Trump y la relación comercial México Estados Unidos November 2016 1
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Manufacturing Empleo manufacturero employment EE.UU USA Participación de México en importaciones EE.UU. 110 105 NAFTA China OMC Great Recession 15 14 100 13 95 12 90 11 85 10 80 9 75 8 70 7 65 6 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Fuente: Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Census Bureau y INEGI 3
110 Empleo manufacturero EE.UU Empleo manufacturero México 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 Fuente: Bureau of Labor Statistics e INEGI 4
México 2 0-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 R² = 0.0018 Empleo manufacturero EE.UU -2-4 -6-8 -10 Participación México importaciones EE.UU Fuente: Elaboración propia con Bureau of Labor Statistics y US Census Bureau 5
China 4 2 Empleo manufacturero EE.UU 0-1.5-1.0-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5-2 -4-6 R² = 0.3583-8 -10 Participación China importaciones EE.UU Fuente: Elaboración propia con Bureau of Labor Statistics y US Census Bureau 6
Cuota de mercado de las importaciones de Estados-Unidos Mexico China Canada Japan Germany 20 20.8 15 13.5 10 5 0 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Fuente: Fuente: Elaboración propia con US Census Bureau 7
Cuota de mercado de las exportaciones de Estados-Unidos México China Canada Japón European Union 25 20 15 16.0 10 7.4 5 0 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Fuente: Fuente: Elaboración propia con US Census Bureau 8
Mexico exportador Part B Mexico Major markets Exports to major trading partners and duties faced Bilateral imports Diversification MFN AVG of Pref. Duty-free imports 95% trade in no. in million traded TL margin TL Value of HS 2- HS 6- US$ Simple Weighted Weighted in % in % digit digit Agricultural products 1. United States of America 2013 18,493 21 102 7.2 6.4 6.2 99.7 99.9 2. Canada 2013 1,480 12 56 6.8 0.9 0.9 96.8 99.9 3. European Union 2013 1,206 20 60 13.4 6.5 4.4 75.8 81.3 4. Japan 2013 876 17 58 13.2 12.2 7.4 65.1 44.0 5. Venezuela 2013 332 12 21 16.6 16.4 1.0 0.0 0.0 Non agricultural products 1. United States of America 2013 251,714 51 582 3.5 1.9 1.9 100.0 100.0 2. Canada 2013 24,193 43 351 3.3 2.8 2.8 100.0 100.0 3. European Union 2013 20,846 51 401 4.4 2.0 2.0 99.8 100.0 4. China 2013 10,094 31 188 9.0 5.3 0.0 11.3 64.0 5. Brazil 2013 5,695 44 299 13.1 20.2 17.5 29.0 74.5 Fuente: OMC 9
Fuente: OMC Estados Unidos importador UNITED STATES MFN applied duties Imports AVG Duty-free Max Share Duty-free Product groups in % in % in % Animal products 2.2 30.8 26 0.4 24.9 Dairy products 17.2 0.3 188 0.1 14.2 Fruit, vegetables, plants 4.7 21.1 132 1.3 28.8 Coffee, tea 3.3 53.5 44 0.5 74.4 Cereals & preparations 3.0 20.1 44 0.7 31.5 Oilseeds, fats & oils 7.3 25.9 164 0.4 36.5 Sugars and confectionery 11.7 2.7 55 0.2 6.3 Beverages & tobacco 18.6 26.2 350 1.1 48.2 Cotton 4.8 38.3 18 0.0 79.0 Other agricultural products 1.0 61.0 52 0.3 67.5 Fish & fish products 0.8 84.6 35 0.8 90.4 Minerals & metals 1.8 60.9 38 12.5 73.4 Petroleum 1.3 0 11 13.4 0 Chemicals 2.8 40.8 7 9.8 65.0 Wood, paper, etc. 0.5 90.1 14 3.5 92.3 Textiles 7.9 15.0 41 1.9 12.6 Clothing 12.0 2.8 32 3.8 1.8 Leather, footwear, etc. 3.8 39.1 54 2.7 17.6 Non-electrical machinery 1.2 65.2 10 14.0 79.4 Electrical machinery 1.7 49.0 15 13.2 68.3 Transport equipment 3.1 55.3 25 13.0 15.0 Manufactures, n.e.s. 2.5 44.2 36 6.6 70.8 10
