Perspectivas y Tendencias en Infraestructura

Transcripción

1 Perspectivas y Tendencias en Infraestructura Junio 2017

2 Agenda 1. Desafíos para la inversión de infraestructura en la región 2. Desarrollos recientes en autopistas chilenas 3. Mercado eléctrico chileno: Retos y oportunidades 4. Boom en energías renovables? 2

3 1 Financiamiento de infraestructura regional Desafíos 3

4 Desafíos en el sector de Infraestructura Infraestructura Regional Perspectivas de menor crecimiento económico Gap infraestructura Restricciones fiscales; Ratings soberanos Falta de proyectos financiables Casos de corrupción En el corto plazo» Desafíos actuales y demoras asociadas a casos de corrupción En el mediano-largo plazo Latinoamérica se beneficiará de: Compromiso a impulsar el crecimiento vía la inversión en infraestructura Mayor desarrollo de APPs Marcos regulatorios fortalecidos 4

5 Falta de proyectos financiables Infraestructura Regional Los factores claves que no logran atraer a los inversores institucionales: Diseño Planeamiento Estructuras legales Infraestructura: Activos de bajo riesgo Tasas de default acumuladas Financiación Construcción Licencias, permisos, expropiaciones Fuente: Moody s Investors Service: Default and Rates for Project Finance and Bank Loans, and Default and Rates for Project Finance and Bank Loans, : Project Type and Jurisdiction Matter 5

6 Implicancias Crediticias Infraestructura Regional Factor de Riesgo Impacto Potencial Crecimiento PBI Restricciones fiscales/ Soberano Activos con riesgo de demanda: Autopistas de peaje, servicios públicos regulados y, en menor medida, aeropuertos Riesgo de Contraparte: Emisores relacionados con el gobierno, APP de disponibilidad Corrupción Generalizado para proyectos en proceso en toda la región: demoras y retrasos 6

7 2 Desarrollos recientes en autopistas chilenas 7

8 Tráfico resistente frente al menor crecimiento económico Autopistas Chile 12.0% PBI real (% cambio) Crecimiento del tráfico % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% o o o o Disponibilidad de crédito y parque automotor Crecimiento urbano y turismo interno Precios combustibles Eficiencia autopistas frente a alternativas 8

9 Indicadores crediticios sólidos Autopistas Chile 600, ,000 Ingresos Inflación 4.60% 4.40% 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% Millones de CLP 400, , , % 2.80% 3% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% % 100, % 0.50% % DSCR promedio

10 Inversiones en el sector lentas y limitadas Autopistas Chile Expansión de concesiones actuales Vía extensión de los contratos o peajes adicionales Limitado espacio para incrementar tarifas Pocas oportunidades de inversión en el corto/mediano plazo Concesión AVO, USD 800 millones Segunda Concesión Rutas del Loa, USD 190 millones Ruta Nahuelbuta (Ruta 180), USD 160 millones 10

11 3 Tendencias en el mercado eléctrico chileno 11

12 Los bajos precios de la electricidad llegaron para quedarse Caída del 60% en los precios spot en los dos últimos años Sector Eléctrico Chile Sector Eléctico Chile 300 Spot prices Alto Jahuel 220 (U$S/MWh) Spot prices Crucero 220 (U$S/MWh) Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Presión a la baja sobre los precios de electricidad: Desaceleración de la demanda Precios de Commodities/ Combustibles Cambios en el Mercado Eléctrico Chileno: Interconexión, nuevos proyectos renovables Resultado de licitaciones recientes 12

13 Desaceleración de la demanda de electricidad Sector Eléctrico Chile Clientes libres: Débil crecimiento económico, retrasos en proyectos mineros Distribuidoras: Eficiencias en el consumo de electricidad Fenómeno de los integradores clientes regulados con posibilidad de elección 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 MWh 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - Distribuidoras Clientes libres Crecimiento 0.30% 0.49% 3.39% 5.86% 5.24% Año móvil 1er trim % 5.58% -0.37% 1.43% 0.02% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 13

14 Mercado Eléctrico: Período de importantes cambios Sector Eléctrico Chile Interconexión SIC-SING - TEN Mayor tamaño y liquidez: Reducción de las diferencias históricas precios SIC-SING Exposición de clientes en el norte (SING) al riesgo hidroeléctrico (SIC)? Mayor diversidad de recursos renovables no convencionales: Solares y eólicas Renovables: 14% del sistema en abril 2017 vs 6% en 2016 (capacidad instalada y generación) 86% de los proyectos en construcción corresponde a energías renovables 14

15 Mercado Eléctrico: Retos y Oportunidades Rápido desarrollo y descenso de los costos de instalación de renovables Sector Eléctrico Chile Caída de los precios medios ponderados de los contratos distribuidoras Dic 2015 USD 79 Mw/h Ago 2016 USD 47 Mw/h Fuente: CNE Requiere de ajustes y flexibilidad en el sistema Interconexión al Sistema - Ley de Transmisión (2016) Oferta intermitente - Programación servicios complementarios, creciente desafío, remuneración térmicas Contratos a medio plazo en auge (clientes libres, integradores ) Pospone necesidades de incrementos de capacidad GNL-regasificación 15

