Lack of information and Discrepancies for monitoring Targets 3 and 16 of the Millenium Development Goals:

Transcripción

1 Regional Seminar Saisical and Insiuional Challenges for monioring of Millennium Developmen Goals in Lain America and Caribbean counries Lack of informaion and Discrepancies for monioring Targes 3 and 16 of he Millenium Developmen Goals: Educaion and Unemploymen rae of young people Erneso Espíndola A. Social Developmen Division - ECLAC Bogoá, Colombia, November 27-28, 2007

2 Second Millenium Developmen Goal: Achieve Universal primary educaion Targe 3: Ensure ha by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able o complee a full course of primary schooling. Indicaors for monioring progress: (6) Ne enrolmen raio in primary educaion (7) Proporion of pupils saring grade 1 who reach grade 5 (permanence rae o grade 5) 1 (8) Lieracy rae of year-olds 1 Alernaively, compleion rae for primary schooling migh be used (according o CINE 1997 classificaion). See hp:// I should be noed ha several versions of permanence rae have been suggesed (up o grades 4, 5, and las grade of primary schooling, usually grade 6). Desafíos esadísicos e insiucionales para el monioreo de los Objeivos de Desarrollo del Milenio en los países de América Laina y el Caribe

3 Eigh Goal of he Millenium Developmen Goal: Develop a Global parnership for developmen Targe 16: In cooperaion wih developing counries, develop and implemen sraegies for decen and producive work for youh 1 Indicaors for monioring progress: (45a) Unemploymen rae of young people aged years. Toal (45b) Unemploymen rae of young people aged years. Men (45c) Unemploymen rae of young people aged years. Women 1 The arge hasn ye been defined in a quaniaive way. Desafíos esadísicos e insiucionales para el monioreo de los Objeivos de Desarrollo del Milenio en los países de América Laina y el Caribe

4 (6) Ne enrolmen raio in primary educaion Formula: NER h E h, a = Ph, a 100 Where: NER = Ne enrolmen rae in educaion level h in he school year h E, = Populaion enrolmen in he age group a in educaion level h in he school year h a P, = Populaion in age group a o which educaion level h officially correspond in school year h a Availabiliy (20 year period): Lain America Caribbean Naional Repors Unied Naions 3 daa or more daa daa 2 2 No daa daa or more daa daa 2 2 No daa 0 0 No daa (naional repors): Anguila, Anigua and Barbuda, Neherland Anilles, Bahamas, Barbados, Dominica, Grenada, Briish Virgen Islands, Monserra, Puero Rico, Sain Vicen and he Grenadines, Sain Lucia, S. Kis & Nevis, and Trinidad and Tobago. Belice 2001 Belice 2004 Boliv ia 2001 Boliv ia 2002 Boliv ia 2003 Boliv ia 2004 Brasil 2004 Colombia 2000 Cosa Rica 1992 Cuba 1992 Cuba 2000 Cuba 2001 Cuba 2002 Cuba 2003 Cuba 2005 Ecuador 2000 Ecuador 2004 El Salv ador 2003 Guaemala 2001 Guaemala 2005 Honduras 1992 Honduras 2002 Jamaica 1992 Jamaica 2000 Jamaica 2001 Jamaica 2002 México 2001 México 2004 Nicaragua 2002 Panamá 2001 Panamá 2004 Paraguay 1992 Paraguay 2000 Perú 2003 República Dominicana 2000 República Dominicana 2001 República Dominicana 2002 República Dominicana 2003 Suriname 2002 Suriname 2003 Suriname 2004 Venezuela 1992 Venezuela 2000 Venezuela 2001 Venezuela Diferencia en punos porcenuales One daa: Argenina and Uruguay. Figures wih difference under 0.5: 5 of 45 UN > counry Desafíos esadísicos e insiucionales para el monioreo de los Objeivos de Desarrollo del Milenio en los países de América Laina y el Caribe UN < counry

5 (6) Ne enrolmen raio in primary educaion Daa Sources: Adminisraive Regisries (Educaion minisries/secrearies) Populaion and Housing Censuses Census Projecions; esimaion from oher sources Main problems and facors explaining he differences 1. Time of he school year when informaion is colleced. 2. Incenive o over-reporing in subsidized -educaional supplyeducaional sysems 3. Double accouning in enrolmen 4. Timeliness of informaion: Incomplee reporing and coverage resricion. 5. Use of esimaions in he number of regisraions in cerain locaions 6. Use of differen componens (denominaors) as o build he ne rae of schooling 7. Asynchroniciy in adjusmen and repor of populaion projecions 8. Official duraion cycle for primary educaion vs. ICSED 1997 Desafíos esadísicos e insiucionales para el monioreo de los Objeivos de Desarrollo del Milenio en los países de América Laina y el Caribe

