Perspectivas de los mercados financieros internacionales Pascal Rohner, CFA, Investment Consultant, Credit Suisse Asesoria (Panama) S.A.
Retornos de clases de activos en el 2012 y el 2013 in % -11.3-1.1 DJ-UBS Commodity TR Index -7.2 18.5 JP Morgan EM Bond Index -4.7 0.2 Barclays G7 Global Government Bond index 4.2 5.4 3.5 5.5 18.9 Barclays Global Aggregate BAA Index 28.6 GPR 250 REIT World TR Index HFRX 6.2 14.2 ML US High Yield index 10.5 10.8 Swiss Re Cat Bond TR 16.8 20.3 MSCI World TR Index -15-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 YTD 2013 Performance in USD 2012 Performance in USD Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
Estancamiento en el crecimiento de la economía global % YoY, PPP-weighted 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0-1.0-2.0-3.0-4.0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Emerging Markets Industrialized countries World GDP Growth Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, IMF, Credit Suisse / IDC
Indicadores líderes están fortaleciendo ej. índices de gestores de compra ( PMI ) Index 60 58 56 54 Expansion 52 50 48 46 44 Contraction 42 40 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Eurozone China USA Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
El crecimiento económico global se reforzará en el Global 3.6% GCC 2014 Global Real GDP Growth 2013: 2.9% 2014: 3.6% G3 Eurozone BRIC EM-8 1.9% 1.2% 6.0% 5.8% Non-Japan Asia CEE & Russia Latin America Middle East & Africa 4.1% 6.2% 2.7% 3.1% 4.2% Norway 2.5% Sweden 2.2% Poland 2.6% Mexico 3.2% Less than -1-1 to 0 0 to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 Over 8 Canada 2.2% USA 2.6% Argentina 3% Brazil 2.5% Germany UK 2% 2.2% Switzerland 2% France 0.7% Spain 0.6% Italy 0.7% Turkey 3.8% South Africa 2.7% Russian Federation 2.5% China 7.5% India 5.5% Thailand 4.5% Singapore 3.8% Indonesia 5.3% Australia 2.4% Japan 1.5% South Korea 3.5% Hong Kong 3.6% New Zealand 2.9% Source: listed forecasts Credit Suisse/ Global Research; other forecasts IMF
Inflacion sigue bajando en el primer mundo % YoY 3M-rolling, ppp-weighted 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Asia CEE & Russia Latin America Middle East & Africa United States Eurozone Source: Datatsream, Bloomberg, IMF, Credit Suisse / IDC
La tasa de desempleo en EE.UU. esta cayendo in % 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 50 54 58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02 06 10 US unemployment rate; last value: 7.3 Average Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
Final del mercado alcista de bonos que duró 30 años? % 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan 85 Jan 89 Jan 93 Jan 97 Jan 01 Jan 05 Jan 09 Jan 13 10-year US Treasury Bond US Fed Fund Rate Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
Intereses del tesoro a 10 años en el 2013 3.50 Bernanke first mentions Tapering FOMC Meeting FOMC Meeting FOMC Decision not to taper (yet) 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 ene 13 feb 13 mar 13 abr 13 may 13 jun 13 jul 13 ago 13 sep 13 oct 13 nov 13 Fuente: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC IDC 9
Bonos de mercados emergentes sufren cuando las tasas suben 280 270 260 250 240-12% 230 220 210 200 190 180 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 CEMBI Moving Average (200D) Moving Average (50D) Moving Average (30D) Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
El dólar se beneficia de la subida de tasas en EE.UU. USD/ COP 2'000 1'950 1'900 1'850 1'800 1'750 1'700 Dec 11 Apr 12 Aug 12 Dec 12 Apr 13 Aug 13 Dec 13 Apr 14 Aug 14 USD/ COP FX forward Credit Suisse forecast Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse, Credit Suisse / IDC
Monedas locales vs. dólar en el 2013 ILS CNY KRW HKD MXN HUF PLN TWD SGD THB MYR CZK PHP RUB COP CLP PEN BRL TRY INR IDR ZAR ARS -18.0-16.6-15.7-12.9-12.1-11.4-8.9-7.8-8.0-4.5-5.5-6.1-6.3-3.2-1.9-2.0 0.0-0.1-0.1-0.2 0.1 2.3 6.0-20.0-15.0-10.0-5.0 0 5.0 10.0 Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
Preferimos «high yield» sobre «mercados emergentes» in bp 2'000 1'800 1'600 1'400 1'200 1'000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Spread of Emerging Markets Bonds Spread of High Yield Bonds Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
Acciones has subido mucho desde Marzo 2009 Index (100 = 23 Sep 1990) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Nov 93 Nov 95 Nov 97 Nov 99 Nov 01 Nov 03 Nov 05 Nov 07 Nov 09 Nov 11 Nov 13 SMI DJ Euro Stoxx 50 Nikkei 225 S&P 500 MSCI World Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
Valoración no es excesiva 12-month forward P/ E 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Dow Jones Stoxx MSCI World S&P 500 MSCI Emerging Markets Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
La transformación económica de China Menos inversión y exportación, mas consumo Share of global consumption 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 US Japan Germany China India Source: Credit Suisse / IDC
Materias primas ya son atractivas para el 2014 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan 90 Jan 94 Jan 98 Jan 02 Jan 06 Jan 10 2'000 1'800 1'600 1'400 1'200 1'000 800 600 400 200 CRB Commodity Index Copper Price WT Oil Price Gold Price (rhs) Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
Hedge Funds siguen siendo buenas alternativas Index 700 600 500 CAGR* Risk** 9.9% 8.4% 400 300 200 100 0 Dec 93 Dec 95 Dec 97 Dec 99 Dec 01 Dec 03 Dec 05 Dec 07 Dec 09 Dec 11 9.5% 6.3% 8.9% 9.3% 6% 4.7% *compound annual growth rate **annualized volatility º Merger arbitrage, Distressed securities ¹ Convertible arbitrage, Market neutral, Fixed income arbitrage ² Equity long/ short, Emerging markets ³ Global macro, Managed futures Event drivenº Relative value¹ Directional² Tactical Trading³ Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
Resumen Renta Variable Enfocar en acciones cíclicas Acciones de Europa y Japón Cuidado con mercados emergentes. Preferimos consumo vs. mineras Renta Fija Mas volatilidad y menos retornos que en el pasado Necesita gestión activa, p.ej. fondos mutuos flexibles ( Total Return ) Preferimos High Yield e instrumentos híbridos (convertibles, bonos de bancos subordinados) Inversiones Alternativas Preferimos hedge funds (p.ej. equity long/short) y finca raíz
Preguntas y Respuestas Credit Suisse Asesoria (Panama) S.A. "Entidad Regulada y Supervisada por la Superintendencia del Mercado de Valores". Licencia para operar como Asesor de Inversiones. Credit Suisse Asesoría (Panama) S.A. es una entidad autorizada a ser representada en Colombia a través de la Resolución número 2005 del 2009 de la Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia
Asignación estratégica de activos y perfiles de riesgo Fixed Income Income Balanced Capital Gains Source: Credit Suisse / IDC
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