Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario VALERIA AZCONEGUI, AVP ANALYST FERNANDO ALBANO, AVP - ANALYST

Transcripción

1 Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario VALERIA AZCONEGUI, AVP ANALYST FERNANDO ALBANO, AVP - ANALYST OCTUBRE, 2014

2 Agenda 1. Factores determinantes de la Perspectiva Negativa del Sistema Financiero 2. Propuesta de Nueva Metodología de Bancos Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

3 1 Factores determinantes de la Perspectiva Negativa del Sistema Financiero Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

4 Banco Cetelem S.A. HSBC Bank Argentina S.A. John Deere Credit Compania Banco Itau Argentina S.A. Banco Santander Rio S.A. ICBC S.A. Toyota Compania Financiera de Banco Patagonia S.A. BNP Paribas (Argentina) GPAT Compania Financiera S.A PSA Finance Argentina Comp.Fin.S.A. Rombo Compañía Financiera Mercado a Término de Buenos Aires S.A. Banco de Galicia y Buenos Aires S.A. Compañía Financiera Argentina S.A. Banco Macro S.A. Banco del Tucuman S.A. Banco Supervielle S.A. Cordial Compañía Financiera S.A. Banco Comafi S.A. Banco de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires Banco del Chubut Banco de Corrientes S.A. Banco de Santiago del Estero S.A. Nuevo Banco de la Rioja S.A. Banco Piano S.A. Banco de Servicios y Transacciones S.A. Banco Finansur S.A. Banco de Valores S.A. Banco de la Provincia de Cordoba S.A. Control Union Argentina S.A. Puente Hnos. S.A. Distribución de Calificaciones de Entidades Financieras ba38 b17 b26 b35 caa14 caa23 caa32 ca1 c0 BCA Soporte del Accionista Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

5 Distribución de Calificaciones Globales y en Escala Nacional Caa2 Baa3.ar 3% 15% B1 Aaa.ar 27% 29% Baa2.ar 21% Caa1 58% B2 9% B3 3% Baa1.ar 20% Ba2.ar 3% Aa2.ar 9% A1.ar 3% Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

6 Perspectiva Negativa del Sistema Financiero Entorno Operativo Declinando Calidad de Cartera y Capital Declinando Fondeo y Liquidez Estable Rentabilidad y Eficiencia Declinando Soporte Sistémico Declinando Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

7 Deterioro del Entorno Operativo: Recesión e Inflación Creciente 35,0% Crecimiento PBI Indice del Salario (INDEC) 33,5% 30,0% 29,4% 25,0% 26,3% 24,5% 25,9% 20,0% 15,0% 16,7% 10,0% 9,1% 8,6% 5,0% 0,0% 0,1% 0,9% 2,9% -5,0% -2,0% F Fuente: Moody s e INDEC Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

8 Argentine Peso per $ $ billion Débil Posición Externa Incrementa la Expectativa de Devaluación 16,50 Reservas Internacionales Tipo de Cambio implícito en Bonos Tipo de Cambio Oficial 43 14, , , , , ,50 25 mar-2013 jun-2013 sep-2013 dic-2013 mar-2014 jun-2014 sep-2014 Fuente: Banco Central de la República Argentina Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

9 Menores Cuentas Sueldo, Mayor Desempleo Cuentas Sueldo (en Millones) (Eje Derecho) Desempleo (Eje Izquierdo) 8,5% 8,1 8,0% 7,5% 7,0% 6,5% 7,3% 7,2% 6,7% 7,1% 7,2% 7,6% 6,9% 7,9% 7,2% 6,8% 6,4% 7,1% 8,1 8,0 8,0 7,9 7,9 7,8 6,0% 7,8 5,5% 7,7 7,7 5,0% jun-11 dic-11 jun-12 dic-12 jun-13 dic-13 7,6 Fuente: Banco Central de la República Argentina e INDEC Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

10 Desaceleración de los Préstamos 14,0% 12,0% 10,6% 13,6% 10,0% 9,0% 9,3% 8,0% 8,1% 7,3% 6,8% 7,7% 8,0% 6,0% 4,8% 5,7% 5,6% 4,8% 4,0% 2,6% 2,0% 0,0% mar-11 jun-11 sep-11 dic-11 mar-12 jun-12 sep-12 dic-12 mar-13 jun-13 sep-13 dic-13 mar-14 jun-14 Fuente: Banco Central de la República Argentina Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