Estados Unidos exportador Part B Major markets Exports to major trading partners and duties faced Bilateral imports Diversification MFN AVG of Pref. Duty-free imports in million 95% trade in no. of traded TL margin TL Value Agricultural products US$ HS 2-digit HS 6-digit Simple Weighted Weighted in % in % 1. China 2013 25,365 17 31 15.4 11.2 1.8 7.4 5.6 2. Canada 2013 21,256 27 254 22.4 12.0 5.8 91.7 97.5 3. Mexico 2013 19,557 30 406 22.2 38.4 37.3 96.0 94.4 4. Japan 2013 14,518 30 324 22.0 19.1 0.0 23.0 36.2 5. European Union 2013 12,163 28 168 14.7 4.7 0.0 14.0 49.2 Non-agricultural products 1. Canada 2013 212,581 59 1,267 2.5 2.2 2.2 100.0 100.0 2. European Union 2013 200,485 65 1,388 4.4 1.5 0.0 24.0 66.1 3. Mexico 2013 163,907 69 2,350 8.8 7.7 7.5 99.4 99.1 4. China 2013 120,416 56 888 9.0 5.0 0.0 8.8 36.5 5. Japan 2013 54,081 63 1,066 3.0 0.7 0.0 55.5 84.8 Fuente: OMC 11
Fuente: OMC Mexico importador México MFN applied duties Imports AVG Duty-free Max Share Duty-free Product groups in % in % in % Animal products 29.8 5.6 150 1.2 2.6 Dairy products 27.0 3.1 75 0.5 9.0 Fruit, vegetables, plants 16.6 5.2 150 0.6 4.3 Coffee, tea 26.7 4.2 75 0.2 9.7 Cereals & preparations 13.1 15.2 75 1.8 61.0 Oilseeds, fats & oils 11.4 39.5 100 1.5 65.0 Sugars and confectionery 43.3 0 150 0.3 0 Beverages & tobacco 27.2 2.6 67 0.3 17.1 Cotton 0.0 100.0 0 0.1 100.0 Other agricultural products 6.7 47.6 36 0.6 57.0 Fish & fish products 17.0 9.6 20 0.2 9.4 Minerals & metals 2.8 75.6 15 12.0 80.4 Petroleum 0.1 98.1 5 6.8 97.9 Chemicals 2.4 72.2 27 12.5 56.9 Wood, paper, etc. 4.4 50.8 15 3.0 65.7 Textiles 9.8 11.4 25 2.4 21.8 Clothing 21.1 0 25 0.8 0 Leather, footwear, etc. 6.2 61.6 46 2.2 58.4 Non-electrical machinery 2.8 77.8 20 16.9 89.8 Electrical machinery 3.5 69.2 20 22.0 83.5 Transport equipment 8.5 45.7 50 9.3 49.5 Manufactures, n.e.s. 5.2 56.9 20 4.8 71.1 12
6 Crecimiento promedio annual para el periodo 1994-2014 5 5.0 4 3 2 2.4 1.9 1 0.8 0 North Dakota Oregon Texas Utah Arizona South Dakota Colorado Idaho Nevada California Wyoming New Hampshire North Carolina Washington Oklahoma Minnesota Massachusetts Georgia Nebraska Florida Iowa Virginia Maryland United States Arkansas Montana New York Vermont Tennessee New Mexico South Carolina Kansas Alabama Indiana Delaware Connecticut Wisconsin Rhode Island Pennsylvania Kentucky District of Columbia New Jersey Missouri Illinois Alaska Mississippi Ohio Louisiana Maine West Virginia Hawaii Michigan Fuente: US Bureau Census 13
Crecimiento anual T2-T3 2015 10 9.2 8 6 4 3.7 2 1.9 0-2 -4 South Dakota Kansas Iowa Nebraska Idaho Hawaii Indiana Montana Wisconsin Utah Minnesota Michigan Missouri North Carolina South Carolina Maine Pennsylvania Colorado Maryland Kentucky Ohio Alabama Oregon Massachusetts Arizona Tennessee Rhode Island Vermont California Georgia Florida Mississippi Arkansas United States New Hampshire Connecticut Illinois Louisiana New Jersey District of Columbia Virginia Delaware Washington New York Nevada New Mexico Wyoming Texas Oklahoma Alaska West Virginia North Dakota -3.4 Fuente: US Bureau Census 14
Tasa de desempleo Mayo 2016 8 7 6.7 6 5 4 5.0 4.7 3 2.5 2 1 0 Alaska Illinois Louisiana West Virginia New Mexico District of Columbia Alabama Nevada Mississippi Washington Connecticut South Carolina Arizona Wyoming Pennsylvania Rhode Island Georgia California Kentucky North Carolina Ohio Indiana New Jersey United States Florida Michigan New York Oklahoma Maryland Oregon Texas Missouri Wisconsin Massachusetts Montana Tennessee Delaware Iowa Arkansas Virginia Minnesota Utah Kansas Idaho Maine Colorado Hawaii North Dakota Vermont Nebraska New Hampshire South Dakota Fuente: Bureau of Labour Statistics 15
Cuota de mercado de las importaciones de autopartes de Estados-Unidos Taiwan 2% Thailand 1% Italy 2% Korea 5% Other 20% Mexico 62,799 28% Total NAFTA 37% Germany 7% Canada 9% Japan 9% China 17% Fuente: UN Comtrade
Cuota de mercado de las exportaciones de autopartes de Estados-Unidos Australia 2% Korea 2% Brazil 2% Japan 2% Other 21% Mexico 41,563 32% Total NAFTA 61% United Kingdom 3% Germany 3% China 4% Fuente: UN Comtrade Canada 29%
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