6 (7) Pupils enering grade 1 and reaching las grade of primary school 1 Formula: SR m Pg, i k = 1 g, i = k Eg 100 Where: P g, i = E + 1 g, i+ 1 R + 1 g, i+ 1 i = grade (1, 2, 3,, n) = year (1, 2, 3,, m) g = cohor of sudens. = Permanence rae of cohor g in grade i for year k of reference. = Toal number of pupils belonging o cohor g in he year of reference k. = Approved from he oal who will aend furher successive grades i in successive years. Availabiliy (20 year period): Lain America Caribbean Naional Repors 2 Unied Naions 2 3 daa or more daa daa 4 1 No daa daa or more 4 2 daa 4 1 daa 4 No daa 8 1 Permanence rae o grade 10 (grades 4, 5 or las grade -variable-). 2 Naional repors: Grade 5; UN: las grade. = Number of pupils repeaing grade i in he school year. Argenina 2004 Belice 2001 Brasil 2004 Cuba 2002 Cuba 2003 Cuba 2004 Cuba 2005 Ecuador 2003 El Salvador 1992 El Salvador 2003 Guaemala 2005 Guyana 2002 Jamaica 2001 Jamaica 2002 Panamá 2001 Panamá 2002 Panamá 2003 Panamá 2004 Panamá 2005 Paraguay 1992 Paraguay 2000 Paraguay 2001 UN > counry Diferencia en punos porcenuales No daa (Naional repors): Anguila, Anigua and Barbuda, Neherland Anilles, Bahamas, Barbados, Bolivia, Colombia, Cosa Rica, Dominica, Grenada, Honduras, Briish Virgen Islands, Mexico, Monserra, Nicaragua, Puero Rico, Dominican Republic, Sain Vicen and he Grenadines, Sain Lucia, S. Kis and Nevis, and Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela. One daa: Argenina, Brazil, Chile, Guayana and Uruguay. Desafíos esadísicos e insiucionales para el monioreo de los Objeivos de Desarrollo del Milenio en los países de América Laina y el Caribe UN < counry Indicaors are no comparable

7 (7) Pupils enering grade 1 and reaching las grade of primary school 1 Sources: Adminisraive Regisries (Educaion minisries/secrearies) Cohor Analysis mehod Esimaions underaken from oher sources Main problems and facors explaining he differences - Problems of validaion for monioring he Goal 1. Changes occurred in he indicaor (grade under evaluaion) and repor according wih he official duraion cycle for primary educaion vs CINE Need of deailed informaion by school grade and age of children 3. Lack of repor and resricion of coverage 4. Use of real or re-consiued cohor; non-compliance of assumpions Desafíos esadísicos e insiucionales para el monioreo de los Objeivos de Desarrollo del Milenio en los países de América Laina y el Caribe

8 (7.1) Compleion of primary school (as per ICSED 1997) Where: Formula: TC n Pe = P 100 TC n = compleion rae of level n; Pe = people in corresponding age range a leas x years of schooling (x equals years of schooling necessary o complee he level); P = populaion in corresponding age rane. Availabiliy (20 year period): Lain America Caribbean _Naional Repors Unied Naions 3 daa or more daa daa 0 1 No daa daa or more daa daa 0 5 No daa 17 5 Boliv ia 2002 Boliv ia 2003 Boliv ia 2004 Cosa Rica 1992 Cosa Rica 2000 Cosa Rica 2001 Cosa Rica 2002 Cosa Rica 2003 Guyana 2003 Honduras 1992 México 2001 México 2004 República Dominicana 2003 UN > counry Naional repors wih informaion: Bolivia, Cosa Rica, Guayana, Honduras, Mexico, and Dominican Republic. Diferencia en punos porcenuales 28% of daa repored by UN are oulying (63 ou of 222): conclusion > 100% Desafíos esadísicos e insiucionales para el monioreo de los Objeivos de Desarrollo del Milenio en los países de América Laina y el Caribe

9 (7.1) Compleion of primary school (as per ICSED 1997) Sources: Surveys for housing and similar Populaion Census Esimaion Main problems and facors explaining he differences - Is he mos suiable indicaor (valid) 1. Definiion of age group analyzed 2. The age group moniors performance of he educaional sysem in a very old period 3. Repor according o official duraion of primary educaion cycle vs. ICSED Sampling-based surveys; selecion of populaion sub-groups increase sampling error 5. Use of differen surveys or differen periods of survey for one individual year 6. Problems in use of coninued surveys covering differen school years 7. Alernaives for cohor comparison 8. Adjusmen of populaion frameworks of surveys Desafíos esadísicos e insiucionales para el monioreo de los Objeivos de Desarrollo del Milenio en los países de América Laina y el Caribe

