ESTIMACIÓN DE LA FUNCIÓN DE EXPORTACIONES DE CATALUÑA A LOS PRINCIPALES PAÍSES EUROPEOS Estimaciones individuales Dependent Variable: LOG(X?) Method: Pooled Least Squares Date: 11/23/02 Time: 13:14 Sample(adjusted): 1988:1 1999:4 Included observations: 48 after adjusting endpoints Number of cross-sections used: 6 Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 260 FR--LOG(PIBFR) 1.882417 0.951922 1.977490 0.0492 GR--LOG(PIBGR) 3.705778 1.586783 2.335402 0.0204 IT--LOG(PIBIT) 2.937565 1.256439 2.338008 0.0203 PO--LOG(PIBPO) 2.170656 0.609146 3.563443 0.0004 RU--LOG(PIBRU) 2.238428 0.822457 2.721635 0.0070 RE--LOG(PIBRE) 2.314900 0.679931 3.404613 0.0008 FR--LOG(PRFR) -1.074719 0.247892-4.335432 0.0000 GR--LOG(PRGR) -0.601663 0.181157-3.321231 0.0011 IT--LOG(PRIT) -0.991921 0.239855-4.135502 0.0001 PO--LOG(PRPO) -1.004370 0.264094-3.803072 0.0002 RU--LOG(PRRU) -0.365162 0.207224-1.762157 0.0794 RE--LOG(PRRE) -0.977464 0.315444-3.098696 0.0022 FR--LOG(PRODUCT) 2.658606 0.541334 4.911211 0.0000 GR-- 1.704086 0.707282 2.409344 0.0168 LOG(PRODUCT) IT--LOG(PRODUCT) 1.719042 0.596846 2.880212 0.0044 PO--LOG(PRODUCT) 2.474519 0.603731 4.098709 0.0001 RU--LOG(PRODUCT) 2.250296 0.499005 4.509564 0.0000 RE--LOG(PRODUCT) 1.829203 0.592927 3.085040 0.0023 FR--F2 0.010975 0.030188 0.363556 0.7165 GR--F2 0.051444 0.035002 1.469749 0.1431 IT--F2 0.018653 0.030217 0.617299 0.5377 PO--F2 0.019272 0.031695 0.608031 0.5438 RU--F2 0.065296 0.030421 2.146399 0.0329 RE--F2-0.037948 0.034850-1.088918 0.2774 FR--F3-0.160215 0.030255-5.295406 0.0000 GR--F3-0.112066 0.035106-3.192194 0.0016 IT--F3-0.238170 0.030311-7.857470 0.0000 PO--F3-0.097295 0.031900-3.049992 0.0026 RU--F3-0.072705 0.030319-2.397980 0.0173 RE--F3-0.145727 0.034913-4.173966 0.0000 FR--F4-0.020203 0.030401-0.664549 0.5070 GR--F4 0.049552 0.034973 1.416887 0.1579 IT--F4-0.037037 0.030354-1.220147 0.2237 PO--F4-0.004846 0.032501-0.149105 0.8816 RU--F4 0.027975 0.030250 0.924817 0.3561 RE--F4 0.020286 0.035006 0.579506 0.5628 FR--C -4.441101 GR--C -12.01156 IT--C -9.293600 PO--C -5.650735 RU--C -6.214165 RE--C -5.956482 R-squared 0.979534 Mean dependent var 5.279773
Adjusted R-squared 0.975685 S.D. dependent var 0.473719 S.E. of regression 0.073868 Sum squared resid 1.189505 Log likelihood 331.4048 F-statistic 254.4880 Durbin-Watson stat 1.593010 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Estimación modelo de efectos fijos Dependent Variable: LOG(X?) Method: Pooled Least Squares Date: 11/23/02 Time: 13:15 Sample(adjusted): 1988:1 1999:4 Included observations: 48 after adjusting endpoints Number of cross-sections used: 6 Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 260 LOG(PIB?) 1.980629 0.246744 8.027043 0.0000 LOG(PR?) -0.836394 0.074905-11.16602 0.0000 LOG(PRODUCT) 2.384713 0.149943 15.90418 0.0000 F2 0.021157 0.014209 1.489009 0.1378 F3-0.141288 0.014221-9.935353 0.0000 F4 0.003113 0.014267 0.218218 0.8274 FR--C -4.863775 GR--C -4.171899 IT--C -4.990902 PO--C -4.694532 RU--C -4.971188 RE--C -4.583994 R-squared 0.972045 Mean dependent var 5.279773 Adjusted R-squared 0.970805 S.D. dependent var 0.473719 S.E. of regression 0.080942 Sum squared resid 1.624784 Log likelihood 290.8658 F-statistic 783.9548 Durbin-Watson stat 1.397077 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Test paso de ecuaciones individuales a efectos fijos S 1 =1.189505 S 0 =1.624784 Número de restricciones =35 (1.624784 1.189505) /30 Test F= = 2.63 F 35, 216 = 1.6 al nivel del 1%, lo que permite 1.189505/(260 44) rechazar la hipótesis nula.