11 Préstamos Dirigido y al Consumo Dinamizan el Crédito 8,0% Personales y Tarjetas de Crédito ($) Préstamos Comerciales ($) Prendarios e Hipotecarios ($) 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% 0,0% -2,0% Fuente: Banco Central de la República Argentina (Variaciones Mensuales) Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

12 Mayor Exposición al Gobierno en forma de Lebacs, y Menor Dependencia en término de Fondeo 50% 45% Private Banks 45% Public Banks 42% 42% 40% 35% 37% 35% 34% 37% 34% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 14% 10% 8% 17% 9% 9% 9% 9% 5% 0% jun jun-14 Exposición al Sector Público / Total Activos Depósitos Sector Público / Pasivos Totales Fuente: Banco Central de la República Argentina Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

13 Cartera Irregular Crece Nominalmente 12,00 Cartera Irregular Nominal - Eje Izquierdo Cartera irregular total - Eje Derecho 2,00% 10,00 1,80% 1,60% 8,00 1,40% 1,20% 6,00 1,00% 4,00 0,80% 0,60% 2,00 0,40% 0,20% - 0,00% Fuente: Banco Central de la República Argentina Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

14 Indicadores de Referencia reflejan una suba de la Cartera de Consumo en Mora 3,30% Cartera Irregular Minorista % - Eje Izquierdo UTDT - Indice al Consumidor - Eje Derecho 55 3,20% 3,10% 50 3,00% 45 2,90% 2,80% 40 2,70% 2,60% 35 2,50% 30 Fuente: Banco Central de la República Argentina y Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

15 Indicador de Referencia apunta a una Menor Actividad Económica y Mayor Mora 1,40% Cartera Irregular Corporativa % - Eje Izquierdo Indice Industrial Mensual - Eje Derecho 145 1,20% 140 1,00% 135 0,80% 130 0,60% 125 0,40% 120 0,20% 115 0,00% 110 Fuente: Banco Central de la República Argentina, INDEC, MATba, ACARA Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

16 Adecuados Niveles de Capital y Previsiones Previsiones / Cartera Irregular Tier 1 20,0% 176,1% 180,0% 18,0% 170,0% 160,0% 16,0% 14,0% 147,7% 144,4% 150,5% 140,4% 150,0% 140,0% 12,0% 13,0% 11,9% 12,5% 13,0% 130,0% 11,0% 120,0% 10,0% 110,0% 8,0% jun ,0% Fuente: Banco Central de la República Argentina Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

17 Menor Crecimiento de Depósitos 40,0% Depósitos Sector Publico Cuentas Corriente Caja de Ahorro Depósitos a Plazo Fijo Depósitos Totales 35,0% 30,0% 25,0% 20,0% 22,9% 28,8% 26,3% 15,0% 10,0% 10,5% 5,0% 0,0% -5,0% jun-14 Fuente: Banco Central de la República Argentina Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

18 Activos Líquidos en forma de Efectivo e Instrumentos del BCRA Disponibilidades Otros Títulos Públicos LEBAC/NOBAC Activos Líquidos/Depósitos 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 28% 25% 27% 27% 25% 10% 0% jun-14 Fuente: Banco Central de la República Argentina Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

19 Millones ARS Evolución de Ingresos Trimestrales Ingresos por Intereses Ingresos por tipo de cambio Ingresos por Tiítulos Valores Otros Ingresos Financieros Ingresos por comisiones Otros Ingresos Ingreso Neto Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Fuente: Banco Central de la República Argentina Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

20 Ingreso por Comisiones se Deteriora, pero Continúa Siendo Significativo Ingresos por Préstamos Comisiones Ingresos por Títulos Ingreso por Tipo de Cambio Otros Ingresos 100% 90% 80% 70% 4% 2% 2% 4% 4% 5% 5% 9% 22% 19% 26% 18% 8% 12% 21% 60% 50% 40% 31% 33% 31% 29% 25% 30% 20% 10% 35% 38% 43% 40% 34% 0% jun-14 Fuente: Banco Central de la República Argentina Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

