MEXICO POWER MARKET: FUNDAMENTALS AND PERSPECTIVES

Transcripción

1 MEXICO POWER MARKET: FUNDAMENTALS AND PERSPECTIVES Electricity Reform in Mexico 3rd Annual Conference September 27 th, 2017 Paseo de las Palmas 555, 7 th Floor Lomas de Chapultepec, Mexico City, Tel: (+5255)

2 MARKET ARCHETYPES Development Stage Qualities Policy Objectives Nascent Only one or few players Lack of infrastructure/market conditions Develop supply Develop basic infrastructure and market conditions Emergent Infrastructure development already started National market consolidation Assure market sustainability Promote competition and competitive prices In Transition In transition through competition and efficiency More players needed Promote private investment Promote efficiency Mature Fully liberalized market Strong competitive pressure and efficiency Maintain market conditions Characterization criteria Interchange possibilities Price determination (market, a sole player, by regulation ) Space for interchange (limited/unlimited) Substitution possibilities for consumers Market Nature Competitive Market Natural Monopoly Contestable Market Source: McKinsey advisory work for CRE 2

3 Monopoly Market Nature Competitive MEM (MEXICAN WHOLE SALE MARKET) IS IN THE NASCENT FACING TO EMERGENT STAGE Stage of Maturity Nascent Emergent In Transition Mature MEM GEN Basic Supply Qualif. Supply TRA DIS but notice that the Energy Reform has only a few years that born to life. 3

4 INTEREST OF PARTICIPANTS DEVELOPING AT GRADUAL BUT FIRM PACE According to CRE and Cenace, at this moment MEM accounts for 27 (offer side) and 6 (demand side) active participants The first Generation Permit under the new regime ( Ley de la Industria Eléctrica ) was granted by the CRE on May 2015 Since then, 445 new permits on this modality had been issued That accounts for an important 34% of all 1,317 permits granted by the CRE since the 90 2 only in 2 years After May 2015, near new 50 permits under Legado Regime were granted people still wanted to advantage form the benefits on that scheme Generators (under new Law) Basic Service Suppliers With CRE s permit / authorization / registry With Market Participant Contract before Cenace Already operating Qualified Suppliers Other Marketers Qualified Users Source: CRE and Cenece evidently, the interest is growing. 4

5 Energy Reform implementation Both, electric and hydrocarbon sectors CAUTIOUS ENTRANCE OF NEW PARTICIPANTS BECAUSE THE ENERGY REFORM IS A COMPLEX PROCESS 1 Constitutional Decree 3 Articles 21 Transition arts. 9 New Laws 12 Modifies articles 1941 New articles 203 Transition arts. 12 New Bylaws Texto 14falso, Modified texto Bylaws falso, 13 texto Estatutos falso 2519 Articles 270 Transition articles >100 Instruments > 5000 Provisions Pending Regulation: Hydrocarbons Gas Distribution Rates Standards ASEA Electricity FTR T&D Rates Some market manuals 5

6 INDUSTRIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL ORGANIZATION Grant generation permits Regulates Basic Supply Grant Qualified Supply permits Register last resource suppliers, other marketers, and qualified users Regulates Transmission & Distribution Establish Market Rules, Operative Provisions, Market Manuals Defines Energy Policy on the Electric Sector 6

7 MEM ORGANIZATION CRITERIOS DE OPERACIÓN DEL SEN Confiabilidad y calidad del servicio Criterios de planeación de la red Disposiciones de redes inteligentes y generación distribuida PROGRAMA DE PLANIFICACIÓN Y EXPANSIÓN DE LA RED SENER DISPOSICIONES GENERALES DE TARIFAS CONDICIONES GENERALES DE PRESTACIÓN DEL SERVICIO PÚBLICO DE T&D DE ENERGÍA ELÉCTRICA DISPOSICIONES COMERCIALES Centrales eléctricas Generadores Transmisión Distribución CRITERIOS DE INTERCONEXIÓN Solicitud de IC Generador Estudios de IC CENACE Garantías de IC Aprueba CRE Contrato de IC Formato CRE CÓDIGO DE RED DISPOSICIONES TÉCNICAS CONVENIOS DE PRESTACIÓN Y FACTURACIÓN DEL SERVICIO MEM SSB CRITERIOS DE CONEXIÓN CONDICIONES GENERALES DE PRESTACIÓN DEL SUMINISTRO ELÉCTRICO SSC / SUR Servicio Básico CONTRATO TARIFAS REGULADAS Servicio Calificado CONTRATO UB UC REGLAS DEL MERCADO Bases del mercado, manuales de prácticas, guías operativas, criterios y procedimientos de operación SUBASTAS Energía Capacidad CEL C(NS) REGISTRO CONTRATO DE PARTICIPACIÓN EN EL MERCADO 7

8 PEOPLE IS LEARNING TO ACCEPT MARKET BEHAVIOR Local Marginal Prices. Day Ahead Market. Distributed Nodes MX$/MWh Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 GUADALAJARA MONTERREY SAN LUIS POTOSI VDM CENTRO VERACRUZ PROMEDIO Tarifa Eléctrica Ind. Source: Cenece and SIE-Sener 8

9 THE PERSPECTIVE: THE MARKET IS GROWING, AND INTERESTING OPPORTUNITIES ARISE growing consumption at 2.4% annual rate Electric Compsumption TWh Residencial 26% Electric Compsumption TWh Residencial 27% According to Sener, It is expected a continuous growing between 2.8% and 4.1% until 2030 Escenario Bajo Planeación Alto Industrial 58% Comercial 7% Industrial 57% Comercial 7% TCMA (%) Source: Sener Prospectiva/PRODESEN Agrícola 5% Servicios 4% Servicios 4% Agrícola 5% 9

10 THE PERSPECTIVE: THE MARKET IS GROWING, AND INTERESTING OPPORTUNITIES ARISE Eólica 1% Geotérmica 1% Nucleoeléctri ca 3% Carboeléctric a Dual 10% 0% Combustión interna 1% Instaled Capacity, ,751 GW Hidroeléctrica 22% Turbogas 5% Vapor 20% Fotovoltaica 0% Ciclo combinado 37% According to Sener s Prospectiva , 57.1 GW of new installed capacity will be added. Unless combined cycle, which accounts for 36% of the total increase, no other fossil fuel technologies will be promoted Clean sources will attract the main focus Geotérmica y Bioenergía 2% Nucleoeléctrica 7% Aditional Capacity by ,122 MW Eólica 21% Cogeneración Eficiente 12% Ciclo combinado 36% Hidroeléctrica 8% Solar, Fotovoltáica y Termosolar 12% TC, CI, TG, Carboelétrica 2% 10

11 NATURAL GAS WILL FUEL THE ELECTRIC SECTOR Natural Gas Balance mmcf/d Electric sector mainly driven by natural gas generation In , 4.6% average growing of natural gas demand by electric sector (vs. 2.3% national demand) Imports will have to cope with increase in demand (official data: near 3% average growing in ) Demand eléctric sector Demand other sectors National supply Imports Source: Sener. Sistema de Información Energética 11

12 CLEAN SOURCES ALSO WILL HAVE A MAIN FOCUS Mexico s Clean Energy Potential Technology Potential MW Bioenergy 1,500 Efficient Cogeneration 7,045 Wind 12,000 Geothermic 1,932 Hydroelectric 8,763 Nuclear 1,360 Solar 8,000 Source: Sener. Prospectiva

13 Thank You (+52 55) Cel ( ) Álvaro Efraín Téllez Rangel Socio Fundador Paseo de las Palmas 555, 7º Piso Lomas de Chapultepec Ciudad de México,