Una Oportunidad de Negocio que parece haberse dejado de lado: Administrando Márgenes y Ganancias en las Americas con Futuros sobre Arroz

Transcripción

1 Una Oportunidad de Negocio que parece haberse dejado de lado: Administrando Márgenes y Ganancias en las Americas con Futuros sobre Arroz Fred Seamon, Senior Director Commodity Research and Product Development Gerardo Luna, Senior Director, International Products & Services, Latin America Miami, FL, Junio 6, 2012

2 TEMAS Introducción - CME Group Funciones Economicas de los Mercados de Futuro Riesgo Administración de Riesgos Importancia Alternativas de coberturas con Futuros y Opciones Para Después: Integridad Financiera Los 10 Aspectos Clave de Jelinek para una Administración de Riesgo Exitosa Recursos 2

3 CME Group - Introducción

4 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) Commodity Exchange (COMEX) 4

5 Complejos de Productos de CME Group Commodity Tasa de Interés Tipo de Cambio Indices Accionarios A qué Riesgos está Expuesto? Precios de Commodity Costos de Energía Portafolio Financiero Fluctuaciones de Tipo de Cambio Inversiones Alternativas Energía Metales 5

6 Complejos de Productos de CME Group Granos y Oleaginosas: Corn Futures, Options & Swaps Wheat Corn Spread Options Mini-sized Corn Futures Ethanol Futures, Options and Swaps Oat Futures and Options Rough Rice Futures and Options Soybean Futures, Options & Swaps Mini-sized Soybean Futures Soybean Meal Futures and Options Soybean Oil Futures and Options Soybean Corn Price Ration Options Crude Palm Oil Futures Wheat Futures, Options & Swaps Mini-sized Wheat Futures Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, SoyOil, SoyMeal Calendar Spread Options Pecuarios: Feeder Cattle Futures and Options Live Cattle Futures and Options Lean Hogs Futures and Options Live Cattle & Lean Hog Calendar Spread Options Productos Lácteos: Butter Futures and Options Butter Spot Call Cash-Settled Butter Futures Milk Class III Futures and Options Milk Class IV Futures and Options Cheese Nonfat Dry Milk Futures and Options Dry Whey Futures

7 Funciones Económicas de la Industria de Futuros

8 Funciones Económicas de los Futuros Descubrimiento de Precio Mercados de Futuros Administración de Riesgo

9 Rentabilidad en la Cobertura de Precios Ingresos Costos Rentabilidad Aumentar rentabilidad mediante Aumentar ingresos Bajar costos Controlar rentabilidad por medio de Mejor planeación Mejor administración de precio

10 Riesgo e Importancia de su Administración

11 DEUA por Bushel Futuros de Maíz Riesgos y Oportunidades Maíz Cierres de Mercado 2002/12 $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1

12 El Riesgo de Precio está siempre Presente Problema Lo único cierto acerca del futuro es la incertidumbre! Solución Use las herramientas de administración de riesgo para administrar la incertidumbre en sus transacciones de contado (físico) en Latinoamérica

13 Volatilidades de Precio - (Promedios Anuales) Producto Trigo FrijolSoya Maíz Cerdo Pasta de Soya Aceite de Soya Alto Bajo Promedio 73.4% 8.1% 23.9% ( ) 60.0% 5.2% 20.6% ( ) 63.9% 5.6% 20.7% ( ) 89.1% 10.8% 29.6% ( ) 83.5% 6.3% 22.2% ( ) 67.5% 6.6% 21.9% ( ) % 37.9% 35.4% 43.3% 38.4% 33.7% 20.2% 21.6% 41.3% 36.8% 30.1% 38.5% 34.5% 37.1% 25.8% 24.8% 40.4% 42.2% 25.8% 22.8% 39.4% 29.3% 19.4% 20.7% Volatility is measurement of the change in price over a period of time. Historical Volatility is expressed as a percentage and is calculated by taking the standard deviation of the log-differences of the daily settlement prices of the underlying commodity over the course of the month. The result is multiplied by the square root of 252 (the number of trading days in a year). 13

14 Importancia de la Administración de Riesgo de Precio

15 Maíz: Futuro Cercano, Precio de Contado en Golfo y Base

16 $ per Hundredweight Correlación Precios EUA con Futuros Arroz CBOT Nearby Rough Rice Futures and FOB NOLA Spot Prices $25.00 Nearby Futures FOB NOLA $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $

17 Ejemplo Cadena Granos y Ac. Vegetales Mercado de Contado Uso/Almacenamiento en Campo Agricultor Operación Pecuaria Productor de Concentrado Compañía Semillera Procesadores de Alimentos/Bebidas Restaurantes Sistema de Elevadores Molineros / Refinadores Menudeo/Mayoreo Consumidor Mercados de Exportación Sector Energético Productos No Alimenticios Tiendas/Supermercados MERCADO DE FUTUROS

18 Herramientas para Administrar Riesgo de Precio Futuros, Opciones, Swaps, Contratos de Contado, Programas de Gobierno Todos diferentes en cuanto pros y contras Estúdielos, Practíquelos, Utilícelos Mejore sus administración de riesgo de precio 18

19 Hacer Algo, Hacer Nada 19

20 Ejemplo de Acciones Milenio Diario, 27/02, 2012, Pg

21 Alternativas para tomar Coberturas con Futuros y Opciones Programas de Gobierno El mercado mexicano HOY dispone de DOS con apoyos a coberturas Cuenta de la empresa con un broker Individual Grupo Cuenta de corretaje de empresa proveedora 21

22 Donde, Quienes, Que (solo como ejemplos) - Argentina - Brasil - Colombia - Costa Rica - Chile - Guatemala - Panamá - Paraguay - Rep. Dominicana - Uruguay Agricultores Comercializadores Ganaderos Plantas de Concentrado Productores de Cerdo Productores de Pollo, Huevo Alimentos Concentrados Maíz, Trigo, Soya, Cerdo, Res Alimentos Concentrados Juan Valdez FX / Tasas de Cambio 22

23 Coberturas de Granos en México (ASERCA, Programa de Gobierno) Notas: - Fuente: ASERCA, Marzo El Reporte de Programa de Prevención y Manejo de Riesgos (Componente Apoyo al Ingreso Objetivo y a la Comercialización, Apoyos a Coberturas de Precios de Productos y Especies Elegibles) para 2011 incluye apoyos a +/- 50 mil TM de Arroz 23

24 Excusas Para No Usar Administración de Riesgo Los precios no pueden moverse más arriba / abajo Excusa Débil La industria de futuros es muy complicada Excusa Débil La administración de riesgos es muy cara Excusa Débil Los márgenes de garantía son muy altos Las primas de Opciones son demasiado Ninguno de mis competidores administra riesgos Excusa Débil Tengo un buen control de los fundamentales de mercado Excusa Débil No creo en la protección de precio Excusa Débil NOTA: NO HAY EXCUSAS VALIDAS

25 Resumen de Administración de Riesgos Dicho en forma simple: Todo tiene que ver con su LIMITE Proteger y/o mejorar su POSICION DE MERCADO DE CONTADO

26 Integridad Financiera

27 Integridad de Mercado Regulación de Futuros Interna CME Group tiene 4 Organizaciones Auto reguladas (SRO) CME CBOT NYMEX COMEX Regulación Legal y de Mercado Externa Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) National Futures Association (NFA) *Nota: La legislación Dodd-Frank puede tener impacto en la regulación de mercado

28 Papel de CME Clearing en el Mercado El Modelo de Contraparte Central de Compensación

29 Los 10 Aspectos Clave de Jelinek para una Administración de Riesgo Exitosa

30 10 CLAVES PARA UNA ADMINISTRACIÓN DE RIESGO EXITOSA 1) Desarrolle un equipo 2) Consulte con asesores 3) Conozca sus alternativas 4) Desarrolle políticas corporativas 5) Desarrolle un plan 6) Involucre a favor a la administración 7) Siga con el plan pero manténgase flexible 8) Mantenga buenos registros 9) Revise los resultados 10) No mire hacia atrás

31 Resumen y Recursos

32 Beneficios de CME Group Diversidad de Productos Futuros, Opciones & Swaps Compensados Complejos de Productos Diversificados Usos Flexibles Estrategias de Administración de Riesgo Estrategias Especulativas Fundamentos para contratos de contado Iniciar y ajustar posiciones con base en la exposición al riesgo deseada Liquidez & Transparencia Descubrimiento de Precio eficiente y equitativo Regulación e integridad financiera Monitoreo interno y externo CME Clearing Proceso de compensación garantiza todas las transacciones en CME Group Plataformas de operación a elección del cliente & compensación CME Globex Electrónico Piso de Operación A Viva Voz CME Clearport Interfaz de compensación OTC

33 Centro de Educación

34 CME GROUP: Forecast for the 2012 USDA Acreage Report WHEN: Tuesday, June 26, :00 p.m. CT WHERE: CME Group Auditorium 20 S. Wacker Drive Chicago, IL Attend Online or In-Person Register here The current conditions in agricultural commodities have created much volatility in the grain markets. What has been the impact on planted acres? In anticipation of the June 29, 2012 USDA Acreage report, please join us in a discussion of the summer's grain and oilseed prospects, and the potential effects of seasonal weather conditions. The program will also include a discussion of short term Agricultural options, including Weekly Grain Options options and the recently announced Short-Dated New Crop option, which provide opportunities to trade on high impact events-such as USDA reports and weather forecasts 34

