Tilapia Market in the U.S.

Transcripción

1 Tilapia Market in the U.S. Mercado de la Tilapia en EE.UU. O mercado de tilápia em os EUA

2 Quiénes Somos? Desde 1858 reportando el mercado de materias primas Compañía más antigua de EE.UU. Reportando mercado Imprenta a lista de precios

3 Qué Hacemos?, y Cómo? Sondeo de mercado Analistas y Reporteros recolectando datos cualitativos y cuantitativos Referencia de precio Información y transparencia POR TAL BRINDA EFICIENCIA AL MERCADO

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5 Indicadores Económicos, Producción Economic Indicators, Production Indicadores Econômicos, Produção

6 Disposable Income & DP Money Income Source: ERS, USDOC Trillion USD$ 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 Disposable personal money income Real disposable personal income DP Money Income % of Real DI per capita 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% DP Money Income % of Real DI per Capita 20% 2,0 10% 0,0 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 0%

7 Disposable Income & DP Money Income Source: ERS, USDOC Disposable Personal Money Income Per-Capita Real Disposable Personal Income Per-Capita '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

8 Trillions of U.S. Dollars 1,4 1,2 1,0 Food Expenditures Source: ERS Food at home Food away from home Recession Total: 1.3 Trillion 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

9 At home and away from home, per capita Source: ERS, USDOC At Home Away from Home '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

10 18 Unemployment Source: BLS Civilian Unemployment Rate Special Unemployment Rate: Unemployed and Discouraged Workers Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons

11 Employment Level - Part-Time for Economic Reasons, All Industries Employment (1000's) Source: BLS.gov '13

12 2013 New Jobs (Jan - July) Source: St. Louis Fed New Jobs Food Service Manufacturing Retail 2013 New Jobs:

13 Total Jobs Added by Age Range Since 2005 Source: St. Louis Fed Employment (Thousands)

14 El Mercado de Tilapia The Market, Tilapia Mercado, Tilapia

15 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 Consumption per capita Source: NFI, NMFS ,0 16,5 16,0 15,5 15,0 14,5 14,0 Shrimp Canned Tuna Salmon Pollock Tilapia Pangasius Catfish All Seafood

16 120% Consumption per capita Source: NFI, NMFS 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% Shrimp Canned Tuna Salmon Pollock Tilapia Pangasius All Seafood

17 Producción Mundial de Tilapia Source: FAO Miles de Toneladas Rest of the World Ecuador Colombia Tanzania, United Rep. of Kenya Viet Nam Taiwan Province of China Nigeria Mexico Uganda Bangladesh Thailand Brazil Philippines Indonesia Egypt China

18 Tilapia Imports to the U.S. by Commodity Type (Total), All origins Source: USDOC Million lbs Fresh Fillets Frozen Whole Frozen Fillets

19 Tilapia Imports to the U.S. Whole Fish-All origins Source: USDOC Million lbs Frozen Whole

20 Imports of Frozen Whole Fish YTD (Jan Jul) Source: USDOC 56 54, , , Million lbs. 45,88 45,

21 YTD 2013 China (mainland) 57,2% China (Taiwan) 39,8% Other 1,4% Hong Kong 0,2% Thailand 1,1% Ecuador 0,2% Malaysia 0,0% Panama 0,1%

22 Cyclical Behavior of Imports Source: USDOC 12,0 10,0 Million lbs 8,0 6,0 4, '12 avg. 2,0 0,0 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

23 Avg. Retail Price, Whole Sale (Jan Jul) Source: Urner Barry $3,00 $2,50 $2,00 $1,50 $1,00 $0,50 $ Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

24 Tilapia Imports, Fresh Fillets to the U.S. (Total), All origins Source: USDOC Million lbs Fresh Fillets

25 2008 Costa Rica 25,0% Ecuador 21,7% Colombia 13,3% Honduras 31,9% Costa Rica 21,3% Honduras 26,9% Mexico 5,4% Panama 2,8% Other 4,9% Ecuador 32,4% Colombia 6,2% Other 2,0% China (Taiwan) 2,2% Brazil 2,0% El Salvador 1,9% 2013

