Vulnerability Assessment. Basic Concepts

Transcripción

1 Vulnerability Assessment Basic Concepts 1

2 Risk Assessment: Estimating Losses Hazard Damage Losses Economic Human Vulnerability Exposed assets Applications Application 1 Application 1 Application 1 Application 1

3 Vulnerability Assessment Seismic Vulnerability 3

4 UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LOSS ASSESSMENT PROCESS Hazard Structural vulnerability ü When ü What magnitude? ü Where ü How waves propagate ü What intensities will be generated in the ground? ü How local site effects amplify the motion? ü How the structure responds to the shaking? ü Which are the material s capacities? ü How is the construction quality ü How is the building damaged? ü How are the contents damaged?

5 Structural vulnerability Ground motion Damage cost

6 Structural vulnerability ü Tipification of the existent structures ü Assignement of damage behaviour models ü Relate the expected damage and a uncertainty measure with the seismic parameter that dominates the response for an specifict structural tipology

7 Vulnerability functions Admmit probabilistic representation

8 Vulnerability functions ü The damage s probability distribution is calculated as a function of the seismic intensity and the structural system. ü That is the loss, which is assigned a Beta distribution E(β γ i ) E( β γ ) i γ i = 1- exp ln0.5 γ 0 ε γ i

9 Vulnerability functions Damage variance ( ) ( ) 1 ) ( 1 1 ) ( ) ( 2 = s i E r i E Q i γ β γ β γ β β σ ( ) = s D r D max V Q = r D r s Variation of the variance (ATC-13,1985) With parameters D o. Damage level for the maximum variance V max. Maximum variance

10 Structural vulnerability components ü Material ü Age ü Geometry ü Structuration ü Special conditions

11 Materials REINFORCED CONCRETE STEEL STRUCTURAL MASONRY WOOD

12 Age

13 Geometry Irregularities

14 Geometry Irregularities

15 Structuration

16 Energy dissipation capacity SPECIAL DISSIPATION(DES) MODERATE DISSIPATION (DMO) MINIMUM DISSIPATION (DMI)

17 Vulnerability Constructive types Non-technified

18 Vulnerability Constructive types Earthen structures

19 Vulnerability Constructive types Adobe and Earthen structures

20 Structural systems Masonry

21 Structural systems Confined masonry

22 Vulnerability Constructive types Reinforced masonry

23 Vulnerability Constructive types Wooden structures

24 Vulnerability Constructive types Reinforced concrete frames

25 Structural systems Reinforced concrete walls

26 Structural systems Steel frames

27 SEISMIC PERFORMANCE FOR DIFFERENT STRUCTURAL TYPES Rigid ü Fragile materials ü Bearing walls ü Sensitive to peak ground acceleration Flexible ü Ductile capacity materials ü Frames or dual systems ü Sensitive to interstory drift

28 SEISMIC PERFORMANCE FOR DIFFERENT STRUCTURAL TYPES Rigid

29 SEISMIC PERFORMANCE FOR DIFFERENT STRUCTURAL TYPES Rigid

30 SEISMIC PERFORMANCE FOR DIFFERENT STRUCTURAL TYPES Rigid Retrofitting effect

31 Vulnerability assessment Acceleration sensitive structures Analtytical procedures

32 SEISMIC PERFORMANCE FOR DIFFERENT STRUCTURAL TYPES Rigid Vulnerability functions 100% 90% 80% 70% Daño Esperado [%] 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Tipo 1 - ADOBE Tipo 2 - BAHAREQUE Tipo 3A - MS - RÍGIDO Tipo 3B - MS - FLEXIBLE Tipo 3C - 2 PISOS MS Tipo 4 - MC+MS Tipo 13 - BODEGA MS Tipo 17 - ESTERILLA Tipo 18 - IGLESIA 0% Aceleración del Terreno [cm/s²]

33 SEISMIC PERFORMANCE FOR DIFFERENT STRUCTURAL TYPES Flexible

34 SEISMIC PERFORMANCE FOR DIFFERENT STRUCTURAL TYPES Flexible

35 SEISMIC PERFORMANCE FOR DIFFERENT STRUCTURAL TYPES Flexible Retrofitting effect

36 SEISMIC PERFORMANCE FOR DIFFERENT STRUCTURAL TYPES Flexible Retrofitting and isolation effects

37 SEISMIC PERFORMANCE FOR DIFFERENT STRUCTURAL TYPES Flexible Pounding

38 SEISMIC PERFORMANCE FOR DIFFERENT STRUCTURAL TYPES Flexible Recent research has shown that interstory distortion (γ) is highly correlated to structural damage.

