Investment Opportunities in Latin America & the Caribbean Airports sector in 2040

Transcripción

1 BANCO DE DESARROLLO DE AMÉRICA LATINA Investment Opportunities in Latin America & the Caribbean Airports sector in 2040 ACI-LAC Annual Conference Session: Airports Infrastructure and Financing Brasilia, 09 november 2016 Panelist: Rafael Farromeque Quiroz Senior Specialist - CAF Vicepresidency of Infrastructure Head of the Logistics Development Program for Latin America

2 A sample of 100 airports, which represent 95% of the air traffic markets in CAF countries Caribbean Region Trinidad & Tobago: - Port of Spain - Tobago Central America Region Mexico: - México DF - Cancún - Guadalajara - Monterrey - Tijuana - Pto. Vallarta - Los Cabos - Mérida - Hermosillo Panama: - Tocumen - Culiacán - Guanajuato - Veracruz - Villahermosa - Chihuahua - La Gutierrez - Toluca - Cd. Juarez - Mazatlan - Tampico Costa Rica: - San José Brazil Region Andean Region Colombia: - Bogotá - Rio Negro - Cali - Cartagena - Barranquilla Venezuela: - Caracas - Maracaibo - Porlamar Bolivia: - La Paz - Cochabamba - Santa Cruz Barbados: - Bridgetown Jamaica: - Montego Bay - Kingston - Bucaramanga - San Andrés - Pereira - Santa Marta - Cúcuta - Olaya Herrera Peru: - Lima - Cuzco - Arequipa - Iquitos Ecuador: - Quito - Guayaquil Brazil: - Sao Luiz - Campo Grande - Belo Horizonte - Curitiba - Sao Paulo - Brasilia - Goiania - Cuiabá Dominican Rep.: - Punta Cana - Santo Domingo - Cibao - Viracopos Florianopolis Rio de Janeiro Vitoria Salvador de Bahia Fortaleza Recife Maceió Southern Cone Region - Buenos Aires Aeroparque - Antofagasta - Asunción - San Carlos de Bariloche- Concepcion - Calama - Córdoba - Buenos Aires - Ezeiza Calafate Iguazú Iquique la Serena Mendoza Montevideo Neuquén - Puerto Montt Punta Arenas Santiago de Chile Salta Tucumán Ushuaia 2

3 The methodology used in this project takes into account the different factors and dynamics of air transport sector The following methodology was used to identify the needed airport investments in the LAC region within the period 1 CAGR TOTAL: 5,1% CAGR Demand Forecasts for each airport México y CenAm 5.3% Caribe 3.8% Andina 5.9% Brasil 4.5% 4.8% Cono Sur Air traffic forecast Forecast detailed at country and airport level for DOM and INT Market & traffic Infrastructure and facilities On-going & planned projects and management structure Maximum airport capacity for each subsystem Demand / Capacity gap Identification of capacity needs Investments required for closing the gap in 2040 Production of detailed CapEx evolution Airport characterization 3 Capacidad 2040 Capacidad 310 Demand-Capacity Analysis and gap identification Méx y CenAm 4 Caribe Andina Brasil Cono Sur Capacidad Proyectos Capacidad Previstos 2040 Total Inversión Méx y CenAm: M.US$ Study about the required gapclosing investments % % % Costa Rica '16-'20 '21-'25 '26-'30 Mexico '31-'35 Panamá '36-'40 Total 3

4 Airport traffic in Latin American & Caribbean (CAF) region is expected to treble by 2040, experiencing an average growth of 5.1% per annum CAF Airports Traffic Demand Forecast1 (Mpax) BASE CAGR: 5.1% High-case: 6.0% Low-case: 4.3% ,189 1,784 1,707 1,633 1,560 1,490 1,421 1,355 1,290 1,263 1,227 1,451 1,1081,167 1, ,684 CAGR % CAGR % Central America 8.0% 3.8% Caribbean 3.0% 3.8% Andean 10.8% 5.9% Brazil 9.0% 4.1% Southern Cone 8.0% 5.4% 1, Mexico Airport traffic: departures + arrivals per airport. CAF Region ( sample of 100 airport) Source: ALG Analysis 4

5 Nearly 50 airports will surpass 10 million passengers by MTY MTY CUN GDL 2040 CUN GDL MEX MEX CCS PTY MDE CCS BOG CLO BOG FOR REC LIM BSB SSA LIM BSB TIJ HMOCUU MTY CUL SJD GDL MID CUN SDQ PVR BJX MBJ PUJ VSA MEX TGZ ADZ PMV BAQSMR POS SJO CTG CUCCCS PTYMDE BGA PEI BOG CLO UIO GYE IQT MAO SSA LIM CUZ BEL FOR NAT REC MCZ SSA BSB CBB CGBGYN CNF VIX IQQ LBP VVI CGR SDU GIG CJC VCP CGH IGU ANF POAGRU COR FLN EZE CWB SCL AEP AQP GIG GRU CGH SCL EZE AEP VCP SCL EZE AEP CGH GRU POA CWB Airport Annual Pax M M Over 25 M CCP PMC PUQ 5