Ecuaciones individuales estimadas por SURE Dependent Variable: LOG(X?) Method: Seemingly Unrelated Regression Date: 11/23/02 Time: 13:15 Sample: 1988:1 1999:4 Included observations: 48 Number of cross-sections used: 6 Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 260 Convergence achieved after 9 iterations FR--LOG(PIBFR) 1.167642 0.586848 1.989682 0.0479 GR--LOG(PIBGR) 1.929829 1.232500 1.565784 0.1188 IT--LOG(PIBIT) 2.658298 0.758756 3.503498 0.0006 PO--LOG(PIBPO) 1.817725 0.464508 3.913224 0.0001 RU--LOG(PIBRU) 1.940344 0.658669 2.945856 0.0036 RE--LOG(PIBRE) 2.235873 0.717407 3.116604 0.0021 FR--LOG(PRFR) -0.752582 0.156075-4.821939 0.0000 GR--LOG(PRGR) -0.353883 0.146365-2.417809 0.0164 IT--LOG(PRIT) -0.945127 0.137816-6.857884 0.0000 PO--LOG(PRPO) -0.720418 0.196012-3.675385 0.0003 RU--LOG(PRRU) -0.467143 0.162555-2.873754 0.0045 RE--LOG(PRRE) -0.488137 0.335446-1.455187 0.1471 FR--LOG(PRODUCT) 3.084926 0.339807 9.078464 0.0000 GR-- 2.594159 0.554226 4.680685 0.0000 LOG(PRODUCT) IT--LOG(PRODUCT) 1.808447 0.362200 4.992951 0.0000 PO--LOG(PRODUCT) 2.914045 0.457589 6.368251 0.0000 RU--LOG(PRODUCT) 2.393136 0.401638 5.958441 0.0000 RE--LOG(PRODUCT) 2.240104 0.621911 3.601968 0.0004 FR--F2 0.013116 0.024002 0.546433 0.5853 GR--F2 0.041346 0.030554 1.353205 0.1774 IT--F2 0.022676 0.020209 1.122093 0.2631 PO--F2 0.029980 0.028436 1.054288 0.2929 RU--F2 0.063013 0.029633 2.126404 0.0346 RE--F2-0.051607 0.039703-1.299827 0.1950 FR--F3-0.155076 0.024048-6.448602 0.0000 GR--F3-0.121737 0.030605-3.977647 0.0001 IT--F3-0.230899 0.020266-11.39319 0.0000 PO--F3-0.084485 0.028576-2.956467 0.0035 RU--F3-0.070859 0.029583-2.395275 0.0175 RE--F3-0.151520 0.039769-3.810033 0.0002 FR--F4-0.015226 0.024134-0.630868 0.5288 GR--F4 0.038822 0.030523 1.271897 0.2048 IT--F4-0.030130 0.020304-1.483934 0.1393 PO--F4 0.012979 0.029078 0.446344 0.6558 RU--F4 0.028520 0.029549 0.965181 0.3355 RE--F4 0.006449 0.039867 0.161757 0.8716 FR--C -1.180585 GR--C -4.037323 IT--C -8.003288 PO--C -4.064179 RU--C -4.821155 RE--C -5.721833 Weighted Statistics Unweighted Statistics R-squared 0.978614 Mean dependent var 5.279773 Adjusted R-squared 0.974592 S.D. dependent var 0.473719
S.E. of regression 0.075511 Sum squared resid 1.243015 Durbin-Watson stat 1.560778 Modelo de efectos fijos estimado por SURE Dependent Variable: LOG(X?) Method: Seemingly Unrelated Regression Date: 11/23/02 Time: 13:17 Sample: 1988:1 1999:4 Included observations: 48 Number of cross-sections used: 6 Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 260 Convergence achieved after 13 iterations LOG(PIB?) 1.722563 0.198322 8.685685 0.0000 LOG(PR?) -0.779774 0.066306-11.76016 0.0000 LOG(PRODUCT) 2.461583 0.117279 20.98910 0.0000 F2 0.023580 0.017676 1.333993 0.1834 F3-0.182183 0.017691-10.29807 0.0000 F4-0.013648 0.017720-0.770225 0.4419 FR--C -3.645788 GR--C -2.984256 IT--C -3.780512 PO--C -3.465484 RU--C -3.740933 RE--C -3.387267 Weighted Statistics Unweighted Statistics R-squared 0.969970 Mean dependent var 5.279773 Adjusted R-squared 0.968638 S.D. dependent var 0.473719 S.E. of regression 0.083892 Sum squared resid 1.745402 Durbin-Watson stat 1.399660 Test paso de las ecuaciones individuales estimadas por SURE a Efectos Fijos estimados por SURE A través de las siguientes instrucciones: Pr ocs MakeSystem Estimate se obtiene: 1 = 1.39 10 0 = 1.63 10 15 14 LR=2 (L * 1 L * 0) = T ln 0 = 118.16 χ30 1 = 51 al nivel del 1%, lo que permite rechazar la hipótesis nula.
