Snapshot Retail 3T / Q3 2016

Transcripción

1 Snapshot Retail 3T / Q3 2016

2 SNAPSHOT - RETAIL 3T ECONOMÍA E INDICADORES RETAIL Se prevé que la economía española siga con crecimientos sólidos durante 2016 superiores al 3% FUNDAMENTALES ECONÓMICOS SÓLIDOS INDICADORES (F) PIB, var. Anual (%) 3,2 3,2 Consumo privado, var. Anual (%) 3,1 3,3 Crecimiento de empleo 3,0 2,7 IPC, var. Anual (%) -0,5-0,3 Renta disponible, var. Anual (%) 2,4 4,2 Ventas minoristas, var. Anual (%) 3,6 3,3 Fuentes: Funcas, Oxford Economics Octubre 2016

3 RENTAS PRIME Locales en calle 263 /m 2 /mes Crecimiento Renta 3T T 2016 Centros comerciales 89 /m 2 /mes Crecimiento Renta 3T T 2016 Parques de medianas 16,25 /m 2 /mes Crecimiento Renta 3T T 2016 Escenario de subida de rentas gracias a la recuperación de la economía SNAPSHOT - RETAIL 3T ,3% +1,1% +8,3% Fuente: JLL Octubre 2016 Nota: Las rentas Prime analizadas se basan en locales comerciales de 100 m 2. VOLUMEN DE INVERSIÓN RETAIL Millones de Continúa el apetito inversor durante 3T Fuente: JLL Octubre T 2T 3T 4T En 3T 2016 se completaron 19 transacciones, alcanzando unos 1.261M de inversión, un 40% más que en el mismo período del año pasado. PRINCIPALES OPERACIONES 3T 2016 Activo Precio* (M ) Vendedor Comprador SBA** (m 2 ) Diagonal Mar 493 Northwood Investors Deutsche Bank Asset Management El Corte Ingles 150 El Corte Ingles Monthisa - Gran Via de Vigo 141 Oaktree Capital Management Lar España L'Aljub 110 TH Real Estate TPG Capital & Partners Group El Mirador, Montigala, Atalayas Espacio Torrelodones, Sexta Avenida, Ruta de la Plata *Precio estimado **SBA (m 2 ) del centro comercial 77 Hispania Retail Properties Carmila ,3 Klepierre Activum SG Nota: Este análisis considera todas las inversiones en Centros y Parques Comerciales, Medianas Comerciales, Factory Outlets, Supermercados y Locales en Calle en España. Se excluye cualquier inversión < 5 M.

4 SNAPSHOT - RETAIL 3T RENTABILIDADES PRIME Rentabilidad Prime (%) T ,75 4,50 3, bps Sigue la compresión de yields en T debido a la fuerte demanda inversora Centros Comerciales Parques de medianas Locales en calle Bono a 10 años Fuente: JLL Octubre 2016 A pesar de la compresión de yields, estas son superiores a las ofrecidas en otros mercados maduros como Londres o París, y además el spread respecto al bono es saludable. PRIME CAPITAL VALUES Capital Growth - Locales en calle Crecimiento medio anual ( ) +5,9% Capital Growth - Centros Comerciales Crecimiento medio anual ( ) Buenas perspectivas de crecimiento de Capital Values impulsado por el crecimiento de las rentas MALL +5,6% Fuente: JLL Octubre 2016

5 PRINCIPALES APERTURAS PREVISTAS HASTA 2018 SNAPSHOT - RETAIL 3T m 2 de SBA nueva m 2 de SBA nueva Inauguraciones por debajo de niveles históricos 1. Viladecans The Style Outlets 2. Parque Nevada 3. Sambil 4. Plaza Río SBA m 2 (FASE 1) SBA m 2 Source: JLL, April 2016 SBA m 2 SBA m 2 Neinver Gral. Galerías Comerciales Grupo Sambil SCCE Inauguración 4T 2016 Inauguración 4T 2016 Inauguración 1T 2017 Inauguración 2T Torre Village 6. Open Sky Center 7. Palmas Altas 8. Centro C. Torrecárdenas SBA m 2 SBA m SBA m 2 SBA m 2 Iberebro Co. Phalsbourg Grupo Lar Bogaris Retail Inauguración 3T 2017 Inauguración 2T 2018 Inauguración 4T 2018 Inauguración 2018 Fuente: JLL Octubre 2016

6 SNAPSHOT - RETAIL Q SNAPSHOT RETAIL

7 SNAPSHOT - RETAIL Q THE ECONOMIC AND RETAIL INDICATORS The Spanish economy is expected to continue registering solid growth of over 3% in 2016 SOLID ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS INDICATORS (FY) GDP, YoY change (%) Consumer spending, YoY change (%) Employment Growth CPI, YoY change (%) Disposable income, YoY change (%) Retail sales, YoY change (%) Sources: Funcas, Oxford Economics October 2016