6 Based on our forecasts and assumptions, the global capacity gap will surpass 1 billion Pax by 2040 Airports without capacity deficit = 64 Base unconstrained demand forecast vs constrained and resulting gap (Mpax) Unconstrained Demand 1,784 forecast 5.1% Mpax 1,800 1,600 1,421 1,400 1, Demand % Demand that can be accommodated, but with a saturated airport Residual Capacity Capacity Airport with capacity deficit = Constrained rved Unse and Dem 1, Traffic Low 1, Traffic 199 Capacity Deficit Capacity By 2025, the airport capacity gap will reach 218 Mpax 6

7 Over 300 potential capacity expansion projects have been identified Greenfield Airports Airport Projects Tijuana Ciudad Juárez Chihuahua Hermosillo Culiacán Ciudad de México Monterrey Leon-Guanajuato Tampico Mérida S. J. del Cabo Mazatlán Guadalajara Toluca Puerto Vallarta Ciudad de México Veracruz Tuxtla Gutierrez Guatemala Montego Bay Santiago de los Caballeros Punta Cana Kingston Villahermosa Santo Domingo Santa Marta San Andrés La Paz Barranquilla Cartagena Medellín Tocumen Pereira San Jose de Costa Rica New Runways Cancún Cartagena Eldorado II Guayaquil Monterrey Tobago Isla Margarita Puerto de España Guadalajara Ciudad de México Caracas Cancún Tocumen Medellín Cali Bucaramanga Cucutá Bogotá Cusco Sao Paulo (4º aeropuerto) Eldorado Cali Belém Quito Lima Sao Luiz Manaus Iquitos Guayaquil Natal Recife Maceio Piura Trujillo Chiclayo Lima Cusco Arequipa Goiania Cuiabá Calama Salta Tucumán La Serena Santiago de Chile Foz de Iguazú Mendoza Belohorizonte Asunción Belo Horizonte Salvador Bahía Viracopos Rio de Janeiro Ezeiza Terminal Expansions Vitoria Viracopos Campo Grande Antofagasta Iquique Salvador de Bahía Brasilia Cochabamba Brasilia Fortaleza Rio de Janeiro Curitiba Florianopolis Porto Alegre Sao Paulo Buenos Aires Concepción Number of Projects Neuquén Puerto Montt Lima (Midfield Terminal) El Dorado 1 Cancun T4 Medellin Guadalajara Over 150 projects Calafate 1 Punta Arenas Ushuaia $52.9 Billion USD, of which 40% is accounted by the top 5 airport projects 7

8 The major part of the investments is concentrated within the next 10 years, and half of it is under execution Evolution of investment needs (M. US$) Investment by operator type (% share) Investment sensitivity to GDP (M.US$) Total Investment: 52,928 MUS$ +17.0% 27,613 25,314 19% Public 61, % 52,928 46,086 13,324 27,613 81% Private 11, Investments under execution Rest of investments Low-case -0.5% GDP Base High-case +0.5% GDP Nowadays, more than 60% of the investments identified in the first five-years period is already under execution (NAICM, PTY, Cancun T4, Cusco,..) 8

9 Investment attractiveness: potential upside Airports managed by the private sector ( > 150 airports) upcoming Brazil Regional ASA (Mexico) Asunción (Paraguay) La Aurora (Guatemala) Managua (Nicaragua) Trinidad Tobago Kingston (Jamaica) Johan Pengel (Surinam) Santa Lucia (Caribe) Regionals, Colombia Cuba New engines of growth ( + deregulation international market, LCC..) Commercial revenues ( + revpax) Airport fees increase ( domestic?, connecting market? New operation models & technology more efficient use of the infrastructure: A CDM, Airport Management Center,, Digital Airports, ATM/PBN procedures,.. 9

10 LAC operators are starting to become key stakeholders Operator Pax traffic, Latam 2014 (in Mpax) Airports 35 airports in Argentina, Aeropuertos Andinos del Perú (5), Cusco, Natal, Brasilia, Guayaquil, Galápagos, Montevideo, Punta del Este, etc. Sao Paulo / Guarhulos 13 GAP Airports, Cali and Cartagena de Indias Bogotá and Quito 10 airports: Cancun, Cozumel, Huatulco, Merida, Minantlán, Oaxaca, Tapachula, Veracruz, Villahermosa and San Juan (Puerto Rico) OMA airports (Monterrey and 12 more) and Santiago de Chile 12 airports in México (Guadalajara, Tijuana, Mexicali, Hermosillo, Los Mochis, Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, etc.) and montego Bay (Jamaica) Quito, Belo Horizonte / Confins, San Jose de Costa Rica and Curaçao Santiago de Chile and 6 airports in the Dominican Republic (Santo Domingo, Puerto Plata, Samaná, Barahona, Arroyo Barril and Santo Domingo Norte) Rio de Janeiro / Galeão Lima 13 airports in Mexico (Monterrey, Acapulco, Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, Culiacán, Durango, Mezatlán, Reynosa, Tampico, Torreón, etc.) Quito, San José and Liberia (Costa Rica) LAC operators investing in other concessions/ countries 10

11 BANCO DE DESARROLLO DE AMÉRICA LATINA