An energy transition for Spain

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Esperanza Moya Maestre
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1 An energy transition for Spain The Power and Industrial Sectors Marta Margarit General Secretary September 2016

2 Agenda 1. Natural gas, an essential fuel in the energy mix 2. Industrial sector 3. Power generation sector 4. Conclusions 2

3 1.- Natural gas, an essential fuel in the energy mix 3

4 A clean and non pollutant energy Improves air quality Less SO x and No x It does not emit solid particles PM10, harmful to health Reduces CO 2 emissions The lower CO 2 emissions from conventional energy 2

5 The lower cost on a life-cycle assessment (LCA) Source: GNF study (200kW / 200 MWh/año) Septiembre 2015

6 Competitividad económica del gas Generación de riqueza y empleo en pequeñas y medianas empresas. Situación actual del sector del gas en España (año 2014) puntos de suministro 30% de las viviendas españolas municipios Donde vive el 78% de la población km de redes de transporte y distribución En apenas 15 años, la red de transporte y distribución se ha multiplicado por dos Datos económicos Aportación al PIB: 0,5% Empleo: más de trabajadores Capacidad de inversión: millones de euros anuales millones de euros desde el año 2000

network throughout Spain Piped supply, low environmental

7 Safe supply and safe usage Guaranteed supply Long-term supply from multiple sources Transport and distribution network throughout Spain Piped supply, low environmental impact Infraestructuras a Diciembre 2014 Fuente: SEDIGAS Fuente Enagás GTS

8 2. Industrial sector 8

Natural gas for the industry Energy efficient and

and almost no space ERM de gas natural (Reducida

Maximum steam boiler performance Low temperature

ovens, the quality of combustion gases allow direct

lines, ovens) Cogeneration reduces the costs of

cerámico Quemadores en vena de aire Líneas de pintura

9 Natural gas for the industry Energy efficient and adapted to process No storage installation requiered and almost no space ERM de gas natural (Reducida ocupación) Calderas de vapor Sector agroalimentario Maximum steam boiler performance Low temperature allows heat recovery as water steam (condensation) In ovens, the quality of combustion gases allow direct application process (ceramics, brickworks, paint lines, ovens) Cogeneration reduces the costs of electricity and heat Hornos en continuo Sector cerámico Quemadores en vena de aire Líneas de pintura Quemadores regenerativos Hornos Sistemas de cogeneración Calor y electricidad simultáneos

10 Industrial usages Metal melters Melters Dryers Steam generation Thermal treatments Cogeneration Petrochemical products production Heating Cement industry Food industry Ceramic industry Textile industry Glass industry 10

Cogeneration is a competitive tool for the industry In Spain there is potential for cogeneration as there is lower growth than the European average Cogeneration contributes to reduced

11 Cogeneration is a competitive tool for the industry In Spain there is potential for cogeneration as there is lower growth than the European average Cogeneration contributes to reduced energy costs 40% Saving of primary energy and yields of 90% Generation of heat and electricity No transmission losses While the average penetration in Europe is 11.7%, Spain reaches 7.4%

12 Fuel consumption industrial sector There are approximately 15 KWh of gas equivalent of potentially replaceable fuel oil in the industrial sector It is estimated that 60% have access to the gas network 1 BIA: bajo índice de azufre

13 The industrial demand is 62% of the total natural gas demand (2015 demand increase) Source: Sedigas 13

14 Industrial demand boosted a little in 2015 (0.6%) in 2014 after accusing the closure of several cogeneration plants for the new power regulation TWh Industrial gas demand evolution Increase of 3,9 Twh Source: Sedigas 14

15 Clousure of severeal cogeneration plants 15

16 Industrial gas demand, 2015 Fuente: GTS 16

17 CNAE analysis shows the evolution by industry sector Desde 2014, las instalaciones de más de 5GWh/año con telemedida reportan el CNAE 17

18 Industrial sector demand forecast 2017 Fuente: GTS 1% increase in 2017 vs due to localized mainly in the sectors of construction, services and textiles increased. Efficiency: in 2017 demand could be reduced between -1TWh and -2,5TWh year 18

19 Energy costs are a significant part of operating costs in the industry 12% Datos % 8% 6% Adquisiciones de otros combustibles Adquisiciones de gas Adquisiciones de electricidad 4% 2% 0% Fuente: Encuesta Industrial de Empresa. INER 19

20 The cost of gas accounts for almost 85% of the total cost for the end user Costs passed by customer type ,0 ( Valores en /MWh ) 70,0 2,3 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 30,5 35,2 0,5 0,5 0,5 26,0 26,0 26,0 IEH Gas Peajes 10,0 0,0 6 MWh/año Doméstico 5,6 4,3 3,4 Industrial pequeño (2.2) Industrial mediano (2.4) Industrial grande (1.2) Hasta 5 GWh/año GWh/año GWh/año 20

21 Natural gas for industrial customers is below the european average Gas price for industrial customers ( / kwh) second half 2015 (¹) Source: Eurostat 21

22 LNG price depends on movements caused by global demand 0,050 Arranque nuclear Japón 0,045 0,040 0,035 EU-28 Germany Spain France United Kingdom 0,030 0,025 Fuente: Eurostat para la industria de consumo entre y GJ-Precios sin impuestos 22

23 3. Power generation sector 23

24 Gas demand for Power generation 2016 January September 2016 vs Power generation decreases by 15% from 44,7 TWh to 37,9 TWh Due to: Hidropower genertation increseases 33% Electricity imports from Portugal & France In 2015 power generation increased by 18,2% Due to decrease in wind power & Hydro generation 24

25 Power generation demand 2017 forecast Drivers: Electricty demand increases by 1,7 % (REE) Hydro generation: average Windpower: 26% Utilization Prices: Coal more competive than gas Results: Increase demand by CTCC vs 2016 Coal more competive than gas due to low CO2 taxes CO2 > 30 /ton will increase gas demand by 10TWh Power generation demand will be -/+ 8TWh/year depending on weather conditions Source: GTS 25

26 Flexibility, firmness and reduced CO2 emissions make natural gas an essential support to increase the penetration of renewables in the electricity sector The electricity sector is essential for the 2030 targets. Renewable Eenrgies require flexible reserve capacity CCGT, the best guarantee of stability in the sector: Firmness, flexibility and power already installed RES should increase 8 percentage points in equivalent to 25GW installed new electricity mix. Producción eléctrica por tecnología 41% 9% 9% 40% 49% 8% 26% 16% E Renovables Cogeneración CCCC Otros They will only required between 5,5GW and 10GW of additional CCGT capacity. Capacidad de Ciclos Combinados GW entre 5,5GW y 10GW 2015 Necesaria 2030 In 2030 the gas will constitute 43% of total firm capacity of the electrical system. The CCGT s will be the suppliers of firmness and stability to the electricity sector with a lower cost of investment. Capacidad firme (color) y no firme (blanco) por tecnología. Proyección a 2030 Nuclear Carbón Fuel/gas CCCC Cogeneración -residuos RES Biomasa Hidro Eólica Solar Otras Fuente: Coeficientes de firmeza empleados por REE para calcular el índice de cobertura. Con la capacidad de CCCC ya instalada en España se garantiza la aportación nacional a los objetivos 2030 Fuente: MINETUR 2014, EU Energy, Transport and GHG emissions Trend to 2050, Impact Assessment: A policy framework for climate and energy in the period from 2020 up to 2030 y elaboración propia. GW Capacidad firme Capacidad no firme otros; 42% CCCC; 58% Capacidad instalada total; 124GW Capacidad instalada Capacidad no firme; 62GW Capacidad firme; 62GW 26

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