Las Blue Chips de Latinoamérica

Transcripción

1 Las Blue Chips de Latinoamérica Cristián Moreno Julio

2 Por qué Hablar de las Blue Chips? Las Blue Chips son las grandes empresas de un Mercado de Capitales Un Mercado de Capitales desarrollado está asociado a niveles elevados de PIB per cápita 50,000 45,000 40,000 EEUU PIB per Capita 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Argentina Colombia Vietnam México Turquía Indonesia Pakistan Polonia Portugal Tailandia Perú España Chile Brazil Japón Corea Canadá Francia Patrimonio Bursátil/PIB Reino Unido Australia 2

3 La Multiplicación de las Blue Chips Latam v/s Mcdos Emergentes Billion Dollar Babies ene-02 oct-02 ago-03 jun-04 abr-05 feb-06 dic-06 Mundial América Latina Mdos. Emergentes Jul-07 3

4 También se puede ver en las Top 10 Top 10 Julio 2002 Top 10 Julio 2007 Telmex 20,029 Petrobras 130,904 Petrobras 18,785 America Movil 112,188 Walmex 11,627 CVRD 111,735 CVRD 10,400 Itau 55,405 America Movil 8,796 Bradesco 50,378 Televisa 8,157 AmBev 44,805 Grupo Modelo 7,550 Telmex 37,605 Cemex 7,519 Banco do Brasil 36,510 AmBev 5,538 Walmex 32,769 Telesp Operac 5,379 Tenaris 29,417 4

5 Visión General de las Blue Chips Latinoamericanas Países en que se concentran Sectores más relevantes Estrategias PERU 5

6 Países Brazil es el mercado más importante, seguido de México Argentina 4% Andinos 7% PERU Mexico 27% Brazil 51% Chile 11% 6

7 Sectores Los cuatro principales son : Minería, Telecomunicaciones, Petróleo y Servicios Financieros, que explican un 65.8% de la capitalización bursátil de Latinoamérica Comercio 7.5% Servicios Financieros 15.3% Inmobiliario Aerolíneas/Transporte 1.3% 3.1% PERU Bebidas y Alimentos 8.5% Cemento y Construcción 4.0% Eléctricas 6.8% Forestal 2.6% Petróleo/Gas/Químico s 11.7% Acero/Minería 19.6% Telecomunicaciones/ Media 19.6% 7

8 Estrategias y Mercados: Globales, Regionales y Locales Gran parte de las empresas siguen estrategias locales Las empresas de estrategia global son productoras de commodities Estrategias regionales son más escasas Por Capitalización Bursátil Por Número de Compañías Players Locales 47.3% Players Globales 30.7% Players Regionales 22.0% Players Locales 62.1% Players Globales 28.6% Players Regionales 9.4% 8

9 Estrategia y Mercado: Por países Brazil, Argentina y los países andinos se saltan la región México y Chile: Estrategias regionales 100% 90% 80% 41.3% 13.4% 2.4% 25.0% 26.8% 70% 60% 66.6% 31.7% 50% 40% 30% 58.7% 84.2% 55.4% 6.7% 20% 26.7% 43.3% 10% 0% 17.8% Andinos Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico Globales Regionales Locales 9

10 Mayores Empresas: Petrobras, AMX y CVRD Participación de la Capitalización Bursátil Petrobras 7.6% America Movil 6.5% CVRD 6.5% Resto de Latinoamérica 79.5% 10 Fuente: Bloomberg y Santander Investment.

11 Petrobras Petrobras es una compañía integrada de petróleo y gas, responsable de todas las actividades relacionadas a los hidrocarburos en Brazil. Las operaciones de la empresa incluyen tanto la exploración y producción, refinamiento, transporte, marketing, gas y energía, así como también crecientes operaciones internacionales Historia Creada en 1954 Se lista en el NYSE en 2000 Razones del Éxito Acceso a los recursos naturales Sólida base de reservas Crecimiento producción Tecnología superior de exploración bajo el agua Situación Actual Ventas EBITDA ,831 13, ,378 20, ,587 23,881 Crecimiento de Producción de Petroleo 2007E Gazprom 1.0% Petrochina 2.0% Cnoc 3.0% Sinopec 4.0% Exxon Mobil 4.0% Lukoil 4.5% BP 4.5% Royal Dutch Shell 4.5% Petrobras (SI Estimate) 5.0% Total 6.0% Conoco 6.0% Chevron 7.0% Rosneft 7.0% Petrobras Target 8.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0 % 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0 % 7.0 % 8.0% 9.0% Utilidad 6,423 10,138 11, Fuente: Santander Investment. Fuente: Bloomberg y Santander Investment.

12 América Móvil Con 131 millones de usuarios, América Móvil es el principal operador de telefonía celular en latinoamérica. Alrededor de un 54% del EBITDA de la empresa se genera en México, a lo que se suman operaciones en Brazil, Colombia, Argentina, Chile, Perú, Ecuador, Uruguay, Paraguay, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras, República Dominicana, Puerto Rico y Estados Unidos. 12 Historia 2001: AMX es separada de Telmex. 2002: Adquisición de Telecom Americas (Brazil). 2003: Adquisición de CTE (El Salvador), CTI (Argentina) y BCP (Brazil) 2004: Adquisición de Megatel (Honduras) y Enitel (Nicaragua). 2005: Adquisición de Hutchinson Telecom (Paraguay), Smartcom (Chile) y TIM Perú. 2006: Adquisición de Verizon Dominicana 2007: Adquisición de Verizon Puerto Rico. Situación Actual Ventas EBITDA Utilidad Fuente: Santander Investment ,618 3,629 1, ,469 4,838 2, ,046 7,727 3,901 Razones del Éxito Se ha beneficiado del crecimiento de la penetración de la telefonía celular en latinoamérica Sólida estructura financiera y generación de flujo de caja P araguay Chile Uruguay Brazil P uerto ico Argentina P eru Ho nduras Guatemala Rep Do minicana El Salvado r Co lo mbia Ecuado r Nicaragua Me xico Market Share en Telefonía Móvil 13.0% 18.0% 21.0% Fuente: Santander Investment. 24.0% 25.4% 34.0% 38.0% 40.0% 44.0% 51.0% 53.0% 66.0% 69.0% 70.0% 77.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0 % % 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%

