PLATTS BUNKER & RESIDUAL FUEL OIL CONFERENCE - Bunkering In the West Coast of South America June 11-12, 2013 Houston, TX Ramón Espinel, General Manager
Bunker Markets in the West Coast of South America Panamá
Oil Producing Countries in the West Coast of South America Yearly Oil Production (MM Bbl) 400 350 300 329.38 339.84 250 282.87 200 150 177 182 184 Colombia Ecuador Perú 100 50-26.53 25.39 2010 2011 2012 23.98 Sources: Banco Central del Ecuador, Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos de Colombia, Perúpetro
CPP deficits in Ecuador and Perú Bunker & Residual Fuel Oil Conference Ecuadorian CPP Consumption 2012 by Source Imports Production 21.7 mbls 41% 31.2 mbls 59% Peruvian CPP Consumption 2012 by Source Imports Production 14.9 mbls 28% 37.7 bls 72% Sources: Banco Central del Ecuador, Perúpetro
Fuel Oil Production Ecuador & Perú Ecuadorian Fuel Oil Production 2012 by Destination (MM Mts) Consumption Exports 1.3 TM 49% 1.4 TM 51% Peruvian Fuel Oil Production 2012 by Destination (MM Mts) Consumption Exports 0.4 TM 23% 1.3 TM 77% Sources: Banco Central del Ecuador, Perúpetro
Ecuadorian Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Ecuadorian 2012 Domestic Fuel Oil Market by Destination INDUSTRY MARITIME THERMOELECTRIC 3.42 Mbls 38% 1.94 MBls 22% 3.57 MBls 40% Source: Banco Central del Ecuador
Regional Energy Matrix 2011 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Others Bio Coal Natural Gas Hydroenergy Oil 20% 10% 0% Panamá Chile Colombia Ecuador Perú Source: Organización Latinoamérica de Energía - OLADE
Ecuadorian Energy Matrix Destination of Ecuadorian Fuel Oil (TM/año) 2012 2020 FUEL OIL Industrial 293,581 401,786 Thermoelectric 518,904 389,178 Minning 194,946 Maritime/Exports 1,840,946 2,309,921 RESIDUALS Industrial 108,518 148,514 Thermoelectric 546,190 409,643 TOTAL 3,308,139 3,853,987 Source: Organización Latinoamérica de Energía - OLADE
Regional Investment in Refining Capacity Ecuador Esmeraldas Actualmente Upgrade Projected Capacity bpd 95.700 110.000 Conversion Rate 60% 65% Projected Comissioning 2013 Comments: -Upgrade to allow 100% operating capacity - Residuals: 38,300 38,500 bpd Comments: -Residuals: 45.000 bpd Refinería del Pacífico Project Projected Capacity bpd 300.000 Conversion Rate 85% Projected Comissioning 2018 Perú Talara Current Upgrade Source: Petroecuador, www.rdp.ec, Petroperú Projected Capacity bpd 65.000 95.000 Conversion Rate 58% 80% Projected Comissioning 2015 Comments: -Residuals: 27,300 19,000 bpd
Bunker Supply and Demand in Latin America s West Coast 4,000,000 Bunker Sales (MTs) 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 - Panamá Colombia Ecuador Perú Chile 2010 3,067,530 766,436 549,159 418,461 604,758 2011 3,395,919 868,137 625,571 420,229 719,570 2012 3,456,294 983,333 534,909 508,351 458,011 Average Yearly Prices IFO 380 Year Panamá Colombia Ecuador Perú Chile Cristobal Cartagena Guayaquil Callao Valparaiso 2012 682.7 696 689.0 706.6 732.0 2011 664.5 689 666.2 685.7 699.9 2010 488.2 514 502.5 517.5 530.8 Source: Autoridad Marítima de Panamá, Banco Central del Ecuador, Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos de Colombia, Perupetro y Superintendencia de Electricidad y Combustibles de Chile, Platts
Bunker supply and demand in Latin America s Pacific Coast 10,007 4,566 Bunker Market Penetration 2010 9,365 # of vessels # of vessels fueled 46% 12% 22% 3,880 3,714 17% 12% 7,310 9,846 9,799 4,810 Bunker Market Penetration 2011 # of vessels # of vessels fueled 49% 13% 24% 24% 14% 3,921 3,815 7,816 1,292 957 625 1071 1,141 853 623 900 Panamá Colombia Ecuador Perú Chile Panamá Colombia Ecuador Perú Chile Bunker Market Penetration 2012 # of vessels # of vessels fueled 53 % 9,783 14 10,253 % 22 % 21 % 9% 7,513 5,153 3,400 3,664 1,463 744 756 682 Panamá Colombia Ecuador Perú Chile Source: Autoridad Marítima de Panamá, Banco Central del Ecuador, Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos de Colombia, Perupetro
Ecuadorian Fleet Evolution - post Resolución 346/05 Ecuador 2005 2013 No. of Vessels 20 27 DWT 68,338 117,133 IACS 45% 67% Non-IACS 55% 33% Av. Age 30 20 DH - DB 45% 85% SH 55% 15% Source: Subsecretaría de Puertos de Ecuador
Regional Fleets Tanker Vessels Panamá Colombia Ecuador Perú Chile Bunker Market/TM (2012) 3,456,294 983,333 534,909 508,351 458,011 No. of Vessels 27 23 27 12 6 DWT 128,899 N/D 117,133 32,530 21,972 IACS 85% N/D 67% 62% 100% Non-IACS 15% N/D 33% 38% 0% Av. Age 27 24 20 24 22 DH - DB 67% 0 85% 50% 67% SH 33% 63% 15% 50% 33% Sorce: Subsecretaría de Puertos de Ecuador
Fuel Storage in Panamá Fuel Storage 2012 18.081.739 bls Projected Fuel Storage 2020 32.581.739 bls Source: Secretaría Nacional de Energía en Panamá / June, 2012
Impact of the Canal Expansion Panamá IFO: 600 MTs MDO: 250 MTs DWT: 65.000-80.000 TONS TRANSIT/YEAR: 14.000 VESSELS POTENTIAL MARKET: 8.4 MM MTs Source: Secretaría Nacional de Energía en Panamá IFO: 1000 Mts MDO: 500 MTs DWT: 150.000-160.000 TONS TRANSIT/YEAR (est.): 19.600 VESSELS POTENTIAL MARKET: 19.6 MM MTs
Bunker & Residual Fuel Oil Conference June 11-12, 2013 Houston, TX Ramón Espinel, General Manager