Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 VALERIA AZCONEGUI, VP SENIOR ANALYST FERNANDO ALBANO, AVP ANALYST OCTUBRE 2015
Agenda 1. Perspectiva Del Sistema Financiero 2. Entorno Operativo 3. Calidad De Activos y Capitalización 4. Rentabilidad y Eficiencia 5. Fondeo y Liquidez 6. Soporte del Gobierno Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 2
1 Perspectiva Del Sistema Financiero Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 3
Perspectiva Negativa del Sistema Financiero 2015-2016 Entorno Operativo Negativa Calidad de Activos y Capital Negativa Rentabilidad y Eficiencia Negativa Fondeo y Liquidez Estable Soporte del Gobierno Negativa Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 4
2 Entorno Operativo Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 5
Menor Nivel de Actividad y Elevada Inflación Limitan las Oportunidades de Negocios de los Bancos Crecimiento PBI (eje izquierdo) Inflación Congreso (eje derecho) 10% 38.5% 40.0% 8% 8.4% 35.0% 6% 28.3% 28.0% 30.0% 30.0% 4% 22.6% 25.3% 2.9% 25.0% 2% 0.8% 0.5% 1.0% 20.0% 0% 15.0% -2% -1.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 10.0% Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 6
Mar-2013 Apr-2013 May-2013 Jun-2013 Jul-2013 Aug-2013 Sep-2013 Oct-2013 Nov-2013 Dec-2013 Jan-2014 Feb-2014 Mar-2014 Apr-2014 May-2014 Jun-2014 Jul-2014 Aug-2014 Sep-2014 Oct-2014 Nov-2014 Dec-2014 Jan-2015 Feb-2015 Mar-2015 Apr-2015 May-2015 Jun-2015 Jul-2015 Aug-2015 Sep-2015 Débil Posición Externa Reservas Internacionales (eje derecho) Tipo de Cambio Oficial (eje izquierdo) Tipo de Cambio Implícito (eje izquierdo) $16.00 43 $14.00 41 39 $12.00 37 $10.00 35 33 $8.00 31 $6.00 29 27 $4.00 25 Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 7
3 Calidad de Activos y Capitalización Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 8
ARS miles de millones Prestamos en mora / Total de Préstamos Cartera en Mora Continúa Creciendo Nominalmente 16.00 Cartera en mora - eje izquierdo Ratio de Morosidad - Eje derecho 1.90% 14.00 1.80% 12.00 1.70% 10.00 1.60% 8.00 6.00 1.50% 4.00 1.40% 2.00 1.30% - Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 1.20% Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 9
Políticas de Originación de Préstamos Prudentes Respaldan Ratios de Cartera Irregular 4.5% Mora Préstamos Corporativos Mora Préstamos Consumo 4.0% 3.5% 2.8% 2.6% 3.0% 2.9% 3.0% 2.2% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jun-15 Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 10
Leve Recuperación del Crecimiento de Préstamos desde el 2T2015 16% Crecimiento trimestral de la cartera de préstamos Inflación Trimestral 14% 12% 13.6% 10% 8% 9.0% 7.3% 9.3% 6.8% 7.7% 8.0% 7.1% 7.6% 6% 4.8% 5.7% 5.6% 4.8% 4.5% 5.3% 4% 2.6% 2% 0% Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 11
Líneas de Consumo y Crédito de Inversion Productiva Lideran el Crecimiento Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 12
Cartera de Préstamos Balanceada Préstamos Hipotecarios 3% Préstamos al Sector Público 8% Préstamos al Sector Financiero 2% Préstamos Corporativos 50% Préstamos de Consumo 37% Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 13
Buen Nivel de Previsionamiento Permite Absorber Posibles Pérdidas 180% 175% Previsiones / Cartera Irregular 176.1% 170% 165% 160% 155% 150% 145% 147.7% 144.4% 150.5% 140% 141.6% 140.8% 135% 130% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jun-15 Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 14
El Tangible Common Equity de los Bancos Argentinos Compara Favorablemente con los Bancos de la Región 17% Argentina Brasil Chile México Perú 15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 15
4 Rentabilidad y Eficiencia Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 16
Rentabilidad Modesta en Términos Reales 100% Diferencia Retorno Sobre Capital Propio IPC - Índice Congreso 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 17