10 (8) Lieracy rae of year-olds Formula: LIT = L P Where: LIT = Lieracy rae for year olds in year L = Populaion of year olds schooled in year P = Populaion year olds in year Availabiliy (20 year period): Lain America Repors Naional Unied Naions 3 daa or more daa daa 4 7 No daa 4 0 Caribbean 3 daa or more daa daa 4 7 No daa 4 0 No daa (Naional repors): Anguila, Neherland Anilles, Bahamas, Bolivia, Dominica, Ecuador, Grenada, Monserra, Nicaragua, Puero Rico, Sain Vincen & he Grenadines, Surinam, Trinidad & Tobago, and Uruguay. One daa: Anigua and Barbuda, Cuba, Guyana, Haii, Briish Virgin Islands, Peru S. Kis & Nevis, and Venezuela. Argenina Argenina Barbados ,6 Guaemala Guyana ,8 Honduras ,1 México ,1 México ,1 México Panamá ,31 Panamá ,04 Paraguay ,3 República Dominicana Venezuela Diferencia en punos porcenuales Maching daa: 6 ou of 14 Desafíos esadísicos e insiucionales para el monioreo de los Objeivos de Desarrollo del Milenio en los países de América Laina y el Caribe

11 (8) Lieracy rae of year-olds Sources: Populaion Census Surveys for housing or special surveys Ocassional esimaions Main problems and facors explaining he differences 1. Concep of lieracy addressed by each insrumen 2. Low informaion availabiliy during periods beween censuses 3. Alernaively, use of housing surveys; ime series no comparable 4. Several projecion mehods 5. Inroducion of Naional sudies by UNESCO wih a more comprehensive lieracy concep (Lieracy assessmen and monioring programme LAMP-) Desafíos esadísicos e insiucionales para el monioreo de los Objeivos de Desarrollo del Milenio en los países de América Laina y el Caribe

12 (45) Unemploymen rae of young people aged years. Toal/each sex Formula: TD = D PEA Where: TD D 24 = Unemploymen rae for young people aged year in ime 15 = Young people aged years who are unemployed (looking for a firs ime job or unemployed) in ime PEA = Economically acive populaion aged years in ime. EAP comprises boh employed and umemployed from age group ( D ). Availabiliy (20 year period): Lain America Caribbean Naional Repors 1 Unied Naions 1 3 daa or more 7 (1) 16 (16) 2 daa 1 (1) 2 (2) 1 daa 0 (1) 0 (0) No daa 12 (17) 2 (2) 3 daa or more 2 (2) 10 (10) 2 daa 0 (0) 2 (2) 1 daa 0 (0) 4 (3) No daa 16 (16) 2 (3) No daa for each sex (Naional repors): Anguila, Anigua & Barbuda, Neherland Anilles, Bahamas, Barbados, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Cosa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, Grenada, Guaemala, Guyana, Haii, Honduras, Briish Virgen Islands, Monserra, Nicaragua, Peru, Puero Rico, Dominican Republic, Sain Vicen and he Grenadines, Diferencia en punos porcenuales Sain Lucia, S. Kis & Nevis, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago, and Venezuela. In 10 ou of 38 figures, differences are under In brackes, availabiliy for men and women. Argenina 2001 Argenina 2002 Argenina 2004 Argenina 2005 Belice 1995 Belice 1997 Belice 1999 Brasil 2003 Brasil 2004 Ecuador 2004 Ecuador 2005 El Salv ador 1992 El Salv ador 1997 El Salv ador 2003 Jamaica 1991 Jamaica 1992 Jamaica 1993 Jamaica 1994 Jamaica 1995 Jamaica 1996 Jamaica 1997 Jamaica 1998 Jamaica 1999 Jamaica 2000 Jamaica 2001 Jamaica 2002 México 1992 México 1996 México 2001 México 2005 Panamá 2001 Panamá 2004 Paraguay 1996 Paraguay 1999 Paraguay 2000 Paraguay 2002 Uruguay 1991 Uruguay 1996 UN > counry Desafíos esadísicos e insiucionales para el monioreo de los Objeivos de Desarrollo del Milenio en los países de América Laina y el Caribe UN < counry

13 (45) Unemploymen rae of young people aged years. Toal/each sex Sources: Employmen Surveys, life condiions surveys, income and expendiures of households surveys Ocassional census and esimaions Main problems and facors explaining he differences 1. Use of employmen surveys or of any oher ype; differen survey periods 2. Geographic limiaion for applicaion of insrumens 3. Use of esimaions and projecions from oher insrumens 4. Definiion of numeraor and denominaor of he indicaor: - Age group which is considers as young and measuremen of populaion in working-age - Definiion of employed and unemployed - on he denominaor, wheher hidden unemploymen is considered Desafíos esadísicos e insiucionales para el monioreo de los Objeivos de Desarrollo del Milenio en los países de América Laina y el Caribe

14 Recommendaions 1. Improve informaion collecion procedures for adminisraive regisries: regisry a school level of iner-annual school flow 2. Advance in convergence of periods for collecing adminisraive informaion and improve measuremens for effecive enrollmen 3. Make and agree on shared projecion procedures; reach agreemen on he use of one source. 4. Sandardize definiions (duraion of primary cycle, lieracy, unemploymen, economically acive populaion) 5. Reach a common use and reamen of housing and employmen surveys 6. Improve informaion channels among Naional offices and agencies as o increase iming and opporuniy o repor adjusmen 7. Produce sandardized indicaors for inernaional comparisons. Desafíos esadísicos e insiucionales para el monioreo de los Objeivos de Desarrollo del Milenio en los países de América Laina y el Caribe