21 Rentabilidad Favorecida por Ingresos No Recurrentes 12,0% Ingreso antes de Cargos por Incobrabilidad / Promedio de Activos Ponderados por Riesgo (RWA) Ingreso Financiero Neto (%) 11,0% 11,0% 10,9% 10,0% 9,0% 8,0% 7,0% 8,1% 7,6% 7,7% 7,5% 8,8% 8,0% 8,8% 9,1% 6,0% jun-14 Fuente: Banco Central de la República Argentina Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

22 ARS Billions Ingresos Extraordinarios Afectan Positivamente Ratios de Eficiencia Gastos Operativos (Eje Izquierdo) 55,8% 55,9% 52,7% Costos / Ingresos (Eje Derecho) 48,6% 60,0% 50,0% 50 43,7% 40,0% ,0% 20,0% 10,0% jun-14 0,0% Fuente: Banco Central de la República Argentina Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

23 2 Propuesta de Nueva Metodología de Bancos Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

24 2.a) Introducción Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

25 Request for Comment Highlights Proposed changes to our methodology responds to three core objectives:» 1. Build on strengths of the existing methodology» 2. Respond to fundamental shift in the way failing banks are resolved or recapitalized in certain jurisdictions» 3. Refine underlying concepts behind Joint-Default Approach to Support Analysis Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

26 Key Changes Sequential approach maintained. Introduction of Loss Given Failure component responds to new resolution regimes. Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

27 2.b) Estructura de las Evaluaciones del Riesgo Crediticio Base de Bancos (BCA) Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

28 BCA Structure Our bank BCAs describe the probability of a bank defaulting on any of its rated instruments, in the absence of external support. Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

29 1. Macro Profile Macro Profile builds on three components from our sovereign scorecard, and three banking components. Credit Conditions gain more weight as they deteriorate. KEY: Sovereign Component Banking Component 1 Economic Strength * 2 Institutional Strength * 3 Susceptibilty to Event Risk** 1 Banking Country Risk Credit Conditions Unadjusted Banking System Macro Profile 2 Funding Conditions Adjustment 3 Industry Structure Adjustment * Excluding adjustment related to track record of sovereign default ** Excluding banking factors Banking System Macro Profile Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

30 Selected Macro Profile Rank Ordering Macro Profile Rank Ordering Initial estimated Macro Profiles for selected systems (August 2014) Country Banking Country Risk as of 13 August 2014 Credit Conditions Funding Conditions Industry Structure Banking System Macro Profile Country Australia Banking Aaa - Country Aa2 Risk Neutral Credit Conditions-1 Funding Conditions 1 Industry Very Strong Structure Macro Profile Canada Aaa - Aa2 Weak 0 1 Very Strong - AUSTRALIA France Aaa Aaa - Aa2 - Aa2 Neutral Neutral Very Strong 1 - Very Strong CANADA Germany Aaa Aaa - Aa2 - Aa2 Neutral Weak Very Strong 1 - Very Strong - FRANCE Aaa - Aa2 Neutral -1 0 Very Strong - United Kingdom Aaa - Aa2 Neutral 0-1 Very Strong - GERMANY Aaa - Aa2 Neutral 0-1 Very Strong - UNITED United KINGDOM States Aaa Aaa - Aa2 - Aa2 Weak Neutral Very Strong -1 - Very Strong - UNITED STATES Japan Aa1 Aaa - Aa3 - Aa2 Weak Weak Strong -1+ Very Strong - JAPAN Korea Aa1 Aa1 - Aa3 - Aa3 Weak + Weak Strong 0+ Strong + KOREA Mexico A1 Aa1 - A3- Aa3 Neutral Weak Strong 0 Strong + MEXICO Saudi Arabia Aa3 A1 - A2 - A3 Weak Neutral Strong 0 Strong SAUDI ARABIA Aa3 - A2 Weak Strong Brazil A2 - Baa1 Weak Strong - BRAZIL A2 - Baa1 Weak Moderate + CHINA China A1 A1 - A3 - A3 Weak Weak Moderate 0 + Moderate + ITALY Italy A1 A1 - A3- A3 Weak Weak Moderate 0 + Moderate + SOUTH South AFRICAAfrica A2 - A2 Baa1 - Baa1 Weak + Weak Moderate 0 + Moderate + SPAIN Spain A1 A1 - A3- A3 Weak Weak Moderate 0 + Moderate + INDIA India Baa1 Baa1 - Baa3 - Baa3 Neutral Neutral Moderate -1 Moderate INDONESIA Baa2 - Ba1 Neutral 0 0 Moderate Indonesia Baa2 - Ba1 Neutral 0 0 Moderate TURKEY A3 - Baa2 Weak 0 0 Moderate RUSSIA Turkey A3 Baa3 - Baa2 - Ba2 Weak Neutral Moderate 0 Moderate - KAZAKHSTANRussia Baa3 Baa3 - Ba2 - Ba2 Neutral Neutral 0 00 Moderate -1 - Weak + AZERBAIJAN Kazakhstan Baa3 B1 - Ba2 - B3 Neutral Neutral Weak 0+ Weak - ARGENTINA Azerbaijan B1 B3 - B3 - Caa2 NeutralWeak 0 00 Weak 0- Very Weak + EGYPT Argentina B3 - B2 Caa2 - Caa1 Weak Very Weak Very Weak 0 + Very Weak CYPRUS Baa2 - Ba1 Very Weak -3 0 Very Weak - Egypt B2 - Caa1 Very Weak Very Weak UKRAINE Caa2 - C Weak Very Weak - Cyprus Baa2 - Ba1 Very Weak -3 0 Very Weak - Ukraine Caa2 - C Weak Very Weak - Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

