ICT Dissemination in Mexican Territories: A Causal Relation Analysis. Guillermo Jesús Larios Hernández

Transcripción

1 ICT Dissemination in Mexican Territories: A Causal Relation Analysis Guillermo Jesús Larios Hernández Proceedings of the 4th ACORN-REDECOM Conference Brasilia, D.F., May 14-15th, 2010

2 Meso Análysis : Structures Territory: polítical-administrative boundaries Network Efects ICT Market & Industry Electrónic Market Digital Gap Consumer Adoption Government Adoption Enterprise Adoption Access to Information Productivity Territorial Competitiveness Labor Market Industrial Supply Economic Development Flux Space Territorial Model: Clusters Territorial Model: Digital City Territory and Technology

3 -Based on low cost labor, not technology -Cybercafes more effective than government digital centers -Advancements at the Federal level -Several challenges faced by State governments and service integration Government adoption Productivity Digital gap Acceso to information -Broadband growth -Low penetration of Internet &.mx -Little Mexican content Low adoption rate in SMEs -Internet development opportunities, though there is a gap in R&D collaboration. Industrial supply Enterprise adoption Economic development Digital Network Economy Expressions Industrial structure: space of flux Labor market Consumer adoption Network effects electronic market ó ICT industry - Low penetration - Opportunity: Broadband and mobile - Hubs, low penetration - GDP dominated by telecom & manufacturing -Limited competition due to network externalities: it takes place between networks, not within a network! -Mexico is a relevant hub between developing countries -Labor market characterized by low growth sectors. Growth in ICT sector..

4 Research thread: casual relations that originate the digital network economy expressions (ICT adoption and production variables) in Mexican territories (State-level).

5 Research logic and boundaries Research object: The digital network economy in the Mexican territories. Variables of analysis: ICT adoption and production + potential causal variables. Definition of territory: political-administrative perspective (stable boundaries/ statistical information). Mexican States as territorial analysis unit timeframe. Variable hierarchies as a result of causality analysis 1 st : Ishikawa diagrams, 2 nd : statistical analysis. cause-effect models determine relational direction between variables. Aggregation level: meso. sectoral, group (households, enterprises, governments) and territorial.

6 Digital Network Economy Expressions Adoption Consumer adoption Access to information Electronic market Digital gap Enterprise adoption Industrial supply Productivity Government adoption Production ICT industry Labor market Network effects Territorial Economic development Industrial structure: space of flux Suggested Variables for the Statistical Analysis - Technology penetration in households - Internet penetration (%Internet) - Internet penetration (%Internet) - Penetration of the digital infrastructure - Technology penetration in companies - Technology penetration in companies, - Internet penetration (%Internet) - Sectoral IT goods - Sectoral GDP - Technology penetration in governments - GDP by ICT - Sub-sectoral ICT production - ICT jobs - Sub-sectoral ICT production - GDP, - GDP by ICT - Intellectual property - GDP, - GDP by ICT

7 Dependent Variables Digital Infrastructure (G-VD1) -Telephone penetration -Mobile penetration -Cable TV penetration -Computer penetration -Internet penetration Institutional Adoption (G-VD2) Enterprises (G-VD2a): - Telephone penetration - IT goods Households (G-VD2b): - Telephone penetration - Computer penetration Governments (G-VD2c): - Telephone penetration - Inventory Productive Activity (G-VD3) ICT subsectors -ICT manufacturing (SCIAN 334) -Wholesale distribution (SCIAN ) -Retail distribution (SCIAN 46621) -Telecom services (SCIAN 517) -IT consulting services (SCIAN ) - ISP services/web Hosting (SCIAN 518) -Call Centers & telephone booths (SCIAN 56142) Figura Cadena de Valor de la Industria en México R&D Variables -Patents -Copyrights ICT sector Macroeconomic Aggregates -ICT GDP -ICT jobs Proveedores plataformas de de Consultoras y Servicios profesionales Mayoristas OEM ASP Software a la medida e integración Operadores y Proveedores de Servicios de Telecomunicaciones VAR Minoristas Proveedores componentes Software empaquetado Integradores Usuarios Fuente: elaboración propia con base en información de Dizan et al, 2003; Select y el SIEM

8 Cause-Effect Analysis: Ishikawa Iniciativas capacitacion, Edad Activos educacion I Género D Regimenes Regulatorios Discapacidad Infraestr. de acceso Iniciativas Etnia promocion Idioma (des)empleo Adopción Composición S Costo de servicio en Mesoestructuras Grado de sectorial Interés E Alfabetización Territorio y Sector calificación del empleo Ingreso computacional Oferta: Contenido Valor Actitud y Nivel relevante e interesante agregado comportamiento Educativo Precios de Agrupamiento Usuarios Tamaño y los servicios industrial influyentes edad de Y Patentes y empresas Capacidades publicaciones laborales Practicas de organizacion Figura 2 - Diagrama Causa-Efecto de Ishikawa para la Adopción en Mesoestructuras Territoriales y Sectoriales. Elaboración propia a partir de diversos autores Iniciativas capacitacion, educacion I Regimenes Regulatorios Disponibilidad de Capital financiero Activos Figura 3 - Diagrama Causa-Efecto de Ishikawa para la Adopción en Empresas. Elaboración propia a partir de diversos autores S ERD Infraestr. de acceso Actividad sectorial Costo de servicio E Ingreso Nivel Oferta: Contenido Valor Percepcion Educativo relevante agregado Empleados Empleo intesivo Precios de Agrupamiento o no en Tamaño y los servicios industrial informacion y edad de Y Patentes y conocimiento empresas publicaciones Capacidades Practicas de laborales organizacion Adopción en Empresas Oferta: Contenido relevante e interesante Precios de Los servicios y E I Iniciativas promocion (des)empleo Ingreso Lengua Urbano / rural Etnia Interés Genero Figura 4 - Diagrama Causa-Efecto de Ishikawa para la Adopción en Hogares. Elaboración propia a partir de diversos autores Presupuesto E Figura 5 - Diagrama Causa-Efecto de Ishikawa para la Adopción en Gobierno. Elaboración propia a partir de diversos autores Mercado Local Empresas ancla Iniciativas capacitacion, educacion I Regimenes Regulatorios Iniciativas promocion E S Con o son ninos Nivel Educativo Edad Corrupcion y transp. Interes e mejorar Ingreso servicios Rigidez Nivel presupuestal Educativo Usuarios influyentes Capacidades laborales Disponibilidad de Capital financiero S Practicas de organizacion Interés Nivel Educativo (Capital humano) Universidades ERD Infraestr. de acceso S Capacidad de innovacion Adopción en Hogares Adopción en Gobierno Actividad Productiva Figura 6 - Diagrama Causa-Efecto de Ishikawa para la Actividad Productiva. Elaboración propia a partir de diversos autores

9 Independent Variables Potential causes for adoption (G-VI1) Enterprise adoption (G-VI1a) -Direct Foreign Investment (IED) per capita, -Share of the population with high education level, -Number of companies with ISO 9000 certification, -Number of large companies. Consumer adoption (G-VI1b) - Share of the population with high income, -Education level of the population (number of years), -Share of the population working less than 35 hours per week. Government adoption (G-VI1c) -Government income per capita, -Regulatory environment, -Corruption index, -Transparency and public access to information level, - e-government index. Other variables -Share of Internet Service Providers (ISPs), -Share of Value-added Service Providers, -Number of competitive local exchange carriers, -Number of e-mexico community centers. Productive capacity and environment (G-VI2) -Anti-piracy law application (regulatory regime), -Procedures to open new companies (regulatory regime), -Share of technicians (labor capabilities), -Share of bachelor students in IT (labor capabilities, universities), - Share of graduate students in IT (labor capabilities), -Share of CONACYT scholarships (labor capabilities), -Share of IT companies, -Number of software companies. Socioeconomic (G-VI3) -Share of the population with higher income, -Unemployment rate, -Basic infrastructure (water, drainage, etc.) - Share of the population with high education level, -Urban population, -Ethnicity (aboriginal group, language) -Dependency rate (age), - Number of companies with ISO 9000 certification, - Number of large companies, -State s economy value-added, -State economy s GDP.

10 Association of dependent and independent variables Type of Pair Adoption Productive Activity Group of Independent Variables Group of Dependent Variables Pair (Cause) (Effect) Potential causes for adoption (G-VI1) Digital Infrastructure (G-VD1) P1 Socioeconomic (G-VI3) Digital Infrastructure (G-VD1) P2 Enterprise adoption causes (G-VI1a) Enterprise adoption (G-VD2a) P3 Consumer adoption causes (G-VI1b) Consumer adoption (G-VD2b) P4 Government adoption causes (G-VI1c) Government adoption (G-VD2c) P5 Productive capacity and environment Productive Activity (G-VD3) P6 (G-VI2) Socioeconomic (G-VI3) Productive Activity (G-VD3) P7

11 Statistic Analysis %Internet 2000 %PC 2000 %Cel 2000 %CaTV 2000 %Tel 2000 PROMEDIO DESV STD MEDIANA COEF CURTOSIS COEF VARIACION COEF ASIMETRIA % Internet 2003 %PC 2003 %Cel 2003 %CaTV 2003 %Tel 2003 PROMEDIO DESV STD MEDIANA COEF CURTOSIS COEF VARIACION COEF ASIMETRIA Descriptive statistics & atypical data elimination through box and dispersion diagrams Figura 4.14 Estadística Descriptiva de las Variables de la Infraestructura Digital

12 Statistic Analysis Figura 5 Coeficientes del Análisis de Componentes Principales de las variables de la Infraestructura Digital. Fuente: elaboración propia con datos de INEGI, COFETEL y Select New indicator of digital infrastructure: Principal Component Analysis

13 Statistic Analysis Matriz de correlación eliminando NL, BC y CHIH, normalizados para el año 2000 For instance: Correlation analysis results for pair P1 Matriz de correlación eliminando NL, BC y CHIH, normalizados para el año 2003 y 2005 Matriz de correlación eliminando NL, BC, COL, OAX y AGS para el 2003 Figura 4.21 Coeficientes de correlación entre el indicador de infraestructura digital y variables de propensión. Elaboración propia

14 Mapping of correlation coefficient in a dual model

15 Explanatory Matrix of the Correlation Analysis Results Dependent Vars. Institutional Adoption Digital Infrastructure Digital Production Results Enterprise - IT goods - % Teleph Households - % PCs - % Teleph Government Digital Infrastructure Penetration Independent Variables (Causal) - High Correlation - (? 0.7) - Education level (%PC) Independent Variables (Causal) - Moderate Correlation - (0.58 a 0.69) - % population with high education level, - % large companies - % ISO 9000 certifications (Only IT goods) - Education level (%Telephones) - % population with higher income (%PC) (Little correlation with all independent variables for government adoption) - % employees with high education level - % of large companies - % Internet Service Providers (ISPs)/ Valueadded IT services - % ISO 9000 certifications - Education level - % Basic infrastructure - % population with higher income - % Urban population - GDP/ value added IT expenses - % population with higher income - % employees with high education level Domestic market: - % population with higher income - % Basic infrastructure - % Urban population Sectoral ICT (note there is little correlation with level of IT - % of large companies GDP studies) - value added Capabilities: - IT graduates copyright registries - % IT companies- some subsectors

16 What can this matrix conclude? It confirms: Heterogeneity in how the Digital Network Economy (DNE) inserts itself into each Mexican territory, A dependence relation with traditional socio-economic factors such as income, education level, urban population, the importance of the territory as enterprise hub, and GDP, An enterprise ICT sector with little technology production (distribution, manufacturing and telecom services) and territorial concentration (D.F), Retail distribution dominates as the largest number of ICT companies, An ICT industry that seems to follow domestic market opportunities, with no clear relation to local ICT capabilities. Additionally: It demonstrates a marginal government influence in promoting a digital network economy in Mexican territories, Given the importance of the education level and knowledge intensive services as promoters in ICT adoption, the level of local knowledge seems to determine how enterprises and citizens will incorporate into the DNE, Mexico can be emphasized by its importance in absolute numbers; though it pales when IT adoption indicators are considered per capita, Highlighting Mexico City (D.F.) as the production hub in ICT,

17 What about today? 2009 ICT Penetration: PC users: 27.2 million (22% growth compared to 2008) PCs with Internet access at home: 13.2 million Internet users: 28.4 million Mobile phones in use: 80 million (5% growth compared to 2008), >4.2 billion SMS messages every month (>31% growth compared to 2008), Broadband penetration: 7% in 2008 (40% growth compared to 2007) Digital Technologies Growth in Mexico MX: %Tel MX: %Cel MX: %CaTV MX: %PC MX: %Internet

18 $M USD Annual Growth Rate ICT Market Evolution and Trends % % % % % % % % % Total ICT Telecomm Services Total ICT Growth Telecomm Services Growth Telecommunication services: Mobile applications: GSM-HSPA dominates (92% market share), Mobile data market expected to grow 19% in , SMS grew 30.3% in 2009, Prepaid dominates New Players: Televisa (Nextel purchase), CFE Spectrum Auctions: 3G ( GHz) Unbundled Local Loop + Telmex IPTV? VoIP: 70% CAGR in in Latin America, Software market will grow 12% in 2010: innovation and productivity over low costs, BI (12%), analytical tools, CRM: 47% market penetration; 78% plan to adopt a solution. Key IT services: IT Security, Cloud computing services (45%) + hardware (62%). Sources: Select, IDC, Mundo Contact

19 ICT Market Evolution and Trends OPPORTUNITIES?: Initiatives to support ICT Adoption: Cybecafes, 3.3 GHz WiMAX?, SEP s HDT?, Casa Telmex, Unete program Initiatives to support ICT/ software production: Prosoft, Mexico IT, TechBA, IT-link CONACYT, Focus on public Internet access + ICT adoption for education? From IT distribution to BPO/ nearshoring? Gasto Interno Software Eq.Comp Personal 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Consumibles Eq.Comp Empresarial Svs. TI Source: Select Consulting, Economy Secretariat Micro (1-15) PyME (16-250) Intermedia ( ) Grande (>1000)