S&P 500 and VIX Index

Transcripción

1 El Futuro Económico de América Latina: Hecho en China? Ciudad de de febrero del 2012 Oficina del Economista Jefe América Latina y el Caribe Banco Mundial 1

2 El entorno global Turbulencia financiera coyuntural 2

3 Coyuntura global marcada por fragilidad y volatilidad financiera 90 S&P 500 and VIX Index VIX Index S&P500 (rhs) VIX Index S&P Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Sources: Bloomberg. 3

4 El epicentro europeo La reversión de las fortunas Argentina Venezuela Ukrain Kazakhastan Tukey Phillipines Indonesia Colombia Panama Peru Vietnam Brazil Russia Romania South Africa Bulgaria Mexico Croatia Thailand Hungary Korea Malaysia Chile Poland Italy Greece Ireland Slovak Rep Portugal Spain Belgium France Germany Sweden Global Sovereign CDS 31-Dec-2007, in basis points Greece Portugal Venezuela Ukraine Argentina Ireland Hungary avg Croatia Italy Romania Spain Bulgaria Slovak Rep Turkey Kazakhastan Poland Belgium Russia Thailand South Africa Indonesia France Phillipines Peru Korea Brazil Mexico Colombia Malaysia Panama Chile Germany Sweden Global Sovereign CDS Feb-2012, in basis points Notes: In panel A, for Ireland we use the first CDS quote available (August 2008). Sources: Bloomberg. 4

5 El epicentro europeo Trauma y drama cuánto más por venir? CDS (5 years) in Europe In Basis Points Ireland+Greece+Portugal France UK Spain Italy Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Notes: In panel A, for Ireland we use the first CDS quote available (August 2008). Sources: Bloomberg. 5

6 El epicentro europeo 1 moneda, 17 deudas soberanas 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Spreads Over German Bonds In % Official Launch of the Euro Portugal Greece Ireland France Italy Spain 0% -5% Mar-93 Apr-94 May-95 Jun-96 Jul-97 Aug-98 Sep-99 Oct-00 Nov-01 Jan-03 Feb-04 Mar-05 Apr-06 May-07 Jun-08 Jul-09 Aug-10 Sep-11 Source: Bloomberg 6

7 El epicentro europeo Heterogeneidad estructural y la trampa CDM 200 Unit Labor Costs in Europe Index base 100 = q1- Germany Italy Portugal Greece France Spain 20.0% 15.0% Debt Sustainability in Europe Theoretical vs Actual Primary Balance Actual Theoretical % Q1- Q3- Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1- Q3- Q % of GDP 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Greece France Ireland Portugal Italy Spain Source: EuroStats and Bloomberg. For panel B, the theoretical primary balances is calculated using the last observation of the nominal interests rates on 10ys bonds, and assuming a long term inflation and growth of 1.5% and 2%, respectively. 7

8 El epicentro estadounidence Débil recuperación económica: Keynes vs. Fischer 135 US Economic Activity GDP Index base 100 = Iq trend Industrial Production and ISM Index Industrial Production (YoY %) 10.0% 5.0% 8 Index base 100 = Iq ISM Index 10 0 Sources: Consensus Forecasts (Feb-2012)and Bloomberg. 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 ISM Index Industrial Production (YoY) Mar-03 Dec-03 Sep-04 Jun-05 Mar-06 Dec-06 Sep-07 Jun-08 Mar-09 Dec-09 Sep-10 Jun-11 Mar-12 Industrial Production

9 El epicentro estadounidence Menor calificación crediticia pero el lugar de refugio Gold and US T % % 3.0% USD Percent % Yen UK Pound Euro Real Foreign Currencies Per Dollar Index base 100 = 1-Jan Gold 2.0% US T % 95 Source: Bloomberg 9 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov Dec-11 Dec-11 Jan Dec-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12

10 El entorno global Multipolaridad económica 10

11 Desacoplamiento cíclico centro vs. periferia Crisis World Industrial Production Index Apr-08 = 100 Advanced Economies Emerging Economies % 80% Contribution to World Economic GDP as a % of World GDP increase (PPP) 8% 11% 8% 8% 7% 8% 80 Jan-06 Aug-06 Mar-07 Oct-07 May-08 Dec-08 Jul-09 Feb-10 Sep-10 Apr-11 60% 34% 44% 57% 40% 20% 51% 38% 27% 0% Others Other Advanced Economies EM - 20 Euro (15)+US+Japan+Canada+UK Note: The group of developed countries refers to OECD countries excluding Turkey, Mexico, Republic of Korea, and Central European countries. Source: CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis). 11

12 Cambios tectónicos en la distribución de la actividad económica global Share of World GDP 100% 90% 80% 70% Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies China 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: IMF WEO (September 2011) 12

