Retos regulatorios y la crisis mundial. Javier Camargo

Transcripción

1 Retos regulatorios y la crisis mundial Javier Camargo javier.camargo@ericsson.com

2 Esta demostrado que las telecomunicaciones ayudan a reducir el impacto de la crisis económica mundial siempre y cuando se aceleren las inversiones para las redes de banda ancha móvil creando fuentes de trabajo, con regulaciones que promuevan el cuádruple play y que faciliten la cobertura en zonas rurales ó de bajos ingresos Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 2

3 Una sola tecnología para accesar internet Pirámide Económica Notebook/laptop Teléfono móvil Acceso compartido Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 3

4 Internet como detonador económico Desarrollo Administración de recursos Personales Negocios Instituciones Acceso a los mercados globales Acceso instantáneo a la información Rápida comunicación, menos desplazamiento Base de datos común y actualizada Acceso al conocimiento y creación de nuevos negocios Mejora la coordinación interna y la comunicación La gente Encontrar o crearse un trabajo Compras y transacciones desde el hogar Creación de comunidades en línea, nuevos Amigos y contactos El país Una nación moderna - Reducción de la pobreza - Estabilidad - Igualdad - Desarrollo ( crecimiento del PIB) Source: Ericsson market research in Indonesia, South Africa and Rwanda Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 4

5 El efecto Internet Sr. Robert, Director de región de un banco de Nyamata, Rwanda Reporta a oficina principal en Kigali 2 veces a la semana Antes de banda ancha: Imprimir reportes en un centro de negocios minibus 6h viaje redondo Pérdida de dos días de trabajo + costos de viaje Source: Ericsson market research Con banda ancha móvil: Retrazo de pago de prestamos se redujo Incremento de ganancias de 30% Los clientes se beneficiaron al reducirse las tasas de interés Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 5

6 Llegar a lo mas bajo de la pirámide Caso Bangladesh Modelo de negocios US$ 1,140 (PC) US$ 185 por modem EDGE US$ 8.60/12 cargo mensual por servicio Servicios que se ofrecen Ingreso mensual US$ US$ 0.30 por hora por navegación US$ 0.30 por una cuenta US$ 0.15 por resultados de la escuela US$ 0.07 por impresión de una hoja US$ 0.70 por hora de Skype con video Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 6

7 Banda ancha incrementa el PIB Un aumento en los enlaces de banda ancha del 10 %, contribuirá con un alza del PIB nacional de 1.3% (Fuente: Resultado de estudio del Banco Mundial, Información y comunicación para el desarrollo de 2009 ) Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 7

8 Banda ancha incrementa el PIB GDP GDP increase Jobs TOP-DOWN ESTIMATES USD billion % Million Asia Africa Central and Eastern Europe Latin America Total Assumptions: Mobile broadband reaches present levels of fixed broadband penetration of Western Europe today (54%); 10% broadband increase leads to 0.5% increase in GDP; employment elasticity of 0.5% Source: McKinsey & Company, Mobile broadband for the masses, February 2009 Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 8

9 3G/HSPA Una red que cubre todos los servicios Telefonía móvil Banda ancha móvil e/m-salud e/m-gobierno e/m-educación TV Móvil Video telefonía Telefonía fija Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 9

10 GSM, WCDMA/HSPA y LTE Las economías de escala como apoyo 8000 Reported Subscriptions (million) Other CDMA Mobile WiMAX TDSCDMA GSM/GPRS/EDGE WCDMA/HSPA LTE 3GPP family Mobile WiMAX CDMA Source: Ericsson Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 10

11 Las economías de escala facilitan el acceso a lo último en tecnología $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 $407 $367 $341 $311 $290 $287 $290 $295 $272 $270 $270 $254 $228 $217 $197 $198 $141 $129 $231 $221 ASP of WCDMA phones lowest 10% ASP of WCDMA phones lowest price $195 $191 $181 $176 $175 $163 $162 $156 $141 $128 $135 $128 $124 $105 $78 $67 $53 $54 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Note: WCDMA Phones Sold per Calendar Quarter; lowest price represents complete phones sold in quantities of approx 50,000 units or higher Note: Data derived from licensee reports. Does not include modules or modems. Source: QUALCOMM Incorporated Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 11

12 Evolución continua de capacidades LTE Advanced LTE HSPA Evolution 3G 3G/HSPA Peak rate /14 21/28/42 ~150 kbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps / Target 1 Gbps 2013 Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 12

13 Banda ancha sustentable Como llegar a los segmentos de bajos ingresos en una forma rentable? -Baja renta para banda ancha -Terminales económicas -Reducción de CAPEX -Bajo OPEX -Compartición de Infraestructura Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 13

14 >50% of PC households addressable at 10 USD/month - Bangladesh 100% 80% Addressable market* 60% 40% Reasonable Expensive 20% 0% Cheap Broadband Subscription Cost per Household [USD/Month] Expensive Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab study in Bangladesh 2007 Base: the 37% that were interested in getting broadband out of 2,500 interviews Acceptable Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 14

