EVOLUTION AND TRENDS AMONG COMPUTER SCIENCE AND COMPUTER ENGINEERING PROFESSIONALS IN MEXICO (1971-2005)

EVOLUTION AND TRENDS AMONG COMPUTER SCIENCE AND COMPUTER ENGINEERING PROFESSIONALS IN MEXICO (1971-2005) Sergio Ellerbracke Román 1, Elba Lomelí Mijes 2 Abstract A historical/statistical review shows the total number of bachelor, master and doctoral programs in Computer Science and Computer Engineering In Mexico as reflected in the statistical reports of the National Association of Universities and Institutions of Higher Education (ANUIES) between the years 1971 and 2001. In Mexico, there is a great problem with the name of Computer Science and Computer Engineering Education Programs with at least eighty-four different names. For this reason, it was necessary to classify the programs in four profiles, according to the National Association of Institutions of Education in Computation (ANIEI). These profiles reflect the number of Mexican professionals per state and principle cities. An ANIEI rating of successful conclusions has been included for bachelor programs. Using these ratings, a prognosis is made for successful termination of studies for the entire country, including states and principle cities, until the year 2005. This leads the writers of the article to an analysis regarding the favorable regions for software development. Finally, a review of curriculum content for Computer Science and Computer Engineering Education in Mexico is made, along with the level of competencies achieved. Index Terms Computer Science Education, Mexico, ANUIES, ANIEI, software clusters. COMPUTER SCIENCE AND COMPUTER ENGIN EERING EDUCATION IN M EXICO It s possible to define Software Industry as an industry of strong human capital, whose main input is a great amount of professionals. Unlike factories of other industries, a software factory seems more like a central bank office. The IDC data in 2001[1] accounted for 7.8 million software developers worldwide, with 64% of them concentrated in only ten countries: The U.S., China, India, Russia, Japan, Canada, Germany, France, the U.K., and Italy. The same source predicts that the number will reach 13.3 million by the year 2006. Six of these countries are also between the twelve most populated of the world, and only Canada does not appear among the twenty-two most populated countries. Canada s case illustrates another key characteris tic of software industry: migration. Canada imports thousands of software developers. Following to reference [2], hundreds of thousands of Indian software developers work in the U.S. Mexico is the eleventh mo st populated country in the world, and the study of a bachelor s degree in Computer or Information Technology has become a very popular choice. Currently, only law has more students. The Program for the Development of the Software Industry (ProSoft), the National Development Plan (PND), and the many state software development programs have contributed to this popularity. More pragmatically, professionals in these areas earn more than most other professionals and there is greater job availability. TABLE I SUCCESSFUL ENDINGS Year Bachelor Master Doctorate Technical 1971 6 1972 10 1973 50 1974 57 1975 38 1976 65 1977 132 1978 121 1979 156 17 1980 354 25 1981 513 38 1982 749 78 1983 923 75 1984 862 68 1985 1245 129 1986 1589 152 1987 1698 104 1988 2340 126 1989 3518 105 1990 3823 88 1991 5004 86 1992 6665 161 1993 8456 147 1994 9036 168 1995 10444 245 1996 11899 263 1997 12848 492 1 1998 13861 436 3 328 1999 13828 628 4 522 2000 15792 719 16 865 2001 18040 844 37 1869 2002* 19317 2003* 21400 2004* 23456 2005* 25713 Since Mexico has many students, large-scale software development seems feasible. Mexico will need to make 1 Sergio Ellerbracke Román, Universidad del Valle de Atemajac, Departamento de Sistemas y Computación, sergio.ellerbracke@univa.mx 2 Elba Lomelí Mijes, Universidad de Guadalajara, Departamento de Geografía y Ordenación Territorial, elba.lomeli@univa.mx elbalomeli@hotmail.com F4C-13