13 Implicaciones para América Latina 13

14 Crecimiento reciente y pronósticos para el % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Real GDP Growth Forecasts Around the World Annual Real GDP Growth Rate, Weighted Averages 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, % 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% Actual Growth and Growth Forecast: LAC Countries Weighted Averages for LAC 2011e 2012f 0% 0 0.0% Jamaica El Salvador Trin. & Tob. Nicaragua Mexico Brazil LAC Argentina Costa Rica Bolivia Ecuador Paraguay Venezuela Chile Uruguay Colombia Dom. Rep. Peru Panama % Growth Rate GDP per capita PPP High South Europe & Income Africa Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean East Asian Tigers India China GDP per capita PPP () 5.5% LAC 2012 GDP Growth Forecasts Evolution In % 5.0% LAC (weighted average) 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 14 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Sources: Consensus Forecast (Feb- 2012), and IMF WEO (September 2011)

15 Desigual desempeño económico en la región La heterogeneidad ha ido mutando en la última década Low-Growth Countries GDP Index 2002=100 Intermediate-Growth Countries GDP Index 2002= Actual 180 Actual Trend Trend GDP Index 2002=100 High-Growth Countries GDP Index 2002= Actual Trend Actual Trend Sources: Potential GPD is computed as the average rate of growth between 2007 and Simple averages are used to construct the composite. The categorization of each group is as follow: Slow-growth are those countries that showed a less than 3.5% in their GDP real growth rate; Medium-growth are those between 3.5% and 10%: High-growth are those with 10% or more. WEO (September 2011). 15

16 Desigual desempeño económico Importa menos la ubicación que la conexión (Geometric) Mean growth Simple Average (Geometric) Mean growth Simple Average (Geometric) Mean growth Simple Average Min Max Low growth (13) 4.9% -1.6% 1.3% -0.1% 4.3% Medium growth (7) 4.5% 1.7% 3.4% 2.6% 4.4% 4.5% 3.6% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% High growth (12) 5.9% 4.5% 6.0% 4.5% 8.7% LAC (all countries) 4.8% 1.1% 3.5% -0.1% 8.7% Low growth: Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Dominica, El Salvador, Grenada, Jamaica, Mexico, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela Intermediate growth: Belize, Costa Rica, Ecuador,, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua High growth: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname and Uruguay Sources: World Bank s World Development Indicators WDI (December ), IMF's World Economic Outlook WEO (April 2011), and Consensus Forecasts (June 2011) Latest available forecasts. Potential GDP is calculated computing the annual average real growth rate for the to 2007 GDP. Weighted averages (2007 Nominal GDP in USD Billions). 16

17 La creciente pero desigual conexión con China Output Co-Movement Between LAC and China 20 years rolling correlation of the Real GDP Growth Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Argentina Panama Dom. Rep. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Main Trade Partners by Exports 2009 % of Total Exports % 40% 30% 20% 10% % Belize Bahamas St.Vinc.& Grenada El Salvador Nicaragua Panama Barbados Paraguay Dominica Trin.&Tob. Honduras Suriname Guyana Jamaica Dom. Rep. Mexico Colombia Bolivia Ecuador Argentina Venezuela Uruguay Costa Rica Brazil Peru Chile 17 World UE15 LAC USA CHN

18 está fuertemente mediatizada por commodities Commodity Prices Oil WTI in Current US$, Wheat, Copper and Soybean: Index base Jan-05= Peru Chile Ecuador Argentina LAC Colombia Uruguay Mexico Brazil Cumulative Change in Terms of Trade Monthly Data, Avg. 2002Q1 vs. Avg. 2011Q1 Wheat, Copper and Soybean, Index 01-Jan-05=100 Oil WTI, Current US$ Jamaica Panama Costa Rica Honduras -20% 10% 40% 70% 100% 130% Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan Terms of Trade Px/Pm Index 2005 = LAC 6 Average Feb-92 Dec-92 Oct-93 Aug-94 Jun-95 Apr-96 Feb-97 Dec-97 Oct-98 Aug-99 Jun-00 Apr-01 Feb-02 Dec-02 Oct-03 Aug-04 Jun-05 Apr-06 Feb-07 Dec-07 Oct-08 Aug-09 Jun-10 Apr-11 Feb-12 18