15 Regional Broadband Tariffs South East Asia $80 TM (F) $77.84 Monthly Tariff [US$] $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 Maxis (F) $25.56 TM(F) $22.36 Maxis (M) $22.65 DiGi (M) Globe (F) $20 $19.17 Celcom (M) $21.05 Maxis (F) $19.72 $14.52 GP (M) $14.90 $10 Indosat (M) $10.35 Globe (F) $52.90 TRUE (F) $21.75 TM (F) $54.60 SMART (F) $42.21 TRUE (F) $25.81 Digitel (M) $21.14 M1 (M) $18.90 StarHub (C) $18.34 SMART (F) $63.48 Indosat (M) $51.75 SingTel (F) $43.50 Celcom & Maxis (M) $28.46 M1 (M) SingTel (F) $25.08 $22.95 SingTel & StarHub (M) $50.75 M1 (C) $33.84 StarHub (C) $29.26 SingTel (F) $31.39 MBB median tariff: $21 $- Bandwidth [kbps] Sources: Service Provider websites, Dec Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 15

16 Bringing down Cost per bit Terminals RAN Transport RNC & Core Asset Sharing/NW Utilization Service differentiation Economies of scale $70 modems x10 spectrum efficiency & extended coverage Flexible Ethernet Migration & FTTx x5 capacity Tunnelling, Flat-architecture/SAE >x10 RNC Capacity in 3 years, Terabit core Sharing sites and Transport Network Intelligent Traffic shaping and Priority Handling Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 16

17 The base case Cost and cost drivers of Mobile Broadband $/Sub/month Typical MBB network* Total cost ~7-10 $/Sub/month ITC, 0.4 Backhaul, 0.7 Core & Service Layer, 0.4 RAN, 2.0 CAPEX Main cost drivers Number of Node Installations BH Traffic BH Traffic Number of Nodes & BH Traffic Source: Ericsson NW O&M, 0.8 Customer Support, 0.6 Sales & Marketing, License & Service Fees, 1.4 International BW, 1.1 OPEX Power, traffic, Maintenance, Site rental Number of subscribers &SLA Campaigns, subs subsidies and license fees BH Traffic & Traffic mix *Usage: 3 GB (21 kbps in BH) Speed: 1.5 Mbps GSM Sites Available Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 17

18 Large cost differences for international bandwidth Monthly cost for Internation Gateway Capacity (USD/Mbps/month) $400 $350 $319 $300 $147 $94 $94 $51 $39 $21 Egypt South Africa India Kenya* Colombia Peru Argentina Korean Rep Singapore Nordics Lowest lease price of STM-1 cables to/from the US. African prices are for cables connecting Africa and Europe or Asia. * Kenya: Expected price 2H 2009 when new cables are deployed Source: Ericsson Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 18

19 HSPA results year one Claro, Brazil (part 1) Key Facts Brazil Population: 191,908,500 GDP (per capita): US$ 9500 Fixed line penetration: 20% Mobile penetration: 75% Internet penetration: 35.2% Broadband penetration: 3.5% Focus Area Claro installs HSPA network to boost revenue and deliver innovative services such as television and video streaming and online gaming HSPA network used to deliver broadband access where fixed-line infrastructure is poor or doesn t exist Implementation of 3G/HSPA services Network launched November 2007 Ideal spectrum (850MHz) to cost effectively serve the vast country By October 2008 HSPA technology rolled out in about 280 cities in 20 states of Brazil and available to >70 million people Broadband tariffs based on average throughput speed * Q Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 19

20 HSPA results year one Claro, Brazil (part 2) Achieved results The HSPA network is the fastest broadband option available in many neighborhoods Both subscriber numbers and traffic levels have far exceeded Claro s original expectations Data traffic volume soared twenty fold since the launch Service revenues up 19%, as 3G non-voice and Mobile Broadband revenues soared 58%* * Q Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 20

21 Prepaid plans to address a mass market Prepaid was essential to attract the next billion to mobile voice services 71% prepaid Mobile broadband prepaid plans are under rollout all across Latin America and other regions Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 21

22 Rural HSPA targeting bottom of the pyramid Dialog Telekom, Sri Lanka (part1) Key Facts Sri Lanka Population: 21,324,000 GDP (per capita): US$ 4,300 Fixed line penetration: 13% Mobile penetration: 40% Internet penetration: 1,4% Broadband penetration: 0.5% Focus Area Targets bottom of economic pyramid with rural mobile broadband leveraging HSPA technology rural economy generates $350 million/month compared to $110 million in the urban economy Implementation of 3G/HSPA services HSPA services launched 2007, 3G 2006 a great opportunity from a financial perspective only requires a 20% incremental investment * By end HSPA launched Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 22

23 Rural HSPA targeting bottom of the pyramid Dialog Telekom, Sri Lanka (part 2) Achieved results 120k 3G subscribers, 30k HSPA users* Broadband commercially viable even among the poorest Leverage knowledge of the low-arpu prepaid voice market Shared access & Sachet billing 0.56 USD/hour BB internet at 55 rural internet cafés Individual access: Flat fee and bucket pricing * By end HSPA launched Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 23

24 Soporte de la Regulación para facilitar el mercado masivo Acceso sin limites al espectro necesario Espectro armonizado a las recomendaciones internacionales Liberar servicios Cargo por licencias y contra prestaciones razonables Aplicación de impuestos después de crear cobertura y un sano negocio Facilitar compartición de partes de la red. Apoyar con la construcción rápida de la red de energía para el desarrollo rural Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 24

25 Resumen La banda ancha ayuda a reducir la crisis económica La banda ancha móvil ayuda a los individuos, negocios, instituciones, la sociedad y la economía de las naciones El regulador tiene un papel importante para que esto suceda El operador requiere facilidades para invertir en zonas rurales en una manera rentable El desarrollo tecnológico de EDGE/HSPA/LTE garantiza una gran economía de escala para banda ancha móvil / fija Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 25

26 Ericsson AB 2009 Commercial in confidence 26