Moody s Sovereign Ratings. SAMAR MAZIAD, Vice President-Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group

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1 Moody s Sovereign Ratings SAMAR MAZIAD, Vice President-Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group Septiembre 2015

2 Agenda 1. Análisis Macroeconómico 2. Metodología de Moody s 3. Comparación de Bolivia con países similares 2

3 1 Análisis Macroeconómico 3

4 PIB de Latinoamérica y Tendencia LatAm GDP Growth LatAm Growth Trend (3.8%) % F 2016F 4

5 Latinoamérica vs. China Latin America GDP Growth China GDP Growth (Right-Hand Axis) F

6 Precio de Materias Primas: Indice de Energia (2010 = 100)

7 Exportadores/Importadores Netos de Petróleo en Latam % del PIB Net Export: Petroleum Net Export: Non-Petroleum Fuel Venezuela Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Uruguay Trinidad and Tobago Suriname El Salvador Paraguay Peru Panama Nicaragua Mexico Jamaica Honduras Guatemala Ecuador Dominican Republic Costa Rica Colombia Chile Barbados Brazil Bolivia Belize Bahamas Argentina * The benchmark Brent crude oil price forecasts : $55.0/b in 2015 and $65.3/b in Source: UNCTAD Net Import Net Export 7

8 Ingresos petróleros a nivel global Ingresos de Recursos Naturales % Ingresos totales del Gobierno; 2013 o ultimo dato disponible Colombia Cameroon Russia Ecuador Mexico Bolivia T&T Iran Venezuela Yemen Gabon Chad Nigeria Congo Azerbaijan Angola Kuwait Brunei Bahrain Qatar Iraq Países Latinoamericanos Países con abundancia de Petróleo y/ Gas

9 Impacto del Precio del Petróleo Países Latinoamericanos productores de petróleo Source: Moody s, Haver, UNCTAD 9

10 2 Metodología de Moody s 10

11 Cuatro Factores de Evaluación: Bolivia VH+ VH VH- H+ H H- M+ M M- L+ L L- VL+ VL VL-» Factor 1: Fortaleza Económica Moderada (-) Brasil (Alta), Paraguay (Moderada +), Nicaragua (Baja +)» Factor 2: Fortaleza Institucional: Baja (-) Chile (Muy Alta+), México (Moderada +), Ecuador (Muy Baja)» Factor 3: Fortaleza Fiscal: Alta (-) Ecuador (Alta+), Uruguay (Moderada +), Brasil (Baja +)» Factor 4: Susceptibilidad a Eventos de Riesgo: Moderada (+) Paraguay (Baja), El Salvador (Moderada -), Venezuela (Alta) Rango de Calificación: Ba2 B1 Calificación Crediticia de Bolivia : Ba3/STABLE 11

12 LATAM Sovereign Ratings Aa Chile (Aa3), China (Aa3) A México (A3), Perú (A3); Malaysia (A3) Baa Uruguay (Baa2), Colombia (Baa2), Brasil (Baa3) Ba1 Costa Rica, Paraguay, Hungría Ba2 Angola Ba3 Bolivia; Nigeria, Túnez, Gabón, El Salvador B República Dominicana (B1), Nicaragua (B2), Ecuador (B3) C Argentina (Caa1/2; neg), Venezuela (Caa3) 12

13 3 Comparación de Bolivia con países similares 13

14 Factor 1: Fortaleza Económica Crecimiento Real del PIB % anual, promedio Paraguay Nigeria Gabon Bolivia Mediana Ba Tunisia El Salvador 14

15 Factor 2: Fortaleza Institucional Indicadores Mundiales de Buen Gobierno (WGI), Banco Mundial (2013) Regulatory Quality Voice & Accountability Bolivia Mediana - Ba Median - F2 (Baja) Political Stability Control of Corruption Government Effectiveness Rule of Law Los Indicadores de Buen Gobierno (WGI) reporta índices para 215 con seis dimensiones de gobernabilidad: Rendición de Cuentas, Estabilidad política, Efectividad Gubernamental, Calidad Regulatoria, Estado de Derecho y Control de la Corrupción Bolivia ocupa un lugar bajo en Calidad Regulatoria y Estado de Derecho en comparación a la mediana de países con calificación crediticia Ba y con calificación Baja en Fortaleza Institucional. En cambio, las calificaciones de Estabilidad Política y Rendición de Cuentas son equiparables a países con calificación crediticia similar a Bolivia. 15

16 Factor 3: Fortaleza Fiscal Balance Fiscal del Gobierno % del PIB, promedio Tunisia El Salvador Mediana Ba Nigeria Paraguay Bolivia Gabon 16

17 Factor 3: Fortaleza Fiscal Deuda del Gobierno % del PIB, promedio El Salvador Tunisia Bolivia Mediana Ba Gabon Paraguay Nigeria 17

18 Factor 4: Susceptibilidad a Eventos de Riesgo Cuenta Corriente % del PIB, promedio Gabon Bolivia Nigeria Paraguay Mediana Ba El Salvador Tunisia 18

19 Factor 4: Susceptibilidad a Eventos de Riesgo Cobertura de Reservas Internacionales Multiplo, Reservas Internacionales / Deuda a Corto Plazo y Deuda a Largo plazo en vencimiento Nigeria Bolivia Gabon Mediana Ba El Salvador Paraguay Tunisia 19

20 2015 Moody s Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, MOODY S ). All rights reserved. CREDIT RATINGS ARE MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC.'S ( MIS ) CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MIS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL, FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT CONSTITUTE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS ARE NOT RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. 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Except as expressly stated otherwise, MOODY S has not verified, audited or validated independently any information received in the rating process, nor will it do so. Under no circumstances shall MOODY S have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or in part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error (negligent or otherwise) or other circumstance or contingency within or outside the control of MOODY S or any of its directors, officers, employees or agents in connection with the procurement, collection, compilation, analysis, interpretation, communication, publication or delivery of any such information, or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential, compensatory or incidental damages whatsoever (including without limitation, lost profits), even if MOODY S is advised in advance of the possibility of such damages, resulting from the use of or inability to use, any such information. 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