Software Clusters supported by statistics of the number and locations of these professionals. Fortunately, the National Association of Universities and Institutions of Higher Education (ANUIES) publishes annually detailed national statistics of bachelor and postgraduate education in Mexico, by program, by university, and by state. Yearly ANUIES reports have been published for the years between 1971 and 2001[3]-[45]. Table I shows the number of new professionals per year in Mexico. Data of years 2002-2005 are taken from our predictions. The writers of the article are estimated Rates for Successful Endings (RSE) for each one of the National Association of Institutions of Education in Computation (ANIEI) bachelor profiles[46]: Informatics (LI=55.0%), Computer Systems Engineering (ISC=43.5%), Computer Engineering (IC= 57.2%) and Computer Sciences (LCC=51.6%). Following ANUIES methodology [47], RSE shows how many students graduate in comparison with students of new entrances. RSE is calculated dividing the entrance students of one year, with the graduated students four years after. The name of this group is apparent cohort. According to ANUIES [47], Mexican RSE is growing. Percentages shown above correspond with cohort 1997-2001. With these RSE and entrance students of 1998 to 2001, the writers of the article are calculating a prognosis for years 2002 to 2005. The ANUIES statistical reports are published with an eight month delay so data related to 2002 is available in August of 2003. In qualitative perspective, Mexican programs had made some advances. First, they established the curricular content of ANIEI profiles [46]. With these contents, it is possible for programs and professionals to obtain a certification. Programs by means of Computer National Council of Certification (CONAIC) and professionals can apply an exam of the Evaluation National Center (CENEVAL). Even more, it has been perceived a growing number of people who have certified, mainly by Microsoft, Sun and Cisco. From Table I, it is possible to reach the conclusion that there is sustainable growth of bachelors of Computer Science and Computer Engineering in Mexico (with 144,212 up to 2001) and an estimated 90,000 more between 2002 and 2005. However, the number of Master Degrees up to 2001 is drastically lower (5,194) and there is an almost non-existent number of Doctorates. Table II shows the distribution of bachelors per state. Eight Mexican states will graduate more than ten thousand bachelors, accumulating 62% of total graduates. It s important to observe that five of these states are located in the Northeast and Gulf regions of Mexico. We are ready to show the most important level for software development: cities. Table III shows all the cities with more than two thousand bachelors. Four observations are needed regarding Table III. First, some cities include some surrounding municipalities. TABLE II BACHELOR STATE S DISTRIBUTION AND ANIEI PROFILES (1971-2005) State IC ISC LI LCC Total Distrito Federal 12386 5111 12721 7427 37645 Nuevo Leon 1992 4470 14515 2794 23771 México 5272 3705 9677 2606 21260 Tamaulipas 778 7098 7050 14926 Veracruz 164 4081 9900 14 14159 Jalisco 3377 2682 6697 12756 Coahuila 122 7062 3469 10 10663 Puebla 287 3163 3470 3707 10627 Chihuahua 9 3699 4404 8112 Baja California 1788 1620 3112 717 7237 Sinaloa 2691 4413 7104 Sonora 34 1919 3930 152 6035 Guanajuato 693 1891 2239 96 4919 Tabasco 578 1546 2637 4761 Guerrero 452 1865 2187 4504 Oaxaca 455 460 3246 4161 Chiapas 1539 2398 19 3956 Michoacan 1891 2047 3938 Hidalgo 15 2383 1235 3633 Morelos 231 728 2243 12 3214 Durango 846 2308 3154 Queretaro 92 1684 1299 3075 San Luis Potosi 323 1183 1485 2991 Yucatan 223 1681 693 302 2899 Aguascalientes 633 1465 96 2194 Nayarit 203 647 629 708 2187 Campeche 291 264 1548 26 2129 Tlaxcala 797 149 1088 2034 Colima 141 673 1157 1971 Zacatecas 61 1177 620 1858 Quintana Roo 56 1068 1124 Baja California Sur 80 670 351 1101 Total 30844 69267 115301 18686 234098 TABLE III MAIN BACHELOR CITIES DISTRIBUTION AND ANIEI PROFILES (1971-2005) City IC ISC LI LCC Total 2001 Mexico City 15831 7725 21303 10033 54892 3701 Monterrey 1992 4287 14156 2794 23229 1111 Guadalajara 3055 2212 5266 10533 703 Puebla 270 2331 2241 3707 8549 739 Tampico 2960 2161 5121 507 Chihuahua 9 1527 3094 4630 423 Mexicali 1212 1368 1095 264 3939 208 Torreon 70 2463 1315 3848 328 Ciudad Victoria 393 253 2762 3408 168 Pachuca 15 2267 1097 3379 429 Xalapa 355 2880 3235 214 Saltillo 8 1820 1297 10 3135 198 Culiacan 568 2380 2948 214 Tuxtla Gutierrez 1352 1408 19 2779 410 Durango 843 1919 2762 236 Toluca 1077 1047 627 2751 183 Orizaba 231 2499 2730 240 Monclova 44 2303 298 2645 144 Queretaro 92 1426 1122 2640 169 Merida 223 1681 382 302 2588 174 Veracruz 164 1865 439 8 2476 208 Reynosa 355 1265 818 2438 240 Leon 451 943 1006 2400 229 Aguascalientes 633 1465 96 2194 267 Tepic 203 647 629 708 2187 244 Tijuana 377 170 1502 133 2182 172 Villahermosa 14 725 1358 2097 253 Hermosillo 567 1297 152 2016 142 F4C-14

