Mercado de Capitales: Regulación e Infraestructura de Transporte. TEMA: Avances en la Consolidación del Mercado Integrado Latinoamericano (MILA)

Transcripción

1 1 Mercado de Capitales: Regulación e Infraestructura de Transporte TEMA: Avances en la Consolidación del Mercado Integrado Latinoamericano (MILA) Olver Bernal Especialista Lider de Mercados Financieros

2 CONTENIDO INTRODUCCION DESARROLLO DEL MILA FUTURO CORTO Y MEDIANO PLAZO INTEGRACION FINANCIERA EN LA CONCLUSION

3 Latin America compared with Europe and Asia Increased complexity Latin America 1 Europe (EU27) 2 Expanded Southeast Asia 3 Total GDP 3 of US$ 4.7 trillion Total GDP 4 of US$ 16.3 trillion Total GDP 4 of US$ 9.4 trillion 21 countries 27 countries 15 countries 2 main languages Spanish and Portuguese Dozens of languages 23 in the European Union More than a dozen languages 548 million inhabitants 499 million inhabitants 3.4 billion inhabitants 1. Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, the Falkland Islands, Guatemala, Guiana, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Surinam, Uruguay and Venezuela. 2. Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the 20 Netherlands, million Poland, km 2 Portugal, Rumania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, 4.4 Sweden million and the United km 2 Kingdom. 3. Cambodia, North Korea, 14 South million Korea, China, Singapore, km 2 Philippines, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Laos, Macao, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, Taiwan, Vietnam. 4. Nominal GDP in 2010 (US$ in PPP) 2. Actual growth between 2005 and 2010 (2005 prices) Source: EIU 3

4 Latam financial services market is small but has a great potential Banking assets (US$) 1 N. America 17.7 Latin America is still a relatively small market......but growing faster... Value (US$ T, 2011) % of ww CAGR Asia - Pac EMEA 57.8 Latin Am % 31% 50% 4% 5% 15% 3% 20%...and with significant potential going forward Penetration over GDP ( ) 68% 105% 164% 242% Market Cap. (US$) 2 N. America % -4% Asia - Pac % 4% EMEA % -6% Latin Am % 10% 41% 51% 70% 104% Mutual fund AUM (US$) 3 N. America % 2% Asia - Pac % 4% EMEA % -1% Latin Am % 18% 15% 26% 34% 74% Insurance premium (US$) 4 North Am % 1% Asia - Pac % 10% EMEA % 3% Latin Am % 17% 3% 7% 8% 7% 1. Economist Intelligence Unit (from OECD data); EIU estimates based on partial data used where final data not available 2. World Federation of Exchanges members; North America includes NASDAQ OMX which includes Copenhagen, Helsinki, Iceland, Stockholm, Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius Stock Exchanges. Asia-Pacific total region excludes Osaka SE and NSE India to avoid double counting with Tokyo SE and Bombay SE, respectively 3. Investment Company Institute; does not include funds of funds; Middle East not tracked 4. Swiss Re Sigma research; 5. GDP based on EIU data for the countries analyzes for each of the four types of financial services Source: World Federation of Exchanges; Investment Company Institute; EIU; Swiss Re; BCG analysis 4

5 Lack of intra-regional trade comparing with Europe and Asia Latin American intra-regional exports of merchandise are not very relevant......the same being true for intraregional imports Importance of intra-regional exports Importance of intra-regional imports Intraregional exports/ total region imports 100 Intraregional imports/ total region imports % 68% 67% 80 77% 73% % 41% 42% % 46% 48% 50% 20 17% 18% 17% 20 16% 16% 15% Latin America 1 Asia 2 Europe 1. Excludes Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guiana, Honduras, Panama and Surinam 2. Excludes Cambodia, Macao and Vietnam Note: All values are nominal Source: Unctad Online handbook of statistics, Eurostat, International Trade Center, domestic statistics institutes; BCG analysis

6 6 MILA: CAPITALIZATION BURSATIL Agosto % $ $ % Chile Colombia Peru $ %

7 MILA: VALOR DE LAS TRANSACCIONES AGOSTO % $451 Chile 36% $1.880 $ % Colombia Peru

8 NUMERO DE EMISORES AGOSTO 2013 Number of Issuers Number of Issuers 50 - Chile Colombia Peru

9 MILA: INTERMEDIARIOS Listed Brokers Active Brokers Chile Colombia Peru

10 MILA: FONDOS MUTOS EN OPERACION AGOSTO 2013 $ $ $ $ $ $ CHILE COLOMBIA PERU $-

11 MILA: TRANSACCIONES AGREGADAS HASTA AGOSTO 2013 PERU $ $ COLOMBIA $ $ PERU COLOMBIA CHILE $ CHILE $ $- $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

12 MILA: FUTURO CORTO PLAZO INGRESO DE MEXICO ARMONIZACION DEL MERCADO DE RENTA VARIABLE MODELO INTEGRADO DE SUPERVISION MEDIANO PLAZO AMPLIACION DEL MERCADO ARMONIZACION DEL MERCADO FINANCIERO INTEGRACION FINANCIERA TRATAMIENTO TRIBUTARIO MERCADO CAMBIARIO REGULACION FINANCIERA

13 INTEGRACION FINANCIERA EN LA MILA ALIANZA DEL PACIFICO BRASIL

14 Dinamizar la integración regional un objetivo de la agenda internacional Avance bancarización Desarrollo del Mercado de Capitales Impacto competitividad Fortalecimiento seguridad financie Promoción de la eficiencia Y ante contagio de crisis, menor vulnerabilidad del sector via mayor diversificacion

15 MUCHAS GRACIAS