New extensions. Matilde Mas Ezequiel Uriel Universitat de València e Ivie. Ivie. Vicent Cucarella Juan Fernández de Guevara
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1 Capital stock estimation in Spain. New extensions. Matilde Mas Ezequiel Uriel Universitat de València e Ivie Vicent Cucarella Juan Fernández de Guevara Ivie
2 Research Objectives: Elaboration of Gross Fixed Capital Formation series in current and constant prices from 1954 (base year 1995) New ESA methodology Calculation of GFCF series by types of assets Special attention: GFCF in software, hardware and communication equipment Elaboration of Fixed Capital Stock series 1990, base year 1995 Gross stock Productive stock Net stock (wealth)
3 New concepts in the ESA-95 on Capital Gross Formation Included in INE s CNE-95 series - computer software and large databases, - mining explorations, - entertainment, literary or artistic originals, - purchase of military equipment as long as it is similar to those used by civilians, - valuing of production for final own use. Not included yet: - treatment of valuable objects in a specific GFCF heading
4 Classification of the gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) by types of assets Dwellings Other buildings/structures Transportation equipment Motor vehicles Other transportation materials Machinery and other products Agriculture, livestock and fishing products Metallic and machinery products Metallic products Machinery and mechanical equipment Office and computer equipment Other machinery and equipment Communications Other machinery and equipment not classified elsewhere. Other products Software Other products not classified elsewhere
5 TABLE 1. Statistical Sources for the linked GFCF series in current prices and its disaggregation by asset types Period Contabilidad Nacional de España. Base 1995 (INE) Tabla Origen-Destino 1995,1996 (INE) Contabilidad Nacional de España trimestral. Base 1995 (INE) Contabilidad Nacional de España. Base 1986 (INE) Period Contabilidad Nacional de España. Base 1985 (INE) Contabilidad Nacional de España. Base 1980 (INE) Contabilidad Nacional de España. Serie enlazada. Base 1986 (INE) Contabilidad Nacional de España. Serie enlazada. Base 1986 (FBBV-Ivie) Tablas Input-Output 1980, (INE) Contabilidad Nacional de España. Serie enlazada. Base 1986 (INE) Contabilidad Nacional de España. Base 1970 (INE) Period Contabilidad Nacional de España. Serie enlazada. Base 1986 (FBBV-Ivie) Tabla Input-Output 1975 (FIES) Tabla Input-Output 1970 (Ministerio de Planificación y Desarrollo) Tabla Input-Output 1966 (Organización Sindical Española) Contabilidad Nacional de España. Base 1958 (IEF) Period Contabilidad Nacional de España. Serie enlazada. Base 1986 (FBBV-Ivie) Tabla Input-Output 1962 (Organización Sindical Española) Tabla Input-Output 1958 (Organización Sindical Española) Special cases Software and Communication Equipment
6 Graph I.1. GFCF Composition. Current prices. MAIN AGGREGATES % 80% Machinery and other products 60% Transport equipment 40% Others constructions 20% Dwellings 0% (A) Dwellings Transport equipment Others constructions Machinery and other products
7 Graph I.2. GFCF Composition. Current prices. TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT % 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Motor vehicles Other transport equipment
8 Graph I.3. GFCF Composition. Current prices. MACHINERY AND OTHER PRODUCTS % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (A) Agriculture, livestock and fishi Machinery and metal products Other products
9 Graph I.4. GFCF Composition. Current prices. MACHINERY AND METAL PRODUCTS % 30% 25% 20% 15% Other machinery and equipment Office, computing and accounting 10% 5% Machinery and mechanical equipme Metal products 0% Metal products Office, computing and accounting Machinery and mechanical equipme Other machinery and equipment
10 TABLE 2. Statistical Sources for the linked GFCF series in constant prices and its disaggregation by asset types Period Contabilidad Nacional de España. Base 1995 (INE) Contabilidad Nacional de España trimestral. Base 1995 (INE) Contabilidad Nacional de España. Base 1986 (INE) Period Contabilidad Nacional de España. Base 1985 (INE) Contabilidad Nacional de España. Base 1980 (INE) Contabilidad Nacional de España. Serie enlazada. Base 1986 (INE) Contabilidad Nacional de España. Serie enlazada. Base 1986 (FBBV-Ivie) Contabilidad Nacional de España. Serie enlazada. Base 1986 (INE) Period Contabilidad Nacional de España. Base 1970 (INE) Contabilidad Nacional de España. Serie enlazada. Base 1986 (FBBV-Ivie) Period Contabilidad Nacional de España. Base 1958 (IEF) Contabilidad Nacional de España. Serie enlazada. Base 1986 (FBBV-Ivie) Special cases Software, Hardware and Communication Equipment
11 2.000 Graph I.5. GFCF Evolution. Constant prices. MAIN AGGREGATES = (A) GFCF Dwellings Others constructions Transport equipment Machinery and other products
12 2.500 Graph I.6. GFCF Evolution. Constant prices. TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT = (A) GFCF Motor vehicles Other transport equipment
13 6.000 Graph I.7 GFCF Evolution. Constant prices. MACHINERY AND OTHER PRODUCTS = (A) GFCF Agriculture, livestock and fishi Machinery and metal products Other products
14 Graph I.8. GFCF Evolution. Constant prices. MACHINERY AND METAL PRODUCTS = (A) GFCF Office, computing and accounting Metal products Other machinery and equipment Machinery and mechanical equipme
15 Graph I.9. GFCF Evolution. Constant prices. Software and office, computing and accountig machinery = (A) GFCF Software Office, computing and accounting
16 Software (Concepts included in the GFCF of software are in cursive) Computer services Consulting Development and supply of complete packages Development and supply of customized software Installation and integration of systems Software maintenance Integrated customized projects Data processing. Data Center (Information Technology) Databases Outsourcing Hardware Maintenance Value Added Services Training Other computer services (part) Other computer activities Computer equipment manufacturing Computer equipment distribution Supply of auxiliary material Other computer activities not considered previously (part) 1 Other activities and services 1 The sections that correspond to computer programs are also included.