19 En el corto plazo el foco está en la vulnerabilidad El sistema inmunológico macro de LAC ha mejorado Exchange Rate and Interest Rate in Exchange Rate and Interest Rate in 9 50% 8.6 8% % 40% 35% 30% % 6% % 20% Series1 Series2 15% 10% % Nominal Exchange Rate 4% Interest Rate 5% 5 0% 6.8 3% 19 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan Interest Rates in LAC Monetary Policy Rates Inflation-Targeting LAC Countries Fed Funds Target Brazil Chile Colombia Peru Mexico Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Jan-97 Jun-97 Nov-97 Apr-98 Sep-98 Feb-99 Jul-99 Dec-99 May-00 Oct-00 Mar-01 Aug-01 Jan-02 Jun-02 Nov-02 Apr-03 Sep-03 Feb-04 Jul-04 Dec-04 May-05 Oct-05 Mar-06 Aug Exchange Rate Flexibility Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff Index Colombia Brazil Chile Mexico Peru Notes: The Exchange Rate Flexibility Index is between 1 (totally rigid exchange rate regime) and 13 (freely floating exchange regime.

20 El foco de largo plazo es crecimiento con equidad Cómo salir de los 100 años de soledad en el crecimiento? 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1900 Gold Standard Period GDP Per Capita of Relative to the US Selected Regions, Weighted Averages 1920 Interwar Period ImportSubstitution Lost Washington Decade Consensus LAC EAP: High Income Washington Dissensus 2005 Average TFP growth per year Avg Avg Avg Avg Avg Avg LAC 7 1.9% 0.4% -2.0% 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% Non - LAC 7 1.1% 0.5% -2.0% 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% Costa Rica 2.2% -1.3% -2.6% 0.2% 0.2% -0.3% Dominican Republic 0.1% 0.2% -0.8% 2.3% 1.7% 0.7% El Salvador 0.9% -1.6% -1.9% 0.5% 0.0% -0.4% 2.1% 1.2% -1.7% 0.4% -0.6% 0.3% Honduras 0.3% 1.0% -1.3% -2.7% 1.2% -0.3% Nicaragua 2.2% -1.4% -3.8% -1.4% -1.3% -1.1% Trinidad &Tobago 3.0% -1.3% -3.0% 3.3% 8.1% 2.0% EAP 3.1% 2.1% 2.3% 1.3% 2.0% 2.2% China -0.5% 0.9% 1.6% 3.4% 6.2% 2.3% United States 0.9% -0.4% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% Japan 6.7% 1.1% 1.4% -0.7% 0.9% 1.9% 20

21 está entre los países de resago estable Diverging Non-Converging 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 0% 10% 0% Colombia El Salvador Bolivia Paraguay Venezuela Argentina Uruguay 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% Semi-Converging Fluctuating 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% Chile Dominican Republic Mexico Brazil Notes: Maddison ( ) was used from 1900 to 2006 and Real Per Capita GDP growth from WDI was used to calculate the levels from 2006 to. Source: LCRCE Staff calculations based on Maddison (2007, 2009) and WDI. 21

22 Las cortapisas al crecimiento de largo plazo Ahorro e inversión bajas % of GDP 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% LAC-7 EAP Gross Domestic Savings Decade Average % of GDP 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% LAC-7 EAP Investment Decade Average 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 1960's 1970's 1980's 's 's 0% 1960's 1970's 1980's 's 's Notes: In Panel A, EAP includes Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea Rep., Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. In Panel B, EAP includes Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea Rep., Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. Both in Panel A and B, LAC-7 includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela. Sources: WDI, Penn World Tables, and The International Energy Agency (IEA). 22

23 En Insuficientes recursos para bienes públicos Tax revenues by type of taxes % GDP Direct tax revenues Indirect tax revenues Social contributions Other taxes Venezuela Honduras Chile USA Argentina Brasil OECD Suecia 23

24 Las cortapisas al crecimiento de largo plazo Brechas de infraestructura Electricity Installed Capacity In thousands of KW per 1000 people, simple averages Road Density In thousands of KM per 1000 people, simple average EAP LAC7 + URY LAC7 + URY (available data)

25 Las cortapisas al crecimiento de largo plazo Brechas institucionales 3 Control of Corruption 2.5 Rule of Law Log of GDP per capita PPP in Log of GDP per capita PPP in 2.5 Regulatory Quality 2.5 Government Effectiveness Log of GDP per capita PPP in Log of GDP per capita PPP in Source: D. Kaufmann, A. Kraay, and M. Mastruzzi 2003: G 25

26 Las cortapisas al crecimiento de largo plazo Brechas en capital humano 14.2 LAC East Asian Tigers No School Primary Secondary Tertiary LAC East Asian Tigers No School Primary Secondary Tertiary Source: Author s calculation based on Household datasets and Barro-Lee () 26

27 Gracias 27

28 Tipo de cambio efectivo: nominal y real Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Real Effective Exchange Rates Index Jan-06= Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Nominal Effective Exchange Rates Index Jan-2006 = Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Source: World Bank and IFS.