39 SEISMIC PERFORMANCE FOR DIFFERENT STRUCTURAL TYPES Flexible Interstory drift: Is defined as the subtraction of two consecutive stories displacement divided by the story s height

40 SEISMIC PERFORMANCE FOR DIFFERENT STRUCTURAL TYPES Flexible γ is stimated with a simple flexion-shear model Flexure beam Shear beam H Axially rigid connectors Z

41 Earthquake vulnerability (Capacity curve) Force VS Displacement Damage states GA EI Vu Cortante Basal Vp Vy Vd Δd Δy Δp Desplazamiento Δu Curva idealizada Curva real

42 Earthquake vulnerability (Capacity spectrum) Equations to express the capacity curve in terms of Sa-Sd (ATC-40, 1996) V Sa = Sd α 1 M = Δ α 2 α 1 α 2 = ( miφi ) miφi = 2 1 FPM 2 FPM m φ i i = 2 miφi Sa u Aceleración espectral (Sa) Sa p Sa y Sa d Sd y Sd d Sd p Desplazamiento espectral (Sd) Sd u Curva idealizada Curva real

43 Earthquake vulnerability Equations to express the capacity curve in terms of Sa-Sd (ATC-40, 1996) γ i = ρ 2 β1β2β3β 4 η N 4π 2 Nh S a ( ηn ρ ) β 1 Maximum lateral displacement at the top level vs. Spectral displacement. β 2 Maximum interstory drift vs. Global structure distortion. β 3 Maximum lateral non-lineal displacement vs. Maximum lineal displacement. β 4 β 2 lineal vs. Non-lineal η, ρ Parameters to calculate natural vibration period

44 SEISMIC PERFORMANCE FOR DIFFERENT STRUCTURAL TYPES Flexible 100% 90% Vulnerability functions Daño Esperado [%] 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 1.20% 1.40% 1.60% 1.80% 2.00% Distorsión Máxima de Entrepiso [%] Tipo 5 - MMC Tipo 6 - MCONF Tipo 8 - RETCEL Tipo 10 - PCR FUERTE + MM Tipo 12 - MCR Tipo 15 - BODEGA + MM Tipo 5 MMC - DENSO Tipo 7 - MREF Tipo 9 - PCR DÉBIL + MM Tipo 11 - PCR+MCR Tipo 14 - BODEGA M Tipo 19 - PA

45 Vulnerability Assessment Flooding Vulnerability 45

46 Vulnerability functions Water depth

47 Flooding vulnerability General expresssion for the flooding level δ δ = δ N1max δ ( ~ t N1 ) N 1 ( ~ 1 t ) ( ) N1max st + δ N ~ t = t h N ( Nst 1) N Maximum damage level for the maximum water depth T Damage for a relative depth over the completly flooded levels Relative depth on the flooded levels Assessment methodology h N Story height N T Number of stories N = Ent ( t h st SUP N Water surface level, defined as the superior integer value of the indicated relationship )

48 Vulnerability functions Water depth Daño [%] 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Pórticos de concreto (5pisos) Profundidad [m] Mampostería reforzada (2pisos) Daño [%] 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Altura de agua [cm] Estructura Unifamiliar 1 piso Estructura Unifamiliar >2 piso Contenidos Unifamiliar 1 piso Contenidos Unifamiliar >2 piso

