Supply Chain Clustering: NAFTA Supply Chain Reliability Index. Gaston Cedillo

Transcripción

1 Supply Chain Clustering: NAFTA Supply Chain Reliability Index Gaston Cedillo

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4 4 AGENDA General context; Objectives; Methodology; First steps; Takeaways.

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6 6 REVERSE GLOBALIZATION Jean-Paul Rodrige (2010)

7 7 FUTURE SOURCING Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index (2013)

8 8 REVERSE GLOBALIZATION Total U.S. Trade with Canada/Mexico vs. BRICS/Japan/South Korea Brookings analysis of U.S. Census data (2011)

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10 1 0 Source: Supply Chain Digest, 2013

11 1 1 ADVANCED INDUSTRIES Advanced industries: Aerospace; Automotive; Electronics; Machinery; Pharmaceuticals; Precision instruments account for 47 percent of goods trade in the NAFTA.

12 1 2 Source: Manufacturing Sourcing Outlook, 2013

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14 1 4 OBJECTIVE To identify the key supply chain processes involved in advanced industries; To analyze performance from a logistics perspective (reliability in cost, transit times, and service); To design a quantitative model to analyze scenarios. To evaluate the effects of delays as well as disruptions along the key intermodal freight corridors. To provide insights for improving cross-border flows.

15 1 5 RESEARCH STEPS 1 Problem Identification Operations context = Systems point of view KPI s Identification Key data = ƒ (Time, Cost, Service) 2 Mapping Process Field Work + Literature = Abductive approach 3 Scenarios based on a mathematical model (quantitative approach) Modeling = Quantitative approach 4 Analysis & Conclusions Analysis = Quanti & Quali approach ¹ Changrui Ren and Jin Dong (2006). Linking strategic objectives to operations: Towards a more effective supply chain decision making. Winter Simulation Conference, pp

16 1 6 INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 8th Global car-producing country

17 1 7 AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY

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19 1 9 Sturgeon et al. (2007)

20 2 0 Percentage of suppliers selling parts to: That also supply: GM Ford Chrysler Chrysler Ford GM Asian manufacturers Based on: FT Deutschland, The Economist, CSM Worldwide, February-March 2009

21 2 1 Gaston Cedillo (2013)

22 2 2 SUPPLY CHAIN CLUSTERING Cluster n-1 Cluster n Cluster n+1 Global Supply Chain Region n-1 Region n Region n+1 Gaston Cedillo (2013)

23 Clúster n NAFTA members co-produce goods.

24 2 4 RELIABILITY Intermodal freight corridors The impact of specific improvements in logistics performance (time, cost, and reliability) on increased trade.¹ ¹ Hausman, Lee and Subramanian (2013). The Impact of Logistics Performance on Trade. Production and Operations Management, Volume 22, Issue 2, pages

25 RELIABILITY 2 5 International borders The impact of specific improvements in logistics performance (time, cost, and reliability) on increased trade.¹ Mexican Export Lot U.S. Federal Compound State Safety Inspection Facility SUPPLIER Warehouse /Yard Mexican export documentation verification & cargo inspection selection CBP primary inspection (document inspection) Visual vehicle safety inspection Warehouse /Yard CLIENT Mexican export cargo inspection Secondary inspection VACIS, X-Ray, FMCSA, Others Detailed state truck safety inspection Mexico U.S.A.

26 2 6 KEY FREIGHT FLOWS Los Ángeles Phoenix Tijuana Mexicali S. Luis Río Colorado Tucson Ensenada Nogales Cd. Juárez El Porvenir EE.UU. Hermosillo Ojinaga Ciudad Acuña San Antonio Houston Cuauhtémoc Chihuahua Piedras Negras Guaymas Navojoa Cd. Obregón Monclova Nuevo Laredo Corpus Christi Reynosa Topolobampo Ahome Guasave Gómez Palacio Saltillo Torreón Monterrey Matamoros Culiacán La Paz Durango Mazatlán Fresnillo Ciudad Victoria Cabo San Lucas LEYENDA Ciudades principales Nodos logísticos secundarios Nodos logísticos principales Relaciones logísticas Eje estructurante nacional consolidado Eje estructurante nacional a consolidar Corredores logísticos consolidados primer niv el Corredores logísticos consolidados segundo niv el Corredores logísticos en proceso de consolidación Corredores logísticos a consolidar Puerto Vallarta Manzanillo Zacatecas Aguascalientes Tepic Guadalaj ara Zamora Colima León Silao Lázaro Cárdenas S. Luis Potosí Irapuato Salamanca Uruapan Morelia Acapulco Guanajuato Celaya Toluca Ciudad Vallés Querétaro San Juan del Río Cd de México Poza Rica Pachuca CuernavacaPuebla Tlaxcala Tehuacán Chilpancingo Altamira Tampico Tuxpam Córdoba Papantla Xalapa Tuxtepec Oaxaca Veracruz S. Andrés Tuxtla Salina Cruz Tuxtla Gutiérrez Coatzacoalcos Reforma Minatitlán Huimanguillo Arrriaga Ocosingo Tapachula Progreso Cd del Carmen Villahermosa San Cristóbal de las Casas Campeche Guatemala Ciudad Hidalgo Mérida El Ceibo Belice El Salvador Cancún Playa del Carmen Chetumal Honduras ALG (2013)