31 2. Financial Profile Our assessment of a bank s financial profile is structured around 5 key ratios. Tangible assets = total assets less derivatives less goodwill and other intangibles Tangible banking assets = total assets less derivatives less goodwill and other intangibles less insurance investments Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

32 Macro Profile Initial BCA score derived from Macro + Financial Profiles Macro Profile determines the relationship between financial ratios and unadjusted scores Example: Bank s Financial Ratio Country s Macro Profile Initial Score Bank in Country 1 Moderate Strong baa2 Bank in Country 2 Moderate Weak b1 VERY STRONG + Financial Ratio VS+ VS VS- S+ S S- M+ M M- W+ W W- VW+ VW VW- VS+ aaa aaa aa1 aa1 aa2 aa3 a1 a3 baa1 baa2 ba1 ba3 b2 caa1 caa3 VS aaa aa1 aa1 aa2 aa3 a1 a2 a3 baa1 baa3 ba1 ba3 b2 caa1 caa3 VS- aa1 aa1 aa2 aa2 aa3 a1 a2 baa1 baa2 baa3 ba2 b1 b2 caa1 caa3 S+ aa1 aa2 aa2 aa3 a1 a2 a3 baa1 baa2 ba1 ba2 b1 b3 caa1 caa3 S aa2 aa2 aa3 a1 a2 a3 baa1 baa2 baa3 ba1 ba3 b1 b3 caa1 caa3 S- aa3 aa3 a1 a2 a3 a3 baa2 baa3 ba1 ba2 ba3 b2 b3 caa2 caa3 M+ a1 a1 a2 a3 a3 baa1 baa2 baa3 ba2 ba3 b1 b2 b3 caa2 caa3 M a2 a2 a3 baa1 baa1 baa2 baa3 ba1 ba2 ba3 b1 b3 caa1 caa2 caa3 M- a3 a3 baa1 baa2 baa3 baa3 ba1 ba2 ba3 b1 b2 b3 caa1 caa2 caa3 W+ baa1 baa2 baa2 baa3 ba1 ba2 ba2 ba3 b1 b2 b3 b3 caa1 caa2 caa3 W baa2 baa3 ba1 ba1 ba2 ba3 ba3 b1 b2 b3 b3 caa1 caa2 caa2 caa3 W- baa3 ba1 ba2 ba3 ba3 b1 b2 b2 b3 b3 caa1 caa1 caa2 caa2 caa3 VW+ ba1 ba3 ba3 b1 b2 b2 b3 b3 caa1 caa1 caa2 caa2 caa2 caa3 caa3 VW ba3 b1 b2 b3 b3 caa1 caa1 caa1 caa2 caa2 caa2 caa2 caa3 caa3 caa3 VW- b1 b3 caa1 caa1 caa2 caa2 caa2 caa3 caa3 caa3 caa3 caa3 caa3 caa3 caa3 VERY WEAK - Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

