ARGENTINA: AN OVERVIEW Center for Hemispheric Policy University of Miami Miami, December 2011 Manuel Mora y Araujo Source of quantive information: Ipsos Argentina 1 1
WHERE ARGENTINA COMES FROM I. The golden age II. The age of decline THE PRESENT III. Social structure IV. Politics V. Society and public opinion THE FUTURE VI. What to expect 2 2
WHERE ARGENTINA COMES FROM I. THE GOLDEN AGE 3
BEFORE THE GOLDEN AGE (From the Spanish colonization until mid XIX century) * First, a poor Spanish colony * Then, a political unstable new republic * A stagnated economy * An illustrated elite, plenty of conflicts * A simple society * An almost deserted land, weak territorial links 4
THE ARGENTINE MIRACLE 1860-1930 Factors accounting for the miracle: * An illustrated elite * Institutions Immigration * Education * The agrarian revolution 5
WHERE ARGENTINA COMES FROM II. THE AGE OF DECLINE 6
SOCIETY AND ECONOMY IN THE AGE OF DECLINE 1930- crisis of social consensus strong dependence on exports highest inflation rate worldwide 7
POLITICS IN THE AGE OF DECLINE 1930- military regime - 1930-1983 Peronism - 1945-8
THE PRESENT III. SOCIAL STRUCTRE 9
SOCIAL STRUCTURE The expectations gap 1. The Argentina pattern: low economic growth + high aspirations 2. The end of the upward social mobility society 10
The Argentine Pattern of Development 450 400 350 300 250 Product 200 Expectations 150 100 50 0 11 1861 1866 1871 1876 1881 1886 1891 1896 1901 1906 1911 1916 1921 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Expectation s GAP
SOCIAL STRUCTURE A fragmented society Three main social segments three diverging sources of expectations 12
SOCIAL STRUCTURE OF TODAY S ARGENTINA SOCIAL SEGMENTS % CORRELATES UPPER high productivity 30 Prepared to be part of the knowlegde society MIDDLE medium/low productivity 40 Protected by the Government or by trade-unions. LOWER very low productivity 30. Low quality jobs, unemployment Excluded, marginal 13 1
THE PRESENT IV. POLITICS 14
POLITICS The society cannot be governed without social coalitions The Kirchner coalition: middle and lower segments A weak representation system 15
POLITICS The current political situation Increasing optimism High Government approval rate (again) 16
POLITICS Where the votes come from Vote intention for CFK: high across districts substantial in the lower segment, decisive in the middle one 17
SOCIAL STRUCTURE OF TODAY S ARGENTINA SOCIAL SEGMENTS % CORRELATES UPPER high productivity 30 Prepared to be part of the knowlegde society VOTO = CFK 5 % MIDDLE medium/low productivity LOWER very low productivity 40 30 Protected by the Government or by trade-unions. VOTO CFK = 20 %. Low quality jobs, unemployment Excluded, marginal VOTO CFK = 25 % 18 1
Optimism going up Cómo cree ud. que estará la Argentina dentro de un año? 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Set.'93 Abr.'94 Feb.'95 Jun.'95 Abr.'96 Dic.'97 Feb.'98 May.'98 Feb.'99 Jul.'99 Feb'2000 Jul.'2000 Oct.'2000 Dic.'2000 Mar.'01 Jul.'01 Nov.'01 Mzo.'02 Abr.'02 May.'02 Jun.'02 Ago.'02 Sep.'02 Oct'02 Nov'02 Dic '02 Ene '03 Feb '03 Mzo '03 Abr.'03 May.'03 Jul.'03 Sep.'03 Nov/Dic '03 Feb/Mzo '04 Abr/Myo '04 Jul'04 Sept`04 Nov'04 Dic '04 (1) Dic '04 (2) Dic '04 (3) Ene `05 Abr'05 Junio '05 Junio '05 (I) Agosto '05 Agosto '05 (I) Octubre '05 Octubre '05 (I) Octubre '05 (I) Noviem bre '05 Diciembre '05 Ene '06 Feb '06 Feb '06 (2) Feb '06 (3) Mzo '06 Abril'06 Mayo '06 Junio '06 Junio '06 (I) Julio '06 Agosto '06 Octubre '06 Noviem bre '06 Diciembre '06 Enero '07 Febrero '07 Mzo '07 Abril'07 Myo'07 Junio '07 Julio 07 (I) Julio 07 (I) Ago 07' Sept 07 Oct 07 Nov 07 Dic 07 (I) Dic 07 (I) Feb 08 Mar 08 Abr 08 Mayo 08 Junio/Julio 08 Julio/Agosto 08 Agosto 08 Octubre 08 Diciembre 08 Marzo 09 Mayo 09 Junio 09 Septiembre 09 Octubre 09 Diciembre 09 Febrero 10 Abriĺ10 Junio 10 Ago 10 Nov 10 Dic 10 Feb'11 Abr'11 Jun-11 Ago-11 Mejor país Peor país Base: total entrevistados (1200 casos) 19 19
