POPULATION HEALTH AND COBENEFITS FROM SLCF MITIGATION

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1 POPULATION HEALTH AND COBENEFITS FROM SLCF MITIGATION LUIS ABDON CIFUENTES PONTIFICIA UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA DE CHILE Technical Workshop on Science and Policy of Short- Lived Climate Forcers Mexico City, 9-10 September 2011

2 2 Contents 1. Population impacts from the UNEP BC/O3 Integrated Assessment 2. Some results of cobenefits for mitigation scenarios in Chile

3 4 Main results of the UNEP assessment

4 Causal steps 5 Mitigation measures Reduction of pollutants and CAPs emissions Reduction on BC and O3 concentrations, along with a host of other pollutants Reduction on health effects Valuation of the avoided effects

5 6 Impacts of BC and O3 on human health

6 Biological response to pollution 7 Mor tality Morbidity Visible effects on health Precursor alterations Uncertain alterations Accumulation of pollutants Proportion of total population affected

7 Which pollutants have an impact on health? 8 Particulate matter has long been recognized as having a strong impact on human health, from physiological changes to premature mortality The evidence has shown smaller size particles to be more toxic Ozone has long been shown to have irritant and oxidant properties, and only recently (~2005) its impact on premature mortality has been recognized.

8 BC health effects 9 BC is part of PM2.5. But does it has a different impact on mortality Modest, but growing, volume of literature on the effects of BC: Maynard et al., 2007: acute mortality effects of exposure to BC in homes), twice as big as PM2.5 s. Tonne et al., 2009: increased incidence of heart attacks

9 10 Indirect evidence on BC-mortality association In relation to PM 2.5, BC was more strongly associated with: blood pressure (Lundback et al., 2009; Mordukhovich et al., 2009; Zanobetti et al., 2004) markers of the thickening of artery walls (atherosclerosis) (Madrigano et al., 2009; Park et al., 2008; Hansen et al., 2007) electrocardiogram changes that are risk factors for arrhythmia (abnormal electrical activity of the heart) (Zanobetti et al., 2009) electrocardiogram changes that are risk factors for ischemia (restriction in blood supply) (Chuang et al., 2008; Gold et al., 2005) changes in DNA methylation (Baccarelli et al., 2009).

10 Household BC vs Diesel BC 11 BC is a surrogate for all particle mass that comes from diesel in one instance, and from household combustion in the other, and the fellow traveller particles are different in each case. So it is important to ask separately about the evidence for household derived BC. Here the evidence is weaker although it is clear that biomass combustion increases the risk of respiratory disease (Samuelsen et al., 2008; Dherani et al., 2008; Smith et al., 2000; Lipsett et al., 1997). Recently, a randomized trial of a chimney stove intervention in Guatemala was shown to reduce blood pressure (McCracken et al., 2007). Since blood pressure is a major risk factor for cardiovascular mortality, this provides support for the association of BC from such combustion and mortality.

11 BC mortality risk 12 Given that : traffic related BC is more toxic than average and the weaker evidence on the relative toxicity of biomass particles It was assumed that BC particles have the same risk as PM2.5 (average risk)

12 Scope 13 Health impacts in 2030 due to the change in PM 2.5 and O 3 concentrations projected in 2030 relative to 2005 concentrations based on the reference scenario. Change in ambient concentrations simulated by two models: GISS-PUCCINI and ECHAM-HAMMOZ Endpoints considered: PM : cardiopulmonary mortality and lung cancer O 3 : respiratory mortality Years of life lost (YLL) calculated based on current life expectancies.

13 Scope 14 Outdoor air pollution PM2.5 and O3 considered. Unit risk from EPA s expert elicitation: 1.06% per ug/m3 PM2.5 (1.8x ACS risk). Linear function. Indoor Air Pollution To be conservative, only respiratory mortality considered Only India and China considered due to data limitations

14 15 Results

15 17 Change in annual PM 2.5 cardiopulmonary and lung cancer and O 3 respiratory mortality (lives per km 2 ) in 2030 relative to 2005 for the reference scenario.

16 18 Premature mortality (millions of premature deaths annually) by region, showing the change in 2030 in comparison with 2005

17 19 Cobenefits of Climate Mitigation Actions in Chile 1. Although Chile has not formal mitigation commitment, in Copenhagen it pledged a voluntary reduction of 10% + 10% 2. What are the costs of this pledge? 3. What are the public health benefits of it?

