialbulletin Warnings Avisos and y Sumarios special summaries Especiales Datos Climatic climáticos data Datos Soil suelo data Vegetation Datos data vegetación Agrometeorological Ponósticos Agoclimáticos forecast Internet Internet

INFORMATIVE SISTEMA INFORMATIVO SYSTEM Monitoring VIGILANCIA of the agricultural DE LA SEQUIA drought AGRÍCOLA VIGILANCIA Monitoring DEL PELIGRO of the danger DE INCENDIOS of vegetation EN LA fires

16 Today we can diagnose DIAGNOSE. Status of the agricultural drought. Intensity of the agricultural drought. Spatial extension of the agricultural drought. Duration of the agricultural drought. Potentially dangerous rural fires

17 Oscar Solano We have seasonal forecast Ejemplo Example de of predicción seasonal agricultural a largo plazo drought (estacional) forecast in Cuba de la sequía agrícola en Cuba FORECAST Agricultural drought Condiciones de sequía agrícola formadas conditions el 31 in de octubre de 2002, Oct. días 31, antes 2002 de la fecha de confección del pronóstico estacional Beginning de la of sequía, dry period al inicio del período estacional poco lluvioso. Forecast of agricultural drought conditions to Predicción de la sequía agrícola efectuada Apr. 30, el de noviembre de 2002 End para of dry el 30 period de abril de 2003, final del período estacional poco lluvioso. Real agricultural drought conditions, six months later of forecast date: Condiciones reales de sequía agrícola evaluadas el 30 de abril Apr. 30, 2003 de (Seis meses después) Accuracy Acierto del of pronóstico: the forecast: 63% 63% Evaluates Evaluados cuadrículas. pixels

días 31, antes 2002 de la fecha de confección del pronóstico estacional Beginning de la of sequía, dry period al inicio del período estacional poco lluvioso.

18 Issuing early warnings. WARNING OF AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT WARN EARLY Anexo III ISSN BOLETÍN AGROMETEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL MINISTERIO DE CIENCIA, TECNOLOGÍA Y MEDIO AMBIENTE INSTITUTO DE METEOROLOGÍA Vol. 23 No.10 1RA DÉCADA ABRIL 2000 CONTENIDO: Condiciones Meteorológicas Condiciones Agrometeorológicas Apicultura Avicultura Arroz Café y Cacao Caña de Azúcar Cítricos y Frutales Cultivos Varios Ganadería Tabaco Perspectivas Meteorológicas Fases de la Luna DISCRETO AUMENTO DE LAS LLUVIAS Y LAS TEMPERATURAS. SE PREVÉ UN INCREMENTO DE LAS PROBABILIDADES DE OCURRENCIA DE LLUVIA PARA EL FINAL DEL PERÍODO. ACTUALIZACIÓN DEL PRONÓSTICO AGROMETEOROLÓGICO A LARGO PLAZO.

10 1RA DÉCADA ABRIL 2000 CONTENIDO: Condiciones Meteorológicas Condiciones Agrometeorológicas Apicultura Avicultura Arroz Café y Cacao Caña de Azúcar Cítricos y

19 We have an informative system Diversity of Informative A través de productos products informativos, por ejemplo. Boletín Web page Boletines Agrometeorológico Nacional Agrometeorológicos bulletins Agrometeorological bulletins Abril April Boletín Agrometeorológico Provincial Agroclimatic summary. Avisos y Sumarios Especiales Seasonal forecast. Pronósticos Agroclimáticos Special warnings Agrometeorological. Internet Internet INFORMATIVE SYSTEM II II Agosto August 1978 III August Agosto 2000 Mayo I April Abril Anexo III ISSN BOLETÍN AGROMETEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL MINISTERIO DE CIENCIA, TECNOLOGÍA Y MEDIO AMBIENTE INSTITUTO DE METEOROLOGÍA Vol. 23 No.10 1RA 2000 DÉCADA ABRIL CONTENIDO: Condiciones Meteorológicas Condiciones Agrometeorológicas Apicultura Avicultura Arroz Café y Cacao Caña de Azúcar Cítricos y Frutales Cultivos Varios Ganadería Tabaco Perspectivas Meteorológicas Fases de la Luna DISCRETO AUMENTO DE LAS LLUVIAS Y LAS TEMPERATURAS. SE PREVÉ UN INCREMENTO DE LAS PROBABILIDADES DE OCURRENCIA DE LLUVIA PARA EL FINAL DEL PERÍODO. ACTUALIZACIÓN DEL PRONÓSTICO AGROMETEOROLÓGICO A LARGO PLAZO.

Avisos y Sumarios Especiales Seasonal forecast. Pronósticos Agroclimáticos Special warnings Agrometeorological.

20 Oscar Solano Our web page: 2nd ten days, jun, 2008 DIAGNOSE National Agrometeorological Bulletin

21 Capacity building. Professional formation; Scientific results of Cuban researcher; Integration of several institutions and disciplines to obtain a well defined objectives; Simulación del clima en el 2070 Hecho en Cuba, 2006

22 COLLABORATION. Cuba collaborates with others countries in assessment of climate behavior, impact and adaptation, and would like to continue this collaboration in the future.

23 CONCLUTIONS The climate variability and change impact on society and environment could be extraordinary. Integration of climate information into national programs could help to a better adaptation of humanity to our future climate.

Documentos relacionados

Vulnerability and Adaptation in Cuba The Drought Case

Vulnerability and Adaptation in Cuba The Drought Case Latin American Regional Workshop on Adaptation 1 ST BRITISH-CUBAN WORKSHOP ON CLIMATE CHANGE: A regional challenge with a global impact Havana, Cuba, November 28 th - 30 th, 2005. Lima, Peru 18-20 Abril