17 Price indexes for hardware and software. SOFTWARE Gross Domestic Product Implicit Price Index of Software Services Alternatives: 1. P SW Spain = P GDP Spain P GDP USA P SW USA 2. P SW Spain = P GFCF Spain P GFCF USA P SW USA
18 Graph I.10. Price indexes for software (1995=100) Based on US estimates and GFCF price index Software services US Price index price index (CNE) CFCF: Gross fixed capital formation
19 Hardware. Price indexes for hardware Gross Domestic Product Implicit Price Index of Office machinery and computers Alternatives: PGDP Spain P 1. HW Spain = PHW USA PGDP USA PGFCF Spain 2. PHW Spain = PHW USA PGFCF USA!3. Industrial Production Price Index (INE) Alternatives: P P HW Spain = HW Spain = P GDP Spain P P GDP USA GFCF USA P GFCF Spain P HW USA P HW USA!3. Estimation based on the Industrial Production Price Index (INE) and the rate of growth of (1) or (2) above.
20 140 Graph I.11. Price indexes for hardware (1995=100) Based on US estimates and GFCF price index Industrial price index* US price index Hardware (CNE) * Industrial price index Own estimation based on Us data CFCF: Gross fixed capital formation
21 Software and hardware capital stock estimatimation in Spain. Step by step
22 TWO ASSETS: Software (Average services life: 3 years) Hardware (Average services life: 7 years)
23 STEP 1. GROSS CAPITAL STOCK OF ASSET i INit, Current Prices (Nominal) GFCF on asset i at time t P Price of asset i at time t (with reference to a base year, 1995) it, IR GFCF at constant prices of asset i at time t it, IR it, = IN P it, it, wit, Retirement (survival) function of asset i at time t
24 Function chosen: Winfrey S-3 (Truncated at 5 ) Maximum life: Software: 5 years Hardware: 11 years
25 KGit, Gross Capital Stock of asset i at time t, at constant prices (1995) KG c it, Gross Capital Stock of asset i at time t, at current prices T it, = it, j i, j j= 0 KG IR w T = Maximum services life c it, = it, it, KG KG P
26 STEP TWO: PRODUCTIVE CAPITAL STOCK f Age Efficiency function it, Hyperbolic function: fit, = ( T j)/( T β j) β Slope of the Age-Efficiency function For both Software and Hardware β has been fixed = 0.5
27 KPit, Productive Capital Stock of Asset i at time t at constant prices c it, KP Productive Capital Stock of Asset i at time t at current prices T it, = it, j i, j i, j j= 0 KP IR w f c it, = it, it, KP KP P
28 STEP 3. NET (WEALTH) CAPITAL V it, Age-Price Function of Asset i at time t V T i, j i, j= j+ 1 j= f 0 (1 + r) r has been fixed = 4%
29 vi, j Normalized Age-Price Function of Asset i v i, j = V V i, j i,0 KWit, Net (Wealth) Capital Stock of Asset i at time t at constant prices T it, = it, j i, j i, j j= 0 KW IR w v c it, KW Net (Wealth) Capital Stock of Asset i at time t at current prices c it, = it, it, KW KW P
30 Preliminary results for software and hardware
31 Graph II.1. Capital Stock at constant prices (base year 1995). SOFTWARE Levels Gross Capital Productive Capital Net (Wealth) Capital
32 20% Graph II.2. Capital Stock at constant prices. SOFTWARE Annual Rates of Growth % 10% 5% 0% Gross Capital Productive Capital Net (Wealth) Capital
33 Graph II.3. Capital Stock at constant prices (base year 1995). HARDWARE Levels Gross Capital Productive Capital Net (Wealth) Capital
34 30% Graph II.4. Capital Stock at constant prices. HARDWARE Annual Rates of Growth % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Gross Capital Productive Capital Net (Wealth) Capital
35 Graph II.5. Productive Capital Stock at constant prices (base year 1995) Levels Software Hardware
36 30% Graph II.6. Productive Capital Stock at constant prices. Annual Rates of Growth % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Software Hardware
37 Graph II.7. Productive Capital Stock at constant prices (base year 1995) Index 1985 = Software Hardware
38 Capital stock estimation in Spain. New extensions. Matilde Mas Ezequiel Uriel Universitat de València e Ivie Vicent Cucarella Juan Fernández de Guevara Ivie
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