LATIN AMERICA OVERVIEW

Transcripción

1 LATIN AMERICA OVERVIEW MACRO-ECONOMIC RISK AND INTEREST RATE DATA Macro-economic data as of December 2 Standard & Poor s rating as of: December 21 Interest rate as of: December 2 Bolivar # 472 Of. 72 Miraflores Lima 18 - Peru Tel. (511) Fax. (511)

2 INDEX Latin America macro-economic figures Macro-economic comparison: GDP 2 3 Macro-economic comparison: GDP per capita 2 4 Latin American macro-economic data 2 5 Macro-economic data Gross Domestic Product 9 GDP per capita 1 Trade Balance 11 Trade Balance (% of GDP) 12 Balance of payments 13 Balance of payments (% of reserves) 14 Reserves 15 Reserves (% of GDP) 16 Inflation 17 Devaluation 18 Inflation vs. Devaluation 19 Key figures by country Argentina 2 Bolivia 21 Brazil 22 Chile 23 Colombia 24 Costa Rica 25 Dominican Republic 26 Ecuador 27 El Salvador 28 Guatemala 29 Honduras 3 Mexico 31 Nicaragua 32 Panama 32 Paraguay 34 Peru 35 Uruguay 36 Venezuela 37

3 MACRO-ECONOMIC COMPARISON GDP 2 () Latin America vs. OECD countries Latin America France United Kingdom Germany Japan United States Big Latin American countries vs peer group Medium Latin American countries vs peer group Mexico Brazil Russia Australia Korea India Spain Canada Peru Chile Colombia Nigeria Hungary New Zealand Philippines Malaysia Small Latin American countries vs peer group Very small Latin American countries vs peer group Guatemala Dom. Rep. Uruguay Luxembourg Vietnam Morocco Romania Honduras Paraguay Bolivia Madagascar Iceland Cameroon Bulgaria Source: International Financial Status, International Monetary Fund, December 21 3

4 MACRO-ECONOMIC COMPARISON GDP PER CAPITA 2 ($) Large Latin American countries vs peer group Medium Latin American countries vs peer group Mexico Uruguay Argentina Libya Saudi Arabia Greece Taiwan Brazil Panama Chile South Africa Malaysia Hungary Portugal Small Latin American countries vs peer group Very small Latin American countries vs peer group Paraguay Colombia Peru Morocco Iran Egypt Turkey Honduras Ecuador Bolivia India Philippines Egypt Romania Source: International Financial Status, International Monetary Fund, December 21 4

5 LATIN AMERICAN MACRO-ECONOMIC DATA 2 Country GDP () GDP growth (%) GDP per capita ($) Balance of Payments (M $) Trade Balance (M $) Reserves (MM USD) Inflation Devaluation Mercosur 976 Argentina % 7,778-1,176 2, % % Brazil % 3,362 7, % 9% Chile 7 5.4% 4, , % 8% Paraguay 8 -.4% 1, % 6% Uruguay 2-1.3% 6, % 8% Andean region 277 Bolivia 9 2.4% 1, % 7% Colombia % 1, , % 17% Ecuador % 1,48 n.r. n.a..9 96% 23% Peru % 1, % % Venezuela % 5,38 5,89 17, % 8% Mexico % 5,693 7,15-8, % -1% Mexico, Central America and the Carribean 86 Costa Rica % 4,257 n.r. n.r % 7% Dom. Rep % 2, , % 2% El Salvador 13 3.% 2, , % -5% Guatemala % 1, , % 5% Honduras 6 6.2% % 4% Nicaragua 2 5.9% % 6% Panama 1 4.5% 3, , % % Source: International Financial Status, International Monetary Fund, December 21 5

6 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 2 () GROUPS BY SIZE: 1) GDP > 2, 2) 5 < GDP < 2, 3) 1 < GDP < 5, 4) GDP < Brazil Mexico ) GDP > 2 Argentina Venezuela Colombia Chile Peru Uruguay Dom. Rep Guatemala Costa Rica Ecuador El Salvador Brazil Panama Mexico Argentina Bolivia Paraguay Honduras Nicaragua ) 5 < GDP < 2 Venezuela Colombia Chile Peru ) 1 < GDP < ) GDP < Uruguay Dom. Rep. Guatemala Costa Rica Ecuador El Salvador Panama Bolivia Paraguay Honduras Nicaragua Source: International Financial Status, International Monetary Fund, October 21 9

7 GDP PER CAPITA 2 ($) GROUPS BY SIZE: 1) GDP per capita > 4, 2) 18 < GDP per capita < 4, 3) GDP per capita< 18 Country GPD per capita ($) Argentina 8,365 7,827 7,778 Uruguay 6,844 1) GDP per capita 6,36 > 4 6,59 Mexico 4,237 4,718 5,693 Venezuela 1, 4,132 4,44 5,38 Chile 5,59 4,623 4,728 Costa Rica 3,986 4,365 4,257 8, Panama 3,254 3,336 3,396 Brazil 4,623 3,42 3,362 Dom. Rep. 6, 1,976 2,11 2,321 El Salvador $ 1,927 1,939 2,12 Peru 4, 2,173 1,93 1,954 Colombia 2,583 2,41 1,92 Guatemala 2, 1,696 1,557 1,54 Paraguay 1,63 1,414 1,343 Bolivia 1,156 1,11 1,83 Ecuador 1,581 1,68 1,48 Honduras Nicaragua Argentina Uruguay Mexico Venezuela Chile Costa Rica 2) 18 < GDP per capita < 4 5, 4, 3, $ 2, 1, Panama Brazil Dom. Rep. El Salvador Peru Colombia ) GDP per capita < 18 2, 1,5 $ 1, 5 Guatemala Paraguay Bolivia Ecuador Honduras Nicaragua Source: International Financial Status,, International Monetary Fund, October 21 1