8 SNAPSHOT - RETAIL Q PRIME RENTAL LEVELS High-Street Retail Units 263 /sqm/month Rental Growth Q Q Shopping Centres 89 /sqm/month Rental Growth Q Q Retail Warehouses /sqm/month Rental Growth Q Q Scenario of growing rental levels thanks to the economic recovery +7.3% +1.1% +8.3% Source: JLL October Note: Analysis of prime rental levels based on retail units of 100 sqm. RETAIL INVESTMENT VOLUME 4,500 4,000 3,500 Millons of 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Investor appetite held firm in Q Source: JLL, October 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 During Q3 2016, 19 deals were completed for a total investment volume of 1,261M euros, 40% above the same time last year. MAIN TRANSACTIONS Q Property Price* (Millions ) Seller Buyer ** (sqm) Diagonal Mar 493 Northwood Investors Deutsche Bank Asset Management 87,085 El Corte Ingles 150 El Corte Inglés Monthisa - Gran Via de Vigo 141 Oaktree Capital Management Lar España 41,424 L'Aljub 110 TH Real Estate TPG Capital & Partners Group 43,800 El Mirador, Montigala, Atalayas Espacio Torrelodones, Sexta Avenida, Ruta de la Plata *Estimated price ** (sqm) of the shopping centre 77 Hispania Retail Properties Carmila 29, Klepierre Activum SG 58,000 Note: This analysis encompasses all investments in Shopping Centres, Retail Parks, Big Box Retail, Factory Outlets, Supermarkets and High Street Retail Units in Spain. It does not include investments for under 5 million.

9 PRIME YIELDS Prime Yields (%) bps Yield compression continued in Q thanks to healthy investor demand SNAPSHOT - RETAIL Q Q Shopping Centres Retail Warehouses High Street Retail Units 10 year bond yield Source: JLL October 2016 Despite the yield compression, they are still higher than those offered in other mature markets, such as London and Paris, and the spread is healthy with respect to bonds. PRIME CAPITAL VALUES Capital Growth - High Street Average annual growth ( ) +5.9% Capital Growth - Shopping Centres Robust capital value growth forecasts underpinned by increasing rental levels Average annual growth ( ) +5.6% MALL Source: JLL October 2016

10 SNAPSHOT - RETAIL Q INAUGURATIONS SCHEDULED THROUGH ,000 sqm of new ,500 sqm of new Retail openings below historic levels 1. Viladecans The Style Outlets 2. Parque Nevada 3. Sambil 4. Plaza Río 26,500 sqm (Phase 1) 85,000 sqm Source: JLL, April ,000 sqm 39,000 sqm Neinver Gral. Galerías Comerciales Grupo Sambil SCCE Opening Q Opening Q Opening Q Opening Q Torre Village 6. Open Sky Center 7. Palmas Altas 8. Centro C. Torrecárdenas 63,000 sqm 65,000 sqm 123,000 sqm 61,500 sqm Iberebro Co. Phalsbourg Grupo Lar Bogaris Retail Opening Q Opening Q Opening Q Opening 2018 Source: JLL October 2016

11 RETAIL SERVICES TENANT REPRESENTATION & STRATEGIC LEASING HIGH STREET RENEGOTIATIONS FOOD & BEVERAGE SERVICES MARKETING & RESEARCH DESIGN & BUILD SNAPSHOT - RETAIL Q MALL INVESTMENT OPERATING & ASSET MANAGEMENT SHOPPING CENTRE MANAGEMENT LEASING RETAIL CONSULTANCY PROJECT & DEVELOPMENT SERVICES RETAIL & CAPITAL MARKETS CONTACTS HEAD OF RETAIL BUSINESS SERGIO FERNANDES HEAD OF CAPITAL MARKETS BORJA ORTEGA DE PABLO sergio.fernandes@eu.jll.com borja.ortega@eu.jll.com RESEARCH CONTACTS HEAD OF RESEARCH ELSA GALINDO elsa.galindo@eu.jll.com RESEARCH ANALYST OLGA HORNILLOS olga.hornillos@eu.jll.com RESEARCH ANALYST ITZIAR AGUIRRE itziar.aguirre@eu.jll.com JLL OFFICES IN SPAIN MADRID BARCELONA SEVILLA Pº de la Castellana 79-4ª T: Pº de Gracia 11-4ª esc A T: S. Fco. Javier 20-3ª T: jll.es El Blog elblogdelosanillos.jll.es COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP INC This publication is the sole property of Jones Lang LaSalle IP Inc. and must not be copied reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means either in whole or in part without the prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle IP Inc. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources generally regarded to be reliable. However no representation is made or warranty given in respect of the accuracy of this information. We would like to be informed of any inaccuracies so that we may correct them. Jones Lang LaSalle does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication.