LA INFRAESTRUCTURA LOGÍSTICA Y DE TRANSPORTE. El mundo marídmo y la gobernanza portuaria del S. XXI EN EL MUNDO Y LA ARTICULACIÓN DE COLOMBIA

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1 LA INFRAESTRUCTURA LOGÍSTICA Y DE TRANSPORTE EN EL MUNDO Y LA ARTICULACIÓN DE COLOMBIA El mundo marídmo y la gobernanza portuaria del S. XXI Ricardo J. Sánchez División de Recursos Naturales e Infraestructura CEPAL Naciones Unidas

2 Economic context for the port business ü Uncertainty ü Less dynamism ü Throughput, declining ü More requirements (ph, ec, tech) ü Pressures, pressures, pressures ü Some structural condidons ü Social condidons HOWEVER Good prospects for long term 2

3 currently, uncertainty, but: High Global (billion) Global (in trillion USD) Consuming class: daily disposable income is equal or greater $10, below consuming class, less $10; incomes adjusted for purchasing- power parity developed markets emerging markets non- consuming class consuming class 3,4 3,7 4,4 2,6 4,0 1,2 3,0 2,2 2,8 0,9 1,2 2,4 4, Projected data 2025: EsDmate based on 2010 private- consumpdon share of GDP / country and GDP esdmates for 2010 and 2025, assumes private consumpdon will remain constant. 3

4 of worldwide trade volumes november 2014 by region (in percentage change) 40,0% 35,0% 30,0% 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% - 5,0% - 10,0% 2010/2009 m1 2010/2009 m2 2010/2009 m3 2010/2009 m4 2010/2009 m5 2010/2009 m6 2010/2009 m7 2010/2009 m8 2010/2009 m9 2010/2009 m /2009 m /2009 m /2010 m1 2011/2010 m2 2011/2010 m3 2011/2010 m4 2011/2010 m5 2011/2010 m6 2011/2010 m7 2011/2010 m8 2011/2010 m9 2011/2010 m /2010 m /2010 m /2011 m1 2012/2011 m2 2012/2011 m3 2012/2011 m4 2012/2011 m5 2012/2011 m6 2012/2011 m7 2012/2011 m8 2012/2011 m9 2012/2011 m /2011 m /2011 m /2012 m1 2013/2012 m2 2013/2012 m3 2013/2012 m4 2013/2012 m5 2013/2012 m6 2013/2012 m7 2013/2012 m8 2013/2012 m9 2013/2012 m /2012 m /2012 m /2013 m1 2014/2013 m2 2014/2013 m3 2014/2013 m4 2014/2013 m5 2014/2013 m6 2014/2013 m7 2014/2013 m8 2014/2013 m9 2014/2013 m /2013 m11 World exports United States exports Euro Area exports LaDn America exports LaDn America imports Emerging Asia exports Emerging Asia imports 4

5 Global and LAC: GDP & Trade vs. Container throu. 5

6 Global and LAC: GDP & Trade vs. Container throu. 6

7 Port throughput, GDP and trade annual

8 transport and the crisis: main facts of 2014 ü Is it the end of the crisis? a challenging macroeconomic environment but some posidve lights, ü bunker prices: a short fresh breath, ü a chronic overcapacity in the key east- west trade arteries which disturbs the supply- demand equilibrium, ü the cascading effects of this overcapacity which could, in effect, jeopardise the profitability of other trade lanes, ü a overhang of orders that is due to be delivered and, may yet, present the biggest threat to all freight rate recovery efforts. ü bemer profits for a set of companies (as an industry average) ü process of mergers, acquisidons and alliances will be strengthened. 8

9 LAC: Diagnosis and major infrastructure challenges Physical restraint & shortage => investments and funding High dispersion and of views in public & private Failures and regulatory / ins@tu@onal barriers Weakness or absence of sustainability criteria 9

10 America: infrastructure investment and GDP growth (le] axis) and total GFCF (right axis), * Crecimiento anual PIB FBKF total de la economía (% PIB) Inversión total en infraestructura (% PIB) Inversión pública en infraestructura (% PIB) Inversión privada en infraestructura (% PIB) Source: Unidad de Servicios de Infraestructura de la División de Recursos Naturales e Infraestructura de CEPAL