8 TRADE BALANCE 2 ( M $) GROUPS BY SIZE: 1) TB >, 2) -1 < TB <, 3) TB < Costa Rica n.a. Ecuador ,665 n.a. 1) Trade Balance > Venezuela 2,471 7,66 17,965 Argentina -3, ,558 Colombia -2,45 1,775 2,543 2, Chile -2,516 1,664 1,438 Peru -2, , Bolivia Paraguay 12, Honduras M $ Brazil 8, -6,63-1, Uruguay Nicaragua 4, , Panama -1,362-1,415-1,291 Guatemala -1,49-1,445-1,426 Venezuela Argentina Colombia El Salvador -1,36-1,345-1,719 Chile Dom. Rep. -2,617-2,94-3,742 Mexico -7,915-5,581-8,3 2) -1 < Trade Balance < Peru Bolivia Paraguay Honduras Brazil Uruguay Nicaragua -2-4 M $ , -1,2 3) Trade Balance < -1 Panama Guatemala El Salvador Dom. Rep. Mexico -2, -4, M $ -6, -8, -1, Source: International Financial Status, International Monetary Fund, October 21 11

9 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2 (M $) GROUPS BY SIZE: 1) BP >, 2) BP < Balance of Payments (M $) Country 1) Balance of payments > Costa Rica n.a. Ecuador n.a. Brazil Mexico Venezuela Colombia Guatemala Uruguay M $ Chile Bolivia Dom. Rep El Salvador Peru Panama Honduras Brazil Mexico Venezuela Colombia Guatemala Uruguay Chile Paraguay Nicaragua Argentina ) Balance of payments < Bolivia Dom. Rep. El Salvador Peru Panama Honduras Paraguay Nicaragua Argentina M $ Source: International Financial Status, International Moneterary Fund 13

10 RESERVES Mexico Brazil Argentina Chile 16 1) Reserves 14 > 1 15 Venezuela Colombia Peru Uruguay El Salvador Guatemala Costa Rica Honduras Ecuador Bolivia Paraguay Mexico Brazil Argentina Chile Venezuela Panama Dom. Rep Nicaragua 1 2) 1 < Reserves < Colombia Peru Uruguay El Salvador Guatemala Costa Rica Honduras ) Reserves < Ecuador Bolivia Paraguay Panama Dom. Rep. Nicaragua Source: International Financial Status, International Monetary Fund, October 21 Source: International Financial Status, International Monetary Fund, October 21 15

11 INFLATION vs DEVALUATION 2 1% 5% % -5% -1% 2% Inflation vs. Devaluation Inflacion Devaluacion Argentina -.9%.% Panama 1.4%.% El Salvador 2.5% -5.1% Chile 3.8% 8.% Peru 3.8%.5% Bolivia 4.6% 6.7% Argentina Panama Uruguay El Salvador Chile 4.8% Peru 7.7% Bolivia Guatemala 6.% 5.1% Brazil 7.% 9.3% Dom. Rep. 7.7% 2.4% Paraguay 9.% 5.9% Colombia 9.2% Inflation Devaluation 16.7% Mexico 9.5% -1.1% Nicaragua 9.7% 6.% Honduras 1.5% 4.4% Costa Rica Inflation vs. 11.5% Devaluation 6.7% Venezuela 16.2% 7.9% Ecuador 96.2% 23.5% 15% 1% 5% % Uruguay Guatemala Brazil Dom. Rep. Paraguay Colombia Inflation Devaluation Inflation vs Devaluation 1% 75% 5% 25% % Mexico Nicaragua Honduras Costa Rica Venezuela Ecuador -25% Inflation Devaluation Source: International Financial Status, International Monetary Fund, October 21 19

12 ARGENTINA S&P RATING LOCAL CURRENCY FOREING CURRENCY Long Term Outlook Short Term Long Term Outlook Short Term SD C SD C MACROECONOMIC DATA Population (M) Gross domestic product () GDP (annual % growth) 5.5% 8.1% 3.8% -3.4% -.5% GDP per capita ($) 7,756 8,242 8,365 7,827 7,778 Balance of payments (M $) 3,258 3,331 4,9 2,13-1,176 Balance of payments (% of GDP) 1.2% 1.1% 1.4%.7% -.4% Balance of payments (% of reserves) 18.% 14.9% 16.5% 7.7% -4.7% Reserves () Trade balance (M $) 1,76-2,123-3, ,558 Exports (M $) 24,43 26,431 26,433 23,39 26,49 Imports (M $) -22,283-28,554-29,532-24,13-23,851 Inflation (annual % change).2%.5%.9% -1.2% -.9% Official rate Devaluation (annual % change) % % % % % INTEREST RATES LOCAL CURRENCY Deposit rate Lending rate Spread FOREIGN CURRENCY Deposit rate Lending rate Spread Source: International Financial Status, International Monetary Fund, October 21 2