Patters of evolution of the Mexican clearing house system ( ) Demography or Levels of Economic Activity? Gustavo A.

Transcripción

1 Patters of evolution of the Mexican clearing house system ( ) Demography or Levels of Economic Activity? Gustavo A. Del Angel

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3 Some facts for the period : Between the 1940s and the late 1970s bank branch expansion followed the demographic trend of the country (in search for savings) Opening of regional banks as well as credit were concentrated in areas of relevant economic activiy However it is unclear how transactions and volume of bank activiy was dispersed in the country 3

4 Central question: What was the relationship between regional patterns of activity of clearing houses (volume of transactions and its value) and demographic patterns? and regional economic activity (GDP per cápita)? What is the driving force behind financial activity? How differentiated is the activity among regions? How can we characterize levels of financial activity? 4

5 Relevance: Need to have a [historical] indicator of financial activity at regional level Prove an academic use of historical information originally produced by the central bank and stored in its historical archives 5

6 The banking law of 1932 decreed that the central bank develop a system of clearing houses Previous to those years, clearinghouse services were carried out, mainly, by private institutions (Banamex during Porfiriato for banknotes) 6

7 Confiada al Banco de México, por la Ley de 12 de abril del corriente año, la organización del servicio de compensación, y establecido el sistema de asociación de todos los bancos comerciales al de México, la nueva Ley de Instituciones de Crédito se limita sobre el particular a definir el carácter jurídico de la compensación bancaria y a dar las bases para el servicio de compensación que organizara el Banco de México. El funcionamiento de este servicio y el de las cámaras de compensación local en toda la República, será un elemento de movilización y de economía en el manejo monetario, cuya eficacia ha pasado ya de la etapa de experimentación. Exposición de Motivos, Ley General de Instituciones de Crédito, Artículo La compensación se llamara "local", si se efectúa entre las instituciones que operan en la plaza donde tenga establecida oficina d Banco de México; se llamarán compensación "por zona", si se efectúa entre instituciones que operen en diversas plazas comprendidas dentro de las zona señalada al efecto pare la oficina respectiva del Banco de México; se llamara "nacional", si la compensación se efectúa por instituciones que operen en plazas de diversas zonas de la República. Para todos los efectos de la compensación, las sucursales se entenderán como instituciones autónomas. Articulo En las plazas donde no exista oficina respectiva del Banco de México, las instituciones que en ellas operen podrán organización Cámara Local de Compensación como sociedad de capital variable conforme al articulo 80., con la aprobación de la Comisión Nacional Bancaria. Ley General de Instituciones de Crédito,

8 There were different layers for the activity of the clearinghouse system: National Regional Local In addition there were banks that worked as corresponsal to Banco de México for this purpose Automation began in the 1970s. Thus organizing CECOBAN in 1979 under the leadership of the central bank. Privatization of CECOBAN in 1990s. 8

9 GDP per capita (1970=100) and documents processed per capita PIB per cápita Documentos per Cápita (población) 9

10 GDP per capita (1970=100) and average value (1970=100) of procesed documents PIB per cápita Valor Promedio (miles de pesos) 10

11 GDP per capita (1970=100) and documents processed per capita Valor Promedio (miles de pesos) Documentos per Cápita (población) 11

12 Average value of documents processed in the clearing house system. Pesos 1970=100 Cartography of Density

13 Average value of documents processed in the clearing house system. Pesos 1970=100 Cartography of Density

14 Average value of documents processed in the clearing house system. Pesos 1970=100 Cartography of Density

15 Average value of documents processed in the clearing house system. Pesos 1970=100 Cartography of Density

16 Average value of documents processed in the clearing house system. Pesos 1970=100 Cartography of Density

17 Analysis of data (quasi panel - unbalanced): Volume of transactions Value of transactions Average value of transactions by Year Clearinghouse (10 main regions out of 15) An estimate of the Population covered by the regional clearinghouse ( ) An estimate of the GDP of the region covered by the clearinghouse ( ) 17

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20 Volume Dependent Variable: D(LOGVOL) Coefficient Std. Error Prob. D(LOG POBLACION) *** D(LOG PIB PER CAPITA) *** Value Dependent Variable: D(LOGVAL) Coefficient Std. Error Prob. D(LOG POBLACION) *** Not significant in other functional forms D(LOG PIB PER CAPITA) *** Average Value of transactions Dependent Variable: D(LOGVALORAVG) Coefficient Std. Error Prob. D(LOG POBLACION) D(LOG PIB PER CAPITA) ***

21 Preliminary and very basic results: Population in a region, as expected, is significantly related to volume of transactions trivial Population in a region is significantly related to (total) value of transactions Population in a region does not help to explain the average value of documents GDP per capita in a region is significantly related to volume, total value, and average value of transactions 21

22 Thank you 22