Repercusión del cambio climático en la agricultura. José Luis Araus

Transcripción

1 Repercusión del cambio climático en la agricultura José Luis Araus

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3 World-wide average yield (tons ha -1 ) Reto global Climate change Water, nutrient & energy scarcity Diseases Agronomy Breeding Projected demand by 2050 (FAO) Linear extrapolations of current trends Potential effect of climatechange-induced heat stress on today s cultivars (intermediate CO 2 emission scenario) Year Fuente: FAO y CIMMYT

4 World-wide average yield (tons ha -1 ) Reto global Climate change Water, nutrient & energy scarcity Diseases Agronomy Breeding Projected demand by 2050 (FAO) Linear extrapolations of current trends Cómo aumentar los rendimientos de los cultivos alrededor del 50% con la misma o menos área disponible, los efectos negativos del cambio climático y aumentos progresivos en el coste del agua, fertilizantes, otros insumos y mano de obra? Potential effect of climatechange-induced heat stress on today s cultivars (intermediate CO 2 emission scenario) Year Fuente: FAO y CIMMYT

5 Trends in the annual precipitations ( ) North: 1-2% increase/ decade. South : <1% decrease/ decade Minor changes in Central Europe (Olesen y Bindi, 2002)

6 Variation in annual precipitation: vs

7 Multi-Model Averages and Assessed Ranges for Surface Warming Figure SPM.5. Solid lines are multi-model global averages of surface warming (relative to ) for the scenarios A2, A1B and B1, shown as continuations of the 20th century simulations. Shading denotes the ±1 standard deviation range of individual model annual averages. The orange line is for the experiment where concentrations were held constant at year 2000 values. The grey bars at right indicate the best estimate (solid line within each bar) and the likely range assessed for the six SRES marker scenarios. The assessment of the best estimate and likely ranges in the grey bars includes the AOGCMs in the left part of the figure, as well as results from a hierarchy of independent models and observational constraints. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007 (AR4)

8 EXTREME HEAT EVENTS (Van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009) Increase in temperature in Europe is ºC / decade, particularly in the South and North East. (Van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009)

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10 Ricardo Machado Trigo 2016

11 Heat stress

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13 Lobell and Gourdji 2012 Plant Physiol.

14 TEMPERATURE AND PLANT PHENOLOGY

15 CO 2 Temperatura Aumento de la fotosíntesis y eficiencia en el uso del agua? Interacción Planta - insecto? Plagas y enfermedades Sequía Salinidad Asimilación de nitrógeno Cambios fenológicos Desajuste polinización Disminución del néctar Número de generaciones Tasa de desarrollo y potencial reproductivo Mayor cociente C:N favorece la defoliación Bloom, 2015 DeLucia, 2012 DeLucia, 2012 Gustavo Cáceres, Alba Cotado y Adrian Gracia

16 Pest and diseases

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19 Araus and Cairns 2014 Crop breeding pillars

20 Plant traits that may be important for climate change adaptation include Capacity to resist/tolerate high temperatures and droughts Fire resistance and tolerance, especially for trees Resistance / tolerance to pests and diseases Capacity to utilize scarce and poor quality soil Tolerance to lower water quality (specially for increased salinity) Phenotypic plasticity Fecundity and fertility rates

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22 RGB Thermal Multispectral

23 Global Yield impacts (%) compared to baseline scenario by technology and crop, Source: Rosegrant et al., IFPRI 2014

24 Conclusiones El cambio climático ya está afectando la productividad y calidad de los cultivos El aumento en las temperaturas es el principal factor que afecta a los cultivos Todo reto comporta nuevas oportunidades La mejora y la agronomía pueden paliar dichos efectos

25 Muchas gracias Moltes gràcies

26 PROYECCIONES DEL RENDIMIENTO Climate change is projected to undermine food security Model Pegasus impacts of mean climate change, extreme temperatures around crop anthesis (HSA), and direct CO 2 fertilization effects (Deryng, 2014)

27 YIELD FORECASTINGS CO 2 fertilitation effects are minimal C4 crops (Deryng, 2014)

28 YIELD FORECASTING Benefits from higher CO 2 C3 crops (Deryng, 2014)