35 CME GROUP: Forecast for the 2012 USDA Acreage Report Topics include: Perspectives on acreage 2012 yield potential and price outlook Current weather trends Capitalizing on opportunities with Short-Dated New Crop options and Weekly Grain options Speakers: Darin Newsom, Senior Analyst Telvent DTN Kyle Tapley, Senior Agricultural Meteorologist MDA EarthSat Weather (CropCAST) Ankita Roy, Manager CME Group Agricultural Products Register here Learn more about Short-Dated New Crop options Learn more about Weekly Agricultural options 35

36 Resources Registrar s Reports: Delivery Reports: List of approved delivery facilities: Suggested Reading: Economics of Futures Trading for Commercial and Personal Profit (Hieronymus, 1977) 7.asp 36

37 Contacto e Información Fred Seamon Senior Director, Commodity Research and Product Development Tel: +1 (312) Fred.Seamon@cmegroup.com Brenda Tucker Executive Director, CD&S Commercials / Corporations Tel: +1 (312) Brenda.Tucker@cmegroup.com Richard Jelinek Director, Market Education & Development Tel: +1 (312) richard.jelinek@cmegroup.com Gerardo Luna Melo Director, International Products & Services (Latin America) Tel: +1 (312) Gerardo.LunaMelo@cmegroup.com

38 Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, and involves the risk of loss. Futures are a leveraged investment, and because only a percentage of a contract s value is required to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money deposited for a futures position. Therefore, traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affecting their lifestyles. And only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because they cannot expect to profit on every trade. The Globe Logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and Globex are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and the Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange, and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. CME Group is a trademark of CME Group Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. The information within this presentation has been compiled by CME Group for general purposes only. CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. Although every attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information within this presentation, CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. Additionally, all examples in this presentation are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and are superseded by official CME, CBOT, NYMEX and CME Group rules. Current rules should be consulted in all cases concerning contract specifications.

39 CBOT Rough Rice Futures XTRA Slides Fred Seamon Associate Director Commodity Research and Product Development

40 Average Daily Volume Rough Rice Volume 5,000 CBOT Rough Rice 20-Day Moving Average Volume 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,

41 Average Daily Open Interest Rough Rice Open Interest 30,000 CBOT Rough Rice 20-Day Moving Average Open Interest 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,

42 $ per Hundredweight America s Rice Prices Correlated with CBOT Rice Nearby Rough Rice Futures and FOB NOLA Spot Prices $25.00 Nearby Futures FOB NOLA $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $

43 CBOT Rough Rice Delivery Territory 43

44 1,000 Metric Tons Rough Rice Exports Have Become Increasingly Important to the US 2,500 U.S. Rough Rice Exports 2,000 1,500 1,

45 U.S. Rice Export Destinations U.S. Rice Exports - Top 10 Destinations Mexico Japan Haiti Turkey Venezuela Canada Iraq Honduras Saudi Arabia Nicaragua

46 U.S. Grain Export Routes Wheat Corn Soybean Sorghum Rice 46

47 Rice Futures Contract Terms U.S. # 2 2,000 cwt contract Not less than 65% mill yield Not less than 48% head rice No Heat; No Stain; 75 Lightly Discolored Allowed in 500-gram Sample Load-out charge max cent/cwt Storage charge max. 34/100 cent/cwt/day (Proposed 42/100s starting 9/28) January, March, May, July, September & November Expirations Price Example is $ per cwt. Codes ZR Globes; RR - Pit

48 Delivery Procedures Key Dates First Position day Two business days prior to first delivery day of the current month contract. If a long wishes not to risk taking delivery, they need to close all of their positions prior to the close on this day. First Notice day One business day prior to first delivery day of the current month contract. First Delivery day The first business day of the current month contract. 48

49 Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, and involves the risk of loss. Futures are a leveraged investment, and because only a percentage of a contract s value is required to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money deposited for a futures position. Therefore, traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affecting their lifestyles. And only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because they cannot expect to profit on every trade. The Globe Logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and Globex are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and the Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange, and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. CME Group is a trademark of CME Group Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. The information within this presentation has been compiled by CME Group for general purposes only. CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. Although every attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information within this presentation, CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. Additionally, all examples in this presentation are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and are superseded by official CME, CBOT, NYMEX nd CME Group rules. Current rules should be consulted in all cases concerning contract specifications. 49