90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 LI ISC IC LCC 20000 10000 0 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 FIGURE 1 COMPUTER SCIENCE AND COMPUTER ENGINEERING STUDENTS IN MEXICO, BY ANIEI P ROFILES, 1977-2001 Mexico City, for example, includes all delegations of Distrito Federal, in addition to twelve municipalities of Mexico State. Other cities that are reported in this way are Monterrey, Guadalajara, Puebla, Tampico, Toluca and Orizaba. Second, professionals of the thirteen main cities represent 56% of the total for the complete country. However, by 2005, the authors expect more than one thousand professionals in fifty cities of Mexico. Third, the distance between cities is important for the creation of industrial software clusters. Monterrey can make a cluster hit in Saltillo (totaling 26364 professionals). Other possible clusters are Puebla-Apizaco-Tlaxcala (10547), Queretaro-Celaya-San Juan del Rio (4623), Torreon-Gomez Palacio-Lerdo (4151), Villahermosa-Cunduacan (4032), Toluca-Tianguistenco-Tenanco (3305), Orizaba-Nogales- Cordoba (3250), Cuernavaca-Zacatepec (3044), Leon- Guanajuato-Lagos de Moreno-San Francisco del Rincon- Silao (2694), Ciudad Obregon-Navojoa (2348), Los Mochis - Guasave (2041). Finally, Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterrey receive many professionals from other cities. This kind of internal migration enforces their ability to form a cluster. It is perhaps of greater importance to consider the volume of migration to the United States. According to reference [2], a maximum of ten thousand graduates from our programs are working in this country. In order to analyze preferences and areas of concentration for the four Mexican ANIEI profiles, we must briefly describe these profiles [46]: 1. A Bachelor s Degree in Informatics (Licenciatura en Informática or LI): a professional capable of detecting and satisfying organizational needs with regard to the use of information. This person is competent in getting and organizing data and process, for the purpose of creating, administering and maintaining services and technology systems for information 2. A Degree in Computer Systems Engineering (Ingeniería en Sistemas Computacionales or ISC): a professional capable of analyzing environments and problems that can be solved using computer systems. This engineer is able to offer complete solutions, resulting in the creation, adaptation, integration or selection of computational products. 3. A Degree in Computer Engineering (Ingeniería en Computación or IC): Engineering for the purpose of constructing, configuring, evaluating and selecting environments for computer services and telecommunications 4. Computer Sciences Bachelor (Licenciatura en Ciencias de la Computacion LCC): A professional dedicated to the study and improvement of computer science. A bachelor capable of creating innovative computer environments and applications. F4C-15

Briefly, LCC is the mathematics of the group (probably classified in the U.S. as mathematical degrees by Hill [48]), ICs are specialists in network, telecommunications, firmware and base software (in the U.S. classified as Electrical Engineering degrees), ISCs are software specialists (Computer Science Engineers) and LIs are focused on business software and the organization of computer centers (not considered as a Science or Engineering Degree in U.S.). TABLE IV CURRICULAR CONTENTS OF FIFTY-SEVEN PROGRAMS OF COMPUTER SCIENCE AND COMPUTER ENGINEERING IN MEXICO, BY ANIEI P ROFILE IC ISC LI LCC Mathematics 23.8% 22.6% 13.7% 33.1% Basic Mathematics 14.2% 9.0% 5.8% 16.5% Applied Mathematics 6.4% 10.1% 6.8% 10.6% Discrete Mathematics 1.6% 1.8% 0.9% 3.5% Mathematical Theory of 1.6% 1.7% 0.2% 2.5% Computation Programming and Software 13.9% 21.3% 21.1% 22.9% Engineering Programming 9.1% 12.0% 10.8% 13.0% Languages Programming 2.5% 1.4% 3.0% 4.6% Software Engineering 2.3% 7.3% 7.1% 5.3% Software Industry 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Information Systems 4.4% 7.4% 7.0% 5.5% Databases 2.5% 4.8% 3.9% 2.0% Information Recovery 0.