33 3. Qualitative Adjustments to Scorecard We may adjust our initial BCA score by one or more notches if we judge any of these factors has a material bearing on the bank s overall risk profile. 1 Business diversification 2 Opacity and complexity 3 Corporate behavior Gauges a bank s sensitivity to deterioration in a single business line. An institution s riskiness increases with its complexity, other things being equal. A bank s creditworthiness can be influenced by what we term its corporate behavior, which can also signal other concerns.. Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

34 2.c) Soporte y Análisis Estructural Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

35 Support & Structural Analysis Considers 3 Elements Affiliate Support, Loss Given Failure (LGF) and Government Support SUPPORT & STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS» How likely is a bank to be supported by affiliates?» Determines the Adjusted BCA» The risk that different creditors are exposed to in the event of the failure of a bank, absent government support» This enables us to distinguish between the BCA, bank senior unsecured, bank holding company senior unsecured, and deposits» The extent to which risks to creditors are mitigated by public support Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

36 Affiliate Support No proposed change to our approach to assessing Affiliate Support. Variables remain as follows: 1 Unsupported 2 Support Creditworthiness 3 4 rating (BCA) probability Dependence (correlation) These will determine a range of potential uplift under our Joint-Default Approach (JDA) Probability of Default (PD) = (1- Support Probability) * BCA + Support Probability * ((Dependence * min (BCA, Creditworthiness) + (1 - Dependence ) * BCA * Creditworthiness) Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

37 Loss Given Failure analysis applies to Bail-in Systems Before government support is assessed, LGF analysis is applied to banks subject to operational resolution regimes; elsewhere, we use current notching. Operational Resolution Regime? YES NO Loss Given Failure (LGF) Liability Analysis» Specific legislation enabling orderly resolution of failed bank» Clear understanding of impact on depositors and other creditors» Reduced likelihood of support for senior creditors Notching Senior unsecured rating: Adjusted BCA Dated subordinated debt rating: Adjusted BCA -1» Expectation that the largest, most systemically important banks are typically resolved through support rather than bail-in» Statutory alternative is bankruptcy, but resolution approaches tend to be defined only in a crisis Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

38 What is an Operational Resolution Regime?» ORRs allow banks to selectively default on certain instruments outside of bankruptcy» System with specific legislation and powers to resolve banks outside of a general corporate bankruptcy code» Offers clear procedures for resolution» We believe it is going to be used other systems: resolution procedures ad hoc, less predictable in nature» Our proposed methodology will reflect the reality that some classes of creditors that have traditionally been protected by support, may no longer be - bail in regime versus bail out» In countries with operational resolution regimes, burden sharing through bail-in is moving further up the capital structure. Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

39 Government Support Government support is assessed for each creditor class and uplift derived using JDA. NEW We will use sovereign rating rather than systemic support indicators (SSI) % Government Backed 70-95% Very High 50-70% High 30-50% Moderate 0-30% Low Updated from current 100% only 90% Very High 70% High 50% Moderate Notching within the JDA range is a Rating Committee judgment Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

40 Capacity of Country to Provide Support Government support capacity is based on its bond rating.» Rationale: Liquidity crisis will often degrade into a solvency crisis, as seen during crisis. Central bank liquidity support can keep banks afloat, but solvency issues require recapitalization, which is generally beyond a central bank s powers. As a government becomes increasingly involved in the rescue of banks, the country s capacity to bail-out its system converges towards the government s fiscal capacity, and thus its bond rating. Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

41 Appendix: Indicative Impact Analysis Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

42 Baseline Credit Assessment We expect impact on baseline credit assessments (BCAs) to be limited. Weighted IMPACT Balance Number average Average down / up Sample in notch change BCA North America 0% a3 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% EU and Other Western Europe 0% 0% 2% 94% 2% 1% 0% 1% ba1 Asia Pacific baa3 0% 0% 1% 91% 5% 2% 0% 6% CIS and Western Asia 0% 0% 0% 97% 3% 0% 0% 3% b2 Latin America -2% ba2 0% 1% 1% 98% 0% 0% 0% MEA ba2 0% 0% 1% 96% 2% 3% 0% 0% WORLD 2% ba2 0% 0% 1% 95% 3% 1% 0% Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