13 CVRD Companhia Vale do Rio Doce CVRD es el productor y exportador de hierro y nickel más importante del mundo, y la segunda compañía minera más grande del mundo, en términos de capitalización bursátil. Historia Participación de Mercado en Producción de Hierro, 2006 Se lista en el NYSE en 1994 Privatizada en 1997 Adquisición de INCO en % 16.0% 18.5% Razones del Éxito Activos mineros y productos de clase mundial Liderazgo en una industria consolidada Boom económico de China Situación Actual % 8.0% 4.0% 0.0% CVRD 9.0% 8.0% 2.5% 2.4% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Rio Tinto BHP Cleveland AngloAmerican Luossavaara Gazprom US Steel Desempeño Bursátil US$ Evrazholding Mitsui Ventas 8, , , RIO/P EBITDA 3, , , Utilidad 2, , , IBOV 0 Producción (M/ton) J-02 M-02 S-02 J-03 M-03 S-03 J-04 M-04 S-04 J-05 M-05 S-05 J-06 M-06 S-06 J-07 M Fuente: Santander Investment.

14 Otras Historias Destacables Gigantes Locales: Los Bancos Brasileros, Itaú, Bradesco, Banco do Brasil. Grandes Regionales: Telecom en México (AMX, Telmex), Bebidas (AmBev, Femsa), Eléctricas, Retailers Chilenos, Aeolineas. Las Marcas Globales: Embraer, Modelo (Corona), Concha y Toro PERU 14

15 Los Nuevos Entrantes: El fenómeno de las IPO Número de IPOs ( ) Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru 15

16 IPOs Reflejan dinámicas Económicas IPOs en Brazil por sector Eléctricas Tecnología y Media Inmobiliario Minería/Metales Salud Aerolíneas/Transporte Consumo Energía Comercio Bancos Small Caps Otros 16

17 Economía de la Región Indicadores Economicos, (2007E) Argentina Peru Chile Colombia Brazil Mexico GDP 8.0% 7.1% 6.0% 5.7% 4.3% 3.3% Consumption 8.1% 6.0% 7.2% 5.0% 5.2% 4.2% Investment 11.5% 19.0% 7.5% 20.3% 8.0% 7.8% Government 7.5% 8.0% 6.0% 2.5% 4.8% -0.1% Exports 11.0% 6.8% 12.7% 10.7% 4.0% 6.7% Imports 18.4% 13.3% 14.6% 20.8% 17.0% 7.4% Crecimiento de PIB vs Crecimiento de EBITDA, (2007E) Crecimiento PIB 9.0% 8.0% Argentina 7.0% Peru 6.0% Chile Colombia 5.0% Latam 4.0% Brazil 3.0% Mexico 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 17 Crecimiento EBITDA

18 Conclusiones Las Blue Chips se multiplicaron durante los últimos cinco años Brazil se ha consolidado como el mercado más grande de la región Las tres empresas más grandes de la región, Petrobras, América Móvil y CVRD, siguen estrategias globales o regionales PERU Sin Embargo, la mayoría de las compañías sigue estrategias locales Hoy en día muchas empresas latinoamericanas, de estrategias locales en su mayoría, están acudiendo al mercado de capitales para financiar sus planes de expansión, siguiendo las positivas dinámicas económicas internas de los países 18

19 Important Disclosures Key to Investment Codes Rating Definition Buy Expected to outperform the local market benchmark by more than 5.0%. % of Companies Covered with This Rating 50.75% % of Companies Provided Investment Banking Services in the Past 12 Months 73.33% Hold The numbers above reflect our Latin American universe. For a discussion, if applicable, of the valuation methods used to determine the price targets included in this report and the risks to achieving these targets, please refer to the latest published research on these stocks. Research is available through your sales representative and other electronic systems. Target prices are 2007 year-end unless otherwise specified. Recommendations are based on a total return basis (expected share price appreciation + prospective dividend yield) unless otherwise specified. Stock price charts and rating histories for companies discussed in this report are also available by written request to Santander Investment Securities Inc., 45 East 53rd Street, 17th Floor (Attn: Research Disclosures), New York, NY USA. Ratings are established when the firm sets a target price and/or when maintaining or reiterating the rating. Ratings may not coincide with the above methodology due to price volatility. Management reserves the right to maintain or to modify ratings on any specific stock and will disclose this in the report when it occurs. Valuation methodologies vary from stock to stock, analyst to analyst, and country to country. Any investment in Latin American equities is, by its nature, risky. A full discussion of valuation methodology and risks related to achieving the target price of the subject security is included in the body of this report. 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All Rights Reserved. 19 Expected to perform within a range of 5.0% above or below the local market benchmark. Underperform Expected to underperform the local market benchmark by 5.0% Sell 39.55% 9.70% 26.67% - 19

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