AHORRO Y CRECIMIENTO SEGÚN EL MODELO DE CICLO VITAL Economía sin crecimiento Economía con crecimiento Por tanto, a pesar de que cada generación consuma su ahorro y legue herencias nulas, si la economía crece el ahorro agregado es positivo porque lo que las generaciones jóvenes ahorran sistemáticamente excede a lo que las generaciones de retirados desahorran.
ESTIMACIÓN DE LOS EFECTOS DEL CRECIMIENTO SOBRE LA TASA DE AHORRO EN LOS PAÍSES DE LA UNIÓN EUROPEA Los datos empleados están formados por medias de diez años de las tasa de ahorro nacional bruto con relación al PIB y por medias de crecimiento referido al PIB para estos mismos periodos. Las medias contempladas hacen referencia a las décadas de los sesenta (1961-1970), de los setenta (1971-1980) y de los ochenta (1981-1990). Estimación modelo de efectos fijos por MCO Dependent Variable: S? Method: Pooled Least Squares Date: 05/20/02 Time: 17:19 Sample: 1 3 Included observations: 3 Number of cross-sections used: 14 Total panel (balanced) observations: 42 G? 1.239689 0.264353 4.689514 0.0001 AT--C 22.16908 BE--C 16.76770 DK--C 15.80490 ES--C 17.89743 FI--C 20.26384 FR--C 19.39717 GR--C 20.69743 IR--C 12.71865 IT--C 20.16521 NL--C 21.03437 PO--C 19.90680 SE--C 17.64623 UK--C 14.90078 WD--C 20.72363 R-squared 0.770909 Mean dependent var 23.10000 Adjusted R-squared 0.652121 S.D. dependent var 3.847901 S.E. of regression 2.269542 Sum squared resid 139.0722 F-statistic 6.489782 Durbin-Watson stat 3.327183 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000018
Estimación modelo de efectos estocásticos Dependent Variable: S? Method: GLS (Variance Components) Date: 05/20/02 Time: 17:20 Sample: 1 3 Included observations: 3 Number of cross-sections used: 14 Total panel (balanced) observations: 42 C 18.42008 1.186678 15.52239 0.0000 G? 1.283006 0.255349 5.024526 0.0000 Random Effects AT--C 2.792944 BE--C -1.394419 DK--C -2.127053 ES--C -0.560253 FI--C 1.304259 FR--C 0.631665 GR--C 1.612743 IR--C -4.567024 IT--C 1.223237 NL--C 1.916813 PO--C 0.995792 SE--C -0.696937 UK--C -2.815270 WD--C 1.683502 GLS Transformed Regression R-squared 0.664940 Mean dependent var 23.10000 Adjusted R-squared 0.656564 S.D. dependent var 3.847901 S.E. of regression 2.255003 Sum squared resid 203.4015 Durbin-Watson stat 2.286839 Unweighted Statistics including Random Effects R-squared 0.747002 Mean dependent var 23.10000 Adjusted R-squared 0.740677 S.D. dependent var 3.847901 S.E. of regression 1.959495 Sum squared resid 153.5848 Durbin-Watson stat 3.028598
Estimación del modelo de efectos fijos por MC ponderados Dependent Variable: S? Method: GLS (Cross Section Weights) Date: 05/20/02 Time: 17:21 Sample: 1 3 Included observations: 3 Number of cross-sections used: 14 Total panel (balanced) observations: 42 Convergence achieved after 6 iterations G? 1.330743 0.082269 16.17554 0.0000 AT--C 21.85343 BE--C 16.46419 DK--C 15.54085 ES--C 17.47858 FI--C 19.92087 FR--C 19.05420 GR--C 20.27858 IR--C 12.33319 IT--C 19.81010 NL--C 20.73086 PO--C 19.47884 SE--C 17.38520 UK--C 14.67314 WD--C 20.44136 Weighted Statistics R-squared 0.999262 Mean dependent var 52.19698 Adjusted R-squared 0.998879 S.D. dependent var 67.92257 S.E. of regression 2.274509 Sum squared resid 139.6816 F-statistic 2609.683 Durbin-Watson stat 3.058891 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Unweighted Statistics R-squared 0.769902 Mean dependent var 23.10000 Adjusted R-squared 0.650592 S.D. dependent var 3.847901 S.E. of regression 2.274523 Sum squared resid 139.6833 Durbin-Watson stat 3.352997 Tipo modelo Coef. Beta Error estándar Efectos fijos 1.24 0.264 Efectos estocásticos 1.28 0.255 Efectos fijos ponderados 1.33 0.082