Understanding social protest in Costa Rica,

Transcripción

1 Understanding social protest in Costa Rica, State of the Nation Program Steffan Gómez-Campos December 6, 2016 University of Twente Netherlands

2 Research Center tracking development Equity and social integration Sustainable human development Harmony with nature Economic stability and opportunities Strengthening democracy

3 To know the Costa Rica we have To think the Costa Rica we wish A mirror for a better understanding of ourselves To promote human development

4 Research cluster

5 independent tool, in citizens hands, in order to asses human development

6 Development > growth Human development

7 Information: public asset Academic research for social deliberation

8 Dialogue Public policy

9 Quality control on research Board workshop Research network Research period Report chapters Final papers (inputs) Draft workshops Chapter workshops Final edition Dissemination

10 Data on social mobilization Database since January 1992 (25 years) Daily records based on three newspapers (paper) Coding manual

11 Research questions already addressed Who, when, how and against what? What are the main trends? Is it possible to explain the peaks? What is triggering the protests? *

12 The database 21 variables Date Actor / sub-actor Alliance Public / private entity Demand / sub-demand Scope Repertoire of contention (set of tools)

13 Public workers and citizenship the most active Mobilized actors under comparative perspective, by percentage Public workers 38,8 45,4 Citizenship 17,3 27,6 University and high school 5,0 7,5 Businessmen Agricultural producers Informal workers 3,5 5,4 4,1 2,5 7,1 7,1 Environmental groups Pro housing groups 2,0 1,9 2,6 4,1 January December

14 Five distinct episodes of conflict Collective actions by month, january march CA Average Peak

15 Public workers use more institutional channels for their demands Collective actions flows by actors and repertoires Actors Repertoires of mobilization

16 Citizenship expressed in the streets Collective actions flows by actors and repertoires Actors Repertoires of mobilization

17 Social protests go down on summer and vacations Seasonality on social protests ,5E+08 1,0E+08 5,0E+07 Seasonality factor 0,0E+00-5,0E+07 Feb Mar May Jun Ago Sep Nov Dic -1,0E+08-1,5E+08-2,0E+08

18 Collective actions trend, by actor Trend changes with the new President in May 2014 Increasing trend Decreasing trend Sector Public público workers Ciudadania Citizenship Total de CA acciones colectivas

19 New government faced less conflicts than expected Amount of collective actions and forecast. January 2013 to March President Chinchilla President Solis Feb Mar May Jun Ago Sep Nov Dic Feb Mar May Jun Ago Sep Nov Dic Feb Mar May Jun Ago Sep Nov Dic Feb Mar May Jun Ago Sep Nov Dic Feb Mar Pronóstico Forecast Real Collective actions

20 Social protest is sensible to economic changes Relationship between economic cycles and collective actions 1,2 0,06 0,8 0,04 Collective actions 0,4 0,0-0,4-0,8 0,02 0,00-0,02-0,04-1,2-0,06 ene-95 jun-95 nov-95 abr-96 sept-96 feb-97 jul-97 dic-97 may-98 oct-98 mar-99 ago-99 ene-00 jun-00 nov-00 abr-01 sept-01 feb-02 jul-02 dic-02 may-03 oct-03 mar-04 ago-04 ene-05 jun-05 nov-05 abr-06 sept-06 feb-07 jul-07 dic-07 may-08 oct-08 mar-09 ago-09 ene-10 jun-10 nov-10 abr-11 sept-11 Monthly economic index (MEI) Empleados Public workers públicosa/ IMAEb/ MEI

21 Research questions to be addressed with Big Data How can we enrich social protest records with social media (Facebook/Twitter)? Is there a way to track it in real time? Think of in advance notification systems? Machine learning for recognition?

22 More information EstadoNacion