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.5% Information Systems 1.6% 1.4% 2.5% 3.0% Computer Architecture 22.0% 11.1% 4.0% 8.9% Physic 10.3% 4.0% 0.6% 2.5% Digital Systems 5.9% 1.5% 0.4% 2.6% Computer Configurations 3.9% 3.8% 2.2% 2.5% Installations and Equipments 2.0% 1.9% 0.8% 1.3% Networks 5.6% 6.1% 4.9% 2.9% Data Communication and Data 3.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% Transmission Models 1.5% 3.1% 2.2% 0.8% Protocols 0.5% 1.2% 1.0% 0.5% Network Intercommunication 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 1.1% Security 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Internet 0.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.0% Systems Software 5.6% 7.6% 4.4% 3.2% Translators and Compilers 3.1% 2.7% 1.5% 1.1% Operating Systems 2.5% 4.8% 2.7% 1.5% Utilities 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% Social Environment 7.8% 8.4% 25.6% 10.8% Organizations 5.1% 5.6% 14.3% 6.6% Computer Center 0.8% 2.3% 7.3% 1.8% Ethic and Law 1.9% 0.5% 4.0% 2.5% Human-Machine 4.8% 3.1% 2.8% 5.1% Communication Computer Graphics 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 1.0% Artificial Intelligence 3.0% 2.0% 1.9% 3.6% Human-Machine Interfaces 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% Update Topic 0.6% 0.9% 1.6% 0.3% Last project 1.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.8% Other courses 10.4% 9.7% 14.4% 6.6% It is now possible to compare Mexican distribution and trends between profiles. Figure 1 shows all ANIEI profiles are historical incremental, although IC shows a little decrease in 2001. In every period from 1977 to 2001, LI was the most wide-reaching program and LCC the least. Until 1988, IC was the second largest program, but from 1989 to 2001, ISC shows an impressive increase. In fact, in recent years, ISC shows an exponential increase. If this trend continues, ISC will be the most extensive profile. Figure 2 shows the total number of programs of Computer Science and Computer Engineering in Mexico. Obviously, not all programs have the same importance, in terms of students and graduates. The writers of the article have selected programs with more than five hundred graduate (eighty-three programs), and have searched their curricula maps. These programs are responsible for 65% of all Mexican graduates of Mexico. 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 F4C-16 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 LCC IC ISC LI FIGURE 2 NUMBER OF PROGRAMS OF COMPUTER SCIENCE AND COMPUTER ENGINEERING IN MEXICO (1977-2001) Of these programs, the writers have found fifty-seven curricula maps on the Internet, and Table IV shows the average curricula contents of each ANIEI profile, classified by standard curricula areas of ANIEI [46]. It is important to comment that profiles with more students and graduates are also profiles with more strength in software development. Areas of Programming and Software Engineering, and Information Systems, total 28.7% in ISC and 28.1% in LI. As programs have an average of fifty-two courses, they represent an average of fifteen courses in these areas. Of course, many other courses are important for some kinds of software, and certainly, all courses must have some intention. Finally, a technical report of our research is available in Internet: www.software.net.mx, in academy section [49]. REFERENCES Roberts, P. IDC: Asia to lead in developers by 2005. February 20 th, 2003, Available in: www.infoworld.com/article/03/02/20/ HNdevelopers_1.html, at April 27 th, 2003. Ellerbracke, S., Lomeli, E. Analisis de la migracion de profesionistas de Informatica y Computacion hacia Estados Unidos mediante la visa

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