11 America: infrastructure investment by sector, *, (percentage of GDP) (1987) 3.5% 3.71 (2009) % 2.2% 1.2% 1.0% 2.7% 1.6% 1.1% % Inversión total Inversión pública Inversión privada Source: Unidad de Servicios de Infraestructura de la División de Recursos Naturales e Infraestructura de CEPAL. 11

12 of supply and demand feeds the transport infrastructure gap (base year 1990=100) Source: Infrastructure Services Unit on their own preliminaries data, from Calderón & Servén (2010) CEPAL (2011) and ongoing joint studies with CAF and BID & World Trade Monitor. Preliminary estimation. Notes: * Countries are Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico y Peru. Since 2003, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Panamá y Paraguay are included as well. ** Data in the last two years are a projection, using the average in the last ten years. 12

13 infrastructure governance increasin g energy costs carbon footprint human capital and resource manageme nt sustainability of infrastructure logis@cs and mobility efficiency and competitiven ess long term economic efficiency social costs (accidents, security) investment into energy infrastructur e 13

14 strategy and planning in America Infrastructure, transport and logisdcs, are mutually dependent and therefore produce complex issues require holisdc analysis and integrated soludons. Globalized and compeddve markets, require condnued improvements in the quality of the products and price, hence the importance of logisdcs planning. LogisDcs strategies and planning in pardcular, has been absent from public policy. Most countries sdll develop transport policies focus in one mode and not in terms of the overall compeddveness, efficiency and applying sustainability criteria Very few countries monitor their progress and advances in logisdcs performance 14

15 What to think? What to do? 15

16 our current discussions WHAT PORT FOR THE FUTURE? FROM MAINPORTS TO PORTS AS NODES OF LOGISTICS NETWORKS Paul Drewe & Ben Janssen Delft University of Technology Delft, The Netherlands

17 Port governance: past and future Governance 1.0 Governance 2.0 Old Dev. Tool Landlord Goals Instruments ACOMPLISHMENTS New landlord? Goals Instruments Public policies New policies, & governance 17

18 Governance 1.0 Governance 2.0 Previews governance models Tool Landlord New Landlord? Public ports Extreme modal vision Reducing tax burden of ports Incorporate of private equity Increase of the compeddon Improve the compeddveness of foreign trade CentralizaDon decentralizadon Containers Old public ports + new Integrated and systemic vision RaDonalizaDon Private and public capital Social efficiency CompeDDveness and producdvity DecentralizaDon centralizadon All loads New institutional New legal instruments New associative forms NEW GOVERNANCE 18

19 Port Governance % 8 años % 13 años Millions of Containers (TEUS) % 460% Berth Length ( 000 m) % 68% STS Crane % 222% Berth produc@vity (TEU/m) % 233% Mov x ship (Box/hr) % 136% Source: Octavio Doerr, from different surveys and Maritime and Logistics Profile 2014, ECLAC 19

20 LAC: Diagnosis and major infrastructure challenges Physical restraint & shortage => investments and funding High dispersion and of views in public & private Failures and regulatory / ins@tu@onal barriers Weakness or absence of sustainability criteria 20

21 Diagnosis and major infrastructure challenges in LAC High dispersion and of views in public BUT 21

22 Final 22

23 General port and challenges! The change from "volume/tonnage thinking" to "logistics/chain and value-added thinking" "Volume thinking" neglects the logistic revolution, in particular the rise of product channel logistics or business logistics. What may be referred to as "logistic thinking" has a double impact on the conventional positioning of ports. The emphasis shifts from volumes to value added and from physical to logistic accessibility. (Paul Drewe) To shift from physical to logistic accessibility means to change to a dedicated and controlled logistics accessibility. What we need? What we have? 23

24 El desafío de mejor insertarse en el mundo comienza por mejor integrarse interiormente Una para un modelo de desarrollo del S. XXI? O para exportar commodities? Repensar el desarrollo: repensar la infraestructura, la logística, la energía, las comunicaciones.. Algunas reflexiones para Colombia! Comercio internacional vs. comercio interior? No más pensamiento dicotómico! Pensar en el mundo mundial requiere pensar en grande, y no en la piedra una nueva gobernanza Qué infraestructura para la logística y la accesibilidad tenemos? Repensar el territorio: el país y el mundo mundial Políticas nacionales y regionales, integradas y sostenibles, de logística y 24

25 Ricardo J. Sánchez Senior Economic Affairs Officer Thanks a lot!!! Officer-in-Charge Natural Resources and Infrastructure Division United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Ricardo.SANCHEZ@ECLAC.org Client Logo 25