Efecto de las Líneas de Crédito de Inversión Productiva Tasas máximas continuarán restringiendo el margen financiero 200,000 LCIP - Cuota Semestral (ARS M - Eje Izquierdo) LCIP - Tasa Activa Máxima por Etapa (Eje Derecho) LCIP - Stock de Préstamos (ARS M - Eje Izquierdo) 20% 19% 150,000 18% 100,000 17% 16% 50,000 15% 0 I 2012 I 2013 II 2013 I 2014 II 2014 I 2015 II 2015 14% Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 18
Costo de Fondeo Seguirá Siendo Negativo en Términos Reales Tasas de interés mínimas aplican a depósitos a plazo fijo inferiores a ARS 1M Cajas de Ahorro (Costo Promedio = 0.2%) 22% Plazos Fijos por Montos Inferiores a ARS 1M (Obtienen Tasa Mínima) 20% Cuentas Corrientes (Sin Costo) 30% Plazos Fijos por Montos Superiores a ARS 1M (Tasa no Regulada) 28% Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 19
% de los Ingresos Mayor Proporción de Ingresos por Tenencia Como consecuencia de una mayor exposición a Letras del Banco Central. Ingreso por Préstamos Ingreso por Comisiones Ingreso por Tenencia Otros Ingresos 100% 6% 12% 11% 90% 22% 20% 80% 22% 19% 36% 70% 18% 25% 60% 50% 33% 31% 29% 27% 26% 40% 30% 20% 38% 43% 40% 37% 35% 10% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 May-15 Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 20
Cargo por Incobrabilidad El costo de crédito se ha mantenido estable en términos nominales, pero disminuyó como proporción del total de préstamos. 6,000 Cargos Por Incobrabilidad (ARS Millones - Eje Izquierdo) Cargos Por Incobrabilidad / Préstamos Totales (Eje Derecho) 1.1% 5,000 4,000 0.9% 3,000 2,000 0.7% 1,000 0 1H2011 2H2011 1H2012 2H2012 1H2013 2H2013 1H2014 2H2014 Jan-May 2015 0.5% Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 21
Luego de una Leve Mejora, Proyectamos un Deterioro en el Nivel de Eficiencia 90,000 Gastos Operativos (ARS Millones - Eje Izquierdo) Costo / Ingreso (Eje Derecho) 58.0% 80,000 55.8% 55.9% 56.0% 70,000 54.0% 60,000 52.7% 52.0% 50,000 50.0% 40,000 30,000 48.6% 46.6% 47.5% 48.0% 46.0% 20,000 44.0% 10,000 42.0% 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jan-May 2015 40.0% Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 22
5 Fondeo y Liquidez Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 23
ARS Millones Estructura de Depósitos El crecimiento de los depósitos del sector privado seguirá el ritmo de la inflación 1,200,000 Depósitos del Sector Público Cuentas Corrientes Cajas de Ahorro Plazos Fijos Otros 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 May 2015 Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 24
% del Activo Total Exposición a Banco Central Los bancos mantendrán una alta exposición a Letras del Banco Central. 25% Sistema Bancos Públicos Bancos Privados Nacionales Bancos Privados Extranjeros 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 25
6 Soporte del Gobierno Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 26
Soporte del Gobierno - La capacidad del gobierno de proveer soporte proviene de su calificación de Caa1. - Intervención creciente en el sistema bancario incrementa la correlación existente entre los riesgos que afectan al soberano y al sistema bancario. - Los bancos en Argentina no se benefician de subas de calificación como consecuencia de nuestros supuestos de soporte del gobierno. - Como parte del G-20, Argentina está comprometido a implementar un régimen de bail-in. Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 27
Valeria Azconegui VP-Senior Analyst Buenos Aires +54 (11) 5129-2611 valeria.azconegui@moodys.com Daniel Marchetto Associate Analyst Buenos Aires +54 (11) 5129-2625 daniel.marchetto@moodys.com Fernando Albano AVP-Analyst Buenos Aires +54 (11) 5129-2624 fernando.albano@moodys.com Aaron Freedman Associate Managing Director Mexico City +52-55-1253-5713 aaron.freedman@moodys.com Christian Pereira Associate Analyst Buenos Aires +54 (11) 5129-2634 christian.pereira@moodys.com Celina Vansetti-Hutchins Managing Director New York +1-212 553-4845 celina.vansetti@moodys.com Sistema Financiero: Perspectivas y Desafíos para el 2016 28
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