High Government approval rate again 88 80 73 75 73 73 74 68 70 67 60 81 77 77 72 74 74 75 76 78 75 71 72 73 74 72 71 70 72 72 68 66 71 59 54 63 70 70 67 69 57 62 64 66 62 63 63 63 61 51 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 26 22 23 25 30 30 25 25 28 25 23 28 17 23 11 23 22 23 22 25 23 20 27 26 24 28 26 29 31 38 43 26 36 48 36 30 36 35 35 36 34 28 34 36 32 29 28 33 61 38 55 42 49 50 20 63 60 65 65 34 36 32 32 71 28 67 31 Nov 10 Dic 10 Feb' 10 Abr' 11 Jun 11 Ago' 11 100 90 2 Dic-04 Ene-05 Abr-05 Jun-05 Jul-05/ Ago-05 Ago-05 Ago-05 (II) Oct-05 Oct-05 (II) Oct-05 (III) Nov-05 Dic-05 Ene-06 Feb-06 Feb-06 (II) Feb-06 (III) Mzo '06 Abril '06 Mayo '06 Jun '06 Jun '06(II) Jul '06 Ago '06 Oct '06 Nov '06 Dic '06 Feb '07 Abril '07 Jun '07 Ago 07 Oct 07 Dic 07 Feb 08 Mar 08 Abr 08 May 08 Jun/Jul 08 Jul/Ago 08 Ago 08 Oct 08 Dic 08 Mar 09 May 09 Jun '09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Dic 09 Feb 10 Abr 10 Jun 10 Ago 10 Los porcentajes no suman 100% porque el porcentaje de Ns/Nr no se reporta en el cuadro Base: total entrevistados (1200 casos) APRUEBA DESAPRUEBA
Poor image of opposition leaders Cristina Alfonsin Carrio Duhalde Macri 100 90 80 70 60 61 60 65 68 72 50 46 40 30 20 10 38 41 3942 38 40 35 34 38 33 36 37 33 30 31 29 26 28 29 27 22 20 19 18 17 37 36 34 29 28 40 42 39 33 27 35 32 32 23 30 21 22 20 32 26 23 16 30 27 20 18 28 25 20 18 30 24 18 0 may-09 jun-09 oct-09 dic-09 feb-10 abr-10 jun-10 ago-10 nov-10 dic-10 feb-11 abr-11 Jun 11 Fuente: Banco de datos Ipsos Mora y Araujo. Total entrevistados: 1200 casos 21
The decline of political parties intermediation Está ud. afiliado o simpatiza con algún partido político? 2010 7 15 19 55 4 2009 13 15 9 58 5 2008 13 13 9 63 2 2007 11 11 9 68 1 2006 13 17 9 54 7 2005 13 17 12 55 3 2004 13 12 18 54 3 2003 21 9 8 58 4 2002 19 8 5 64 4 2001 14 12 8 60 6 2000 19 24 13 40 4 19 9 9 25 19 9 41 6 19 9 8 18 18 11 48 5 19 9 7 19 22 9 45 5 19 9 6 19 23 14 39 5 19 9 5 22 26 20 24 8 19 9 2 22 29 21 25 3 19 9 0 26 35 17 20 2 19 8 8 19 8 6 19 8 4 24 35 17 20 44 26 47 17 15 18 16 7 6 3 5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Afiliado Simpatiza No simpatiza pero podría llegar a simpatizar Nunca va a sentir simpatía por ninguno Ns/Nr Base: Total entrevistados (1200 casos) 22 22
THE PRESENT V. SOCIETY AND PUBLIC OPINION 23
SOCIETY AND PUBLIC OPINION The society A cosmopolitan urban society with a short term oriented culture shaped by 60 years of high inflation rates 24
SOCIETY AND PUBLIC OPINION A volatile public opinion Very short opinion cycles Strong changes in macroeconomic preferences 25
THE FUTURE VI. WHAT CAN WE EXPECT? 26
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT? A not much predictable country Creative, competent individualities A very innovative agro-industry Poor performance at organizations Sharp social contrasts 27
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT? A sociological intrigue: after all, Argentina works! 28
Source of quantitative information: Ipsos Argentina