Modelos para Gestion de Activos (Asset-Management) Greg Braswell Product Sector Leader- Real time Modeling

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1 Modelos para Gestion de Activos (Asset-Management) Greg Braswell Product Sector Leader- Real time Modeling

2 Activos (Assets) Es bueno tener activos o bienes Invertir (Bueno) Pero: Tenemos que gestionar Vamos a pensar como hombre de negocios

3 Activos Tienen Vida Como nosotros, Todos Nuesta Activos tienen El ciclo de vida Twinkle in his eye (tenía un brillo en sus ojos) Nacer Nino Joven Adulto Viejo Morir

Antony Esteban Arizapa: :http://es.slideshare.

4 Gestion de Ciclo de Vida Gestion de Inversion Tenemos que gestionar los activos por todo el ciclo de vida Gracias a: Antony Esteban Arizapa: :

5 Hacemos Modelos para Cada Fase de la Vida Modelo a usar modelo hidráulico Modelo de envejecimiento matematico (envejecer) (cambia en el tiempo)

6 Gestion de Envejecimiento de la Infraestructura Operacion Mantenimiento (mantener) Cambiar por uso diferente Reparación Rehabilitación reemplazo

7 Modelo de Envejecimiento Matematica Como cambia en el tiempo Como morir _ Edad Condicion Material Tipo de construccion Tipo de suelo etc

8 Tipo de Falla

9 Probabilidad de Falla

10 Que Pasara si Falla? Consecuencias de falla

11 Riesgo Riesgo=Probabilidad de falla X consecuencia de falla Riesgo=(Vulnerabilidad)x(amenaza)

12 Que quero? Que puedo pagar? Nivel de Servicio Cost-benefit:

13 Priorizar Basado en nivel de servicio Los activos mas peligroso son primero Inspecciones primero Primero vamos a rehabilitar antes de la falla Segundo menor riesgo: justo antes de la falla Tercero run to failure utilizar hasta indicios de falla.

14 What Portion of the System is at Risk? Risk Classification Likelihood of Failure Consequence of Failure Negligible Negligible Low Medium High 2 Negligible Negligible Low Medium High 3 Negligible Low Low High High 4 Low Low Medium High Extreme 5 Medium Medium High Extreme Extreme Risk Class Extreme High Medium Low Negligible Total Pipe Length 1.1 miles 4.2 miles 6.7 miles 36.5 miles 16.9 miles

15 Risk Analysis Operation and Capital Actions Integrate programs Determine timelines Estimate budgets Use to attain additional funding Risk Class Extreme High Medium Low Negligible Risk Class Extreme High Medium Low Negligible Operating Action CCTV or Inspect Immediately CCTV or Inspect every year CCTV or Inspect 3 years CCTV or Inspect every 5 year Do Nothing Capital Action Renew or Replace within 1 year Renew or Replace within 5 years Renew or Replace within 10 years Do Nothing Do Nothing

The Cycle of Risk Analysis Determine Consequence of Failure Determine Likelihood of Failure Develop Risk Attribute and GIS data Material Lining Score Pipes from

guess without inspecting the pipe Likelihood of Failure Prioritize CCTV Program Consequence of Failure 1 2 3 4 5 1 Negligible Negligible Low Medium High 2

16 The Cycle of Risk Analysis Determine Consequence of Failure Determine Likelihood of Failure Develop Risk Attribute and GIS data Material Lining Score Pipes from Pipe Age Defect Ratings Risk Proximity Classification to Railroads Nearby Excavation Activity Soil Type and Condition Depth Use Defect Scoring where available Best guess without inspecting the pipe Likelihood of Failure Prioritize CCTV Program Consequence of Failure Negligible Negligible Low Medium High 2 Negligible Negligible Low Medium High Prioritize Capital Improvement Program 3 Negligible Low Low High High 4 Low Low Medium High Extreme 5 Medium Medium High Extreme Extreme

17 Hydraulic Modeling Urban and River Systems We can not afford to pay for pipes big enough to carry all the possible rain Design to Fail Safe Design the roads AND the pipes at the same time 1D-2D InfoWorks ICM Integrated Catchment Modeling

18 Integrated Catchment Modelling Analysing the hydraulic performance of aboveground and below-ground drainage networks using a single model. Evaporation Precipitation Evaporation Surface runoff Coast Groundwater Estuary

Single simulation engine Manholes, pipes, inlets Natural and man-made channels Catchment and floodplain Common hydrology 1D and 2D integrated solution

20 Single simulation engine Manholes, pipes, inlets Natural and man-made channels Catchment and floodplain Common hydrology 1D and 2D integrated solution InfoWorks ICM Integrated Catchment Modelling New user interface New multi-user version control system New editing methodology New grouping structure Recycle bin

22 Hindcast NOW Forecast Alerts: CRITICAL floodlevel NON-CRITICAL floodlevel

23 Calculate a hazard rating, based on flood flow velocity, depth and debris potential

24 Calculate overland flow path and likely property inundation South West England

25 Deriving overland flow paths - Direct rainfall to a 2D mesh North West England

26 Inundation as a result of River Flooding Southern England

27 Bridges, Culverts and Watercourses Birmingham City Council

28 Case Study - Calculate cause of property flooding stormwater or river flooding?

29 Innovyze.com and Youtube!

30 Preguntame! Muchisimas Gracias Thanks!

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