27 2 7 LOGISTICS HUBS Los Ángeles Phoenix Tijuana Mexicali S. Luis Río Colorado Tucson Ensenada Nogales Cd. Juárez El Porvenir EE.UU. Hermosillo Ojinaga Ciudad Acuña San Antonio Houston Cuauhtémoc Chihuahua Piedras Negras Guaymas Cd. Obregón Monclova Corpus Christi Nuevo Laredo Navojoa Reynosa Topolobampo Ahome Guasave Gómez Palacio Saltillo Torreón Monterrey Matamoros Culiacán La Paz Durango Mazatlán Fresnillo Ciudad Victoria Cabo San Lucas Zacatecas Aguascalientes S. Luis Potosí Ciudad Vallés Altamira Tampico Tepic Guadalajara León Silao Guanajuato Querétaro Tuxpam Progreso Mérida Cancún LEYENDA Ciudades principales Nodos logísticos secundarios Puerto Vallarta Manzanillo Zamora Colima Irapuato Lázaro Cárdenas Salamanca Uruapan Morelia Toluca Cuernavaca Acapulco Celaya San Juan del Río Cd de México Pachuca Tlaxcala Puebla Tehuacán Chilpancingo Poza Rica Córdoba Papantla Xalapa Tuxtepec Oaxaca Veracruz S. Andrés Tuxtla Reforma Minatitlán Tuxtla Gutiérrez Coatzacoalcos Huimanguillo Campeche Cd del Carmen Villahermosa El Ceibo Belice Ocosingo Playa del Carmen Chetumal Nodos logísticos principales Relaciones logísticas consolidadas Salina Cruz Arriaga San Cristóbal de las Casas Tapachula Guatemala Ciudad Hidalgo Honduras El Salvador ALG (2013)

28 2 8 Los Ángeles SUPPLY CHAIN CLUSTERS Phoenix Tijuana Mexicali S. Luis Río Colorado Tucson Ensenada Nogales Cd. Juárez El Porvenir EE.UU. Hermosillo Ojinaga Ciudad Acuña San Antonio Houston Cuauhtémoc Chihuahua Piedras Negras Guaymas Navojoa Cd. Obregón Monclova Nuevo Laredo Corpus Christi Reynosa Topolobampo Ahome Guasave Gómez Palacio Saltillo Torreón Monterrey Matamoros Culiacán La Paz Durango Mazatlán Fresnillo Ciudad Victoria LEYENDA Macroámbitos funcionales Ciudades principales Nodos logísticos secundarios Nodos logísticos principales Relaciones logísticas consolidadas Cabo San Lucas Puerto Vallarta Manzanillo Zacatecas Aguascalientes Tepic Guadalajara Zamora Colima León Silao Lázaro Cárdenas S. Luis Potosí Irapuato Salamanca Uruapan Morelia Acapulco Guanajuato Celaya Toluca Ciudad Vallés Querétaro San Juan del Río Cd de México Poza Rica Pachuca CuernavacaPuebla Tlaxcala Tehuacán Chilpancingo Altamira Tampico Tuxpam Córdoba Papantla Xalapa Tuxtepec Oaxaca Veracruz S. Andrés Tuxtla Salina Cruz Tuxtla Gutiérrez Coatzacoalcos Reforma Minatitlán Huimanguillo Arrriaga Ocosingo Tapachula Progreso Cd del Carmen Villahermosa San Cristóbal de las Casas Campeche Guatemala Ciudad Hidalgo Mérida El Ceibo Belice Cancún Playa del Carmen Chetumal Honduras El Salvador ALG (2013)

29 2 9 AUTOMOTIVE PRODUCTION US $ 10 billion US $ 2 billion US $ 1 billion US $ 200 million US $ 1 billion US$ 3 billion Brookings Institution (2014)

30 3 0 Brookings Institution (2014)

31 3 2 INTERMODAL PERFORMANCE r s l i r d A B Logistics Hub A Intermediate logistics platforms Logistics Hub B Based on: Cheng (2012)

32 3 3 INTERMODAL PERFORMANCE The logistics platform costs are related to the process followed by the freight that uses this infrastructure Time spend at Gate (IN) Time spend at Gate (OUT)

33 3 4 KEY ISSUE Bueno and Cedillo-Campos (2014)

34 LAND BORDER CROSSING OPERATIONS Crossings grew from 2.8 to more than 5.0 million between 1995 and % annual average growth in the 17-year period Truck Crossings from Mexico into the US (millions) Villa (2014)

35 U.S. MEXICO BORDER U.S. MEXICO BORDER Mexican Side Starts Drayage 4 =97.5 min. =24.87 Secondary Cargo Inspection 5 =97.5 min. = Red Light Red Light Primary Cargo Inspection Green Light 0.90 Mx Facility Paperwork Process =40 min. =10.2 Point of Transfer =22.5 min. =5.74 MX Customs =0.75 min. =0.19 Green Light 0.98 Security Inspection 8 =1,830 min. = Secondary Cargo Inspection Safety Inspection Ends Drayage American Side 6 =166.5 min. = Primary Cargo Inspection =1.5 min. =0.38 No ATS Acceptable Risk? 9 Yes US Customs =0.75 min. = D.O.T. =15.5 min. =2.93 Point of Transfer =22.5 min. =5.74 U.S. Facility NON FAST = FAST =

36 Monthly Average Wait Time (in Minutes) LAND BORDER PERFORMANCE MEASURES U.S. BOUND TRUCK WAIT TIME TRENDS Month-Year Bridge of the Americas World Trade Bridge Zaragoza-Ysleta International Bridge Colombia International Bridge Pharr-Reynosa International Bridge Villa (2014)

37 3 8 ANALYSIS SCENARIOS Safety stock (NON-FAST 100% inspection) Safety Stock (NON-FAST 60% inspection) Increasing congestion at the border

38 3 9 ANALYSIS SCENARIOS Safety Stock (FAST 40% inspection) Safety Stock (FAST 10% inspection)

39 4 0 ANALYSIS SCENARIOS Safety Stock (FAST 0% inspection)

40 4 1 KEY ISSUE The opportunity to organize one of the largest regional manufacturing zones in the world exists (Black and Rodriguez, 2010; Manners-Bell, 2010). One of the key success factors for the region is to increase cross-border throughput, which is: the speed and volume with which products move through manufacturing processes, transportation and even customs at the border (Lawrence, Leon, 2011). reliability

41 4 2 INTERMODAL PERFORMANCE

42 4 3 INTERMODAL PERFORMANCE Worst Case 180, , RELIABILITY: Lead time, cost, and service quality 140, , , , , , , Option 1 Option US$ 95,274 US$ 153,121

43 4 4 INTERMODAL PERFORMANCE Worst Case Route 1 Route 2 3, BASIC COSTS 3, , BASIC COSTS 46, , , , OPERATIVE COSTS LOGISTICS PLATFORM COSTS TRANSIT TIME VARIABILITY SAFETY STOCK COSTS 44, , , OPERATIVE COSTS LOGISTICS PLATFORM COSTS TRANSIT TIME VARIABILITY SAFETY STOCK COSTS US$ 95,274 US$ 153,121

44 4 5 SECURITY MATTERS From a security approach... Congestion can be a security risk, since it has negative impacts on the rate of selected vehicles to inspection, on the time dedicated to the inspection process and on the quality with which it is carried out (U.S. General Accounting Office, 2000). Congestion and Delay = Higher Emissions + Security Fears

45 4 6 TAKEAWAYS Supply chain reliability is now a key element of NAFTA (regional) economic competitiveness; Consequently, to improve NAFTA supply chain performance (time, cost, and service) based on a supply chain clustering approach is a promising way to gain logistics competitiveness; To develop a NAFTA (regional) Supply Chain Reliability Performance Index based on advanced industries as automotive, aerospace or electronics is a logical starting point.

46 4 7 NAFTA SUPPLY CHAIN RELIABILITY INDEX Enables NAFTA Supply Chains to measure their own performance and do comparative analysis with other regions: Measuring reliability and variability in cost, transit times and service; Identification of bottlenecks/barriers; Concentrated on key strategic freight transport corridors; A source of baseline data to develop resiliency analysis; Measuring carbon footprint

47 4 8 NAFTA SUPPLY CHAINS - INDUSTRIAL CLUSTER 2013

48 4 9 NAFTA SUPPLY CHAINS - RISK SUPPLY CHAIN 2011

49 5 0 NAFTA SUPPLY CHAINS - CROSS-BORDER EFFECT

50 5 1 NAFTA SUPPLY CHAINS - DISRUPTIONS PROPAGATION

51 5 2 INDUSTRIAL CLUSTER + SUPPLY CHAIN

52 THANK YOU!