STAR Ohio Update December 19, 2018
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1 STAR Ohio Update December 19, 2018 JD Pisula, Director of Investments, Office of Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel Jason Headings, CMT, Sr. Vice President, Meeder Public Funds If you are having technical difficulties, please call Go To Webinar at (800)
2 STAR Ohio vs. STAR Plus STAR Ohio Yield is based on portfolio of underlying securities Yield of securities is largely based on economic factors and expectations for interest rates, as well as credit risk As securities mature, the rate at which they can be reinvested depends on economic conditions at that time Current securities include: US Treasuries, US Government Agencies, Commercial Paper, Corporate Bonds, Repurchase Agreements, and Money Market Funds STAR Plus Yield is based on rates paid by a network of federally insured banks Yield of bank deposit accounts is based upon each banks current desire for deposits As banks demand for deposits increase, the bank will increase the rate it pays in order to attract deposits As banks demand for deposits decreases, the bank will decrease the rate it pays in order to push deposits out of the bank Economic outlook has less affect on bank rates 2
3 Program Reminders STAR Ohio Please provide 24 hour notice of withdrawals/deposits of $100 million or more STAR Plus Up to $50 million in FDIC insurance per participant Next day liquidity Withdrawals can be made any business day by 11am Funds available in account of record within 1 business day Tiered rate structure to provide additional yield 3
4 STAR Plus: Higher Yield Tier Higher Yielding Tier Structure $0 - $2.5 million: Tier 1 Yield currently 2.35% Over $2.5 million: Tier 2 Yield currently 1.40% Participants with balances in excess of $2.5 million will earn a blended yield Continues to be FDIC-insured All STAR Plus clients will experience a significant yield increase Deposits in STAR Plus support the growth of local communities from small business to infrastructure to social programs 4
5 Yield Comparison STAR Ohio vs. CraneData Inst Gov t Money Market Fund Index as of 11/30/18 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep % 2.30% STAR Ohio CraneData Inst Gov t Money Market Fund Index 2.33% 1.80% 1.95% 1.30% 0.80% 0.30% -0.20% 5
6 Yield Comparison STAR Ohio vs. S&P Average LGIP 7D Yield Index as of 11/30/18 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep % 2.00% STAR Ohio S&P LGIP 7D Yld Index 2.33% 2.22% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 6
7 Yield Comparison STAR Plus vs. CraneData Inst Gov t Money Market Fund Index as of 11/30/18 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep % 2.00% STAR Plus Inst. Gov't MF Index 2.35% 1.95% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 7
8 2017 Outlook 2018 Review 8
9 Economic Fundamentals 2018 Review Economic Growth Highest Reported GDP since 2014 Path of Federal Funds Interest Rate Early 2018 vs Late 2018 U.S. Housing Market Slowing since December 2017 Yield Curve Flattening/Inversion 9
10 2017 Outlook 2019 Outlook 10
11 Economic Fundamentals 2019 Economic Outlook Economic Growth Persist? Path of Federal Funds Interest Rate Inflation Yield Curve Flattening/Inversion Odds of Recession Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Reduction 11
12 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 U.S. & Ohio Labor Market NON-FARM PAYROLLS NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT OHIO UNEMPLOYMENT 10.00% 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% % Source: Bloomberg as of 12/12/
13 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Inflation 4.00% Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core YoY) Fed Target US Avg. Hourly Earnings (YoY) 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Source: Bloomberg as of 12/12/18 13
14 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Market Expectations of Inflation 3.00% US 5 Year Breakeven 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Source: Bloomberg as of 12/12/18 14
15 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Existing Home Sales New Home Sales (000) U.S. Home Sales 8.00% Existing Home Sales New Home Sales % % % % 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Natl. Assoc. of Realtors 15
16 Economic Growth Persist? Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep % Nominal GDP 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 16
17 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Low Delinquency Rates (%) 14.00% Consumer Loan Delinquency Rates Residential Mortgage Delinquency Rates 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17
18 1 M 6 M 2 Y 5 Y 7 Y 10 Y 30 Y Yield Curve Flattening 3.50% 11/30/ /29/ % 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% J F A M J S O D F Source: Bloomberg as of 12/12/18 18
19 Federal Reserve Policy Near Term Policy Outlook FOMC increased Federal Funds Rate in September Market currently predicts a roughly 70% chance of next rate hike in December 2018 Current expectations mixed for 2019 Longer Term Policy Outlook Prefer to manage inflation to a range going forward Powell is optimistic on U.S. labor market and economic growth 19
20 Rate path expectations Dot Plot from September Meeting 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% Federal Reserve Policy Projections 2018 Estimate 2019 Estimate 2020 Estimate 2021 Estimate Longer Term FOMC Median Dots 2.38% 3.13% 3.38% 3.38% 3.00% Federal Funds Futures 2.39% 2.94% 2.96% N/A N/A Overnight Interest Rate Swaps 2.35% 2.83% 2.77% 2.66% N/A 20
21 What does this mean for STAR Ohio? Expect yields in STAR Ohio to continue to increase Economists predicting further rate hike in 2018 Credit conditions continue to be favorable Portfolio should remain diversified in credit for near term STAR Ohio portfolio will maintain ample liquidity The portfolio continues to maintain high levels of liquidity which allow STAR Ohio to take advantage of movements in interest rates 21
22 Questions? 22
23 Thank You Thank you for your time today. If you have questions regarding the presentation, please feel free to contact us or the STAR Ohio Co-Administrator Public Funds Administrators (PFA). To receive CPIM credit for this webinar, enter STAR12 at the mycpim event page. Office of Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel (614) Public Funds Administrators (800)
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