18 Teracalorias Enery consumption is rapidly growing , , , ,000 50,000 0 Petroleo Combustible Nafta Metanol Kerosene Gas s/p Gas Refineria Gas Natural Gas Licuado Gas Corriente Gas Alto Horno Electricidad Diesel Coke Carbon Biomasa

19 CPR Energía Industria Transporte Emisiones de GEI directas e indirectas 21 Año 2030 Transporte - Maritimo Transporte - Ferroviario Transporte - Caminero Transporte - Aereo Industria - Siderurgia Industria - Salitre Industria - Petroquimica Industria - Pesca Industria - Papel y celulosa Industria - Industria y Minas Varias Industria - Hierro Industria - Cobre Industria - Cemento Industria - Azucar Energia - Petroleo y Gas Energia - Gas y Metanol Energia - Gas y Coque Energia - Carbon y Lena Energia - Generacion Electrica CPR - Residencial CPR - Comercial y Publico Forestal - Forestal Directas Indirectas por Consumo Eléctrico MtonCO2e/año

20 Crecimiento emisiones relativo a Emissions Growth in the BAU scenario relative to % 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% CO MP25 NOX SOX NH3 COVNM GEI 20% 0%

21 USD/tonCO2e Duchas Eficientes Impuesto a Combustibles Camiones Impuesto a Combustibles Camiones Iluminacion Residencial Eficiente Motores Nuevos Eficientes Geotermia_SING Mini_hidro_SIC Aislacion Viviendas Nuclear_SIC Geotermia_SIC Eolica_SIC Cogeneracion Biocombustibles Marginal Mitigation Cost Curve % 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Reducción GEI vs. BAU Acumulado

22 Average cost and public health benefit by measure (mid scenario) 24 Chatarrizacion Camiones Vehiculos Livianos Hibridos Plug-in Conduccion eficiente Vehiculos Livianos Expansion Lineas de Metro Lavadoras Eficientes Vehiculos Livianos Hibridos Colectores Solares Secadoras Eficientes Microondas Eficientes Biocombustibles Calderas de Condensacion Mareomotriz_SIC Biomasa_SIC Lavavajillas Eficientes Conduccion eficiente Taxis y Colectivos Calentadores Eficientes Cogeneracion Eolica_SIC Solar_SING Eolica_SING Geotermia_SIC Carga en Ferrocarril Nuclear_SIC Aislacion Viviendas Mini_hidro_SIC Geotermia_SING Refrigeracion Residencial Eficiente Buses Hibridos Motores Nuevos Eficientes Taxis y Colectivos Hibridos Reduccion Perdidas Standby Refrigeracion Comercial Eficiente Adelanto Recambio Motores Iluminacion Residencial Eficiente Conduccion eficiente Camiones Conduccion eficiente Buses Mejoras Aerodinamicas Impuesto a Combustibles Camiones Impuesto a Combustibles Vehiculos Livianos Subvencion Transporte Publico Duchas Eficientes Co-beneficio Alto Co-beneficio Bajo Costo Medio USD/tCO2e reducido

23 25 Cobenefits are generally higher than mitigation costs

(USD/tCO2e) 26 Marginal mitigation costs including cobenefits 1,000 800 600 400 200

24 (USD/tCO2e) 26 Marginal mitigation costs including cobenefits 1, ,000 Reducción GEI Acumulada (MtCO2e)

25 (USD/tCO2e) 27 Uncertainty on the public health benefits Curva de co-beneficios Escenario Bajo de valoración - Escenario MIT Medio Fuente: Elaboración Propia Reducción GEI Acumulada (MtCO2e)

26 28 Co-benefits by Measure (mid scenario) Medida Co-beneficio (USD/tCO2e) Aislación Viviendas [38-627] Chatarrización Vehículos Livianos [18-299] Electrodomésticos Eficientes [18-298] Refrigeración Comercial Eficiente [17-292] Refrigeración Residencial Eficiente [17-284] Iluminación Residencial Eficiente [17-281] Chatarrización Camiones [15-253] Subvención Transporte Publico [15-246] Medidas a los vehículos livianos [14-240] Impuesto a Combustibles Camiones [14-231] Conducción eficiente Buses [13-222] Vehículos livianos Híbridos [13-210] Conducción eficiente Camiones [13-209] Buses Híbridos [12-207] Biocombustibles [11-183] Expansión Líneas de Metro [11-184] Carga en Ferrocarril [11-182] Vehículos Livianos Híbridos Plug-in [11-175] Cogeneración [10-176] Motores Nuevos Eficientes [7-117] Adelanto Recambio Motores [4-63] Renovables Limpias SIC [3-47] Medidas de reducción consumo Agua Caliente [2-30] Renovables Limpias SING [1-15] Biomasa_SIC [ ]

27 29 Thanks a lot lac@ing.puc.cl

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