43 Local Currency Deposit Ratings LGF positively affects deposit ratings in the US and Europe Weighted IMPACT Balance Number average Average <= >=3 down / up Sample in notch change rating North America A1 0% 0% 0% 12% 8% 75% 5% 88% EU and Other Western Europe 0% 0% 4% 16% 24% 49% 6% 75% Baa1 Asia Pacific -3% A3 0% 3% 5% 88% 3% 1% 0% CIS and Western Asia 0% 0% 2% 95% 3% 0% 0% 1% B2 Latin America Ba2 0% 0% 13% 84% -11% 2% 1% 0% MEA Baa3 0% 0% 19% -17% 79% 2% 0% 0% WORLD Baa2 0% 1% 6% 59% 10% 22% 2% 27% Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

44 Local Currency Senior Unsecured Debt LGF positively affects senior debt ratings in Europe, but negatively in the US Weighted IMPACT Balance Number average Average <= >=3 down / up Sample in notch change rating North America A3 0% 1% 61% 29% 6% 1% 1% -54% EU and Other Western Europe 0% 0% 14% 24% 36% 21% 4% 48% Baa1 Asia Pacific -3% A1 0% 3% 0% 97% 0% 0% 0% CIS and Western Asia 0% 0% 2% 94% 4% 0% 0% 2% B1 Latin America -5% Ba2 0% 0% 9% 86% 5% 0% 0% MEA Ba1 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% WORLD Baa2 0% 1% 21% 49% 18% 9% 10% 2% Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

45 Request for Comment We welcome feedback before 7 November» This Request for Comment ( RFC ) describes proposed changes to the Credit Rating Methodology for Banks. We are seeking feedback on the entire RFC.» If the Credit Rating Methodology is adopted, our preliminary assessment estimates that ratings will be affected as described above.» We invite market participants to comment on the RFC by November 7, 2014, by submitting their comments on the Request for Comment page on Upon appropriate consideration of received comments, once finalized and published, the Credit Rating Methodology will update and replace the Global Banks Rating Methodology published in July 2014.» Further material is available at Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

46 María Valeria Azconegui AVP-Analyst Buenos Aires +54 (11) Juan Ledesma Padilla Associate Analyst Buenos Aires +54 (11) Celina Vansetti-Hutchins Managing Director New York Fernando Albano AVP-Analyst Buenos Aires +54 (11) Christian Pereira Associate Analyst Buenos Aires +54 (11) Daniel Marchetto Associate Analyst Buenos Aires +54 (11) Aaron Freedman Associate Managing Director Mexico City Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre

47 2014 Moody s Corporation, Moody s Investors Service, Inc., Moody s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, MOODY S ). All rights reserved. CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. ( MIS ) AND ITS AFFILIATES ARE MOODY S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS PUBLISHED BY MOODY S ( MOODY S PUBLICATIONS ) MAY INCLUDE MOODY S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MOODY S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL, FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY S OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. MOODY S PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODY S ANALYTICS, INC. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY S PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODY S PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODY S PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL, WITH DUE CARE, MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE. MOODY S CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO CONSIDER MOODY S CREDIT RATINGS OR MOODY S PUBLICATIONS IN MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER. ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW, AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. MOODY'S adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODY'S considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, MOODY S is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moody s Publications. To the extent permitted by law, MOODY S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect, special, consequential, or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information, even if MOODY S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages, including but not limited to: (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODY S. To the extent permitted by law, MOODY S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity, including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud, willful misconduct or any other type of liability that, for the avoidance of doubt, by law cannot be excluded) on the part of, or any contingency within or beyond the control of, MOODY S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers, arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information. NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY SUCH RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER. MIS, a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody s Corporation ( MCO ), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MIS have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MIS for appraisal and rating services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,500 to approximately $2,500,000. MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MIS s ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually at under the heading Shareholder Relations Corporate Governance Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy. For Australia only: Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODY S affiliate, Moody s Investors Service Pty Limited ABN AFSL and/or Moody s Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN AFSL (as applicable). This document is intended to be provided only to wholesale clients within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act By continuing to access this document from within Australia, you represent to MOODY S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a wholesale client and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to retail clients within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act MOODY S credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail clients. It would be dangerous for retail clients to make any investment decision based on MOODY S credit rating. If in doubt you should contact your financial or other professional adviser. Perspectivas del Negocio Bancario, Octubre