49 Vulnerability Assessment Vulnerability Assignment 49

50 Vulnerability Tipologies Zonation by structural systems and typologies Cod. MR1L MR1M MR2L MR2M MR2H W1 W2 S1L S1M S1H S2L S2M S2H S3 S4L S4M S4H C1L C1M C1H C2L C2M C2H CP1 CP2L CP2M CP2H Descripción Mamposteria Reforzada Diafragma flexible (madera, acero o prefab.) Bajos Mamposteria Reforzada Diafragma flexible (madera, acero o prefab.) - Medios Mamposteria Reforzada Diafragma "rigido" (en concreto prefabricado con plaqueta superior o fundido en sitio) - Bajos Mamposteria Reforzada Diafragma "rigido" (en concreto prefabricado con plaqueta superior o fundido en sitio) - Medios Mamposteria Reforzada Diafragma "rigido" (en concreto prefabricado con plaqueta superior o fundido en sitio) - Altos Madera Porticos Livianos Madera Comercial-Industrial Porticos acero resistentes a momento - Bajos Porticos acero resistentes a momento - Medios Porticos acero resistentes a momento - Altos Porticos acero arriostrados - Bajos Porticos acero arriostrados - Medios Porticos acero arriostrados - Altos Porticos acero livianos Porticos de acero con muros mamposteria simple - Bajos Porticos de acero con muros mamposteria simple - Medios Porticos de acero con muros mamposteria simple - Altos Porticos concreto resistentes a momentos - Acabados flexibles - Bajos Porticos concreto resistentes a momentos - Acabados flexibles - Medios Porticos concreto resistentes a momentos - Acabados flexibles - Altos Porticos concreto + Muros de cortante - Bajos Porticos concreto + Muros de cortante - Medios Porticos concreto + Muros de cortante - Altos Concreto prefabricado - Tilt-up Concreto prefabricado en porticos con muros estructurales de concreto - Bajos Concreto prefabricado en porticos con muros estructurales de concreto - Medios Concreto prefabricado en porticos con muros estructurales de concreto - Altos

51 Vulnerability Zonation by structural systems and typologies Cities zonations for vulnerability assignment General city zonation by satellite images or aerial photographs Information gathering Field trips Homogeneous zones definition Definition and characterisation of structural typologies Vulnerability classification according to homogeneous zones

52 Vulnerability Field verification formats ERN Evaluación de Riesgos Naturales - A m ér ica L a tin a - C o ns ulto res en R ies go s y D es as tres FORMATO: IT- VI-012 FECHA : 16/11/2009 PROYECTO CAPRA VERSION : 1.0 FORMATO CARACTERIZACION DE TIPOS CONSTRUCTIVOS CLIENTE : BM MAMPOSTERIA SIMPLE - FLEXIBLE, CUBIERTA LIGERA, FACHADA FRAGIL SIN DILATAR, BAJOS - 1 CODIGO: MS-FLSB-1 País: Honduras Elaboró: OEF Ciudad: Tegucigalpa Revisó: SFA ERN País: Honduras Evaluación de Riesgos Naturales - A m ér ica L a tin a - Consultores en Riesgos y Desastres Elaboró: OEF Ciudad: Tegucigalpa Revisó: SFA FORMATO: IT- VI-012 FECHA : 16/11/2009 PROYECTO CAPRA VERSION : 1.0 FORMATO CARACTERIZACION DE TIPOS CONSTRUCTIVOS CLIENTE : BM MAMPOSTERIA SIMPLE - FLEXIBLE, CUBIERTA LIGERA, FACHADA FRAGIL SIN DILATAR, BAJOS - 1 CODIGO: MS-FLSB-1 FOTOGRAFIA ESQUEM AS GENERALES CARACTERISTICAS CUBIERTA SOPORTE DE CUBIERTA MATERIAL DE CUBIERTA Diaf ragma de Cubierta Placa de concreto Placa de concreto Rigido X Flexible Sin Dia Vigas de concreto Teja de Barro X Cubierta en buen estado Vigas metalicas Teja Asbesto Cemento Cubierta en regular estado X Vigas de madera X Teja Zinc Cubierta en mal estado Cerchas metalicas Madera Luz entre apoyos de Cubierta aprox. :4-5 Cerchas de madera Paja o palma Inclinacion 15 # de aguas 1 Otro: Otro: CARACTERISTICAS DE FACHADA MATERIALES DE FACHADA MUROS DIVISORIOS Muros en Bloque dilatados Concreto X X Muros en Bloque sin dilatar X Mamposteria Muros en Mamposteria Muros en Madera Pref abricados Flotantes Otro: Acero Vidrio Adobe o tierra Madera Otro: Muros Pref abricado en concreto Muros en Dry Wall (Similares) Divisiones livianas Muros en Adobe o tierra Otro: CARACTERISTICAS GENERALES SISTEMA DE RESISTENCIA SISMICA MATERIAL ESTRUCTURA PRINCIPAL ACABADO DE PISO (DOMINANTE) CALIFICACION GENERAL Rango de No de pisos: 1-2 Pórticos resistentes a momento Concreto reforzado Concreto X Edificaciones en buen estado Alt. tipica de entrepiso: 2.20 m Pórticos arriostrados Concreto pref abricado Madera Edificaciones en regular estado Dim. En planta (Aprox)(m): 7 X 14 Pórticos y muros X Mamposteria X Tableta Edificaciones en mal estado Edad Aproximada (Años): 0-25 X Muros estructurales Acero Tapete Diafragma de entrepiso No tiene. Madera Tierra Rigido X Flexible Sin Dia Otro: Otro: Otro: DEFECTOS ESTRUCTURALES DEFECTOS CONSTRUCTIVOS DAÑOS OBSERVACIONES Cimentacion deficiente X Baja calidad en materiales Asentamientos Irregularidad en planta Mamposteria sin trabe Fisuras en columnas Irregularidad en altura Columna corta Golpeteo Baja calidad en morteros de pega Muros esbeltos y sin amarre Amarre de cubierta deficiente Fisuras en vigas Fisuras en muros Deflexiones excesivas X Otro Ninguno Otro X Otro Ninguno

53 Constructive types distribution Muros 1 and 2 story masonry houses Reinforced masonry systems Frame systems Dual systems

54 Vulnerability Zonation by structural systems and typologies Homogeneous zones by constructive types ZONA 1 - RESIDENCIAL ALTA ZONA 2 - RESIDENCIAL M EDIA ZONA 3 - RESIDENCIAL BAJA ZONA 4 - COMERCIAL ALTA ZONA 5 - COMERCIAL M EDIA ZONA 6 - COMERCIAL BAJA ZONA 7 - INDUSTRIAL ALTA ZONA 8 - INDUSTRIAL M EDIA ZONA 9 - INDUSTRIAL BAJA ZONA INSTITUCIONAL ALTA ZONA INSTITUCIONAL M EDIA ZONA INSTITUCIONAL BAJA

55 Vulnerability EXAMPLE ZONA 10 26% 34% PCR- RCSM- 5 PCR- RCSB- 2 1% 35% MC- RLSB- 2 4% MC- RLSB- 2 B- SPFB- 1 MR- RLSB- 2 B- SPFB- 1 A- SLSB- 1 MC- SLSB- 1 MC- SLSB % W- SLFB- 1 R- SLFB- 1 OTROS A- SLSB- 1 1% MS- SLSB- 1 MR- RLSB- 2 R- SLFB- 1 B- SPFB- 1 14% PCR- RCSB- 2 MC- RLSB- 2 W- SLFB- 1 MR- RLSB- 2 50% PCR- RCSM- 5 MS- SLSB- 1 A- SLSB- 1 MS- SLSB- 1 30% ZONA 8 PCR- RCSB- 2 4% ZONA 2 PCR- RCSM- 5 1% OTROS MC- SLSB- 1 W- SLFB- 1 R- SLFB- 1 OTROS ZONA 3 ZONA 9 PCR- RCSM- 5 1% 3% 3% MS- SLSB- 1 4% 29% 39% PCR- RCSM- 5 PCR- RCSB- 2 PCR- RCSB- 2 MS- SLSB- 1 MR- RLSB- 2 MR- RLSB- 2 45% 2% B- SPFB- 1 B- SPFB- 1 A- SLSB- 1 A- SLSB- 1 24% MC- RLSB- 2 26% MC- RLSB- 2 20% MC- SLSB- 1 W- SLFB- 1 4% MC- SLSB- 1 W- SLFB- 1 R- SLFB- 1 R- SLFB- 1 OTROS OTROS TOTAL CIUDAD PCR- RCSM- 5 PCR- RCSB- 2 1% 2% 0% 14% 4% MS- SLSB- 1 MC- RLSB- 2 14% 6% MR- RLSB- 2 1% 22% B- SPFB- 1 A- SLSB- 1 18% 18% MC- SLSB- 1 W- SLFB- 1 R- SLFB- 1 OTROS

56 Vulnerability Assessment Vulnerability Module 56

57 Software ERN-Vulnerabilidad

58 Online platform Vulnerability functions database

59 Vulnerability functions File content (Physical and human vulnerability values)

60 Vulnerability functions File content (Physical and human vulnerability values)