16 Sector Eléctrico Chile Generadores convencionales: Impacto Financiero Impacto a Corto y Medio plazo: Limitado Caída de precios spot: limitado; alto nivel de contratación Empresa Tecnología % contratado Sin embargo, desaceleración de la demanda afecta: Mayoría de los contratos sin cláusulas Take or Pay Creciente Incertidumbre a partir del 2023 Resultado de las próximas licitaciones distribuidoras volumen y precios Financiación y comisión exitosa de los proyectos renovables (ERNC) Requiere estructura de capital prudente Vencimiento post 2021 AES Gener Térmica 94% 76% Angamos Carbón 99% 100% Enel Generación Chile Hidro/Térmica 100% 86% 16

17 Sector Eléctrico Chile Tendencia a la baja en precios renovables es regional USD/ MWh Argentina Uruguay México ra. subasta da. subasta 33 Adjudicaciones de energías renovables 17

18 4 Boom en energías renovables? 18

19 Gran Potencial Solar Sector Eléctrico Regional Fuente: Solargis 19

20 Gran Potencial Eólico Sector Eléctrico Regional Fuente: 3TIER 20

21 Energías renovables: 3 categorías 1. Más del 95% de la oferta energética: Costa Rica y Uruguay 2. Crecimiento rápido: Argentina, Brasil, Chile 3. Crecimiento más lento: Perú, México, Colombia Sector Eléctico Regional Hidro principal Renovables en auge Hidro (centrales grandes y pequeñas) Combustibles fósiles Viento Solar Geotermal/Biomasa Otros 100% 90% 80% 70% 1% 1% 2% 4% 3% 4% 1% 12% 9% 2% 3% 1% 18% 0% 7% 11% 1% 2% 18% 22% 1% 1% 2% 49% 28% 60% 3% 68% 65% 50% 82% 40% 30% 20% 74% 57% 65% 48% 72% 10% 0% 26% 27% Costa Rica Uruguay Brazil Argentina Chile (*) Mexico Peru Colombia 11% (*) En países como Chile la generación de grandes plantas hidroeléctricas no califican como recurso renovable; solamente la generación de mini-hidros (<20MW) (**) Generación agregada SIC y SING (interconexión) Fuente: Operadores de mercado locales y entes reguladores; Moody's 21

22 Sector Eléctrico Regional Consideraciones para el desarrollo de renovables: Desarrollo grandes hidros Disponibilidad de recursos Políticas ambientales y objetivos Riesgo hidrológico (volatilidad) Locaciones disponibles: Económicamente menos eficientes Oposición ambiental y social Eólicos: Brasil, Uruguay, Argentina Solar : Norte de Chile/Sur de Perú, México, Argentina Biomasa (Uruguay), Geotérmica (Costa Rica) Objetivos ambientales varían entre países Más agresivos en Chile; menos agresivos en Perú y Colombia Licitaciones distribuidoras: Contratos de LP Argentina: 10 años eólicos, 20 solar / Uruguay: 20 años eólico, 25/30 solar Acceso a gas Amplia disponibilidad de gas frena el desarrollo en México y Perú 22

23 Sector Eléctrico Regional Políticas de Incentivos hacia Renovables Objetivos medioambientales Argentina 20% 2025 Brasi 86% 2023 Chile 20% 2025 Colombia No NA Text C. Rica 97% 2018 México 50% 2050 Perú 6% 2018 Uruguay 90% 2015 Subastas Públicas Incentivos Fiscales Depreciación Acelerada Excepción IVA/ I. Ingresos Imp. Carbono (Chile) Tarifa preferencial (feed-in) Centralizadas: Todos excepto Colombia Perú Fuente: International Renewable Energy Agency, National legislation Licitaciones distribuidoras: Clave para desarrollo de renovables 23

24 Desafíos en el desarrollo de ERNC Sector Eléctrico Regional Oferta intermitente - recursos de respaldo Chile: Demanda sector minero, servicios auxiliares Costa Rica: Embalses de hidroeléctricas para compensar Transmisión Cuellos de botella: Retrasos en la conexión de proyectos Comisión y Financiación Plazo contratos Precios agresivos y nuevas tecnologías Garantías Oposición social y retos ambientales Tortuosa gestión ambiental y social 24

25 Caso de Estudio Uruguay: Cambios en la matriz energética Factores que favorecieron el desarrollo de renovables ( ) Sector Eléctrico Regional Sector Eléctrico Regional Sector Eléctrico Regional Sector Eléctrico Regiona Volatilidad hidroelectricidad: (sequía) Cese de exportaciones GN Argentino Altos precios petróleo Políticas públicas Licitaciones: Amplia disponibilidad de recursos eólicos Precio medio licitaciones ( ): US$60/MWh 25

26 Alejandro Olivo Associate Managing Director Tel: Daniela Cuan VP Senior Analyst Tel: Natividad Martel, CFA VP Senior Analyst Tel: Bernardo Costa VP Senior Analyst Tel:

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