26 Cyclical Monthly Imports, Fresh Fillets Source: USDOC 6,0 5,5 Record year Million lbs 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 Adjusted '11 Adjusted ' '10 -''12 avg ,0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

27 Cyclical Monthly AVG. UB Quotations, Fresh Fillets Source: Urner Barry $4,20 $4,10 $4,00 $3,90 $3,80 $3,70 $3,60 $3, '10-'12 avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

28 $4,20 $4,10 $4,00 $3,90 $3,80 $3,70 Linear behavior, pricing and other factors, Fresh Fillets Source: Urner Barry, CME, USDOC $3,60 AVG UB Quotations Volume $3,50 ene-09 jul-09 ene-10 jul-10 ene-11 jul-11 ene-12 jul-12 ene-13 jul Millones 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% AVG UB Quotations % chg log -12% ene-09 jul-09 ene-10 jul-10 ene-11 jul-11 ene-12 jul-12 ene-13 jul-13 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20%

29 Tilapia Imports Frozen Fillets, All origins Source: USDOC Million lbs Frozen Fillets

30 Tilapia Imports Frozen Fillets, By Origin Source: USDOC China 88,6% Other 1,1% Indonesia 8,2% Malaysia 0,0% Thailand 0,9% Taiwan 1,1%

31 Tilapia Imports Frozen Fillets, YTD Source: USDOC ,0 200 Million lbs ,1 165,6 146,5 171,5 114,

32 Cyclical Monthly AVG. UB Quotations, Frozen Fillets Source: Urner Barry $2,55 $2,40 $2,25 $2,10 $1,95 $1,80 J F M A M J J A S O N D '10-'12 avg

33 Linear Monthly AVG. UB Quotations, Frozen Fillets Source: Urner Barry $2,75 48 $ per lb. $2, Million lbs. $2,25 30 $2,00 24 $1, $1,50 6 $1, Volume *Import Value per lb. UB Pricing *Total value reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce (imports' value of tilapia frozen fillets) divided by total pounds.

34 $10,00 Fresh/Frozen Tilapia Fillets, Retail $/lb. Source: Urner Barry $9,00 $8,00 $7,00 $6,00 $5,00 $4,00 $3,00 $2,00 $1,00 Max Min Avg $0,00 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

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36 Fresh/Frozen Tilapia Fillets, Retail $/lb. $9,00 $8,00 $7,00 $6,00 $5,00 $4,00 $3,00 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Max Min Avg

37 Fresh/Frozen Tilapia Fillets, Retail $/lb. Source: Urner Barry $8,00 60 $7,00 50 $6,00 $5,00 40 $4,00 30 $3,00 20 $2,00 $1,00 10 $0,00 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 0 Avg Features

38 Fresh/Frozen Tilapia Fillets, Retail $/lb. $6, $6, $5, $5, $4,50 40 Avg Features 20 $4,00 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 0

39 15% Fresh/Frozen Tilapia Fillets, Retail $/lb. Source: Urner Barry 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Avg Ret $ AVG imp/lb AVG UB fr/fz 6 month Rolling Avg. Imp$/lb. 6 Month Rolling Avg UB (fr/fz)

40 Conclusiones Economía de EE.UU. y consumo en recuperación Desempleo tiene que mejorar para levanter expectativas Apoyo de nuevas generaciones comiendo fuera

41 Conclusiones Importante entender las diferentes etapas y precios en los eslabones de distribución Precio de reemplazo de inventarios (C&F, no FOB) Precio FOB dentro de EE.UU. (Urner Barry) Precio Retail (al consumidor) Tienda de Autoservicio depende del costo de compra al importador El importador depende del precio de compra del productor El productor depende de precios de materia prima para procesar El precio de la materia prima Alimento Clima Energía

42 Conclusiones Consumo Per Capita de tilapia el más fuerte crecimiento de todas las especies Dividir las materias primas de tilapia Filetes frescos Filetes congelados Pescado Entero

43 Conclusiones Precios de reemplazo de producto muy de la mano de los precios de Urner Barry Sin embargo, dependiendo de la oferta: Precios de compra y oferta varían Poder de comprador, poder de vendedor

44 Gracias! Thank you! Obrigado! Angel D. Rubio Direct: