Mexico Energy Reform The New Emerging Regulatory Framework

Transcripción

1 Mexico Energy Reform The New Emerging Regulatory Framework Alexis Arthur Energy Policy Associate Institute of the

2 Agenda Round One Renewable Energy Potential & Challenges Community Engagement Questions & comments

3 Round One I Contract Area 2: Sierra Oil & Gas, Talos Energy, Premier Oil Contract Area 7: Sierra Oil & Gas, Talos Energy, Premier Oil

4 Round One II Contract Area 1: ENI International: State operating profit share 83.75% (min ) Contract Area 2: PanAmerican Energy: State operating profit share 70% (min. 35.9) Contract Area 4: Fieldwood

5 Round One - Remaining Auctions Despite hiccups (to be expected), there s a lot to celebrate about Mexico s Round One thus far Round One III - Dec 15 bid (reportedly 80 companies registered, 54 Mexican) Deepwater round the jewel in Mexico s energy crown Non-conventional and Chicontepec 2016

6 Five Year Plan for Hydrocarbon Exploration & Extraction

7 Current Generation GRÁFICO PARTICIPACIÓN EN LA GENERACIÓN N POR TIPO DE TECNOLOGÍA 2014 (Gigawatt-hora, Porcentaje) 1/ 1 Incluye plantas móviles. 2/ Combinaciónn de Tecnologías 3 / Frenos Regenerativos.. Fuente: Elaborado por SENER con datos de CFE y CRE. TABLA GENERACIÓNN BRUTA POR TIPO DE TECNOLOGÍA Generación 013 Generación 2014 Source Tecnología 2013 GWh TCA (GWh) 2014 (GWh) % Growth 1/ Convencional 246, ,936 Hydro 27,958 38, Ciclo combinado Termoeléctrica Wind convencional 4,185 Carboeléctrica 144,182 51,861 6,426 31, ,688 37, ,613 Turbogás Geothermal 2/ Combustión Interna Lecho Solar fluidizado Múltiple 3/ Limpia 6, ,000 7,345 2, ,263 5,059 50,527 6, ,269 4, ,534 61,

8 Projected Generation

9 Wind Potential MAPA POTENCIAL DE RECURSO EÓLICO Fuente: Inventario Nacional de Energías Renovables ( Figura proporcionada por la Subsecretaría de Planeación y Transición Energética. Current generation 6,426 GWh MAPA POTENCIAL DE RECURSO SOLAR Potential 40,000 MW

10 Solar Potential Fuente: Inventario Nacional de Energías Renovables ( Figura proporcionada por la Subsecretaría de Planeación y Transición Energética. MAPA POTENCIAL DE RECURSO SOLAR Fuente: Inventario Nacional de Energías Renovables ( Figura proporcionada por la Subsecretaría de Planeación y Transición Energética. Current installed capacity 66MW MW under construction or initial stage 181 Potential 6,500,000 GWh

11 Geothermal Potential MAPA POTENCIAL DE RECURSO GEOTÉRMICO Fuente: Inventario Nacional de Energías Renovables ( Figura proporcionada por la Subsecretaría de Planeación y Transición Energética. Geothermal MAPA potential could POTENCIAL one day DE RECURSO provide DE over RESIDUOS 70% of URBANOS Mexico s power needs, taking the place held by hydro today New geothermal law hopes to remove some of the hurdles

12 Green Goals Mexico s new energy landscape for clean energy is shaped both by past legislation and global commitments LAERFTE : no greater than 65% generation from fossil fuels by 2024; 60 % by 2035; 50% by 2050 General Climate Change Law: 30% reduction in emissions by 2020; 50% by 2050 Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) - 25% GDG below BAU by 2030, could be increased to 40% pending global agreement Sustainable Development Goals

13 Challenges & Concerns Can clean energy goals co-exist with the energy reform agenda? Are they irreconcilable with efforts to promote hydrocarbons development in Mexico? How can Mexico balance economic growth with low emissions & clean energy commitments? Bankability of renewable energy projects Infrastructure Clean Energy Certificates Incentives

14 Community Engagement An issue across a broad range of activities, from upstream E&P to midstream infrastructure & power projects New framework needs to be tested - indigenous and human rights groups have already raised concerns Social Impact Study: Hydrocarbons Law Article 119; prior consultation with indigenous groups art Question - responsibility of the State or private party? Negotiation & compensation - initial negotiation of 180 days, including a valuation of assets (Ch. IV Hydrocarbons Law; Ch. VIII Electric Industry Law). Landowners royalty payments: can negotiate 0.3-5% for nat gas; 0.2-2% other hydrocarbons Servidumbres - this is the real sticking point as energy exploration and production is deemed in the social interest and public order (art. 96 Hydrocarbons Law; Art 4 Electric Industry Law; Art 4. Geothermal Law)

15 Consulta Previa Consulta Pevia is just one mechanism for resolving disputes with indigenous communities (ILO Convention 169) Mexico Round One: first real test will be land-based contracts (third phase) human rights groups have already raised concerns around lack of access to data and consultation processes - CIDH petition Mexico cases: Cerro de Oro dam; Morales pipeline; Eólica del Sur wind farm Regional success stories and failures - Peru (Tia Maria copper mine) vs Colombia (Repsol s offshore project in the Guajira) Groups not covered by consulta previa processes

16 Thanks! Questions & Comments? articles, op-eds, reports, podcasts, webinars,