La crisis del euro: Europa y España

Transcripción

1 La crisis del euro: Europa y España Director Académico del Centro Sector Público Sector Privado

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3 La crisis del euro

4 El origen del euro Proyecto político Área euro no es una zona monetaria óptima

5 La teoría Disciplina interna y disciplina externa: PEyC y no rescate

6 La práctica

7 Economic growth in selected euro-area countries Chain linked volumes at 2000 prices, Index 1995=100 Ireland 105.0% (growth ) Greece 55.6% Spain 50.2% Portugal 29.5% Belgium 29.2% Netherlands 36.9% France 27.4% Italy 11.4% Euro area 29.5% Germany 16.2% Source: Eurostat, Database, Economy and Finance, National Accounts, 14 January 2011; Ifo Institute calculations.

8 Unit labour costs growth 140 Index 1999QI=100, seasonally adjusted Spain Euro area* Germany * changing composition Source: Eurostat: Nominal unit labour cost, seasonally adjusted and adjusted data by working days, namq_aux_ulc-unit labour cost - quarterly data, data extracted on 13 December 2010.

9 Net capital exports = current account balance 200 billion euros Germany Sum of Greece, Ireland Portugal and Spain Note: No data published for Ireland and Spain until Source: Eurostat, Database, Economy and Finance, Balance of payments - International transactions, Balance of payments by country, 13 December 2010, Ifo Institute calculations.

10 Interest rates for 10-year government bonds % 28 April 7May 19 Jan. Greece 8 Ireland Portugal % Italy Introduction of euro cash Spain Italy France Germany Greece Irrevocably fixed exchange rates Introduction of virtual euro Greece Germany Ireland Portugal Spain Italy Belgium France Finland Netherlands Source: Reuters Ecowin, Government Benchmarks, Bid, 10 year, yield, close, 20 January 2011.

11 Greece Hungary Italy United Kingdom Portugal Poland France Germany Malta Slovakia Romania Austria Netherlands Lithuania Latvia Cyprus Spain Ireland Czech Republic Slovenia Bulgaria Belgium Denmark Finland Member states with excessive deficits Number of years since1999orfromyearofentry Deficit exceeding 3% of GDP was allowed because of recession (29) Violations of the S&G-Pact (68) Sanctions: Without excessive deficit: Sweden, Luxembourg and Estonia. Source: Eurostat, Database, Economy and Finance, National accounts - GDP and main components; Government statistics- Government deficit/surplus, debt and associated data ; European Economic Forecast Autumn 2010, Annex Table 37; Ifo Institute calculations

12 El resultado Vulnerabilidad a ataques especulativos Contagio

13 France Germany Other euro area United Kingdom Claims of foreign banks on the public sectors of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain (GIPS) End-Q1 2010, billion euros Japan United States Spain Rest of World Greece Ireland Portugal Spain Italy Source: Bank for International Settlements, BIS Quarterly Review, September 2010, p. 16.

14 Ha fallado el paraguas del euro frente a la crisis?

15 Los planes de rescate Grecia, EFSM, Irlanda, Pacto del euro, ESM, Portugal, Grecia,

16 La respuesta europea Problema de liquidez y no de solvencia Proteger a bancos y tenedores de bonos Ayuda condicional a ajustes recesivos

17 Opciones para Grecia 1. Salida del euro 2. Reestructuración de la deuda 3. Más ayuda y más restricciones/reformas

18 Qué modelo para la zona euro? Mercado o Directorio? Tiene futuro el euro sin unión fiscal? Déficit democrático

19 Modelos puros y mixtos

20 Propuesta del EAAG Objetivo Mecanismo de gestión de crisis de deuda soberana en el área euro Liquidez Amenaza de insolvencia Insolvencia Supervisión y sanciones fiscales Supervisión macroprudencial del sistema bancario

21 El corto plazo

22 A map of economic growth in the EU member countries Real GDP growth in Source: EEAG forecast.