Securitizaciones en Argentina Situación Crediticia Post-Default y Perspectivas 2015 MARTÍN FERNÁNDEZ ROMERO, VICE PRESIDENT SENIOR CREDIT OFFICER OCTUBRE 2014
Agenda 1. Situación Crediticia 2. Mercado 3. Perspectivas 2015 2
1 Situación Crediticia Post-Default 3
Deterioro de las Condiciones Macro» Deterioro del Poder de Compra Caída del Salario Real Ajuste de Tarifas» Menor Nivel de Actividad Económica Suba del Desempleo Caída del Empleo» Empeoramiento de la Calidad Crediticia de Provincias y Municipios Menos alternativas de financiamiento externo post-default 4
Caída de los Salarios Reales La Inflación en Alimentos y Bebidas está Creciendo a una Tasa Mayor que los Salarios 45% Sector Privado Sector Público Inflación Alimentos y Bebidas 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Fuente: INDEC & PriceStats 5
Disminución de la Actividad Económica Variación Interanual EMI (Estimador Mensual Industrial) - Desestacionalizado 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Fuente: INDEC 6
Suba del Desempleo, Estancamiento del Empleo El Desempleo Continúa en Niveles Bajos, pero se Observa un Cambio de Tendencia 9,00% 8,00% 7,00% 6,00% 5,00% 4,00% 3,00% 2,00% 1,00% 0,00% Desempleo Total ( ) Empleo Total ( ) 44,00% 43,50% 43,00% 42,50% 42,00% 41,50% 41,00% 40,50% 40,00% Fuente: INDEC 7
Heatmap: Impacto Diferenciado por Tipo de Activo Los más afectados: préstamos de consumo, sin débito automático TIPO DE ACTIVO DETERIORO EN EL PODER DE COMPRA MAYOR DESEMPLEO EMPEORAMIENTO DE LA CALIDAD CREDITICIA DEL AGENTE DE PAGO Préstamos de Consumo Finco/Electro Préstamos de Consumo Bancos Débito Automático Código de Descuento Préstamos Prendarios Leasing 8
Indicadores de Performance Índices de Morosidad a más de 90 Días (% Sobre Saldo Original) Fideicomisos Calificados por Moody s % Débito Automático Prendarios & Leasing Bancos Compañías Financieras 14 12 10 8 6 4 2-2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Fuente: Moody s 9
Desempeño de los Fideicomisos en el Default 2001/2002» Fideicomisos Denominados en Pesos Fuerte deterioro de las carteras por el colapso macroeconómico Las títulos se pagaron en tiempo y forma» Subordinación & Spreads» Fideicomisos Denominados en Dólares, Legislación Local Se pesificaron tanto los activos (préstamos) como los pasivos (títulos) Se consideraron en default dado que se modificaron las condiciones pautadas originalmente con los inversores ( devolver dólares ) Las carteras pesificadas se desempeñaron de forma similar a las de los fideicomisos en pesos» Fideicomisos Denominados en Dólares, Legislación Extranjera Algunas transacciones respaldadas por hipotecas Los hipotecas fueron alcanzadas por la pesificación, los títulos no Fuerte descalce de moneda que terminó en default de los títulos Disputa entre los tenedores de tramos intermedios y el fiduciario 10
Transacciones Denominadas en Dólares» Transacciones Pagaderas en Pesos al Tipo de Cambio Se las considera transacciones en moneda local No deben acceder al mercado de cambio para pagar el servicio de deuda Bajo riesgo de redenominación» Transacciones Pagaderas en Dólares Típicamente transacciones cross-border El fiduciario debe acceder al mercado de cambios para pagar el servicio de deuda Por el momento no hay restricciones por parte del BCRA Protecciones estructurales» Fondos de reserva en el exterior» Cláusulas BONEX» Otros 11
2 Mercado 12
Millones de Pesos Cantidad de Emisiones Situación Crediticia Mercado Perspectivas Menos Transacciones, Montos Crecen Menos que la Inflación Emisiones Totales de Fideicomisos, de Enero a Agosto, en Pesos 18.000 16.000 14.000 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 Fideicomisos Financieros (ARS) Fideicomisos de Infraestructura (ARS) Cantidad de Emisiones 144 +17% 131 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 Fuente: Moody s, con datos de la Bolsa de Comercio de Buenos Aires 13
Millones de Dólares Situación Crediticia Mercado Perspectivas Caen los Montos Medidos en Dólares Emisiones Totales de Fideicomisos, de Enero a Agosto, en Dólares 4.000 3.500 3.000 Fideicomisos Financieros (USD) Fideicomisos de Infraestructura (USD) 2.500 2.000-23% 1.500 1.000 500 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Fuente: Moody s, con datos de la Bolsa de Comercio de Buenos Aires 14
Tipos de Activos Securitizados Emisiones de Fideicomisos, Excluyendo Infraestructura, de Enero a Agosto 2014, en ARS Préstamos de Consumo 74% Tarjetas de Crédito Privadas 16% Otros 10% Cuentas por Cobrar - Agro 23% Préstamos PYME Garantizados 21% Préstamos Automotores 5% Otros 1% Leasing 27% Flujos Futuros 23% Fuente: Moody s, con datos de la Bolsa de Comercio de Buenos Aires 15
Tipos de Fiduciantes Emisiones de Fideicomisos, Excluyendo Infraestructura, de Enero a Agosto 2014, en ARS 17% 5% 5% 2% Cadenas de Electrodomésticos Bancos Compañías Financieras 30% Agro Cooperativas PYMEs 41% Fuente: Moody s, con datos de la Bolsa de Comercio de Buenos Aires 16
3 Perspectivas 2015 17
Perspectivas 2015» Incertidumbre Macroeconómica Mayor Inflación Mayor Morosidad en Carteras de Consumo sin Pago Automático» Montos Emitidos en Pesos Crecen al Ritmo de la Inflación Emisores recurrentes continuarán utilizando los fideicomisos como mecanismo de fondeo» Continuidad y Crecimiento del Fondeo para el Sector Agro» Estructuras Revolventes Menor incidencia de costos fijos Mayor eficiencia en el proceso de aprobación regulatoria 18
Martín Fernández-Romero Vice President - Senior Credit Officer Buenos Aires +54 (11) 5129-2621 martin.fernandez-romero@moodys.com 19
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