Mercado Asegurador Boliviano: Algunos Aspectos Crediticios Relevantes Moody s Global Insurance
Agenda 1. Ambiente Operativo 2. Posición de Mercado y Marca 3. Programa y Políticas de Reaseguro 4. Rentabilidad 5. Reservas de Siniestros Pendientes 6. Perspectivas 2
1 Ambiente Operativo 3
Riesgo Soberano El Perfil de Riesgo Soberano de Bolivia Ha Mejorado Sostenidamente 4
Bolivia en la Región Mejora en los Perfiles Crediticios Soberanos Calificaciones Soberanas de Moody s 2009 2014 2015 Caa3 Caa1 B3 Caa1 Caa1 B3 B3 B2 Ba3 Ba3 Ba2 Ba3 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Baa2 Baa3 Baa3 Baa2 Baa3 Baa2 A3 A3 Baa1 A3 A3 A1 Aa3 Aa3 Ba1 Venezuela Argentina Bolivia Paraguay Brasil Colombia Uruguay Peru Mexico Chile 5
Desarrollo de la Industria Aseguradora La Densidad del Seguro Ha Crecido Sostenidamente Primas y PIB per Cápita en USD PIB Per Cápita Primas Per Cápita 3.5 $42 45 3.0 $34 $38 40 35 PIB per Capita (MIles) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 $25 $1.9 $29 $2.3 $2.5 $2.8 $3.0 30 25 20 15 10 Primas per Capita 0.5 5 0.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-6
Desarrollo de la Industria Aseguradora Penetración del Seguro por Debajo del Promedio Regional Bolivia LatAm 3.5% Primas como % del PIB 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 7
2 Posición de Mercado y Marca 8
Posición de Mercado y Marca Cuota de mercado y grado de participación en relación a competidores. Especialización en algún nicho de negocios determinado. Formador de precios / economía de escala. Arraigo de la marca entre intermediarios / asegurados, imagen y reputación. Fidelidad del cliente (tasas de retención). Tasas de crecimiento/decrecimiento de participación 9
Posición de Mercado y Marca Situaciones de Atención Compañía A 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 10
Posición de Mercado y Marca Situaciones de Atención Compañía B 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 11
3 Programa y Políticas de Reaseguro 12
Programa y Políticas de Reaseguro Aspectos Técnicos Relación entre el capital y retención máxima por riesgo / evento. Relación entre el grado de madurez de la compañía en sus distintos ramos y el programa de reaseguro. Criterios utilizados para la elección del programa de reaseguro. Solidez del panel reasegurador. Controles Internos/Gobierno Corporativo Controles internos para la suscripción de grandes riesgos facultativos. Situaciones de Reaseguro Financiero. 13
4 Rentabilidad 14
Tasas de Interés Seguros de Personas Rendimientos BTS/LTS 4.0% Tasas BTS/LTS Promedio 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 15
Tasas de Interés Seguros de Personas Rendimientos DPFs 4.0% Tasas DPF Promedio Tasas BTS Promedio 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 16
Tasas de Interés Seguros de Personas Intereses Acreditados a Rentistas 16.0% Tasas DPF Promedio Tasas BTS Promedio Intereses s/rentas vitalicias 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 17
Tasas de Interés Seguros de Personas Spread Negativo Para las Aseguradoras 20% Tasas DPF Promedio Tasas BTS Promedio Intereses s/rentas vitalicias Spread Estimado * 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 * Retorno estimado de cartera de inversions neto de intereses pagados a rentas vitalicias. 18
5 Reservas de Siniestros Pendientes 19
Reservas de Siniestros Pendientes Cifras en millones de bolivianos al 31 de diciembre de 2014 Reservas de Ramo Siniestros (sin IBNR % IBNR IBNR) Accidentes de tránsito 48 3 5% Accidentes personales 6 0 0.2% Aeronavegaciòn 1 Automotores 69 0 0.2% Desgravamen 21 28 132% Incendio y aliados 12 0 0% Resp. Civil 10 Salud 4 Miscelaneos 16 Ramos Técnicos 15 Fianzas 42 Otros Ramos 34 Total 279 30 11% 20
Reservas de Siniestros Pendientes (A) No incluye mercado de fianzas. (B) Era 14% en 2013, antes de la adopción de normas de constitución de IBNR. 21
Estimación del IBNR Ejemplo: Ramo Incendio para una compañía representativa del mercado Año de Ocurrencia Año de Desarrollo 0 1 2 3 4 5 2009 100 103 104 105 105 105 2010 100 113 112 109 109 2011 100 144 145 145 2012 100 136 143 2013 100 112 2014 100 Siniestro Ultimo (5 años de desarrollo) 105 109 145 143 114 130 % de siniestralidad no conocida 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 30% La totalidad de los siniestros no son conocidos el año en el que ocurren. Se estima que para aquellos siniestros ocurridos en 2014, aún resta por conocerse un 30% más. El monto al que arribamos pasados los 5 años, es el Siniestro Ultimo. 22
Estimación del IBNR Otros ramos representativos del mercado Automotores Siniestros Ocurridos en 2014 100 Estimación a 2019 105 Ramos Técnicos 100 120 Desgravamen Hipotecario 100 125 Incendio y Aliados 100 130 Riesgos Varios Misceláneos 100 150 Seguros de Fianzas 100 200 23
6 Perspectivas 24
Perspectivas Principales Aspectos a Destacar Crecimiento, en línea con el desempeño de la economía, aunque a un ritmo un tanto menor al de años anteriores. Seguirá la baja participación de los seguros en la economía. Bajas tasas de mercado continuarán presionando rentas vitalicias. Riesgo de insuficiencia de reservas, en la medida que no se adopten nuevas normas que apuntalen dichos pasivos. Posible convergencia de prácticas contables y de solvencia con estándares internacionales en el largo plazo, en línea con otros países de la región. 25
Muchas Gracias 26
Alan Murray (1) 212.553.7787 alan.murray@moodys.com Diego Nemirovsky (54 11) 5129.2627 diego.nemirovsky@moodys.com Florencia Calvente (54 11) 5129.2639 florencia.calvente@moodys.com 27
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